There's been a bifurcation in the restaurant industry, which is why you guys are going back and forth on this. There has been a material increase in the number of bankruptcy filings by restaurant chains, even prior to COVID. This was driven by a few factors:

1. Millennials moving away from larger chains -- millennials tend to frequent local, smaller and healthier options more than places like The Cheesecake Factory. While mega chains like Cheesecake and CPK have made it (so far), smaller guys like Texas Roadhouse have gone into bankruptcy to restructure massive debt and lease liabilities. Speaking of which...

2. Restaurants used easy money to massively over expand -- for the last decade since the financial crisis, cheap money allowed guys to open way too many locations. This saturated the market with casual dining options, and in the land rush, they signed up for terrible lease terms. With the massive supply, they couldn't raise prices and had to start running more and more promotions to drive guest counts. Meanwhile, rents were too high and they signed leases with annual increases and escalators tied to sales. So while sales went up, margins went down to discounting, hurting gross margins, and then rents went up as well. But, truthfully, they just built in dumb locations -- that's why in most restaurant BKs, you see them close a subset of 25-33% of stores that are unprofitable on a 4 wall basis. 

3. Increases in minimum wage -- Just as prices were squeezed and fixed costs were too high, labor costs were raised by higher minimum wages in a number of locations. This SLAMMED chain restaurants who couldn't raise prices because of the over supply.

4. Delivery/takeout -- shifting sales to delivery and takeout is a disaster, because those sales lack beverages, and more importantly, alcohol. The best profit margin in the place is on hard liquor. People who get delivery rarely order drinks, and most places don't allow for alcoholic beverage delivery. Also, delivery services take large fees, though those are dropping. 

So, to summarize, there has been a perfect storm. People were eating out more AND getting more delivery (cooking at home was at all time lows). But the over expansion, rising costs and dropping liquor sales slammed the industry.

4 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

There's been a bifurcation in the restaurant industry, which is why you guys are going back and forth on this. There has been a material increase in the number of bankruptcy filings by restaurant chains, even prior to COVID. This was driven by a few factors:

1. Millennials moving away from larger chains -- millennials tend to frequent local, smaller and healthier options more than places like The Cheesecake Factory. While mega chains like Cheesecake and CPK have made it (so far), smaller guys like Texas Roadhouse have gone into bankruptcy to restructure massive debt and lease liabilities. Speaking of which...

2. Restaurants used easy money to massively over expand -- for the last decade since the financial crisis, cheap money allowed guys to open way too many locations. This saturated the market with casual dining options, and in the land rush, they signed up for terrible lease terms. With the massive supply, they couldn't raise prices and had to start running more and more promotions to drive guest counts. Meanwhile, rents were too high and they signed leases with annual increases and escalators tied to sales. So while sales went up, margins went down to discounting, hurting gross margins, and then rents went up as well. But, truthfully, they just built in dumb locations -- that's why in most restaurant BKs, you see them close a subset of 25-33% of stores that are unprofitable on a 4 wall basis. 

3. Increases in minimum wage -- Just as prices were squeezed and fixed costs were too high, labor costs were raised by higher minimum wages in a number of locations. This SLAMMED chain restaurants who couldn't raise prices because of the over supply.

4. Delivery/takeout -- shifting sales to delivery and takeout is a disaster, because those sales lack beverages, and more importantly, alcohol. The best profit margin in the place is on hard liquor. People who get delivery rarely order drinks, and most places don't allow for alcoholic beverage delivery. Also, delivery services take large fees, though those are dropping. 

So, to summarize, there has been a perfect storm. People were eating out more AND getting more delivery (cooking at home was at all time lows). But the over expansion, rising costs and dropping liquor sales slammed the industry.

Thank you! 

Thanks for the explanation v.   I believe that to be true with the chains.  We'll see how the main street independent owners/operators do.  I hope OK.  There's 2 in my hometown I haven't even been to yet.

Right before the virus started we saw a Burger King and a Taco Bell go up.  We aren't sure they are going to make it.  We have a huge Hispanic population.   Some run their own restaurants and they have food trucks either parked or going farm to farm everyday.  Why would Taco Bell come here when you can get a taco every 100 ft.!!??  There was already a TB in KSQ so it made no sense whatsoever to me to have another within a 10 mile radius.    

Then, when they close up shop and leave there's a brand new building just sitting there.  It's dumb when we already have vacant commercial property.  I wish the local authorities would not let them build until the shopping centers are full.

4 hours ago, mr_hunt said:

barr's gonna go after local governments if they shut things down too long for his liking. 

repugs are immoral ghouls.

I heard from Repugs that Grannie and Pop-pop are willing to sacrifice themselves to the alter of the economy.

8 minutes ago, DiPros said:

Thanks for the explanation v.   I believe that to be true with the chains.  We'll see how the main street independent owners/operators do.  I hope OK.  There's 2 in my hometown I haven't even been to yet.

Right before the virus started we saw a Burger King and a Taco Bell go up.  We aren't sure they are going to make it.  We have a huge Hispanic population.   Some run their own restaurants and they have food trucks either parked or going farm to farm everyday.  Why would Taco Bell come here when you can get a taco every 100 ft.!!??  There was already a TB in KSQ so it made no sense whatsoever to me to have another within a 10 mile radius.    

Then, when they close up shop and leave there's a brand new building just sitting there.  It's dumb when we already have vacant commercial property.  I wish the local authorities would not let them build until the shopping centers are full.

I was saying it's mostly chain restaurants I just didn't explain it very well lol. Then again I assumed people knew what I was talking about so I failed twice. Lol. 

The one strip mall  by me has a subway and 2 independent restaurants and a liquor store. Within 6 months the subway closed and the 2 independent restaurants are jam packed every night especially during the summer cause they have a deck to eat outside on. Now they are both struggling because they didn't have a take out or delivery option before so now people assume they are closed. Which they are not but, that's what happened since they didn't offer those things before. 

The number of deaths directly tied to COVID 19 has been vastly overestimated. Anyone who dies with a positive test is labeled a death because of COVID 19. So, if someone with terminal stage 4 cancer dies without any symptoms of COVID 19, but tests positive the day before he dies, he's counted as a COVID 19 death. If you die with COVID 19, you are listed as death because of COVID 19. Why are we padding the numbers? Some doctors are being pressured to list deaths as COVID 19 even when it's not clear why the patient died. 

Dr. Dan Erickson Part 2

Wake up, people.

1 hour ago, vikas83 said:

4. Delivery/takeout -- shifting sales to delivery and takeout is a disaster, because those sales lack beverages, and more importantly, alcohol. The best profit margin in the place is on hard liquor. People who get delivery rarely order drinks, and most places don't allow for alcoholic beverage delivery. Also, delivery services take large fees, though those are dropping. 

This one is huge.  In some dry states and BYOB hot spots like Chicago the profit model isn't reliant on alcohol sales, but the major chains like the Chick n Pete's and most restaurants in most cities food sales basically pay the bills while alcohol sales are where the they actually make money.

3 minutes ago, Abracadabra said:

The number of deaths directly tied to COVID 19 has been vastly overestimated. Anyone who dies with a positive test is labeled a death because of COVID 19. So, if someone with terminal stage 4 cancer dies without any symptoms of COVID 19, but tests positive the day before he dies, he's counted as a COVID 19 death. If you die with COVID 19, you are listed as death because of COVID 19. Why are we padding the numbers? Some doctors are being pressured to list deaths as COVID 19 even when it's not clear why the patient died. 

Hi, guess who is wrong? That's right, YOU!

 

It seems that after you subtract COVID deaths, 15,000 more people dropped dead in March in 2020 than in 2019. Sort of looks like COVID deaths are being HUGELY under-reported.

1 minute ago, Toastrel said:

Hi, guess who is wrong? That's right, YOU!

 

It seems that after you subtract COVID deaths, 15,000 more people dropped dead in March in 2020 than in 2019. Sort of looks like COVID deaths are being HUGELY under-reported.

People who died died of COVID 19? That's some real science there.

16 minutes ago, Abracadabra said:

The number of deaths directly tied to COVID 19 has been vastly overestimated. Anyone who dies with a positive test is labeled a death because of COVID 19. So, if someone with terminal stage 4 cancer dies without any symptoms of COVID 19, but tests positive the day before he dies, he's counted as a COVID 19 death. If you die with COVID 19, you are listed as death because of COVID 19. Why are we padding the numbers? Some doctors are being pressured to list deaths as COVID 19 even when it's not clear why the patient died. 

oh, yeah, I'm sure that the number of people who die WITH COVID-19 but not FROM COVID-19 is a huge statistical miss here.

2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

oh, yeah, I'm sure that the number of people who die WITH COVID-19 but not FROM COVID-19 is a huge statistical miss here.

Why are doctors being pressured to make the numbers look worse than they are? I think you know why. If the % of infected who die is extremely low, it'll become obvious that this continued lock down is BS. 

1 minute ago, Abracadabra said:

Why are doctors being pressured to make the numbers look worse than they are? I think you know why. If the % of infected who die is extremely low, it'll become obvious that this continued lock down is BS. 

Also, 9/11 was an inside job and the Earth is flat.

2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

oh, yeah, I'm sure that the number of people who die WITH COVID-19 but not FROM COVID-19 is a huge statistical miss here.

It's going to be pretty impossible to get a real number of COVID deaths.  There are many who had COVID died of something else.  There are also many who died of COVID, was never detected or autopsied.  And then there are many who died of something else, but mainly because they were afraid to go to hospital and get COVID.

 

So take the COVID number with a grain of salt, it certainly has a margin of error either way of at least 10%.  But the number that really defines the tragedy and that is not subject to all this mess is the increase in overall deaths for the time period.

 

That's the real number and it's going to be much higher than the official COVID death total.

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Also, 9/11 was an inside job and the Earth is flat.

 

Typical response. The facts are uncomfortable so out with the non sequiturs.

17 minutes ago, Abracadabra said:

People who died died of COVID 19? That's some real science there.

Last year in March X number of people died. Ok?

This year, in March, after you remove COVID deaths from the total, 15,000 MORE PEOPLE DIED IN MARCH THAN LAST YEAR.

Think hard - what changed between this March and last March?

1 minute ago, dawkins4prez said:

It's going to be pretty impossible to get a real number of COVID deaths.  There are many who had COVID died of something else.  There are also many who died of COVID, was never detected or autopsied.  And then there are many who died of something else, but mainly because they were afraid to go to hospital and get COVID.

 

So take the COVID number with a grain of salt, it certainly has a margin of error either way of at least 10%.  But the number that really defines the tragedy and that is not subject to all this mess is the increase in overall deaths for the time period.

 

That's the real number and it's going to be much higher than the official COVID death total.

The COVID number is flawed, though probably the closest thing we have to a real measure of the impact of this virus.

People routinely die from complications of a virus, not necessarily the virus itself. This is the same way many who contract HIV die from pneumonia, not "AIDS" directly. 

People who think they "know the real truth!" because we're relying on coroners and medical examiners to make some kind of call as to whether someone died from COVID-19 (either directly or through complications thereof), and who may end up getting some right and some wrong, are foolish conspiracy-minded individuals who should be rejected as such.

It's not unlikely that we were undercounting the number of deaths in February and March for which COVID-19 played a role. It's also not unlikely that we're err'ing to the side of caution in many cases in April in order to protected against undercounting the impact of a pandemic we're living through right now.

And it's insulting to those who are trying to do everything they can to inform about where and for whom this virus is most threatening to suggest that they're part of some broad conspiracy to "continue a BS lock-down". Those people are f'ing morons and should not be coddled. Their opinions are not valid. They epitomize the "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" mentality.

5 minutes ago, Abracadabra said:

Typical response. The facts are uncomfortable so out with the non sequiturs.

yeah, I'm just so uncomfortable under the might of your intellect.

 

This article is...concerning.

 

1 minute ago, Toastrel said:

Last year in March X number of people died. Ok?

This year, in March, after you remove COVID deaths from the total, 15,000 MORE PEOPLE DIED IN MARCH THAN LAST YEAR.

Think hard - what changed between this March and last March?

Let me see.....hummmmm, ok.

Millions of people lost their jobs. Millions are afraid to go to the hospital and die prematurely. Millions suffer from abusive circumstances attributed to stay at home orders.

But I'm sure the increase in deaths can be a result only of the COVI 19 

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

The COVID number is flawed, though probably the closest thing we have to a real measure of the impact of this virus.

People routinely die from complications of a virus, not necessarily the virus itself. This is the same way many who contract HIV die from pneumonia, not "AIDS" directly. 

People who think they "know the real truth!" because we're relying on coroners and medical examiners to make some kind of call as to whether someone died from COVID-19 (either directly or through complications thereof), and who may end up getting some right and some wrong, are foolish conspiracy-minded individuals who should be rejected as such.

It's not unlikely that we were undercounting the number of deaths in February and March for which COVID-19 played a role. It's also not unlikely that we're err'ing to the side of caution in many cases in April in order to protected against undercounting the impact of a pandemic we're living through right now.

And it's insulting to those who are trying to do everything they can to inform about where and for whom this virus is most threatening to suggest that they're part of some broad conspiracy to "continue a BS lock-down". Those people are f'ing morons and should not be coddled. Their opinions are not valid. They epitomize the "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" mentality.

Saddest of all is how these death totals are going to be politicized in such an ugly way.  I told ya'll this was going to be the Trumpbots trench warfare defense of the POTUS: attack the death numbers, because that's exactly what he did in Puerto Rico after Maria.  They are going to make case after case that the COVID numbers are exaggerated and they are going to prey on the grey areas.  If that isn't enough they will then look at the indisputable increase of deaths for the time period and blame it on the media crazed hysteria instead of COVID.

 

I've already got Trumpbots hitting me with memes blaming US for all the fuss about Trump's injection idiocy.  These guys are way off the deep end and ready to drink the koala aid.  You are going to have to accept that they simply do not live in reality.

3 minutes ago, Abracadabra said:

Let me see.....hummmmm, ok.

Millions of people lost their jobs. Millions are afraid to go to the hospital and die prematurely. Millions suffer from abusive circumstances attributed to stay at home orders.

But I'm sure the increase in deaths can be a result only of the COVI 19 

And there it is.  The liberals killed them, not COVID.

6 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

It's also not unlikely that we're err'ing to the side of caution in many cases in April in order to protected against undercounting the impact of a pandemic we're living through right now.

 

😂

Ummmm, yea

39 minutes ago, Abracadabra said:

Dr. Dan Erickson Part 2

Wake up, people.

I'm not sure the camera needed social distancing 

3 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

Saddest of all is how these death totals are going to be politicized in such an ugly way.  I told ya'll this was going to be the Trumpbots trench warfare defense of the POTUS: attack the death numbers, because that's exactly what he did in Puerto Rico after Maria.  They are going to make case after case that the COVID numbers are exaggerated and they are going to prey on the grey areas.  If that isn't enough they will then look at the indisputable increase of deaths for the time period and blame it on the media crazed hysteria instead of COVID.

 

I've already got Trumpbots hitting me with memes blaming US for all the fuss about Trump's injection idiocy.  These guys are way off the deep end and ready to drink the koala aid.  You are going to have to accept that they simply do not live in reality.

And there it is.  The liberals killed them, not COVID.

Not defending Trump.

I happen to believe we're over-reacting to this situation and that will lead to more suffering than necessary. BTW, it's those at the bottom of the economic scale, those who tend to vote democrat, who will suffer the most in a depression. You so called liberals are supposed to give a damn about people at the bottom. It's clear now that you don't give a crap about poor people but only about making political points against Trump. Sick!

1 minute ago, Abracadabra said:

Not defending Trump.

I happen to believe we're over-reacting to this situation and that will lead to more suffering than necessary. BTW, it's those at the bottom of the economic scale, those who tend to vote democrat, who will suffer the most in a depression. You so called liberals are supposed to give a damn about people at the bottom. It's clear now that you don't give a crap about poor people but only about making political points against Trump. Sick!

So the only way to show people you care is forcing them back to work in the midst of a pandemic?

Just now, Dave Moss said:

So the only way to show people you care is forcing them back to work in the midst of a pandemic?

Not force. Allow. People are forced to stay in doors.