May 6, 20205 yr 20 minutes ago, Jsvand12 said: I’m glad to see that you aren’t only insane with flat earth stuff and you have broader interests. So exposing lies is insane?
May 6, 20205 yr On 5/1/2020 at 10:33 PM, EagleVA said: I'm not much of a reader either, they're all videos, you really should listen to what others outside of the mainstream media are saying. Bottom line, Bill Gates is trying to eliminate us through population reduction via vaccines. There isn't a conspiracy out there that you won't fall for. So glad you are back!
May 6, 20205 yr Just now, probably said: There isn't a conspiracy out there that you won't fall for. I think the same thing about you Small Case......you've fallen for the Moon Landing, 9/11 and now this......oh, and dino's
May 6, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, probably said: There isn't a conspiracy out there that you won't fall for. So glad you are back! Was it this guy or Bobby who was the Holocaust denier/skeptic?
May 6, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, EagleVA said: I think the same thing about you Small Case......you've fallen for the Moon Landing, 9/11 and now this......oh, and dino's I forgot about the dinosaur part
May 6, 20205 yr 20 minutes ago, DEagle7 said: Pretty large leap in logic. First of all in NYC the people staying at home are the vast majority of the city so it's not really all that surprising they're the largest percentage. If there was an outbreak at a Dave Matthews concert most of the victims would have pooka shell necklaces and no girlfriend, doesn't mean those are predisposing/related factors. Second of all these people aren't shut in completely, they're "largely" staying at home. So yeah you could say this means that people are going to get it no matter what, or you could just as easily say that we still have these infections even with brief exposure walking around a place as crowded as NYC and reopening could make it a Fton worse. If this is anything like the 1918 flu it's the latter. Spanish flu also had a mortality rate of around 2.5% I believe. The death rate is of Covid is likely be 0.3% to 0.5% based on antibody studies. Social distancing is more sustainable than lockdowns. Apple provided data showing a 60% decrease in routing requests from their baseline in April due to people staying home. In May, it's down to a 20% decrease from baseline showing a 40% increase in travel. Lockdowns are ineffective mostly because people just stop listening and go out.
May 6, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, vikas83 said: Was it this guy or Bobby who was the Holocaust denier/skeptic? Bobby never denied the Holocaust, it was total BS that the "click" pinned that on him.
May 6, 20205 yr Kayleigh McEnany did a good job with the briefing. Amazing to see what happens when someone prepares to answer questions.
May 6, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, vikas83 said: Was it this guy or Bobby who was the Holocaust denier/skeptic? He's more about hating the Jesuits than the Jews.
May 6, 20205 yr 34 minutes ago, DMMVP said: Early data shows 66% of new NY hospitalizations wha are largely sheltering at home. Another 18% from nursing homes. As lockdown effectiveness continues to not be supported by data. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html People idea of what "lockdown" means varies greatly. My wife has left the house once in the last two months, the only time she left was to get an antibody test. All supplies delivered to the front porch and cleaned aggressively. My employer says his family is on "lockdown". Yet he is flipping houses, meeting multiple contractors every day. His family, multiple sisters families, and mom and dad all go to each other houses, go out to stores, and restaurants for takeout, etc. Don't wear masks unless they're forced to. No concept of social distancing or covering their mouth when the cough or sneeze. My guess is these people testing positive and saying they were on lockdown are more like my employer.
May 6, 20205 yr 29 minutes ago, DMMVP said: Spanish flu also had a mortality rate of around 2.5% I believe. The death rate is of Covid is likely be 0.3% to 0.5% based on antibody studies. Social distancing is more sustainable than lockdowns. Apple provided data showing a 60% decrease in routing requests from their baseline in April due to people staying home. In May, it's a 20% decrease showing a 40% increase in travel. Lockdowns are ineffective mostly because people just stop listening and go out. We don't have strong enough data to accurately determine the mortally rate on COVID right now but yes it's almost definitely less than the 1918 flu (although there is weak data to suggest it's more virulent). That doesn't change the potential epidemiologic consequences of a premature reopening. And that's not to say the idea of reopening isn't a complicated issue with serious pros and cons that should be weighed carefully. But claiming "data shows them to be ineffective" by pointing it that the largest percentage of patients in a locked down city "mostly" stayed at home on a self reported survey is massively disingenuous if what you're really trying argue it's not sustainable long term because some people won't comply. Being less effective if some people don't comply and other methods also help, doesn't mean lockdowns are not effective or having an impact.
May 6, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, VanHammersly said: Is anyone comfortable clicking on this link? I’d be more comfortable with a random guy on the street with a needle telling me it was a Covid19 vaccine than clicking that link.
May 6, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Gannan said: Yeah there was the guy that owned the drive through emergent care. His opinion should be considered as valuable as epidemiologists who have been studying these kinds of corona viruses for most of their lives. Good point as always. Hey man, in their minds, this guy here is William Osler.
May 6, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DEagle7 said: We don't have strong enough data to accurately determine the mortally rate on COVID right now but yes it's almost definitely less than the 1918 flu (although there is weak data to suggest it's more virulent). That doesn't change the potential epidemiologic consequences of a premature reopening. And that's not to say the idea of reopening isn't a complicated issue with serious pros and cons that should be weighed carefully. But claiming "data shows them to be ineffective" by pointing it that the largest percentage of patients in a locked down city "mostly" stayed at home on a self reported survey is massively disingenuous if what you're really trying argue it's not sustainable long term because some people won't comply. Being less effective if some people don't comply and other methods also help, doesn't mean lockdowns are not effective or having an impact. Mortality rate is based on antibody testing completed in LA county and in NYC. Fauci alluded to the possibility of being less than 1% early on in a NEJM entry in March.... albeit pure conjecture at that point. I've given a few reasons why lockdowns aren't effective long term: Florida's success with lesser measures despite a high population density, a story Cuomo quoted in his news conference, lowered immune system, and nation phone data showing people just aren't as vigilant as time goes on. There are more effective measures such as social distancing. I never indicated reopening is easy or done all at once. I'd be glad to hear data or views on why you believe lockdowns are more effective.
May 6, 20205 yr Daily update from pops. https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/05/5620-covid-19-update.html Good Evening, Kudos to Governor Wolf of Pennsylvania, Governor Cuomo of New York, Governor Murphy of New Jersey, Governor Whitmer of Michigan and probably some that I have missed, for exhibiting the leadership skills and the ability to mold consensus, mandating masks for all in the public domain, minimizing the covid-19 damage to their Commonwealths. Special recognition to Mayor de Blasio for his efforts to hand out millions of masks in the next several weeks to his citizens who may need them. Face Masks: THERE OUGHT TO BE A LAW There is no scientific doubt now that transmission of the virus is primarily via the respiratory tract from human to human. No critters are involved at this point. Missouri - population 6,083,672 (2016) Governor - Mike Parson, struggling to connect the dots, challenged by playing checkers, little in the way of intestinal fortitude, not much of a leader, more a follower. States that wearing masks is up to the individual not a state mandate. From 2003 to 2011 there were 3314 traffic fatalities related to alcohol consumption. That is 414 alcohol related driving deaths per year. Assume that each death was caused by another individual and there were no multiple death incidents. This maximizes the individual responsibility theme. In ten weeks, in Governor Norman's State, there have been 377 Covid-19 related deaths. At the current rate, that would be 1963 deaths per year, 15,708 deaths over eight years. Assume only 50% were caused by respiratory transmission, (likely much more than 50%), that would still be 981 covid-19 deaths /year, 7852 covid deaths over eight years. Mike Parson is a Governor in a state with DUI laws. Why doesn't this genius leave drinking and driving up to the individual?? Ohio - population 11,613,423 (2016) Governor - Mike DeWine - struggling to connect the dots, playing checkers with Mike Parson might be a challenge, who gets to decide who is black and who is red? Little in the way of intestinal fortitude and definitely a follower. From 2003 to 2011 there were 3637 traffic fatalities related to alcohol consumption. That is 454 alcohol related driving deaths per year. Please make the same assumptions as above for Missouri. In ten weeks, in Governor DeWine's, state there have 1135 Covid-19 related deaths. At the current rate, that would be 5911 covid-19 deaths per year, 47,291 over eight years. Assume only half were caused by respiratory transmission, that would still be 2955 covid deaths per year, 23,644 covid-19 deaths in eight years. Mike DeWine is a Governor in a state with DUI laws. Why doesn't this genius leave drinking and driving up to the individual?? Florida - population 20,271,272 Governor Ron DeSantis - also struggling to connect the dots, being from the "Sunshine State", maybe the sun is getting in his eyes. Along with the two Governors mentioned above, is trying to play a threesome game of checkers. Likes to follow the crowd to the beach!! From 2003 to 2011 there were 8476 traffic fatalities related to alcohol consumption. That is 1059 alcohol related driving deaths per year. In ten weeks, in Governor DeSantis's State there have been 1536 covid-19 related deaths. At the current rate, that would be 8000 deaths per year, 64,000 deaths in eight years. Assume that only half were caused by respiratory transmission, that would be 4000 deaths related to covid-19 per year and 32,000 covid related deaths over eight years. Ron DeSantis is a Governor of a State that has DUI laws. Why doesn't this genius leave drinking and driving up to the individual?? Anybody perplexed by the contradiction? Modeling Many news reports yesterday centered around the new projection models, some of them similar to doomsday projections with no authority taking ownership. The press love the ability to hype these models. It is important to remember that models are based on assumptions (assumption = guess made by smart person). Without the ability to see the future, these assumptions can be and often are inaccurate. Not long ago, there were models depicting 200,000 plus deaths from Covid-19. These were quickly modified to resemble the IHME forecast at about 65,000 fatalities, and very low new case numbers by early May. Just two days ago these models were reconfigured, now predicting over 100,000 deaths by mid-August and the slope of the reverse curve being much flatter tailing into June. Factors that affect assumptions; 1. What is the case fatality rate? 2. What is the average recovery time? 3. What percentage of the populace will wear masks when in public? 4. What percentage of the populace will practice physical distancing? 5. What percentage of the population will practice good hand hygiene?. 6. What percentage of the population will return to the public domain (outside of employment) when the restrictions are released? 7. Will the weather have an effect? 8. Will the development of pharmacotherapeutic agents have an effect? The further off assumptions are from actual reality, the further off the accuracy of the modeling will be. I put out this message every night hoping to influence specifically factor #3, the more successful this message, the more inaccurate the models will be. Want to make some smart guys look bad, wear a mask when in the public domain. How to avoid the Spanish flu in 1918. Philadelphia was second only to Pittsburgh, among the major cities in the United States, in per capita deaths from the Spanish Flu. In 1918 Philadelphia had a population of about 1,750,000 with and additional 200,000 workers coming into the city daily. On September 28th, 1918 they had a sell War Bond Parade up Broad Street that approximately 200,000 attended. The Flu spread like a wildfire afterwards and 17,500 died. During six weeks of the fall, a person died every five minutes of the Spanish Flu. Wearing a mask became the law and a poem was written; Obey the laws and wear the gauze Protect your jaws from septic paws Numbers: 1800 From the Hopkins Website Tests - 7,759,771 (215,443 tests performed in the last 24 hours) USA - 1,223,419 ( up 2.01% from yesterday, up from, 1.89% the day before) New York New Jersey - 131,890 (up 0.99%, down from 1.81% the day before, 1230 fewer new cases from the day before) Pennsylvania - 54,800 (up 2.55%, up from 1.17% the day before) Maryland - 28,163 (up3.86%, down from 5.58% the day before, 429 fewer new cases than the day before) California - 58,924 (up 3.91%, up from 2.97% the day before) South Carolina - 6841 (up 1.33% up from 1.18% the day before) Texas - (up 3.79%, up from 2.54% the day before) World - 3,732,046 (up 2.35%, up from 2.08% the day before) There is little doubt that the story of this virus will be most contingent upon compliance, of society, for utilizing face masks in the public domain. The SPCA shows us pictures of mistreated pets, which I can barely watch, and always makes me want to support the organization. Maybe a documentary of some of the horrible deaths that occur with this disease would encourage mask compliance. Thank you for forwarding this very important message to others, it will make a difference if it reaches sufficient numbers. Live Safely Be Well Thank you
May 7, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DMMVP said: Mortality rate is based on antibody testing completed in LA county and in NYC. Fauci alluded to the possibility of being less than 1% early on in a NEJM entry in March.... albeit pure conjecture at that point. I've given a few reasons why lockdowns aren't effective long term: Florida's success with lesser measures despite a high population density, a story Cuomo quoted in his news conference, and nation phone data showing people aren't as vigilant. There are more effective measures such as social distancing. I never indicated reopening is easy or done all at once. I'd be glad to hear data or views on why you believe lockdowns are more effective. I believe the mortality rate will likely be less than 1%, but as far as I'm aware none of the antibody tests out there are FDA approved currently and while a few have been shown to be decent, the vast majority out there have significant false positive issues. But this is a side-track. Aside from the point that if we want to trust the the very weak data we have currently, 0.5% mortality with a higher R0 than the 1918 flu amongst a population more than triple it was 100 years ago is still a very big deal, your original point and my response had to do with spread, and the effectiveness of shutdowns. As of right now there is absolutely no way you can compare the effectiveness of social distancing vs a lockdown so definitively to say "there are more effective measures" while we're doing them all simultaneously. Aside from the relatively free flowing nature of travel between states, even places like Florida who did it very late still had some degree of lockdown. Even just logically I'm sure you can understand how things like social distancing effectiveness could be significantly impacted by more people being out and about. As far as your cell phone data, all it really suggests is that less people are breaking quarantine more, not that it isn't having an impact on spread. Looking purely at the cases per day the US has not begun to significantly decline like other western countries that shut down (eg France, Italy, Germany). So there is something that is behind that and at the very least it's reasonable to list non-compliance as a suspect. On the topic of other countries we can look at a place that suggested social distancing and masks, but did not shut down: Sweden. They also haven't seen a decline in their cases per day and have higher mortality rate per population than any other scandinavian country. I'd argue that's a much better test comparison than trying to make state-to-state. That's not to say this strategy won't have benefits in the future, but it very much suggests lockdown has a pretty significant impact on spread. Arguing economic impact, the benefits of "getting it out of the way", and the pros and cons of a certain degree of infringement of personal freedom are all reasonable things to debate. Reopening vs continued shutdown is a very complicated issue with no really great outcome. But we need to be honest in the discussion. And saying things like "a lot of infected people in NY claimed they stayed at home so data supports lockdowns aren't effective" and "social distancing is more effective than a lockdown in preventing spread" is intellectually dishonest.
May 7, 20205 yr 19 hours ago, Green_Guinness said: The liquor store I'm a manager at has been busy AF since this thing started. Ever since the day the NY/NJ/CT governors announced the tri-state curfew and rules (the day they did that, when people were thinking we'd be shutdown, we had our busiest day in our history) it's been like every week is a holiday week. Though, the holidays are finite and eventually end. This has been going on for 6+ weeks now and unlike the holidays we've been doing it short staffed at both our stores. Yet, our owners still have both stores open 9am-8pm for 7 days/week when other liquor stores have either cut their hours down or just gone to pickup/delivery only. But since our owners are making bank right now it's cool to run the employees into the ground and wear them down. Yeah, it's nice to keep working and not be on unemployment, but this is like Groundhogs Day replaying 4th of July or Thanksgiving week over and over again. And we have a Lowe's next to us and on every nice day that parking lot is packed. I really haven't gone out much, but I did go to my local Lowe's Monday to get stuff for my yard and garden and it was really busy. The lines for the outdoor center were a 10-15 minute wait at least. Wawas are still open and past curfew, only closing from 2-3am to clean, but they aren't as crowded as normal. The local pizza place just a few minutes from me is usually busy with takeout and delivery orders. So some small businesses are doing well. But having WalMart/Target open while other small stores have to close doesn't make sense. If their excuse is they sell groceries then leave that part of the store open and shutdown what's considered non-essential. But since you can't enforce that the whole store is open. It seems any store open that people use it as an excuse to get out of the house. I swear I've seen that at my store. You can tell the customers who know what they want and come in and get it and those who are lollygagging and on a day trip. Fers. Walmarts and other big chains have closed off the non essential parts of their stores off and only allowing people to buy essentials. You people in Jersey must be animals lol. It's not even nice to be working anymore people on unemployment are getting their pay plus 600 bucks on top of that a week. I'm getting like an extra 50 bucks a week to work in this crap while others are pulling in an extra 600 bucks a week to sit at home.
May 7, 20205 yr 39 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said: Walmarts and other big chains have closed off the non essential parts of their stores off and only allowing people to buy essentials. You people in Jersey must be animals lol. It's not even nice to be working anymore people on unemployment are getting their pay plus 600 bucks on top of that a week. I'm getting like an extra 50 bucks a week to work in this crap while others are pulling in an extra 600 bucks a week to sit at home. Some people, at least here in NJ, haven't gotten their unemployment yet. I was talking with a rep today and she was telling me how her BF (casino worker) hasn't even been able to get through to NJ unemployment yet. Seems they were giving you certain days to call them based on the last 4 digits of you SSN and now it's down to a half hour window on specific days. So if you don't get through to them in that half hour window then you have to wait until you next turn. She says she also has a friend who is a single mother and she also hasn't gotten her unemployment yet. She's maxed out her CCs and has almost depleted her savings to pay essential bills and for food. Then I had another rep tell me how his son has been getting his unemployment plus the extra $600/week (from the Federal gov't) and his son only works PT and doesn't even usually make $300/week. So now he's getting like $250 in NJ unemployment plus another $600/week so he's making an ish ton more staying home. WTF doesn't NJ unemployment prioritize who get paid first? Like a single mother should be getting paid before a college age kid living at home. This whole thing has been F'd up on so many levels by so many different gov't agencies. Epic fail across the board.
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