10 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I think if he did that he'd be assassinated by his inner circle within a day. These oligarchs are in it for the money and want to live their lives, not die in a nuclear war.

Very likely, but the question is, would the chain of events be already set in motion such that any coup attempts would be too little too late? Maybe the damage is limited to an extent if they act quickly enough. Doubt it'll ever come to that, but who really knows his motivations right now. Tons of speculation based on very limited information.

Just now, toolg said:

If Ukraine was left to their own devices, then yes, they would move towards "the West" (euphemism for EU, NATO, US-led influence, etc. I think we speak the same language referring to it that way.) Geography has nothing to do with it, except Ukraine shares a border with Russia. That is the big issue here.

I am puzzled trying to figure out Putin's ultimate goal here. He can't take over all of Ukraine, he doesn't have the resources. And every advance Russia has gained in the last 30 years involved contact with the West. It's going to cost them that for attacking Ukraine. Is it a land grab? Does he want Ukraine's resources? It seems the punishment for the attack isn't worth any gain from the territory. Or trying to exert his influence on a population that will largely resist. It's a net loss for Putin, bigly.

His "ultimate goal” (higher order long term thinking) is rebuilding a Russian empire. Ukraine would fall under that overarching goal.

But the timing of "why now” is because he knows Ukraine was moving towards the EU/NATO/etc world order and he couldn’t risk letting it become a permanent member of the west.

Interesting poll that shows what we already know. Republicans would be far more likely to take up arms to defend their homeland, whereas democrats would be more inclined to run like sniveling cowards:

 

10 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

it was covered by #1. financing will come as profitability makes those better bets. at these oil prices our domestic supply should increase significantly - as it should.

so should investment into nuclear power. but that probably isn't going to happen.

Only because we're stupid. 

5 minutes ago, TEW said:

Putin literally gave a public speech about how the breakup of the Soviet Union was a tragedy and how he wants to rebuild it.  
 

Again, this idea that everything is different now is just ignorant. Putin wants the Soviet era empire back. That’s his goal. Strategically the game is the same, even if it isn’t the same from an ideological perspective.

Here's a clue. The goal of the USSR was not to remake the broken up USSR that was not in existence at the time.

No, it is entirely another animal. Putin's goal - I am not sure. I am not you. However, I don't believe even he is as dumb as you, thinking he can regain a USSR. He is learning a hard lesson right now in Ukraine that shows him the folly of that path.

Just now, TEW said:

His "ultimate goal” (higher order long term thinking) is rebuilding a Russian empire. Ukraine would fall under that overarching goal.

But the timing of "why now” is because he knows Ukraine was moving towards the EU/NATO/etc world order and he couldn’t risk letting it become a permanent member of the west.

So great. Putin rebuilds a Russian empire that is shunned by most of the world. Russia is left weaker than when they started. That's the goal?

6 minutes ago, TEW said:

Putin literally gave a public speech about how the breakup of the Soviet Union was a tragedy and how he wants to rebuild it.  
 

Again, this idea that everything is different now is just ignorant. Putin wants the Soviet era empire back. That’s his goal. Strategically the game is the same, even if it isn’t the same from an ideological perspective.

Yeah but is that nationalistic lip service to rile up his support or does he truly believe it? What he says and how he runs his country are two different things. I'm no historical expert but from my POV today's Russia doesn't look all THAT much like the USSR.

2 minutes ago, toolg said:

So great. Putin rebuilds a Russian empire that is shunned by most of the world. Russia is left weaker than when they started. That's the goal?

What's your definition of "weaker"? Haven't they always been shunned in some way, shape, or form? TEW's argument is, long term, everything remains the same plus they have Ukraine. I just don't know what that buys them other than a land bridge to Crimea.

7 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

What's your definition of "weaker"? Haven't they always been shunned in some way, shape, or form? TEW's argument is, long term, everything remains the same plus they have Ukraine. I just don't know what that buys them other than a land bridge to Crimea.

No. The world opened up 30 years ago: the Berlin Wall fell, the Iron Curtain disappeared, etc. Putin risks closing the doors and shutting out Russia like they were during the Cold War.  TEW's argument is wrong, it won't be the same at all.

12 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I think if he did that he'd be assassinated by his inner circle within a day. These oligarchs are in it for the money and want to live their lives, not die in a nuclear war.

I disagree they’re all in it just for the money.

But let’s talk about the oligarchs. Which oligarchs? People talk about oligarchs but no one defines them.

Most Americans seem to think it’s the Roman Abromivich types who have power in Russia. The type of guys who took over Russian industry in the 90’s after the breakup of the USSR and want nothing more than to be CEOs and own 500 meter yachts.

But most with actual power are Putin sycophants who have similar ambitions that are beyond mere money. Sechin, Bortnikov, etc. These are the guys who have the clout to actually pull off a coup and have the backing of the FSB and military. But they’re not much different than Putin and are in fact Putin allies. Maybe they’d take the opportunity to assassinate Putin (I doubt it but it’s possible) but even if they did not much would change for Russia from our perspective. They’d still be hostile, they’d still want Ukraine and a greater Russian empire.

14 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Here's a clue. The goal of the USSR was not to remake the broken up USSR that was not in existence at the time.

No, it is entirely another animal. Putin's goal - I am not sure. I am not you. However, I don't believe even he is as dumb as you, thinking he can regain a USSR. He is learning a hard lesson right now in Ukraine that shows him the folly of that path.

Luckily Putin has given actual speeches and written actual papers to let us know. He has actual geopolitical advisors and influencers who have also given speeches and written papers. He wants the Soviet empire back — not for communist ideological regions, but for reasons of power, influence and prestige.

18 minutes ago, Kz! said:

Interesting poll that shows what we already know. Republicans would be far more likely to take up arms to defend their homeland, whereas democrats would be more inclined to run like sniveling cowards:

 

 Russia is the enemy sir. Get with the program.

16 minutes ago, toolg said:

So great. Putin rebuilds a Russian empire that is shunned by most of the world. Russia is left weaker than when they started. That's the goal?

Power.

His gambit is to reform a Russian empire and then normalize relations once there is nothing we can do about the land grab. He’s thinking in terms of decades, probably beyond his own years.

1 hour ago, mayanh8 said:

Your lack of understanding of how the oil economy works is staggering. 

Ok. Good talk.

3 minutes ago, Paul852 said:

 Russia is the enemy sir. Get with the program.

The poll didn't specify who was invading, it was just a hypothetical about if someone invaded. Obviously if Russia were to invade the US, I'd be pretty conflicted about which side to fight for. 

19 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

Yeah but is that nationalistic lip service to rile up his support or does he truly believe it? What he says and how he runs his country are two different things. I'm no historical expert but from my POV today's Russia doesn't look all THAT much like the USSR.

He’s been going for land grabs in Eastern Europe for the past 15 years. His actions say he actually believes it.

If it were all political theatre he wouldn’t be doing this. He’d say lots of mean words, condemn the US and NATO, and live happily ever after with his hundred billion dollars.

6 minutes ago, TEW said:

Power.

His gambit is to reform a Russian empire and then normalize relations once there is nothing we can do about the land grab. He’s thinking in terms of decades, probably beyond his own years.

All I can guess is Putin thinks Ukraine will roll over and the West will forget about this in a few years.... I think Putin miscalculated. But I can't predict the future. We wait and see.

25 minutes ago, toolg said:

If Ukraine was left to their own devices, then yes, they would move towards "the West" (euphemism for EU, NATO, US-led influence, etc. I think we speak the same language referring to it that way.) Geography has nothing to do with it, except Ukraine shares a border with Russia. That is the big issue here.

I am puzzled trying to figure out Putin's ultimate goal here. He can't take over all of Ukraine, he doesn't have the resources. And every advance Russia has gained in the last 30 years involved contact with the West. It's going to cost them that for attacking Ukraine. Is it a land grab? Does he want Ukraine's resources? It seems the punishment for the attack isn't worth any gain from the territory. Or trying to exert his influence on a population that will largely resist. Every way I can calculate it's a net loss for Putin, bigly.

that's not 100% true. Ukraine sits just east of the Carpathian mountains, which roughly makes up the border between Ukraine in the east and Hungary + Romania (NATO members) in the west. historically, when the West has invaded Russia, it has been over present day Poland then on through Belarus + Northern Ukraine into Russia.

this is why Russia could not tolerate Lukashenko losing the Belarusian presidential election in 2020 to a candidate that wanted to start leaning away from Russia. Because with Poland and the Baltics in NATO, they could not tolerate more of the plains between the West and Russia to be held by a potential future EU or worse NATO member.

there's definitely a mix of reasons why Russia has long demanded Ukraine not be admitted into NATO. what's stupid on his part is that Ukraine was nowhere near NATO membership because the West understood that Ukraine joining NATO would seriously escalate tensions with Moscow. and if Ukraine manages to maintain its independence its entry into NATO is going to have much more support from the West now than it would have a month ago.

this is where the propaganda from the Kremlin works: there is a kernel of truth in there wrapped in layers of misinformation and lies. does Russia have legitimate security interests in keeping Ukraine in its orbit, and out of NATO. but that does not justify a war, regardless of how many lies ("de-nazification", etc.) they tell their people. 

8 minutes ago, Kz! said:

The poll didn't specify who was invading, it was just a hypothetical about if someone invaded. Obviously if Russia were to invade the US, I'd be pretty conflicted about which side to fight for. 

No you wouldn't.

7 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Putin started this war by claiming spots of Ukraine are part of Russia because of thier thinking and way of life. 

First thing I thought was, When will he claim NYC/Portland/Vermont

9 minutes ago, TEW said:

He’s been going for land grabs in Eastern Europe for the past 15 years. His actions say he actually believes it.

If it were all political theatre he wouldn’t be doing this. He’d say lots of mean words, condemn the US and NATO, and live happily ever after with his hundred billion dollars.

Which is far different from the USSR cold war era. He takes tiny bites of other countries, he is not rolling up with the overwhelming might of the Soviet military.

They were no pushovers, like his current troops seem to be. The first time they get major resistance in that fifteen years, and they look incompetent.

He thinks he can get away with it again, however, this time, his mouth was bigger than his brain. He is losing his country.

9 minutes ago, TEW said:

I disagree they’re all in it just for the money.

But let’s talk about the oligarchs. Which oligarchs? People talk about oligarchs but no one defines them.

Most Americans seem to think it’s the Roman Abromivich types who have power in Russia. The type of guys who took over Russian industry in the 90’s after the breakup of the USSR and want nothing more than to be CEOs and own 500 meter yachts.

But most with actual power are Putin sycophants who have similar ambitions that are beyond mere money. Sechin, Bortnikov, etc. These are the guys who have the clout to actually pull off a coup and have the backing of the FSB and military. But they’re not much different than Putin and are in fact Putin allies. Maybe they’d take the opportunity to assassinate Putin (I doubt it but it’s possible) but even if they did not much would change for Russia from our perspective. They’d still be hostile, they’d still want Ukraine and a greater Russian empire.

I think it's pretty easy to define them. They're magnates of different industries who control massive amounts of economic power, influence, and money.

Where I see them being able to play a role is using their one asset - money. The Russian military apparatus is wildly corrupt. Leaders are taking money left and right. I don't think it's crazy to think they all like the prospect of being alive and enjoying their worldly spoils. Also, with how this Ukraine invasion is unfolding, it doesn't seem like many within the Russian military soldiers are filled with nationalistic zeal. I know this is oversimplifying things but it seems to me that if you convince enough leaders within the Russian military that their bread is better buttered without Putin, and promise them some money and protection, they'd find the motivation to get rid of him.

11 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Ok. Good talk.

I posted a primer later in the thread if you're interested. I doubt you'll read it but it's there.

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

that's not 100% true. Ukraine sits just east of the Carpathian mountains, which roughly makes up the border between Ukraine in the east and Hungary + Romania (NATO members) in the west. historically, when the West has invaded Russia, it has been over present day Poland then on through Belarus + Northern Ukraine into Russia.

this is why Russia could not tolerate Lukashenko losing the Belarusian presidential election in 2020 to a candidate that wanted to start leaning away from Russia. Because with Poland and the Baltics in NATO, they could not tolerate more of the plains between the West and Russia to be held by a potential future EU or worse NATO member.

there's definitely a mix of reasons why Russia has long demanded Ukraine not be admitted into NATO. what's stupid on his part is that Ukraine was nowhere near NATO membership because the West understood that Ukraine joining NATO would seriously escalate tensions with Moscow. and if Ukraine manages to maintain its independence its entry into NATO is going to have much more support from the West now than it would have a month ago.

this is where the propaganda from the Kremlin works: there is a kernel of truth in there wrapped in layers of misinformation and lies. does Russia have legitimate security interests in keeping Ukraine in its orbit, and out of NATO. but that does not justify a war, regardless of how many lies ("de-nazification", etc.) they tell their people. 

Good post, but I think you are underestimating how close Ukraine was to formal alliances with the west. Certainly this would not have happened one year from now, but EU membership was a real possibility within a few years and from there it would have been an easy transition to NATO.

5 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Which is far different from the USSR cold war era. He takes tiny bites of other countries, he is not rolling up with the overwhelming might of the Soviet military.

They were no pushovers, like his current troops seem to be. The first time they get major resistance in that fifteen years, and they look incompetent.

He thinks he can get away with it again, however, this time, his mouth was bigger than his brain. He is losing his country.

Yeah, because the USSR never invaded anyone.  

1 minute ago, TEW said:

Good post, but I think you are underestimating how close Ukraine was to formal alliances with the west. Certainly this would not have happened one year from now, but EU membership was a real possibility within a few years and from there it would have been an easy transition to NATO.

Yeah, because the USSR never invaded anyone.  

Keep making up dopey crap. All you are good at, besides being arrogant.

26 minutes ago, TEW said:

Luckily Putin has given actual speeches and written actual papers to let us know. He has actual geopolitical advisors and influencers who have also given speeches and written papers. He wants the Soviet empire back — not for communist ideological regions, but for reasons of power, influence and prestige.

Oh yes, so prestigious