August 10, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said: They played all their greatest hit so a two song set ?
August 10, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Alpha_TATEr said: so a two song set ? I think "hit" was singular on purpose.
August 10, 20205 yr Just now, Paul852 said: I think "hit" was singular on purpose. and i cant go for that disgusting display of disrespect by not acknowledging their monkee's cover, im a believer.
August 10, 20205 yr 40 minutes ago, Mike030270 said: I've only been saying that I've seen it from liberals as well I am not aware of liberal Mayors and governors doing so, but if they are, then they are morons too. Areas with high infection rates shouldn't re-open schools.
August 10, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, vikas83 said: I am not aware of liberal Mayors and governors doing so, but if they are, then they are morons too. Areas with high infection rates shouldn't re-open schools. They keep saying this but where are the news stories of all the Democrats sending kids back to school in-person?
August 10, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Paul852 said: They keep saying this but where are the news stories of all the Democrats sending kids back to school in-person? To be fair, I don't follow it that closely. Don't have kids, so don't really care. I believe in LA they are staying home. EDIT: I know Cuomo said schools can open if infection rate is below 5%, and if plan approved by state. Decision still up to local government. But that is based on data and science, not just screaming to open schools.
August 10, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Paul852 said: They keep saying this but where are the news stories of all the Democrats sending kids back to school in-person? Nevada is pushing for it. Aside from there, I am not sure.
August 10, 20205 yr 12 minutes ago, vikas83 said: I am not aware of liberal Mayors and governors doing so, but if they are, then they are morons too. Areas with high infection rates shouldn't re-open schools. I don't think we should open schools but I understand why some families want to. Not everyone can handle the online schooling I think it'll be disastrous in some places. I just don't think it's possible for teachers and school administrators to keep kids from doing things they aren't supposed to during the pandemic
August 10, 20205 yr 14 minutes ago, vikas83 said: To be fair, I don't follow it that closely. Don't have kids, so don't really care. I believe in LA they are staying home. EDIT: I know Cuomo said schools can open if infection rate is below 5%, and if plan approved by state. Decision still up to local government. But that is based on data and science, not just screaming to open schools. 11 minutes ago, BBE said: Nevada is pushing for it. Aside from there, I am not sure. I honestly think we need to just chalk it up to Kz being stupid and move on from this nonsense.
August 10, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Mike030270 said: I don't think we should open schools but I understand why some families want to. Not everyone can handle the online schooling I think it'll be disastrous in some places. I just don't think it's possible for teachers and school administrators to keep kids from doing things they aren't supposed to during the pandemic Most definitely. I think all of us want to. It's just that some of us understand that this moment in history requires a little sacrifice and living with a sucky situation. And others want to pretend it's not happening at all. "SCHOOLS MUST REOPEN!"
August 10, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, vikas83 said: So we're just going to ignore that the biggest proponents of opening schools are members of the administration, led by the President? and parents who I guess believe this thing is all a hoax, or who are at least willing to gamble with the virus so they can go back to work.
August 10, 20205 yr 32 minutes ago, vikas83 said: I am not aware of liberal Mayors and governors doing so, but if they are, then they are morons too. Areas with high infection rates shouldn't re-open schools. it's more about people who feel entitled to their kids being babysat while they go to work. I don't think it's exclusively liberal/trumpist, though I would say republicans are more likely to dismiss the risks of COVID-19 than liberals in general. but there are plenty of liberal parents in my area who want their kids back in school bad enough that it's overriding the risk.
August 10, 20205 yr 17 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: it's more about people who feel entitled to their kids being babysat while they go to work. I don't think it's exclusively liberal/trumpist, though I would say republicans are more likely to dismiss the risks of COVID-19 than liberals in general. but there are plenty of liberal parents in my area who want their kids back in school bad enough that it's overriding the risk. That's what is going on with my area this whole school district is littered with trump propaganda. It's an area with a lot of money and entitlement. I don't know a single person in this area that isn't a republican. They are going back full classes and are not worried one bit that they can't properly distance 40 kids per classroom
August 10, 20205 yr this was from the latest Bulwark newsletter, so I don't have a direct link to this content though it does link to other conversations: Quote On Friday we talked about how the much-maligned COVID models have actually been pretty helpful in understanding the spread and death toll from the coronavirus. Mark Panaggio, a big-brain math guy who works with data for a living, wrote in to put some meat on that bone. Panaggio pulled the predictions for the big-12 COVID models and ran them against observed results to see how well they did. He shared some charts from his observations and is generously letting me use them here. So let's take a look. Okay. So here's what we're looking at. On the x-axis we have the models and the y-axis we have the average percentage errors in their predictions for new deaths. The different color bars show you how well the predictions were four weeks out, three weeks out, two weeks out, and one week out. What should immediately jump out at you is that 9 of the 12 models had error rates that were really low: mostly < 20 percent. Two of the models—from Johns Hopkins and Columbia—were not nearly as good. The University of Arizona was somewhere in the middle. Panaggio helpfully put the data in a chart, too, in case you see numbers better that way: The error rate for some of these models—the IHME, Los Alamos, UMass, U Texas, and Younyang Gu—are mostly in the low teens, which is wildly impressive. The Ensemble model is like the RealClear Politics polling average: It's the average of a whole bunch of models. And the Ensemble error rates were quite low, too. So if you were just looking at that, you would have had a very clear picture of how the pandemic would progress. I don't mean to keep beating up on Richard Epstein, but he's been unrepentantly stupid on this, so I will: This idiot predicted that total U.S. deaths would be between 500 and 5,000. Which means that his error rate (so far) is between 3,200 percent and 32,000 percent. There's one other aspect of the models that's worth looking at, which is the success of their confidence intervals. Models give a spread of predicted outcomes. This is called a confidence interval. In general, this spread is constructed by the model believing that 95 percent of the time, the actual result will fall within this range. How did the models do with their confidence intervals? Even in the midst of a pandemic with no modern precedent, five of them were bang-on almost 100 percent of the time. (UMass, take a bow.) Now, the confidence interval tells you something different than the straight prediction. What it's telling you is how confident the model is in itself. The UMass and Los Alamos models were giving themselves wider intervals than, say, U Texas and IHME, which tells you that even though their predictions were almost equivalent in terms of accuracy, the IHME and U Texas models were more aggressive in their certainty. But again: Look at the Ensemble. If you had been looking at the averages of the various models and taking into account their confidence intervals, you would have had an almost perfect sense of what the next four weeks were going to look like at any point during the pandemic. Keep all of this in mind the next time someone tries to tell you, "No one could have known" or "The models were all junk" or "Why should we listen to the supposed experts when they couldn't even get their models right." None of those things are true. This isn't magic. The people who were paying attention to the data had a clear sense of what was happening on the ground. It was the people paying attention to Twitter or Conservatism Inc. or the president of the United States who had no idea what was coming.
August 10, 20205 yr 6 hours ago, Dave Moss said: Disagree. America’s problem is that we listen to the dumbest people instead of the smartest. BS. I never listen to Dr. Philly. F minus minus MINUS!
August 10, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, NOTW said: What level of spreaders are these: basic, mega or super? hmmmm
August 10, 20205 yr 7 minutes ago, paco said: BS. I never listen to Dr. Philly. Philly Philly (or Philly Special) - great Dr. Philly - not so great.
August 10, 20205 yr Wait, so 250,000 bikers went all the way to South Dakota during a pandemic to see... ...Smashmouth???
August 10, 20205 yr Weekly update from the Doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/08/8920-covid-19-update.html Football I have written on several occasions concerning the dangers associated with playing football during this viral pandemic. A microcosm of greater society's inability to accept the fact that close encounters without masks is dangerous. Motivations are varied, personal freedoms, the desire to enjoy life as it was before the virus, money, all ignoring the reality of the pandemic. While the NHL and the NBA have "bubbled" their leagues, creating a safe environment (as long as the players don't violate the rules of the "bubble" protocol) where the chance of transmitting the disease is exceedingly small. No football organization, at any level has attempted to replicate the efforts made by the NBA and the NHL. It is farcical of men of supposed stature (College and Professional Football Coaches and the Deans of Colleges) to talk about making football "safe". It is hypocritical to hear them talk of their concern for their players. Their concern is for money. There is no making football safe, there is only waiting for the inevitable disaster. Brady Feeney, a freshman lineman for Indiana University suffered a rocky course with Covid. He may have long term heart problems. Although he did not catch the virus while playing football he has grabbed national attention. and is a good example of the risks that big men face when they catch the virus. I have seen heavy young people die of this disease, but they weren't football players of caliber so they didn't count but to their families, and generated little publicity. If you put asymptomatic carriers in the locker rooms and out on the field coughing and grunting into each others faces, the disease will be transmitted and someone is going to get horribly ill. TESTING We can not test our way out of this pandemic. Testing is consuming large quantities of financial resources. Antibody testing without knowing the significance of antibodies is totally worthless. We do not know the significance of antibodies at this time!! The FDA continues to grant emergency use authorization (EUA) to new PCR type tests which are less accurate than the original RT-PCR test. When testing millions of people, a 3% decrease in accuracy means that thousands of people are getting false information. Some of these tests are probably far less accurate than a 3% variance. EUA means that the entity has not gone through the typical validation process that is normally required. It does appear that some rapid test, home kits have now been given EUA. If utilized in great numbers they will result in thousands of people mingling in society with the false impression that they do not have the disease. In public health testing centers, when you cannot get people to wear masks and/or distance why did anyone think that people would quarantine awaiting the results of their tests??? The only beneficiaries of this chaos are the companies involved in manufacturing the kts and running the tests. ENFORCEMENT There is not a SINGLE Governor in the United States who has promulgated enforcement policies with meaning. Why is that? At this time, the only action that will reverse our present course and bend the curve down to a point where this virus becomes an annoyance rather than a catastrophe is strict enforcement of mitigation mandates. For all of the above "there are no dishonest corporations or greedy trusts , only dishonest individuals within these organizations who must be held accountable." (WW circa 1908) NEJM, 8-1-20 EVALUATION OF THE mRNA VACCINE AGAINST SARS-CoV-2 IN NONHUMAN PRIMATES K. S CORBET, MD AND OTHERS mRNA-1273 is a vaccine encoding the perfusion stabilized spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. I believe this is the Moderna vaccine candidate. A total of 24 monkey were entered into the study. The monkeys were vaccinated intramuscularly at 0 and 4 weeks with either 10 or 100 mcg of the vaccine or placebo by random selection. At 8 weeks (4 weeks after the second vaccination) all animals were infected with SARS-CoV-2. The virus was introduced into the trachea in a 3 ml. volume. There was a dose dependent increase in the IgG levels and neutralizing activity. T-cell numbers increased in 4 of 8 of the monkeys given 10 mcg of the vaccine and 7 of 8 of the monkeys given 100mcg of the vaccine. Two days after viral inoculation only one of 8 monkeys in each group had detectable virus.whereas all of the control monkey had virus detected. There were mild inflammatory changes noted in the lungs of the 10 mcg group, no substantial inflammation was noted in the 100 mcg group. One monkey in the 10 mcg had a positive RT-PCR test. No monkey in the 100 mcg group had a positive RT-PCR test. NEJM 8-1-20 REOPENING PRIMARY SCHOOLS DURING THE PANDEMIC Maria Levinson, M.D. Under ordinary circumstances about 40 million children would be entering the prekindergarten through 8th grade classrooms this year. In the prekindergarten to 5th grade, 27 million. Until these children physically return to school full time many will lose out on essential educational, social and developmental benefits and the economy nor the healthcare system will be able to return to full strength given parents caretaking responsibilities. It is apparent that children under 10 are less frequently infected than older children and adults, and when they are infected, the consequences are much less severe. Looking at community transmission from countries that have reopened schools or never closed them, we see that Covid-19 outbreaks in high schools in France, Israel and New Zealand did not extend to nearby elementary schools. Case numbers have remained flat in the Netherlands and decreased in Denmark during school reopening. At risk children (children with comorbidities) were exempted from in person learning. Distancing was not enforced. Countries that have reduced or controlled transmission of the virus have done so through stringent control measures, closure of non-essential indoor work and recreational spaces along with with universal masks - something that we have not accomplished here. Playing into the this data is the fact that these countries all had much lower prevalence rates than we do currently, an important consideration when assessing risk of transmission. For children with comorbidities (such as those who can't wear a mask because of underlying pulmonary disease), in person schooling should not be a consideration. Those children should be isolated from indoor gatherings of groups, for their own protection and for the protection of other children. Approximately 97% of the children in the US who have died of Covid-19 had comorbidities. Currently there is only one Green state (<1 case/100,000 population/day) Maine, where school opening should entail VERY little risk There are several yellow states ( <10 cases/100,000 population/day) Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Montana, Alaska, Pennsylvania and possibly some others. There may be counties in these states which are green and would present VERY little risk to school reopening. JAMA 8-3-20 CONVERSATIONS WITH HOWARD BAUCHNER,MD, Editor Guest - Dr. Anthony Fauci Fundamental essential elements for blunting increasing case numbers or preventing a surge. 1, Consistent, correct wearing of a mask 2. Avoid crowds 3. Distance (6 feet) 4. Avoid bars 5. Outdoor activity is always safer than indoor activity 6. Good hand hygiene Alternatives to masks - goggles and face shields. If aerosolization (as opposed to droplets)represents even a small aspect of transmission, it makes indoor activities more dangerous and masks more important There was a wishy washy discussion of the difficulty with mask mandates - a good example of why we are in the predicament that we are in. We are reluctant to offend the sensibilities of morons, who then act as conduits for the disease and make it very difficult to reopen schools or bring the economy back to where it should be. JAMA 8-6-20 CLINICAL COURSE IN MOLECULAR VIRAL SHEDDING AMONG ASYMPTOMATIC AND SYMPTOMATIC PATIENTS WITH SARS-CoV-2 INFECTION IN A COMMUNITY TREATMENT CENTER IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA S. Lee MD Of 303 patients with RT-PCR proven Covid disease, 36% were asymptomatic at the time of testing. The cycle threshold values (a surrogate for viral load) were similar in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Meaning, asymptomatic people are as infectious as those with symptoms. NUMBERS - compared to the week ending 8/2/20 Deaths - 162,480 - now, mostly attributable to those who refuse to wear masks and distance Alabama - 6% increase in bed utilization, 31% increase in new cases California - 13% decrease in bed utilization, 21% decrease in new cases Connecticut - 9% decrease in bed utilization, 51% decrease in new cases Florida - 15% decrease in bed utilization, 39% decrease in new cases Georgia - 7% decrease in bed utilization, 15% decrease in new cases Illinois - 18% decrease in bed utilization, 21% increase in new cases Iowa - 5% decrease in bed utilization, 0.5% increase in new cases Louisiana - 9% decrease in bed utilization, 3.4% increase in new cases Maryland - 13% decrease in bked utilization, 23% decrease in new cases Michigan - 4% decrease in bed utilization, 5% decrease in new cases New Jersey - 21% decrease in bed utilization, 22% decrease in new cases New York - 1% decrease in bed utilization, 0.4% increase in new cases Ohio- 10% decrease in bed utilization, 13% decrease in new cases Pennsylvania - 9% increase in bed utilization, 18% decrease in new cases South Carolina - 4% decrease in bed utilization, 18% decrease in new cases Texas - 12% decrease in bed utilization, 4% increase in new cases Wisconsin - 11% increase in bed utilization, 3% decrease in new cases Have a good day Live Safely Be well
August 10, 20205 yr You're all in luck, it's a daily double! https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/08/81020-covid-19-update.html REPORT BY THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF PEDIATRICS AND CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION This report provides data on the rate of infection with Covid-19 in "children" in the last two weeks of July. It reports that 97,000 children tested positive for Covid in the United States in the last two weeks of July. In the United States during that period of time there were 1,122,294 new cases of Covid. "Children" represented 8.6% of that total. "Children" is variously defined as 0 - 14, 0 -17, 0 - 19, 0- 24 by the various states reporting. We now know that children older than 14 will probably get infected at the same rate as older children and adults, but the disease severity and hospitalization rate is reduced compared to adults. Florida and Utah defined "children" as 0 - 14 and reported their data that way. Florida has has 3,512,139 children and this group represented 5.5% of the total positive tests in the state during the last two weeks of July. Utah has 774,764 children and this group represented 7.2% of the total positive tests in the state during that period. Florida tested 942,845 people in the last two weeks of July and had 188,399 new cases of Covid during that time. Twenty percent of those tested were positive. Utah tested 104,389 people during that period and had 9718 new cases of Covid during that time. Nine percent of those tested were positive. Florida alone accounted for 11% of the positive tests in "children". I think the American Academy Report needs to be read very carefully for proper perspective. The data emphasizes the importance of local prevalence when making decisions about reopening schools. This data includes many "children" returning to College campuses. It should also emphasize to parents the risks inherent in unprotected crowds. If schools can enforce dress codes they certainly should be able to enforce mask mandates. I thought it was important to rapidly respond to the articles in the lay press which did not dive into the facts of the report. Live Safely Be well
August 10, 20205 yr I'm being cautiously optimistic about Florida. Since its peak of over 15,000 new cases in one day on July 12, the new infection levels have been gradually decreasing. We have been under 10,000 new cases per day since July 30th; with the past week or so hovering between 4600 to 8000 new cases per day. Yesterday around 6200 new cases and today under 5,000. This is thanks in part (imo) to the fact that the majority of people in the most populated areas seem to be taking it seriously and are wearing face-masks. The biggest declines are in those areas. The more rural areas where they are not "mandated" might be slowly increasing. (According to what I heard on the radio this morning. I couldn't find stats to back up what they said). Seems as if Florida could become a "microcosm" of the U.S.
August 11, 20205 yr 5 hours ago, Phillyterp85 said: If you put asymptomatic carriers in the locker rooms and out on the field coughing and grunting into each others faces, the disease will be transmitted and someone is going to get horribly ill. During the Spanish Flu of 1916 they tried like hell to infect others with "the virus" by those with "the virus" with no success at all, this is documented in "The Invisible Rainbow". So if this is in fact a virus one can cough and grunt all they want, there will be no transmission.
August 11, 20205 yr Another update from the doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/08/81120-covid-19-update.html New Zealand has now enjoyed 101 days without community spread of Covid-19. Several weeks ago they experienced an outbreak after several visitors from England, traveling to see a terminal loved one, were granted compassionate exemption to the country's quarantine protocol. Two of these individuals carried the virus and it spread to nine others before being quickly contained and isolated by the strong work of the New Zealand Public Health Department. After that unfortunate experience, Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister, declared there would be no further exemptions to quarantine protocol. The entire country is "open". Bars, restaurants, dancing, parties and work places have all returned to normal without masks (which are now part of people's emergency kits) or distancing. Anyone returning to New Zealand, or visiting New Zealand, must undergo a period of 14 days of managed isolation if symptom free, or quarantine if symptomatic, in government run facilities. The only exceptions are those that have medical problems which require hospitalization. These wonderful results started with strict adherence by the citizens of New Zealand with mitigation policies. Freedoms, which would you choose? Live Safely, Be Well
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