November 16, 20204 yr 4 hours ago, Dave Moss said: They timed it so Trump would lose the election. So sorry, man. I’m going to spend the rest of my life wondering how you failed to deliver NC given the tilted playing field 😁
November 16, 20204 yr 10 minutes ago, SPIDER-MAN said: My mom's sister, who was essentially her best friend, died around this time 10 years ago. It's still hard for her, but she says it does get better. I'm glad your kids don't live far, My brother will come up from Virginia and it will be my parents, myself and my bro. That's what it is usually. Christmas will be very small this year to. But we don't mind. The best gift of all would be this vaccine being ready (per Fauci) by mid-December and it actually working. The vaccine(s) will be given an EUA by the end of the year, but only for the most at risk populations like first responders, health-care workers, etc. The rest of us won't be getting it until Spring/Summer most likely. And if you have kids, my guess is they won't get it earlier than the Winter.
November 16, 20204 yr Speaking of vaccines, this is the kind of stuff they don't want you to hear about.
November 16, 20204 yr 15 minutes ago, DrPhilly said: I’m going to spend the rest of my life wondering how you failed to deliver NC given the tilted playing field 😁 Rural NC is really pro-Trump. I still see people driving around with Trump 2020 flags on their vehicles and displayed in their yards 2 weeks after the election. one flag I see a lot is "Jesus is my savior, but Trump is my president.” Also, I only voted once.
November 16, 20204 yr New Philly measures are pretty strict...... https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/coronavirus/philadelphia-targets-indoor-gatherings-gyms-and-dining-with-new-covid-19-restrictions/2599101/
November 16, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, EaglesRocker97 said: I know people want to see their families, but we need to look at the bigger picture: It's worth giving up this Thanksgiving to make sure you have future Thanksgivings with your loved ones. Our traditional gathering is around 12-15 people coming from all over, which includes my octogenarian grandparents. We all agreed it was the right decision to cancel that this year. Instead, my gf and I are just going to have dinner with my parents on that day. They live up the street from me and have been working from home, as have I, so we'll all more or less be able to isolate for two weeks prior. The one variable is my gf working, but the four of us have occasionally and briefly gathered for meals over the course of the pandemic, so this is basically just maintaining the same "bubble" that we've had all along. So, if you're going to gather, keep it as small as possible (4-5 people max). Personally, I have often complained about the runaround and stress of the holidays and said "One year I'd like to just stay close to home and have a low-key holiday," so it looks like I'm getting that this year. I can deal. Apparently in Phialdlephia they say no visiting other households,but that can't be enforced
November 16, 20204 yr https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/11/16/south-dakota-nurse-intv-newday-vpx.cnn A South Dakota emergency room nurse says she has talked to several people who are on death's door and they STILL don't believe they have the virus. She said some patients have been asked if they want to talk to a loved one while their oxygen levels are plummeting and they say "No, because I am going to be fine." Boom, they're gone. I don't even know what to say about that type of defiance. It just blows my mind that people are living in an alternate reality THAT much.
November 16, 20204 yr 8 minutes ago, SPIDER-MAN said: https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/11/16/south-dakota-nurse-intv-newday-vpx.cnn A South Dakota emergency room nurse says she has talked to several people who are on death's door and they STILL don't believe they have the virus. She said some patients have been asked if they want to talk to a loved one while their oxygen levels are plummeting and they say "No, because I am going to be fine." Boom, they're gone. I don't even know what to say about that type of defiance. It just blows my mind that people are living in an alternate reality THAT much. The reality is viruses are nature's way of keeping the population check, natural selection, nature has a way of getting rid of the weak
November 16, 20204 yr 16 minutes ago, SPIDER-MAN said: https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/11/16/south-dakota-nurse-intv-newday-vpx.cnn A South Dakota emergency room nurse says she has talked to several people who are on death's door and they STILL don't believe they have the virus. She said some patients have been asked if they want to talk to a loved one while their oxygen levels are plummeting and they say "No, because I am going to be fine." Boom, they're gone. I don't even know what to say about that type of defiance. It just blows my mind that people are living in an alternate reality THAT much. Yeah, and I thought flat earther's were bad. The Cult members are far, far more detatched from reality. Whatever the Organge God says is the truth no matter what.
November 16, 20204 yr 30 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: The reality is viruses are nature's way of keeping the population check, natural selection, nature has a way of getting rid of the weak and stupid fyp
November 16, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said: typical lazy democrat. I mean he only had to vote once - the vote counters added all the extra Biden votes for him after the fact. DUH
November 16, 20204 yr New restrictions laid out here today. Max 8 people for any gathering for things like theaters, sports, concerts, etc. Restaurants/bars must fully uphold the distancing rules and no alcohol served after 10pm. Strong recommendations that no private gatherings are held at all and that people only meet with those in their own household. Strong recommendation against use of any public transportation unless absolutely necessary. Work from home if at all possible.
November 16, 20204 yr So after Trump is no longer in power, is Dr. Atlas essentially going to be laughed out of the medical field? If you're the hospital that employs him, do you even want him back?
November 16, 20204 yr A risk assessment calculator based on current data using your event size as estimation of the chances that at least one person in attendance is already positive. Obviously, it does not factor in personal habits of those in attendance, and it makes some aggressive assumptions on total number of circulating cases (5x higher than reported) which I'm not crazy about, but it does illustrate that the risk could be higher than many may be assuming if you're having 20+ adults over for thanksgiving. https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.Based on seroprevalence data and increases in testing, by default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported (5:1 ascertainment bias). In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher. We are evaluating the inclusion of lower ascertainment biases based on increased testing.
November 16, 20204 yr 8 minutes ago, SPIDER-MAN said: So after Trump is no longer in power, is Dr. Atlas essentially going to be laughed out of the medical field? If you're the hospital that employs him, do you even want him back? His specialty is in radiology so I'm sure he'll find somewhere to land, maybe even in the deep south where they can embrace his particular brand of crazy. This is nothing new though, Trump loves appointing people to positions well outside of their expertise and experience. Ben Carson appointed to lead HUD when his expertise is neurosurgery Scott Pruitt appointed to lead EPA when his expertise is in lobbying Betsy DeVos appointed to lead Dept of Education when her expertise is being married to a rich guy Rick Perry appoint to lead Dept of Energy when his expertise is in literally nothing
November 16, 20204 yr 6 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: A risk assessment calculator based on current data using your event size as estimation of the chances that at least one person in attendance is already positive. Obviously, it does not factor in personal habits of those in attendance, and it makes some aggressive assumptions on total number of circulating cases (5x higher than reported) which I'm not crazy about, but it does illustrate that the risk could be higher than many may be assuming if you're having 20+ adults over for thanksgiving. https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.Based on seroprevalence data and increases in testing, by default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported (5:1 ascertainment bias). In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher. We are evaluating the inclusion of lower ascertainment biases based on increased testing. 5x does seem a bit crazy. I would not be surprised to 2-3x though. older people are more likely to exhibit symptoms though right? If that's so, I'd think that number will also vary greatly by age group. younger populations might be 5x, older might be much less.
November 16, 20204 yr 5 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: 5x does seem a bit crazy. I would not be surprised to 2-3x though. A better way to model it would be to weight the ascertainment bias with positivity rate of each county but maybe that level of data isn't as granular. Still could deduce it from the state data though. Everyone has their own appetites for risk and the reward here is avoidance of strained relationships with friends/family. It's a tough call for sure, but I can definitely see us going dark for christmas this year if cases continue to surge. Quote older people are more likely to exhibit symptoms though right? If that's so, I'd think that number will also vary greatly by age group. younger populations might be 5x, older might be much less. Yes, but still can spread it pre-symptomatically. There's also the denial factor, "It's not covid it's just allergies, a cough, the weather, etc."
November 16, 20204 yr 4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: A better way to model it would be to weight the ascertainment bias with positivity rate of each county but maybe that level of data isn't as granular. Still could deduce it from the state data though. Everyone has their own appetites for risk and the reward here is avoidance of strained relationships with friends/family. It's a tough call for sure, but I can definitely see us going dark for christmas this year if cases continue to surge. given that they allow me to drill down to the county level I assumed that was built in. that said, I think my county's positivity rate is maybe just slightly better than the state's, so the difference isn't that great. the issue I have with the data the state makes available is that it shows the 14 day moving average. so big jumps take a bit to manifest in the data. at the county level, they started reporting based on case onset time even if they're reported later. while this is more accurate when looking at the complete data set, you also have to assume there is a large number of as yet unreported cases that will start to fill in the data as we get further along, which of course makes the data look like it's always on a downward trend at the end. which is almost certainly by design when you're releasing real-time data using an approach appropriate when the complete time series is available.
November 16, 20204 yr 2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: given that they allow me to drill down to the county level I assumed that was built in. that said, I think my county's positivity rate is maybe just slightly better than the state's, so the difference isn't that great. the issue I have with the data the state makes available is that it shows the 14 day moving average. so big jumps take a bit to manifest in the data. at the county level, they started reporting based on case onset time even if they're reported later. while this is more accurate when looking at the complete data set, you also have to assume there is a large number of as yet unreported cases that will start to fill in the data as we get further along, which of course makes the data look like it's always on a downward trend at the end. which is almost certainly by design when you're releasing real-time data using an approach appropriate when the complete time series is available. That's strictly based on country data for circulating positive cases. You have to select your own ascertainment bias, with 5x being the default.
November 17, 20204 yr 6 hours ago, DrPhilly said: New restrictions laid out here today. Max 8 people for any gathering for things like theaters, sports, concerts, etc. Restaurants/bars must fully uphold the distancing rules and no alcohol served after 10pm. Strong recommendations that no private gatherings are held at all and that people only meet with those in their own household. Strong recommendation against use of any public transportation unless absolutely necessary. Work from home if at all possible. Similar restrictions announced in Maryland, within the last few days: gatherings no more than 10 indoors, 25 outside. Restaurants/bars at 50% capacity, 25% in the city, must be seated in order to be served, must close by midnight. Youth sports cancelled. Severe caution towards any travel. Mandatory telework for government employees. I am still waiting to hear from my employer; I work from home 80% of the time now anyway. But I have several coworkers who never stopped commuting to the office even when they announced mandatory telework in the spring.
November 17, 20204 yr Here in WA: Under the restrictions, indoor social gatherings with people from outside the home are prohibited, unless participants quarantine for 14 days prior, or quarantine for seven days before the gathering and receive a negative Covid-19 test result no more than 48 hours prior. Outdoor gatherings will be limited to five people. Restaurants and bars will be limited to outdoors with capacity limits and to-go service, Inslee said. In-store retail stores, including grocery stores, are limited to 25% capacity. Religious services will also be limited to 25% of indoor capacity or 200 people, whichever is less, Inslee said. Performances by choirs, bands and ensembles are also prohibited. The order allows for solo performances, but Inslee said it's "too risky" for indoor choirs. Additionally, indoor service at gyms will be prohibited, along with bowling alleys, museums and movie theaters, among others businesses. The new restrictions will not impact childcare and K-12 schools, Inslee said. School districts that are currently holding in-person learning do not need to close, unless local officials make that determination.
November 17, 20204 yr Of course the, "Gubner iNsLeE sUx!!!!" crowd of Trump voters are out in full force on my FB feed. The memes going back and forth are funny though.
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