11 hours ago, ToastJenkins said:

Zero chance he has power if he uses them

If NATO gets involved then he won’t have power any way. He knows he can’t win a conventional war.

His calculation is that it would force the West to back down. He’s probably right. If Russia uses a tactical nuke against a western military base then NATO has to decide if they risk an escalation to nuclear Armageddon or back down.

It’s scary because it’s very possible he will actually do this. This idea that it’s a pure bluff is misguided. This has been the Russian game plan since the Cold War.

Nope he knows nato wont press into russia. Its not an invading force they will just want to push them out and contain them in russia

thats where it would end and he knows that

6 minutes ago, 20dawk4life said:

Ban plastic bags and straws nationwide to lower gas prices!!!!

I get the joke but to further use it to drive home the point... no company that owns/operates refineries are going to go through the capital intensive process of reconfiguring a refinery (or build a new one) to accommodate light crude refinement to satisfy a short term opportunity.

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

If NATO gets involved then he won’t have power any way. He knows he can’t win a conventional war.

His calculation is that it would force the West to back down. He’s probably right. If Russia uses a tactical nuke against a western military base then NATO has to decide if they risk an escalation to nuclear Armageddon or back down.

It’s scary because it’s very possible he will actually do this. This idea that it’s a pure bluff is misguided. This has been the Russian game plan since the Cold War.

Do you actually ever study any history?

5 minutes ago, toolg said:

Ukraine (and East Germany, Poland, the Baltics, Hungary, Romania, etc.) were not considered the West 30 some years ago. Ukraine belonged to the Soviet Union for much of the 20th century. Putin does not want Ukraine as a buffer, he wants to control it.

They’re still not considered part of the west geographically. But they’re moving to "the west” (euphemism for NATO and the US led economic order) politically and militarily.

He absolutely wants Ukraine as a buffer strategically. And yes of course he wants to control it, but he would probably be satisfied if it were simply neutral. The problem is that it wouldn’t end up being neutral if left to it’s own devices, so he is taking preemptive action.

1 hour ago, dawkins4prez said:

As humiliating as the actual battlefield has been and as punishing as the economic battlefield has been, the route he has taken on the information battlefield might be the most impressive after the events of the last 6 years. Again, Tucker Carslon was parroting his talking points and calling Biden a chickenshite alarmist the night before the invasion.  Putin thought he had the west flying blind with misinformation.  Now it's his own people succumbing to the west's version of events and he can't arrest them all or keep the leaks out in a tech savvy country.

Yep. Putin is finding out how the internet is a double edged sword. Payback is a beech, ain't it Vova?

 

Just now, Toastrel said:

Do you actually ever study any history?

Do you?

The Soviet game plan for Europe was combined conventional and nuclear arms since the 70’s.

It looks increasingly clear to me that;

1. Putin isn't taking advice from military experts.

2. Putin and his oligarch pals have looted Russia to the point of disaster.

3. The Russian military is performing like 3rd graders. Troops are untrained, undisciplined, and uninformed.

 

I believe the military thought they had all the supplies they needed, then when they started drawing from stores, they found them empty.

13 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I get the joke but to further use it to drive home the point... no company that owns/operates refineries are going to go through the capital intensive process of reconfiguring a refinery (or build a new one) to accommodate light crude refinement to satisfy a short term opportunity.

I do think we should ban them regardless of this but yea you’re right. 

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

Do you?

The Soviet game plan for Europe was combined conventional and nuclear arms since the 70’s.

Yes. I am a student of history. Since I like weapons, I am a student of weapons and wars.

The USSR is dead. You may have skipped some history books. The Soviet game books is gone.

There is a Russian one now, that has little bearing on the Soviet one from 50 years ago.

16 minutes ago, TEW said:

If NATO gets involved then he won’t have power any way. He knows he can’t win a conventional war.

His calculation is that it would force the West to back down. He’s probably right. If Russia uses a tactical nuke against a western military base then NATO has to decide if they risk an escalation to nuclear Armageddon or back down.

It’s scary because it’s very possible he will actually do this. This idea that it’s a pure bluff is misguided. This has been the Russian game plan since the Cold War.

If he uses a tactical nuke on a NATO military base, its all over.  WE would be fully committed at least to a full on conventional war with Russia.  He won't, trust me.

13 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Nope he knows nato wont press into russia. Its not an invading force they will just want to push them out and contain them in russia

thats where it would end and he knows that

Tell that to Iraq. If NATO gets involved in a conventional war they very well may decide to take the opportunity to end the Russian regime. It’s precisely the nuclear deterrent that even calls this into question. Otherwise we would absolutely be involved and would absolutely use the opportunity to take out Putin.

1 minute ago, TEW said:

Tell that to Iraq. If NATO gets involved in a conventional war they very well may decide to take the opportunity to end the Russian regime. It’s precisely the nuclear deterrent that even calls this into question. Otherwise we would absolutely be involved and would absolutely use the opportunity to take out Putin.

You are batshit crazy. Seriously.

NATO is going to invade Russia? Or just send in hit squads?

2 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Yes. I am a student of history. Since I like weapons, I am a student of weapons and wars.

The USSR is dead. You may have skipped some history books. The Soviet game books is gone.

There is a Russian one now, that has little bearing on the Soviet one from 50 years ago.

 

The entire country is led by Cold War era players. Putin himself was a KGB officer for the better part of 2 decades.

The idea that Russia abandoned everything from the USSR after its breakup is just flat out ignorant.

1 minute ago, barho said:

If he uses a tactical nuke on a NATO military base, its all over.  WE would be fully committed at least to a full on conventional war with Russia.  He won't, trust me.

There's only one scenario I can see him using any form of nuclear weapon unprovoked:

He actually is terminally ill and no longer cares about the ramifications of his actions. This would only be plausible if he were thoroughly sociopathic and had no interest in providing a viable world for his family to live in. It looks like he has at least 2 daughters, so I doubt it ever comes to that. Then again, there have been cases where a father snaps and kills his whole family in a murder suicide, but I still think it's highly unlikely given what we know.

3 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

You are batshit crazy. Seriously.

NATO is going to invade Russia? Or just send in hit squads?

No, NATO will not invade because Russia has nukes. That’s the whole point. No Russian nukes = NATO invasion.

The nuclear deterrent is what keeps NATO in check from the Russian perspective and out of the fight. If NATO were to join the fight, then Putin has an unacceptable probability of using those nukes because he can’t win conventionally and he knows it.

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

There's only one scenario I can see him using any form of nuclear weapon unprovoked:

He actually is terminally ill and no longer cares about the ramifications of his actions. This would only be plausible if he were thoroughly sociopathic and had no interest in providing a viable world for his family to live in. It looks like he has at least 2 daughters, so I doubt it ever comes to that. Then again, there have been cases where a father snaps and kills his whole family in a murder suicide, but I still think it's highly unlikely given what we know.

I think if he did that he'd be assassinated by his inner circle within a day. These oligarchs are in it for the money and want to live their lives, not die in a nuclear war.

Just now, TEW said:

 

The entire country is led by Cold War era players. Putin himself was a KGB officer for the better part of 2 decades.

The idea that Russia abandoned everything from the USSR after its breakup is just flat out ignorant.

An idea you just made up. Good for you. Make up another, genius.

The USSR no longer exists. It broke up into pieces and won't be coming back. Do you know anything about the Cold War? Do you know anything about how different that continent is now? Do you know anything about the Soviet goals of the 70s & 80s? Because you post as if you are clueless.

Are you even capable of learning? Seems doubtful. You are as arrogant as Putin.

33 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I figured it was covered in #1 but didn't want to get into that whole thing again. I know we went over it ad nauseum a while back. 

it was covered by #1. financing will come as profitability makes those better bets. at these oil prices our domestic supply should increase significantly - as it should.

so should investment into nuclear power. but that probably isn't going to happen.

9 minutes ago, barho said:

If he uses a tactical nuke on a NATO military base, its all over.  WE would be fully committed at least to a full on conventional war with Russia.  He won't, trust me.

I don’t trust you.

Putin made clear that if NATO gets involved he’ll use tactical nukes. and frankly that’s his only play if he wants to win.

You don’t take that chance.

Thankfully the Biden administration seems to understand this and cooler heads are prevailing.

3 minutes ago, TEW said:

I don’t trust you.

Putin made clear that if NATO gets involved he’ll use tactical nukes. and frankly that’s his only play if he wants to win.

You don’t take that chance.

Thankfully the Biden administration seems to understand this and cooler heads are prevailing.

Dude, he doesn't win in that scenario.  No one does.  You really think NATO will not hit back at a Russian base?  t!t for tat, brother.  Ain't no way he'd get away with that.  Then it can steamroll from that point.

And, I do not think NATO will get involved first.  It would be Russia attacking a base in NATO that is staging and sending weapons to Ukraine, if anything.

2 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

An idea you just made up. Good for you. Make up another, genius.

The USSR no longer exists. It broke up into pieces and won't be coming back. Do you know anything about the Cold War? Do you know anything about how different that continent is now? Do you know anything about the Soviet goals of the 70s & 80s? Because you post as if you are clueless.

Are you even capable of learning? Seems doubtful. You are as arrogant as Putin.

Putin literally gave a public speech about how the breakup of the Soviet Union was a tragedy and how he wants to rebuild it.  
 

Again, this idea that everything is different now is just ignorant. Putin wants the Soviet era empire back. That’s his goal. Strategically the game is the same, even if it isn’t the same from an ideological perspective.

29 minutes ago, TEW said:

They’re still not considered part of the west geographically. But they’re moving to "the west” (euphemism for NATO and the US led economic order) politically and militarily.

He absolutely wants Ukraine as a buffer strategically. And yes of course he wants to control it, but he would probably be satisfied if it were simply neutral. The problem is that it wouldn’t end up being neutral if left to it’s own devices, so he is taking preemptive action.

If Ukraine was left to their own devices, then yes, they would move towards "the West" (euphemism for EU, NATO, US-led influence, etc. I think we speak the same language referring to it that way.) Geography has nothing to do with it, except Ukraine shares a border with Russia. That is the big issue here.

I am puzzled trying to figure out Putin's ultimate goal here. He can't take over all of Ukraine, he doesn't have the resources. And every advance Russia has gained in the last 30 years involved contact with the West. It's going to cost them that for attacking Ukraine. Is it a land grab? Does he want Ukraine's resources? It seems the punishment for the attack isn't worth any gain from the territory. Or trying to exert his influence on a population that will largely resist. Every way I can calculate it's a net loss for Putin, bigly.

1 minute ago, barho said:

Dude, he doesn't win in that scenario.  No one does.  You really think NATO will not hit back at a Russian base?  t!t for tat, brother.  Ain't no way he'd get away with that.  Then it can steamroll from that point.

I don’t know and I don’t want to find out.