May 16, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Phillyterp85 said: Except that their is already a consensus (even acknowledged in your own cited article) that for a virus with a Ro between 2&3 that you need 60-70% of the population to contract the virus to reach herd immunity . Any talk of % below 50 is pipe dream hypothesis built on hope. And you don’t propose a solution built on hope. No one suggesting building a solution based on herd immunity. At least I did not and neither did Vikas.
May 16, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: If people don’t take the proper precautions to stop spreading the virus, the government won’t have to make a decision on shutting things down, the economy will shut down on its own as supply chains will be disrupted and dread risk will cause people to stay home. The initial lockdown was needed because we weren’t prepared. So we needed to give hospitals time to build up PPE supplies and to decrease surge volume so that the healthcare system wasn’t overrun. Now that we’ve had 2 months to build up those supplies (and we will continue to build up those supplies moving forward) and hospitals have worked on ways to temporarily increase critical care beds when needed, we should be much more prepared if a second wave happens. Does that mean you agree that the measurement that counts is keeping the hospitals from overflowing, i.e. control the curve?
May 16, 20205 yr 22 hours ago, Kz! said: You missed the most obvious one: Government officials forcing nursing homes to accept COVID patients. How do you feel the federal government has handled the crisis?
May 16, 20205 yr 28 minutes ago, Toastrel said: How do you feel the federal government has handled the crisis? Trump has been bigly perfect but the Dem Gubnors have Fed it up, duh
May 16, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DrPhilly said: No one suggesting building a solution based on herd immunity. At least I did not and neither did Vikas. You said, "All both of us are saying is that we can open up to the point of controlling the curve and move in the direction of a potential herd immunity whether we get there or not. ” What I’m saying is that herd immunity shouldn’t even be part of the discussion. Again, it is likely that antibody protection only lasts for 40 weeks. Which would mean that in order for herd immunity to have a benefit, it would need to be reached within a year. In order to do that, you’d need to have so many new cases a day that you’d overrun the healthcare system. So Reaching herd immunity is the antithesis of trying to control the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun.
May 16, 20205 yr 14 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: So Reaching herd immunity is the antithesis of trying to control the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun Well now that all depends on how fast you get there, how long the immunity lasts, and if the virus mutates to one that the immunity won't work for. You do not have enough information to make such definitive statements. You might be right and you might be wrong. Going back to the basic point. What metrics are you going to use to decide how to regulate the amount of openness? This is about the 5th time I've asked you to be precise. It is perfectly fine if you can agree to "as much as we can and not overflow the hospitals". If not that then what? I'm sorry to be pushy here but this is where the rubber hits the road.
May 16, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DrPhilly said: Does that mean you agree that the measurement that counts is keeping the hospitals from overflowing, i.e. control the curve? No I don’t agree that this is the measurement that counts. I think that is the absolute last resort of salvageable goals. Basically the absolute lowest barometer to achieve. I think the measurement that counts is deaths prevented. If we don’t stop the spread of this virus, not only will there be a lot of people that die directly from it, but there will be people that die indirectly from it, such as people being afraid to go to the ER (dread risk) for fear that they will catch the virus there. This is already occurring across the country as STEMI activations are down 30%. I don’t think people stopped having heart attacks. People are afraid to go to the ER for symptoms that they otherwise would have.
May 16, 20205 yr Just now, DrPhilly said: Well now that all depends on how fast you get there, how long the immunity lasts, and if the virus mutates to one that the immunity won't work for. You do not have enough information to make such definitive statements. You might be right and you might be wrong. Going back to the basic point. What metrics are you going to use to decide how to regulate the amount of openness? This is about the 5th time I've asked you to be precise. It is perfectly fine if you can agree to "as much as we can and not overflow the hospitals". If not that then what? I'm sorry to be pushy here but this is where the rubber hits the road. And I’ve given you my answer multiple times. So long as the task can be done while either wearing a mask or while maintaining physical distance from someone, the job should be opened back up. In other words, the overwhelming majority of the economy should be opened back up. People should wear masks when they are in a position that they can’t maintain physical distances from others.
May 16, 20205 yr 11 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: No I don’t agree that this is the measurement that counts. I think that is the absolute last resort of salvageable goals. Basically the absolute lowest barometer to achieve. I think the measurement that counts is deaths prevented. If we don’t stop the spread of this virus, not only will there be a lot of people that die directly from it, but there will be people that die indirectly from it, such as people being afraid to go to the ER (dread risk) for fear that they will catch the virus there. This is already occurring across the country as STEMI activations are down 30%. I don’t think people stopped having heart attacks. People are afraid to go to the ER for symptoms that they otherwise would have. Thank you for being clear. Deaths prevented for a specific virus or in a specific time frame is always a key metric to work with BUT it cannot be the only one that drives all decisions. Do you agree with that? 9 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: And I’ve given you my answer multiple times. So long as the task can be done while either wearing a mask or while maintaining physical distance from someone, the job should be opened back up. In other words, the overwhelming majority of the economy should be opened back up. People should wear masks when they are in a position that they can’t maintain physical distances from others. No you most certainly did not. You finally did though in the post above which I thank you for.
May 16, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, DrPhilly said: Thank you for being clear. Deaths prevented for a specific virus or in a specific time frame is always a key metric to work with BUT it cannot be the only one that drives all decisions. Do you agree with that? No you most certainly did not. You finally did though in the post above which I thank you for. I’m talking about deaths overall. You could drive new COVID deaths to 0 If you installed locks on everyone’s door to force them to stay inside, but you’d cause a heck of a lot more excess deaths due to other causes. So that obviously wouldn’t be a good policy. Hence why indefinite lockdown is not a good policy. FYi I’ve said numerous times that the economy should be open and people should be wearing masks in public spaces. My previous post was not the first time I’ve said that.
May 16, 20205 yr 18 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: FYi I’ve said numerous times that the economy should be open and people should be wearing masks in public spaces. My previous post was not the first time I’ve said that. I asked you specifically what metric you would use to regulate the level of openness. This line above is NOT an answer to that question. You did finally answer it by saying that your metric is "deaths prevented". So I'm going to assume then that you mean over the next 50 years and not simply the next 6 months. We can agree on that and drop the subject.
May 16, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DrPhilly said: I asked you specifically what metric you would use to regulate the level of openness. This line above is NOT an answer to that question. You did finally answer it by saying that your metric is "deaths prevented". So I'm going to assume then that you mean over the next 50 years and not simply the next 6 months. We can agree on that and drop the subject. I’m not saying I’d use deaths prevented as a metric to regulate the level of openness. I think everything should be open right now, provided that the tasks involved can be done while either wearing a mask or maintaining physical distances. I was saying deaths prevented as a metric to determine how good (or bad) of a job we’re doing at preventing the spread of the virus. If the healthcare system doesn’t get overrun over the next 12 months but 1,000,000 people die of COVID-19, then we did a pretty sh-tty job. If we keep the economy shut down for another 6 months, and only 10,000 people die of COVID during that time, but the economic depression leads to a million excess deaths due to other causes, then we did a pretty sh-tty job. Open everything now, wear a mask, maintain physical distances where practical.
May 16, 20205 yr Florida Department of Health officials have toured the theme park properties in Orlando this week, and had "some pretty promising takeaways”. CityWalk Orlando opened at the beginning of the week, and it seems like the parks will be opening soon. As a State, we’ve been doing pretty awesome, COVID-wise. Once the theme parks open...that will be the real test.
May 16, 20205 yr Author Just now, hey suess said: Once the theme parks open...that will be the real test. It could be a trap test.
May 16, 20205 yr 13 hours ago, Toastrel said: Just remember herd immunity is what you get AFTER all the susceptible die. During flu season 35K -65K susceptible die every year, this is why they have to keep inflating the numbers. I'm sure you've had friends that tell you they caught the flu bug and had to take off a couple of days, how many of your friends have told you they caught a bug during this scamdemic? Oh right, asymptomatic.......tell me any thing. You see folks, the coronoa virus isn't anything new, this is the 39th, if you've ever had the flu it's a good chance that it was one in the corona family and your immune system created corona antibodies to fight it off. So when they test for whether or not you have this corona virus they're looking for the antibodies, problem is, you have corona antibodies from the last corona virus you had way back when. Here's my advice to you guys, in preparation for wave two, research the many foods that strengthens your immune system and begin eating them everyday so you won't be one of the susceptible.
May 16, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, Eaglesfandan said: I'm still wondering what the NFL is gonna do. 🙂 Empty stadiums and pumped in crowd noise. I think there’s a great opportunity to do an app that pumps in sounds from peoples homes watching the game.
May 16, 20205 yr 12 minutes ago, EagleVA said: During flu season 35K -65K susceptible die every year, this is why they have to keep inflating the numbers. I'm sure you've had friends that tell you they caught the flu bug and had to take off a couple of days, how many of your friends have told you they caught a bug during this scamdemic? Oh right, asymptomatic.......tell me any thing. You see folks, the coronoa virus isn't anything new, this is the 39th, if you've ever had the flu it's a good chance that it was one in the corona family and your immune system created corona antibodies to fight it off. So when they test for whether or not you have this corona virus they're looking for the antibodies, problem is, you have corona antibodies from the last corona virus you had way back when. Here's my advice to you guys, in preparation for wave two, research the many foods that strengthens your immune system and begin eating them everyday so you won't be one of the susceptible. I'm gonna have to disagree and say that a virus that kills 80,000 Americans in a couple of months is pretty unusual.
May 16, 20205 yr 35 minutes ago, Toastrel said: I'm gonna have to disagree and say that a virus that kills 80,000 Americans in a couple of months is pretty unusual. From oct 2019 to April 2020, cdc estimates between 24-65k Flu deaths. They don’t give a real number and they estimate that range because nobody gives a F about flu anymore because they have a false sense of security after their flu shot. As soon as we have a magic corona vaccine nobody will give a F about this either. But for arguments sake let’s say the number is 65K, so the 80k for corona (albeit still counting) isn’t all that far off from an ordinary flu season. It’ll kill more people than the flu for sure, but again that’s a simple matter of we have a magic flu vaccine which is only 35% effective any given year, so let’s say the Rona kills 100k as predicted and we had a magic 35% vaccination cocktail. Guess what, there’s your 65k. It’s all a sham to drive another money making vaccine to market because they realize that the flu vaccine isn’t really effective and more and more people are skipping it entirely and taking their chances of not feeling good for a week. follow the money - gates and fauci are the prime benefactors of the chlorowhateberitisaphine, and they are teamed up working on a vaccine for this....complete with gates microchip that will track your every movement so they help analyze the data. Ok I’ll take off my tinfoil hat for a minute...some of that was sarcasm but some of it is very real. I’ll let you decide on your own. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
May 17, 20205 yr 24 minutes ago, DBW said: From oct 2019 to April 2020, cdc estimates between 24-65k Flu deaths. They don’t give a real number and they estimate that range because nobody gives a F about flu anymore because they have a false sense of security after their flu shot. As soon as we have a magic corona vaccine nobody will give a F about this either. But for arguments sake let’s say the number is 65K, so the 80k for corona (albeit still counting) isn’t all that far off from an ordinary flu season. It’ll kill more people than the flu for sure, but again that’s a simple matter of we have a magic flu vaccine which is only 35% effective any given year, so let’s say the Rona kills 100k as predicted and we had a magic 35% vaccination cocktail. Guess what, there’s your 65k. It’s all a sham to drive another money making vaccine to market because they realize that the flu vaccine isn’t really effective and more and more people are skipping it entirely and taking their chances of not feeling good for a week. follow the money - gates and fauci are the prime benefactors of the chlorowhateberitisaphine, and they are teamed up working on a vaccine for this....complete with gates microchip that will track your every movement so they help analyze the data. Ok I’ll take off my tinfoil hat for a minute...some of that was sarcasm but some of it is very real. I’ll let you decide on your own. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm No doubt there are people who stand to gain a ton of money in this crisis. Gates and fauci being only 2 of them. I dont understand why people why people arent at least a little concerned about the conflict of interest fauci is tied into here. Gates is a business man so it’s not a conflict and to be expected.
May 17, 20205 yr 36 minutes ago, DBW said: It’s all a sham to drive another money making vaccine to market because they realize that the flu vaccine isn’t really effective and more and more people are skipping it entirely and taking their chances of not feeling good for a week. How is the flu vaccine a money making sham? You can get it for free along with all other major vaccines
May 17, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said: How is the flu vaccine a money making sham? You can get it for free along with all other major vaccines Nothing is free man. Nothing. And when your "free” vaccine doesn’t work, what do they give you? Tamiflu. That your insurance pays for. Shocker that another drug was made To fight off the ineffective flu shots and the drug companies and their political allies make a crap ton of money.
May 17, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DBW said: Nothing is free man. Nothing. And when your "free” vaccine doesn’t work, what do they give you? Tamiflu. That your insurance pays for. Shocker that another drug was made To fight off the ineffective flu shots and the drug companies and their political allies make a crap ton of money. Not from me they dont
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