February 28, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, Bill said: tl;dr: Russia figured out why they’re stalling, they’re putting better equipment on the field, they’re gonna push hard, it’s gonna get worse. Yeah that was the concern especially with yesterday being so quiet relative to previous days. Hopefully it also gave time for Ukrainian defenses to resupply and get some of the new defensive pieces from the west into place, though I'm not optimistic on that front.
February 28, 20223 yr Ok I just checked and there’s two US tankers over Romania and four tankers over Poland (two US, two NATO). There’s also an E-8 and a RC-135 flying parallel to Belarus. Previously I only saw an RQ-8 flying over the Black Sea and either an E-8 or RC-135 flying over Romania along the Moldovan border. Long story short, I think Russia is going to suspend the South and East axis offensives and they’re going to concentrate on taking Kyiv. Honestly I think you’re going to see an offensive kick off tonight and Kyiv will probably be encircled in a day or three and taken within the week.
February 28, 20223 yr May be nothing, but NATO planes that had previously had their transponders off to not broadcast numbers apparently now are on, projecting to Putin exactly how much NATO air support there is in the area: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ Apparently only a handful had been on previously to show presence so as not to spook, but now it appears to be projecting strength? Or is it just the effect of more military flights? (Edit, disclaimer: This is secondhand from some rando who claims to know something, could be nothing)
February 28, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, Bill said: Honestly I think you’re going to see an offensive kick off tonight and Kyiv will probably be encircled in a day or three and taken within the week. Let's hope negotiations go somewhere and Putin is given an offramp he's willing to take. Russia has to be recalibrating after the response the West has made here. It cannot be what they want. They want to expand their influence and this has had the opposite effect regardless of how Ukraine turns out.
February 28, 20223 yr Author 6 hours ago, DBW said: The agreement, if you will, is that we (any nato nation) can send all the support (weapons, fuel, intelligence) that we want, but as part of the treaty, we (the US specifically) will not put boots on the ground. My guess is that everyone agreed that it wouldn’t be a fair fight if we went in 500,000 troops tomorrow. quite honestly, if I was running the country, I would have deemed Putin the same level as bin laden and Hussein and I would have sent a seal team in 72 hours ago and this would be over. Bin Laden was in a clay hut basically, where Putin is in a fortified bunker with armed killers around him as well. They are not Ethan Hunt.
February 28, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said: Bin Laden was in a clay hut basically, where Putin is in a fortified bunker with armed killers around him as well. They are not Ethan Hunt. Even then it took years to locate him. If Putin is taken out it has to be by Russians.
February 28, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: May be nothing, but NATO planes that had previously had their transponders off to not broadcast numbers apparently now are on, projecting to Putin exactly how much NATO air support there is in the area: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ Apparently only a handful had been on previously to show presence so as not to spook, but now it appears to be projecting strength? Or is it just the effect of more military flights? (Edit, disclaimer: This is secondhand from some rando who claims to know something, could be nothing) Russia and Belarus have radar. They already know what we had, we didn’t need to turn off transponders. They know regardless. The transponders are for civilian aircraft because Europe is very busy airspace and the aircraft are flying in commercial airspace.
February 28, 20223 yr Just now, Bill said: Russia and Belarus have radar. They already know what we had, we didn’t need to turn off transponders. They know regardless. The transponders are for civilian aircraft because Europe is very busy airspace and the aircraft are flying in commercial airspace. Gotcha. Thanka
February 28, 20223 yr 34 minutes ago, Bill said: Ok I just checked and there’s two US tankers over Romania and four tankers over Poland (two US, two NATO). There’s also an E-8 and a RC-135 flying parallel to Belarus. Previously I only saw an RQ-8 flying over the Black Sea and either an E-8 or RC-135 flying over Romania along the Moldovan border. Long story short, I think Russia is going to suspend the South and East axis offensives and they’re going to concentrate on taking Kyiv. Honestly I think you’re going to see an offensive kick off tonight and Kyiv will probably be encircled in a day or three and taken within the week. This sounds about right unfortunately. Maybe today’s talks buy Ukraine an extra day or so. The only issue I see with that timeframe is maybe Russia decides to focus on closing out access to the west part of the country more seriously which might give Kyiv another couple of days.
February 28, 20223 yr Seriously, what is going on with the guy? Very clear he is petrified of Covid (and maybe rumors of him being seriously ail aren’t far off).
February 28, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Bill said: None of these are good signs. Previously our aircraft around the area were all for SIGINT (picking up Russian comms) and tankers (which I think were for refueling NATO fighters flying CAP in NATO countries (Romania and Poland). The other day it was announced that countries were donating planes to Ukraine and now we’re giving them AWACS support. And now it’s obvious why. Russia made a blunder and tried to go about taking territory with light infantry and older equipment, which to them made sense because they expected limited resistance. The last two days saw limited fighting because they’re retooling their offensive. Putin sacked the commander overseeing it a few days ago, and there’s a new sheriff in town. Russia is now committing not only more aircraft, but more advanced aircraft, as well as thermobaric MLRS equipment. They were taking two days off to get ready for their next push. They’re getting their logistical ducks in order and getting equipment in place. I expect to see some air dominance by Russia and for them to make a significant and coordinated push. tl;dr: Russia figured out why they’re stalling, they’re putting better equipment on the field, they’re gonna push hard, it’s gonna get worse. Yeah, gotta imagine Ukraine won't be able to hold them off for much longer. Zelensky has put up a valiant fight but I'm not sure this ends well for him or anyone else going down with the ship.
February 28, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said: 1) Maybe He's really sick with something bad? 2_) this is how I used to sit at dinner when my dad was pissed at me Perhaps he is afraid of assassination?
February 28, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said: 1) Maybe He's really sick with something bad? 2_) this is how I used to sit at dinner when my dad was pissed at me You had a 100 yard long dining table?
February 28, 20223 yr 21 minutes ago, Thrive said: Seriously, what is going on with the guy? Very clear he is petrified of Covid (and maybe rumors of him being seriously ail aren’t far off). Maybe Putin is a geriatric Batman
February 28, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Russian state propaganda insisting cities are not being struck .. only idiots like Abra buy this Isn’t it ironic that people that are the loudest at preaching "You can’t trust main stream media” are also completely entrenched in obvious propaganda?
February 28, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, MidMoFo said: Isn’t it ironic that people that are the loudest at preaching "You can’t trust main stream media” are also completely entrenched in obvious propaganda? The levels of projection that Russophiles demonstrate is pretty impressive, if you're a mental health professional.
February 28, 20223 yr Heard on the news that there are unconfirmed reports that the talks between Russia and Ukraine have failed and Russia to intensify the bombings.. Does anyone else have any info on whether this is true or not ?
February 28, 20223 yr Isn't it ironic that people who claim to support Democracy and Freedom, are in support of people like Putin?
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