5 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I think it's pretty easy to define them. They're magnates of different industries who control massive amounts of economic power, influence, and money.

Where I see them being able to play a role is using their one asset - money. The Russian military apparatus is wildly corrupt. Leaders are taking money left and right. I don't think it's crazy to think they all like the prospect of being alive and enjoying their worldly spoils. Also, with how this Ukraine invasion is unfolding, it doesn't seem like many within the Russian military soldiers are filled with nationalistic zeal. I know this is oversimplifying things but it seems to me that if you convince enough leaders within the Russian military that their bread is better buttered without Putin, and promise them some money and protection, they'd find the motivation to get rid of him.

Yeah, I think this is where you’re wrong in defining them. You’re looking at industry leaders and not political leaders.

The industry leaders are subordinate to the political leaders. The political leaders control state power and basically run a protection racket over the industry leaders. Putin is the richest man in Russia, but he’s not a business magnate.

32 minutes ago, TEW said:

I disagree they’re all in it just for the money.

But let’s talk about the oligarchs. Which oligarchs? People talk about oligarchs but no one defines them.

Most Americans seem to think it’s the Roman Abromivich types who have power in Russia. The type of guys who took over Russian industry in the 90’s after the breakup of the USSR and want nothing more than to be CEOs and own 500 meter yachts.

But most with actual power are Putin sycophants who have similar ambitions that are beyond mere money. Sechin, Bortnikov, etc. These are the guys who have the clout to actually pull off a coup and have the backing of the FSB and military. But they’re not much different than Putin and are in fact Putin allies. Maybe they’d take the opportunity to assassinate Putin (I doubt it but it’s possible) but even if they did not much would change for Russia from our perspective. They’d still be hostile, they’d still want Ukraine and a greater Russian empire.

If Putin loses his own people, the common Russian, he's gone.  Iron fist and all he has remained popular because he has generally done good by them, a modern euro-like economy, he allows the opposition to at least gripe out loud, cleaned up the chaos of the 90's mafia state, etc.  But to turn the clock back 30 years on them he will lose them and iff he loses them he will be gone, forget about how and just be assured that he will.

1 minute ago, dawkins4prez said:

If Putin loses his own people, the common Russian, he's gone.  Iron fist and all he has remained popular because he has generally done good by them, a modern euro-like economy, he allows the opposition to at least gripe out loud, cleaned up the chaos of the 90's mafia state, etc.  But to turn the clock back 30 years on them he will lose them and iff he loses them he will be gone, forget about how, and just be assured that he will.

Maybe.

But Russia also has a long history of long served tyrannical governments. And a long history of enduring horrific conditions.

I guess the question is how much of the traditional Russian spirit has been lost?

Just now, TEW said:

Maybe.

But Russia also has a long history of long served tyrannical governments. And a long history of enduring horrific conditions.

I guess the question is how much of the traditional Russian spirit has been lost?

last time it took 50 years to strangle Russia with its insular economy.  In today's global economy it can be done in 5 years this time.  At the insane pace it is unravelling you almost have to wonder if they can do it in 5 months.  So far, this is shaping up to be the most awesome display of soft power ever seen.

Just now, dawkins4prez said:

last time it took 50 years to strangle Russia with its insular economy.  In today's global economy it can be done in 5 years this time.  At the insane pace it is unravelling you almost have to wonder if they can do it in 5 months.  So far, this is shaping up to be the most awesome display of soft power ever seen.

What I worry about is Russia teaming up with China and forming an alternative financial and trade system. You could get a lot of "rogue states” plus Africa and maybe South America in on it which would cushion the economic blow in the longer term.

58 minutes ago, Kz! said:

Interesting poll that shows what we already know. Republicans would be far more likely to take up arms to defend their homeland, whereas democrats would be more inclined to run like sniveling cowards:

 

So you’re arguing that the people who hate war and love Russia would be more likely to fight the Russians? Cool story bro 

48 minutes ago, TEW said:

I disagree they’re all in it just for the money.

But let’s talk about the oligarchs. Which oligarchs? People talk about oligarchs but no one defines them.

Most Americans seem to think it’s the Roman Abromivich types who have power in Russia. The type of guys who took over Russian industry in the 90’s after the breakup of the USSR and want nothing more than to be CEOs and own 500 meter yachts.

But most with actual power are Putin sycophants who have similar ambitions that are beyond mere money. Sechin, Bortnikov, etc. These are the guys who have the clout to actually pull off a coup and have the backing of the FSB and military. But they’re not much different than Putin and are in fact Putin allies. Maybe they’d take the opportunity to assassinate Putin (I doubt it but it’s possible) but even if they did not much would change for Russia from our perspective. They’d still be hostile, they’d still want Ukraine and a greater Russian empire.

F it, I'll bite.  Lets start with a list of the ones impacted by sanctions.

Alexander Aleksandrovich Vedyakhin 
Andrey Sergeyevich Puchkov 
Yuriy Alekseyevich Soloviev
Igor Sechin 
Andrey Patrushev 
Sergei Sergeevich Ivanov 
Kirill Shamalov 
Yury Slyusar 
Petr Fradkov 
Gennady Timchenko 

59 minutes ago, Kz! said:

Interesting poll that shows what we already know. Republicans would be far more likely to take up arms to defend their homeland, whereas democrats would be more inclined to run like sniveling cowards:

 

That lines up pretty closely to the male/female ratio of the Democratic Party (56% female/42% men), and with the amount of F'ing liars in the Republican Party 

2 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

That lines up pretty closely to the male/female ratio of the Democratic Party (56% female/42% men), and with the amount of F'ing liars in the Republican Party 

Knew that one would get van's estrogen flowing.  

39 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Putin started this war by claiming spots of Ukraine are part of Russia because of thier thinking and way of life. 

First thing I thought was, When will he claim NYC/Portland/Vermont

That state is just a bunch of ghey dudes banging each other and wildlife in the forest.

 

So.... tomorrow?

1 minute ago, Kz! said:

Knew that one would get van's estrogen flowing.  

"I'd fight 'em if they came here!" 

4 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

"I'd fight 'em if they came here!" 

Van after seeing that poll:

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

it was covered by #1. financing will come as profitability makes those better bets. at these oil prices our domestic supply should increase significantly - as it should.

so should investment into nuclear power. but that probably isn't going to happen.

No. No it won't. I don't know why I have to keep saying this, but...

Oil and gas producers in the US simply can't get traditional bank financing anymore due to the adoption of ESG mandates by banks and large institutional investors. They aren't quite as screwed as coal producers, but it is getting there. Before 2019-ish, these guys could get mid-single digit debt financing in order to bring more capacity online. Remember, shale is a VERY capital intensive business as the wells have short lives -- you need to be constantly drilling. Now, if they can even get financing at all, the cost is double digits, but that financing has to come from specialty lenders that don't take institutional money (e.g., family offices). That overall pool of capital is miniscule in comparison to traditional bank financing markets. 

If you want the price of gas to go down, start petitioning your pension funds, banks, etc. to drop the ESG madness.

9 minutes ago, paco said:

That state is just a bunch of ghey dudes banging each other and wildlife in the forest.

 

So.... tomorrow?

I know where I'm going on vacation next!

8 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

"I'd fight 'em if they came here!" 

Still can't believe any self-respecting American would wear that shirt.

1 minute ago, Paul852 said:

I know where I'm going on vacation next!

fire island will miss you ... 

19 minutes ago, TEW said:

What I worry about is Russia teaming up with China and forming an alternative financial and trade system. You could get a lot of "rogue states” plus Africa and maybe South America in on it which would cushion the economic blow in the longer term.

Eh...that's an overblown risk. We played this same game in 2008/2009 (remember SDRs). The world financial market is simply to intertwined with the US Dollar for anyone to really change it unless you had all the large economies on board. They have one (China). 

But this highlights why we should be working with the Chinese to isolate Russia. China and Russia have historical animosity. Go to Xi and offer to drop all Trump era tariffs in exchange for them cutting Russia off. The Chinese will always do what's in their best economic interest -- they probably take that deal.

2 hours ago, VanHammersly said:

"I'd fight 'em if they came here!" 

Nice that Procus took this picture of Kkz and Ahkbarkadabraj at their QAtard conference 

40 minutes ago, TEW said:

What I worry about is Russia teaming up with China and forming an alternative financial and trade system. You could get a lot of "rogue states” plus Africa and maybe South America in on it which would cushion the economic blow in the longer term.

China has got its own timeline to be the #1 power in the world, its definitely not on Putin's timeline.  If they can parley this into a broken Russia on their leash that sounds like a stronger long term move than siding with this lunatic in open warfare against the west.

Have to keep the appearance of being impartial.

UN BANS staff from referring to Ukraine as a 'war' or 'invasion' in a bid to avoid angering Russia

• The UN has banned referring to Ukraine situation as a 'war' in an email 
• In the message, staff were told to call it a 'conflict' or 'military offensive' instead 
• It also discouraged staff from adding the Ukrainian flag to any accounts online

1 minute ago, Talkingbirds said:

Have to keep the appearance of being impartial.

UN BANS staff from referring to Ukraine as a 'war' or 'invasion' in a bid to avoid angering Russia

• The UN has banned referring to Ukraine situation as a 'war' in an email 
• In the message, staff were told to call it a 'conflict' or 'military offensive' instead 
• It also discouraged staff from adding the Ukrainian flag to any accounts online

How about we tell them to go f themselves. 

8 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Eh...that's an overblown risk. We played this same game in 2008/2009 (remember SDRs). The world financial market is simply to intertwined with the US Dollar for anyone to really change it unless you had all the large economies on board. They have one (China). 

But this highlights why we should be working with the Chinese to isolate Russia. China and Russia have historical animosity. Go to Xi and offer to drop all Trump era tariffs in exchange for them cutting Russia off. The Chinese will always do what's in their best economic interest -- they probably take that deal.

I’m thinking they use China more as an end around, not a direct challenge to the USD which I agree is not in the cards for some time. Kind of a shadow trade and financing arrangement. That brings Russia and China closer together and softens the blow of sanctions.

But you’re right there might be a deal to be had with China. Certainly Beijing is out for itself and would throw Russia under the bus for its own gain. My worry is that China is the greater long term threat. Russia is dangerous like a wounded animal, but doesn’t really pose a threat to US dominance. China might become that threat over the long term.

In a perfect world you can isolate Russia and get the revolution everyone wants, westernize it, then pivot Russia against China a few decades from now.  But that’s a lot of moving parts.

1 minute ago, TEW said:

I’m thinking they use China more as an end around, not a direct challenge to the USD which I agree is not in the cards for some time. Kind of a shadow trade and financing arrangement. That brings Russia and China closer together and softens the blow of sanctions.

But you’re right there might be a deal to be had with China. Certainly Beijing is out for itself and would throw Russia under the bus for its own gain. My worry is that China is the greater long term threat. Russia is dangerous like a wounded animal, but doesn’t really pose a threat to US dominance. China might become that threat over the long term.

In a perfect world you can isolate Russia and get the revolution everyone wants, westernize it, then pivot Russia against China a few decades from now.  But that’s a lot of moving parts.

The Trump tariffs really did nothing to close the trade deficit with China, and China didn't honor its agreement to buy more US exports. So you're really giving up next to nothing for now. 

18 minutes ago, TEW said:

In a perfect world you can isolate Russia and get the revolution everyone wants, westernize it

Didn't Reagan do this in the 90's

On 3/6/2022 at 11:52 AM, jsdarkstar said:

The Russian military is no match for the USA in the air, on the land or in the Sea. They are totally overrated. 

They have nuclear weapons and we lost to Afghanistan.  

1 minute ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

They have nuclear weapons and we lost to Afghanistan.  

We also have nuclear weapons. Russia also lost to Afghanistan.