March 7, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, TEW said: Oh yeah, I’m such a coward for wanting to avoid thermonuclear war where every major population center in North America and Europe gets turned into a sheet of glass. What's the risk here? That Putin is crazy and eager enough to end the world if someone shoots down some of his invading planes? My viewpoint is if he's crazy enough to do it then then he's crazy enough to do it for any other reason. Either he's crazy and we're screwed regardless or he's bluffing.
March 7, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Here you go: https://www.reddit.com/r/im14andthisisdeep/ Reddit a thing for you?
March 7, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, TEW said: Oh yes, great analogy! Losing a chip stack vs a billion peoples lives. Brilliant! Human psychology either way. Fear of loss
March 7, 20223 yr Just now, mayanh8 said: What's the risk here? That Putin is crazy and eager enough to end the world if someone shoots down some of his invading planes? My viewpoint is if he's crazy enough to do it then then he's crazy enough to do it for any other reason. Either he's crazy and we're screwed regardless or he's clearly bluffing. He’s been very clear that if NATO gets involved his retaliation will be tactical nuclear attacks on Western Europe. Maybe it’s a bluff. Maybe not. It would be incredibly stupid to find out.
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: My viewpoint is if he's crazy enough to do it then then he's crazy enough to do it for any other reason. Either he's crazy and we're screwed regardless or he's bluffing. Wow. That took long enough. 😳
March 7, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said: Human psychology either way. Fear of loss I absolutely fear losing a billion people and possibly human civilization itself in a nuclear war. The other word for this is sanity.
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, TEW said: He’s been very clear that if NATO gets involved his retaliation will be tactical nuclear attacks on Western Europe. Maybe it’s a bluff. Maybe not. It would be incredibly stupid to find out. They can play their "wartime" games of taking Putin out but there's a reason why NATO countries are not crossing that line. Armchair quarterbacking is fun though.
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, TEW said: He’s been very clear that if NATO gets involved his retaliation will be tactical nuclear attacks on Western Europe. Maybe it’s a bluff. Maybe not. It would be incredibly stupid to find out. Would be incredibly stupid to fold to a bluff. if he is willing to do it…spoiler:he isnt…then it will be inevitable. You are enabling further aggression. All that is necessary is for good men to do nothing…
March 7, 20223 yr 18 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: What's the risk here? That Putin is crazy and eager enough to end the world if someone shoots down some of his invading planes? My viewpoint is if he's crazy enough to do it then then he's crazy enough to do it for any other reason. Either he's crazy and we're screwed regardless or he's bluffing. What concerns me about Putin is how he proceeded to invade even when he was warned that his country and its people would suffer severely do to the economic sanctions that would be imposed and yet he proceeded anyways. And all of his people will suffer from it greatly. that’s pretty desperate if not insane. We currently have someone who (for whatever reason) is willing to let his OWN people, women, children, families, suffer in masses with nukes at his disposal
March 7, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, TEW said: I absolutely fear losing a billion people and possibly human civilization itself in a nuclear war. The other word for this is sanity. The word is cowardice
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, Paul852 said: They can play their "wartime" games of taking Putin out but there's a reason why NATO countries are not crossing that line. Armchair quarterbacking is fun though. Some people shine when the stakes are highest. Most shrink.
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, TEW said: He’s been very clear that if NATO gets involved his retaliation will be tactical nuclear attacks on Western Europe. Maybe it’s a bluff. Maybe not. It would be incredibly stupid to find out. To me, having THAT as the nuclear holocaust line in the sand feels wildly superficial, convenient, and wholy contrived. Not sure that, for me, I'd prefer to FAFO but I'm confident that if some country did we'd all see a quick, non-nuclear end to the conflict with Putin being days away from being ousted.
March 7, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said: Would be incredibly stupid to fold to a bluff. if he is willing to do it…spoiler:he isnt…then it will be inevitable. You are enabling further aggression. All that is necessary is for good men to do nothing… This is how I know you’re not a good poker player. If you’re the chip leader (the US) you don’t take risks calling what may or may not be a bluff when the information you have doesn’t give you an advantage. You don’t risk getting your stack wiped out in one fell swoop on coin flips over a small pot (Ukraine). Much better to let the other guy win the hand but maintain a dominant chip lead. You can continue to use your chip lead to apply pressure and you will likely win in the long run, assuming you don’t do anything stupid like calling what you think is a bluff but turns out to be the nuts.
March 7, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said: Some people shine when the stakes are highest. Most shrink. Who's shrinking? All the best military minds in the world? Who's shining? Some guy named ToastJenkins on the EMB? 4 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: To me, having THAT as the nuclear holocaust line in the sand feels wildly superficial, convenient, and wholy contrived. Not sure that, for me, I'd prefer to FAFO but I'm confident that if some country did we'd all see a quick, non-nuclear end to the conflict with Putin being days away from being ousted. That may already be the current reality.
March 7, 20223 yr 13 minutes ago, SNOORDA said: What concerns me about Putin is how he proceeded to invade even when he was warned that his country and its people would suffer severely do to the economic sanctions that would be imposed and yet he proceeded anyways. And all of his people will suffer from it greatly. that’s pretty desperate if not insane. I don't actually think that's how it happened. From everything I'm reading, and it'd make sense if this was the case, that Putin was being fed a line of bullsh** about his own military capabilities. There's a decent sized defense budget in Russia but it seems like much of the money never actually ended up where it was supposed to... the prime target there was maintenance. The overriding notion amongst outside experts is corrupt oligarchs and generals were diverting funds away from things like maintenance and telling Putin everything was great. Fast forward to Ukraine and the military apparatus faceplants. He can't back down, though. He'd never survive that. So he's doubling down with a 3rd world war machine. He's more vulnerable now than he's ever been.
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: To me, having THAT as the nuclear holocaust line in the sand feels wildly superficial, convenient, and wholy contrived. Not sure that, for me, I'd prefer to FAFO but I'm confident that if some country did we'd all see a quick, non-nuclear end to the conflict with Putin being days away from being ousted. For perspective, he invaded Ukraine in large part due to another line in the sand being threatened… More to the point, Putin doesn’t have much of a choice. That’s been their game plan since the Cold War. They go nuclear early. Doubly so now that they don’t have Poland etc as buffer states. Look, I get the urge to F Russia up over this, to end the Ukraine decisively. But this isn’t a board game, it’s not a card game, it’s not a video game. You’re risking billions of peoples lives if NATO gets involved. This level of risk is completely unacceptable to any sane person.
March 7, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, TEW said: This is how I know you’re not a good poker player. If you’re the chip leader (the US) you don’t take risks calling what may or may not be a bluff when the information you have doesn’t give you an advantage. You don’t risk getting your stack wiped out in one fell swoop on coin flips over a small pot (Ukraine). Much better to let the other guy win the hand but maintain a dominant chip lead. You can continue to use your chip lead to apply pressure and you will likely win in the long run, assuming you don’t do anything stupid like calling what you think is a bluff but turns out to be the nuts. Thats where you auck as a poker player. are we the chip leader? Not really. And its not a small pot, since we have folded to previous raises. Syria, etc. this is how you execute a trap when they have grown over confident and stuck their neck out. Here is where you cut their head off.
March 7, 20223 yr Just now, mayanh8 said: I don't actually think that's how it happened. From everything I'm reading, and it'd make sense if this was the case, that Putin was being fed a line of bullsh** about his own military capabilities. There's a decent sized defense budget in Russia but it seems like much of the money never actually ended up where it was supposed to... the prime suspect here being maintenance. The overriding notion amongst outside experts is corrupt oligarchs and generals were diverting funds away from things like maintenance and telling Putin everything was great. Fast forward to Ukraine and the military apparatus faceplants. He can't back down, though. He'd never survive that. So he's doubling down with a 3rd world war machine. He's more vulnerable now than he's ever been. The sanctions are supposed to cripple the country economically and militarily and that much Putin should know. Yet here we are.
March 7, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, Paul852 said: Who's shrinking? All the best military minds in the world? Who's shining? Some guy named ToastJenkins on the EMB? No serious person thinks direct NATO involvement is even an option on the table. Doesn’t matter which political party, which government agency, or which branch of the military. This is keyboard warrior stuff.
March 7, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, TEW said: For perspective, he invaded Ukraine in large part due to another line in the sand being threatened… More to the point, Putin doesn’t have much of a choice. That’s been their game plan since the Cold War. They go nuclear early. Doubly so now that they don’t have Poland etc as buffer states. Look, I get the urge to F Russia up over this, to end the Ukraine decisively. But this isn’t a board game, it’s not a card game, it’s not a video game. You’re risking billions of peoples lives if NATO gets involved. This level of risk is completely unacceptable to any sane person. Caving doesnt eliminate the risk
March 7, 20223 yr Just now, SNOORDA said: The sanctions are supposed to cripple the country economically and militarily and that much Putin should know. Yet here we are. I think the calculus was that he'd roll over Ukraine like he did in Crimea and sanctions would look largely like what the Obama coalition was able to muster. He's surrounded by yes-men and being fed knowingly bad information.
March 7, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said: Thats where you auck as a poker player. are we the chip leader? Not really. And its not a small pot, since we have folded to previous raises. Syria, etc. this is how you execute a trap when they have grown over confident and stuck their neck out. Here is where you cut their head off. Yes, we are absolutely the chip leader. Our economy is 10 times the size of Russia’s, we own Europe through Poland and several other countries are now fast tracking their membership, we have something like 800 military bases all over the world, multiple fleets of super carriers, total domination of international trade, a massive technological and material advantage, vastly better trained military, and so on and so forth. Yes, Ukraine is a small pot in the grand scheme of things. You want to use poker analogies? This is like going all in over the blinds with Russia in position behind you. It’s totally stupid. It’s why no one with a clue thinks it’s worth even considering.
March 7, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: I think the calculus was that he'd roll over Ukraine like he did in Crimea and sanctions would look largely like what the Obama coalition was able to muster. He's surrounded by yes-men and being fed knowingly bad information. Putin is pot committed no doubt. So leverage position and knock him out
March 7, 20223 yr 6 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: I think the calculus was that he'd roll over Ukraine like he did in Crimea and sanctions would look largely like what the Obama coalition was able to muster. He's surrounded by yes-men and being fed knowingly bad information. Yeah and that is embarrassing (if true) that a veteran world leader doesn’t know the capabilities of his own military. am having a tuff time swallowing that one though.
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