1 minute ago, Ipiggles said:

And you were the one trying to claim others dont realize how the OIL market operates? 

 

Those are questions. You can answer them. How much do we need to pump to make OPEC lower prices?

For referecnce :

The Keystone XL Pipeline Project (Phase IV) revised proposal in 2012 consists of a new 36-inch (910 mm) pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta, through Montana and South Dakota to Steele City, Nebraska, to "transport of up to 830,000 barrels per day (132,000 m³/d) of crude oil from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada, and from the Williston Basin (Bakken) region in Montana and North Dakota, primarily to refineries in the Gulf Coast area".

 

Those 830,000 gallons of oil, if we are to "replace that movement, meaning we are still moving that amount of oil, now needs to be trucked, shipped. That raises the cost significantly, as Trucking prices fluctuate with OIl/Gas prices. 

 

Again part of the problem with  speculation. 

2 minutes ago, Ipiggles said:

For referecnce :

The Keystone XL Pipeline Project (Phase IV) revised proposal in 2012 consists of a new 36-inch (910 mm) pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta, through Montana and South Dakota to Steele City, Nebraska, to "transport of up to 830,000 barrels per day (132,000 m³/d) of crude oil from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada, and from the Williston Basin (Bakken) region in Montana and North Dakota, primarily to refineries in the Gulf Coast area".

 

Those 830,000 gallons of oil, if we are to "replace that movement, meaning we are still moving that amount of oil, now needs to be trucked, shipped. That raises the cost significantly, as Trucking prices fluctuate with OIl/Gas prices. 

 

Again part of the problem with  speculation. 

How much would make OPEC lower the global price of oil?

10 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Those are questions. You can answer them. How much do we need to pump to make OPEC lower prices?

I cant answer that, I dont profess to be an expert on the market, but I do know, since it is a global market- any change to future production has an almost immediate affect on OIL futures.  See above for how if the PIpeline is running how it would affect the market. 

 

 

 

41 minutes ago, The_Omega said:

So you’re using hypotheticals vs reality to spin and demonstrate your hypothetical (vs real) intellectual superiority.

no, I'm using actual numbers. 

the reason month-over-month numbers aren't commonly used here is because they're very volatile. which is why one month of relatively low month-to-month inflation is not a great indicator, and I specifically said that we'd need to stack numbers like this for at least a few more months to start feeling better about inflation. 

as I said, one month does not make a trend. but a trend has to start with one, and one month of low inflation month-over-month is better than zero. 

unless the diesel shortage is resolved I expect May inflation numbers to be high again, unfortunately. again, another thing I said earlier.

none of this is that complicated. I'm hardly attempting to demonstrate intellectual superiority, nor am I spinning anything. the 8.3% number represents inflation from April 2021 to April 2022. that is precisely what that number means. and it's also true to state that if month-over-month inflation was zero for six months we'd still have high year-over-year inflation numbers (unless we have deflation) because prices now are higher than they were 6 mos ago. 

31 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said:

If Biden ends the Trump Tariff's against China, it may have big impact on inflation. 

But Tarriff's are good and easy to win. So there's that. LOL. 

And will have a huge impact on my industry.  We had more material price increases during Trumps time in office than we did during any other time during my 20 years in this industry.

We had several of our major suppliers specifically reference Trump as the reason for the increases.

24 minutes ago, Ipiggles said:

I cant answer that, I dont profess to be an expert on the market, but I do know, since it is a global market- any change to future production has an almost immediate affect on OIL futures.  See above for how if the PIpeline is running how it would affect the market. 

 

 

 

Only leaves out one small thing.

OPEC sets targets for production by its members states to actively control the price of oil on the world market.

1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

 

Loser Mike can't even come up with his own insults. Always hanging off other posters' nutsacks. What a chode 

Nice

34 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

no, I'm using actual numbers. 

You’re talking about prices going down when they went up so obviously you’re not.

Reality:

 

CVON Joemosexuals

 

22 minutes ago, downundermike said:

And will have a huge impact on my industry.  We had more material price increases during Trumps time in office than we did during any other time during my 20 years in this industry.

We had several of our major suppliers specifically reference Trump as the reason for the increases.

Interesting, because Biden is getting all the blame for Inflation, regardless of the prior policies. 

39 minutes ago, downundermike said:

And will have a huge impact on my industry.  We had more material price increases during Trumps time in office than we did during any other time during my 20 years in this industry.

We had several of our major suppliers specifically reference Trump as the reason for the increases.

What industry?

1 minute ago, The_Omega said:

What industry?

Commercial glazing, including storefront windows, manual and automatic doors.

13 minutes ago, downundermike said:

Commercial glazing, including storefront windows, manual and automatic doors.

Interesting 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3272132721

Reducing or eliminating the tariffs put in place by the Trump administration would arguably have a larger impact on long-term inflation than anything in the near-term. The issue right now is simply lack of supply, and continued struggles in the shipping/logistics chain. As long as China continues to employ a zero-tolerance approach to COVID, the supply of goods will be materially restricted. That's why companies are tripping over themselves to pay in advance for future manufacturing slots. Add in the lack of shipping and trucking and...you have a perfect storm.

The tariffs were stupid and ineffective, as evidenced by the fact that China didn't meet any of the requirements in the deal (shocking). But repealing them won't be some magic bullet. China needs to re-open for business without the constant start and stop.

6 minutes ago, The_Omega said:

Interesting 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3272132721

Yes, we are seeing a spike now, but that is partially due to issues from Trump, especially tarriffs with China, and the war in Ukraine is having an impact.

In regards to Trump and tarriffs, two of the major float glass plants in the US closed due to the tarriffs, and it was forecasted in 2018 by major glass suppliers there would be shortages.  We would get a yearly price increase from glass suppliers, but starting in 2018 it became quarterly price increases.

In regards to Ukraine, one of the major mines for an element that is used in Aluminum manufacturing is in the Ukraine ( the name of it escapes me at the moment).  When our sales rep from a major commercial storefront and curtain wall supplier was here in March, he indicated that we are looking at a major price increase due to the lack of this specific material mined in the Ukraine.

47 minutes ago, The_Omega said:

You’re talking about prices going down when they went up so obviously you’re not.

 No, I am not. You're willfully misinterpreting what I'm saying. Even if inflation goes from 8.3% to 0.1% prices are not going down. 

Go back and reread what I wrote. Nowhere in here am I suggesting that inflation has been negative (or deflation).

I said that the inflation number from March to April, month-over-month, is 0.3%, which annualized is about 3.6%. (0.3% * 12 mos = 3.6%. if I wanted to get nitpicky I'd compound it 12x, which would be 3.66%.)

The 8.3% number is comparing April 2021 to April 2022. 

MoM numbers are volatile so they are not commonly used. May could easily see that number back closer to 1%, which is a very bad MoM number. 

 

Let me try it another way.

Suppose in April 2021 the market basket used to calculate CPI cost exactly $100. The same basket in April 2022 is now $108.30, because inflation added $8.30 to the cost.

In March, that basket of goods was $107.97. The 0.3% in MoM inflation from March -> April resulted in basket increasing cost by $0.33. 

So let's assume for simplicity that MoM inflation was flat/even over the last 12 mos, so that basket that cost $100 in April 2021 cost around $104.15 in Nov 2021. IF we had zero inflation MoM from now until November 2022, the basket of goods that cost $104.15 in Nov 2021 would cost the same $108.30 as it does now, making YoY inflation in Nov 2022 around 4.1%. Still a high number compared to the last couple decades, and that's after six months of no price changes. 

Because the reported number compares year over year, we won't see that 8% number tick down for quite a while even IF prices as they are right now in April/May 2022 stay the same for the foreseeable future, because that number is basically a moving average. 

Both numbers tell a story. Looking at MoM numbers over the last 6 mos can show a trend, but can also be volatile. Looking at a moving average shows a smoother graph, but you miss the short-term movement. 

25 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

 

 

You are wasting your time with that dolt.

1 hour ago, vikas83 said:

Reducing or eliminating the tariffs put in place by the Trump administration would arguably have a larger impact on long-term inflation than anything in the near-term. The issue right now is simply lack of supply, and continued struggles in the shipping/logistics chain. As long as China continues to employ a zero-tolerance approach to COVID, the supply of goods will be materially restricted. That's why companies are tripping over themselves to pay in advance for future manufacturing slots. Add in the lack of shipping and trucking and...you have a perfect storm.

The tariffs were stupid and ineffective, as evidenced by the fact that China didn't meet any of the requirements in the deal (shocking). But repealing them won't be some magic bullet. China needs to re-open for business without the constant start and stop.

Agreed- however, I think you'd agree if we moved towards producing more goods inside the US, or even picked other countries rather than rely on Communist Countries like China to provide this supply, we would be better off in the long run. Because we have very little input to what China does. 

1 hour ago, jsdarkstar said:

Interesting, because Biden is getting all the blame for Inflation, regardless of the prior policies. 

whether you like it or not - The sitting President, Party in control will take the heat- whether it be because they were responsible, or unable to do enough to help the situation.

I will argue that sending $40B to Ukraine isn't exactly helping the situation

2 minutes ago, Ipiggles said:

Agreed- however, I think you'd agree if we moved towards producing more goods inside the US, or even picked other countries rather than rely on Communist Countries like China to provide this supply, we would be better off in the long run. Because we have very little input to what China does. 

As you said, that's a longer-term consideration. In the short-term, it can't help. We need China to re-open permanently.

1 minute ago, Ipiggles said:

whether you like it or not - The sitting President, Party in control will take the heat- whether it be because they were responsible, or unable to do enough to help the situation.

I will argue that sending $40B to Ukraine isn't exactly helping the situation

It has legitimately zero impact. $40bn is a rounding error.

Trillions of COVID relief had an impact. $40bn doesn't get noticed.

Granted, I'm not an economics professor, but seems to me, eliminating the Tarriff's on China, and raising taxes on corporations who are making record profits thanks to inflation, may help the situation a lot for average consumers. Why shouldn't the corporations pay more when they profit on all of us?

30 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

As you said, that's a longer-term consideration. In the short-term, it can't help. We need China to re-open permanently.

It has legitimately zero impact. $40bn is a rounding error.

Trillions of COVID relief had an impact. $40bn doesn't get noticed.

While we may need China to re-open, we have little input into that decision.

Agreed the 3 Trillion we printed in the past year and a half is the bulk, and 40B is a small percentage, it all adds up and as I stated, it isn't helping. 

30 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said:

Granted, I'm not an economics professor, but seems to me, eliminating the Tarriff's on China, and raising taxes on corporations who are making record profits thanks to inflation, may help the situation a lot for average consumers. Why shouldn't the corporations pay more when they profit on all of us?

It's honestly awe-inspiring when some knuckle dragger that says "just tax corporations moar" and doesn't understand that that cost is instantly passed on to the consumer. 

https://reason.com/2022/04/08/covid-stimulus-checks-worsened-inflation/

Quote

 

Inflation has surged across much of the developed world in the past year as COVID-19 lockdowns eased and pent-up demand for goods and services collided with ongoing supply chain snafus.

But inflation is running higher in the United States than just about anywhere else right now. Why's that? According to a new paper from four economists at the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, it's because the American government was relatively more generous during the pandemic, borrowing and spending trillions of dollars to not only fund COVID-19 relief efforts but to line the pockets of Americans with direct payments that enlarged the money supply and overheated the economy.

"Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically," the economists write in an analysis published this week. "However, since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic's economic effect may have contributed to this divergence."

Inflation in the U.S. hit an annualized rate of 7.9 percent in February (data for March will be released by the Bureau for Labor Statistics next week), a 40-year high. Meanwhile, inflation in similar countries like France (3.6 percent), Germany (5.1 percent), and the United Kingdom (5.5 percent) is significantly lower, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a consortium of 38 rich-world governments. (Across the OECD as a whole, the average annual inflation rate is about the same as the U.S., but that's due to the influence of outliers like Argentina—where prices are up over 52 percent in the past 12 months.)

February's global price data are not merely a snapshot, but indicative of a worrying trend. The Pew Research Center noted in November of last year that prices in the United States were rising more quickly than almost anywhere else. Between the third quarter of 2019 (the last full economic quarter before COVID-19 was first identified) and the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. inflation rate climbed by 3.58 percentage points—a larger change than in all but two other countries of the 46 nations included in the study.

Governments all over the world spent heavily to combat the pandemic, of course, but few handed out cash directly to citizens as the American government did. The four Federal Reserve researchers track sharp increases in "inflation-adjusted disposable personal income"—in layman's terms, excess spending cash—reported by American households over the past two years. "Throughout 2020 and 2021, U.S. households experienced significantly higher increases in their disposable income relative to their OECD peers," they write.

 

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/march/why-is-us-inflation-higher-than-in-other-countries/

About $817 billion in direct payments to American households were delivered in three rounds during the pandemic, according to the COVID Money Tracker run by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit that advocates for lower deficits. The first round of stimulus checks was worth $1,200 per person and was approved as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act in March 2020. Another round of $600 checks was distributed starting in December of that year.

But the big blow came in early 2021, when the Biden administration pushed through a round of $1,400 checks as part of the American Recovery Plan, passed by Congress in March 2021.

Though each round of direct checks had slightly different parameters for determining who would get the payments, much of that $817 billion landed in the bank accounts of people who had never lost their jobs and were well above the poverty line. Households earning as much as $160,000 in joint income were eligible for the final round of direct payments disbursed during the first half of 2021—and many progressives in Congress thought the cutoff should have been even higher.

We're now reaping what Congress sowed. All that excess cash is chasing the same number of goods. That's a recipe for inflation straight out of any economics textbook. The four economists conclude that "U.S. income transfers may have contributed to an increase in inflation of about 3 percentage points by the fourth quarter of 2021."

 

 

the cheeto stimulus checks for $1200 and $600 were good. the biden stimulus checks for $1400 were bad.  that's some article.    

 

i do think the checks should've been more strategic & only given to those who lost their jobs due to the pandemic and actually needed them....all 3 rounds....equal outrage!  but i imagine they were trying to do something quickly rather than get tied up trying to figure out a way to determine need.