16 hours ago, Abracadabra said:

Poland and U.S. play hot potato with WWIII.

This would be hilarious if it wasn't so f'ing dangerous. 

Poland knows the Russians won't go against NATO no matter what you pantie-watering morons fear.
That fear is his biggest strength.

The only times Russia "took" Poland were the great partitions when they ganged up on Poland with Germany and the Austrian Empire
and in WW2 when they again partnered with Germany, and finally were invited in to help drive the Germans out. In the Soviet-Polish
war when they went one-on-one Poland kicked their ass.

If Russia invaded Poland now they'd be met by Polish fighters who'd do to them what they did to the NSDAP pilots at
the Battle of Britain, flying Britain's outdated planes against superior German ones they took down nine for every one
of the old clunkers they lost. Add the rest of NATO and Russia won't risk getting slaughtered.

And Putin won't use nukes. He's an egomaniac who wants glory, not suicide. The fires at the nuclear plant
were a controlled action meant to scare us and they worked. 

If he has ambitions beyond Ukraine it will probably be for Finland, part of the Kievan Rus that's not part of NATO.
But even that's doubtful. The Finns out up a good fight against them in the Winter War. They are on their own though,
so if he really wants to restore old Rus boundaries, they're a prime target.

NATO should sign up Finland now. It'd send a very clear message to Putin that the longer he carries on his shenanigans
the stronger his enemies will become.

Just now, Alpha_TATEr said:

i know you're scared of progress, but yes we should. 

 

Calling something progress doesn’t make it progress. Fossil fuels are more efficient. Even at these prices. That’s just a fact.

30 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

The other action that we can take is to try and reduce demand. In the short term this is difficult, but the administration encouraging businesses to allow remote work wherever possible would help at least at the margins. 

If you want price relief, any combination of reduced demand and increased supply is what you're looking for.

How ironic is it that people have to go back to remote because of gas prices...I agree, but it is a strange world. 

1 minute ago, TEW said:

 

Calling something progress doesn’t make it progress. Fossil fuels are more efficient. Even at these prices. That’s just a fact.

and that wont last for long, alternatives will always be more expensive to start out. that will change too. 

 

suck it up. its going to happen. 

9 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

ok, thats what I thought

Locking us out of Gas, making us pay and arm and leg for it so they can shove Green stuff down our throats. 

 

dude. US oil production has been going up, including the last year under Biden.

it's just not increasing at the same pace as demand is, and that's in large part a conscious business decision by the oil industry.

this is complicated by financing having a bit more friction to it than in the past, but again that's a conscious decision by large financial institutions to adhere to ESG mandates - which should at least be suspended in the near term IMHO. 

wanting to transition off fossil fuels is still the correct long term goal, but "shoving Green stuff down our throats" is not the primary cause of gas price increases in the last year.

6 minutes ago, TEW said:

From Russia’s perspective they’re a national security threat. That’s them saying it, so take it up with the Russians.

Russia also says Ukrainians are currently being "liberated" from their fascist notzee government, so maybe, just maybe, what Russia says isn't always to be taken seriously.

1 minute ago, Bacarty2 said:

Someone want to tell you that the gas prices were rising well before the war happened.

Again, Gas never hit 3 bucks under Trump. It took Mr. Biden 3 months to hit that goal. 

And again, before you say supply and demand, the supply was MUCH HIGHER pre-covid with Trump than it is today, or even pre war under Mr. Biden

Forget lower gas prices. Biden wants to force ppl to buy Chevy Volts. This is an opportunity for him.

 

9 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Because I'm correct. It takes time to get it flowing and the sooner they start the better,  which I've said many times. We have more than most countries and this should never happen again.

U.S. oil industry prepares to boost production — but with a giant warning

Executives at some of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers said on Monday they are ramping up their crude production as U.S. gasoline prices surge to $4 a gallon amid expectations that President Joe Biden and Congress would ban imports of Russian petroleum — but the companies warned not to expect new supplies overnight.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron are both boosting oil production at the mammoth Permian Basin field in West Texas and New Mexico, strategies that both oil majors laid out last year but that have taken on new urgency because of the surge in oil prices to their highest level in 14 years.

U.S. crude oil prices jumped more than $10 overnight to $130 a barrel on news that the U.S. was considering prohibiting Russian oil imports, though prices backed off later during Monday trading. That rally has driven retail gasoline prices up more than 46 cents in the past week, reaching a national average of $4.06 a gallon, according to fuel price service GasBuddy.

Exxon has said it expected to increase its production from the Permian by 100,000 barrels per day this year, on top of a sharp ramp up last year to 460,000 barrels per day. "We’re well on our way to that,” CEO Darren Woods told an industry conference in Houston on Monday. Chevron has also said it would increase its production there by 60,000 barrels per day this year.

But even with those sharp increases, keeping a lid on oil and gasoline prices will be difficult if Russia’s 5 million barrels per day of oil exports are taken off the market. The U.S. industry imports only a modest amount of Russian oil and refined products, but trading firms around the world are beginning to shun Russian supplies as governments tighten the financial sanctions on Russia in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

5 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Whats really crazy to me is, *IF* Biden and Co can figure out how to get gas down to 2 bucks a gallon the majority of the Democratic voter would forget all the other terrible ish that has happened under his watch and he'd probably get re-elected. 

Major Crimes in Cities,  CRT, Illegals coming in by the Millions, Bring of WW3  <   Cheap Gas

well, if you're looking for confirmation bias definitely keep talking to yourself and Omega.

6 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

Gas in Sweden continues to climb.  Now $8.50 per gallon.

 

Americans don't get how good they have it.

36 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Can someone answer me this(because I truly dont know)

What if Biden wakes up, and repeals the "climate change bills" and allows America to start drilling, pumping, flowing, etc etc here stateside. 

How quick do we see a change in pricing

 

27 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

again, Asking because I dont know...

Why did the gas prices sky rocket after Biden signed his executive order on Day 1

I dont follow...

It's a number of factors. I'll try my best to answer. 

1. There are no "climate change bills" that have passed since Biden became President. There was some clean energy stuff in BBB, but that never passed. Now, Biden did sign 2 executive orders on climate -- one when he first took office, one in like December. Most of the EOs were nonsense like setting up working groups, making Kerry a climate czar. The 2 meaningful impacts were a halt on all new leases on federal lands for oil and gas exploration, and the halting of US government financing for projects (this was more the December one). The new leases thing is a nice talking point for the GOP, but it's actual impact on the market is meaningless because even if leases were granted today, they wouldn't come online for years. The oil companies have plenty of existing leases they aren't using. The second part, about financing, is the key but not because of the lack of government financing, but because of how the private sector has done the same (and was ahead of the government). So repealing those 2 EOs would have very little impact on the price of oil and gas.

2. So why have gas prices gone up under Biden? Simple -- the pandemic ended, leading to a spike in demand but supply remains constrained. Gas prices were ~$2.46 when Biden was inaugurated, which was inline or on the lower side of where they were during Trump pre-COVID (peaked over $3 in June 2018). Gas prices are a function of a lot of things, but simply put - when the pandemic happened, people stopped driving and demand collapsed. The price of gas dropped like a stone to below $2 in April 2020, and it has been rising since then. So the first point is the rise in prices has been going on since the pandemic lows under both Trump and Biden, but it has accelerated since Biden became President. It's easy to try and point to the EO, but the real reason is (i) miles driven (and therefore demand) has been steadily climbing and (ii) capacity hasn't come back to pre-pandemic levels. Let's tackle each of those separately.

3. Gas/Oil Demand -- I don't think anything other than the below can make it any clearer. Miles driven has been going straight up since Biden became President, meaning gasoline demand has been doing the same:

Now, we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic levels. But there has been a steady and rapid increase in demand. 

4. Gas/Oil Supply -- The biggest issue here is OPEC hasn't brought back its pre-pandemic production. In April 2020 they produced over 32mm barrels of oil, and then cut that to 24mm in July 2020 in reaction to the pandemic. They are back to almost 29.5mm now, but that's almost 3mm barrels (or 10%) of their production that isn't back. 

So what about non-OPEC supply? Historically, US shale producers were the swing capacity that would come online and pump when prices got up here. But those guys have been cut off from the financing markets due to the adoption of ESG standards by banks and institutional investors. Simply put -- these guys need capital to drill, and they used to be able to borrow at ~5%. Now, if they can even get financing, it's at ~15% (I know, I see the deals). One other factor that people don't discuss -- during the pandemic, a lot of the US Jones Act fleet for shipping refined petroleum products was scrapped or shipped overseas. 

So what can be done?

There's really not much the Biden administration or the government can do. The two things that would change this are (i) OPEC or other international markets pumping more or (ii) getting banks to lend to shale guys again. Here's a quick hitlist of things that would help. Amazingly, the Iran Nuclear deal might be the most likely near term catalyst.

- OPEC raises production (seems unlikely in near term)

- Iran nuclear deal (Iranian oil comes on market and pushes down prices)

- US government begins making loans to shale guys or guaranteeing loans so banks will make them (NFW thanks to people like AOC)

- Finding a way to buy from Venezuela

 

4 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

How ironic is it that people have to go back to remote because of gas prices...I agree, but it is a strange world. 

it's really a no-brainer. people who can work remote probably should, at least most of the time. I go into the office once or twice a week because face time in my role has value, but for most rank and file workers that are able to work remote a near full-time remote situation makes total sense. 

it's good for the environment, it's generally good for people's work situation to cut out commutes. there are potential downsides as it relates to isolation, but they can be mitigated by more day-drinking at local watering holes.

9 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

We need to stop relying on that evil regime as well we agree. I've also said it's not ideal but short-term I get it. My issue is long term plans aren't on the table domestically according to Biden's press secretary. 

The Senators you quoted didn't say anything about longterm domestic production, only about bringing in Venezuelan oil and they're flat-out wrong.  Pivoting from Russia to Venezuela is a smart move.

16 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Because I'm correct. It takes time to get it flowing and the sooner they start the better,  which I've said many times. We have more than most countries and this should never happen again.

IT. CAN'T. BE. DONE. WITHOUT. FINANCING.

That has nothing to do with Biden, Trump, Obama, or anything. You can thank millennial and Gen Z idiots that have pushed ESG nonsense onto the financial sector. Want guys to drill? Tell your bank to drop its ESG mandates. 

3 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

- OPEC raises production (seems unlikely in near term)

- Iran nuclear deal (Iranian oil comes on market and pushes down prices)

- US government begins making loans to shale guys or guaranteeing loans so banks will make them (NFW thanks to people like AOC)

- Finding a way to buy from Venezuela

great post as usual.

the one complicating factor with the Iran nuclear deal is that it would piss off Saudi Arabia, which we've already done for the last few years by 1. reducing to near zero drone strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen (this was Trump who did this, mind you), and 2. lifting the designation of Houthi rebels as terrorists to help aid the Iran negotiations (this was Biden). 

there are some reports that KSA might be less hostile to the Iran nuclear deal revival than one might expect because they see status quo as more risky in terms of a war between Israel/US and Iran, and the deal in theory would help reduce those tensions. but I'm skeptical. 

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

great post as usual.

the one complicating factor with the Iran nuclear deal is that it would piss off Saudi Arabia, which we've already done for the last few years by 1. reducing to near zero drone strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen (this was Trump who did this, mind you), and 2. lifting the designation of Houthi rebels as terrorists to help aid the Iran negotiations (this was Biden). 

there are some reports that KSA might be less hostile to the Iran nuclear deal revival than one might expect because they see status quo as more risky in terms of a war between Israel/US and Iran, and the deal in theory would help reduce those tensions. but I'm skeptical. 

Pretty simple. If the Saudis don't want us to do a deal with Iran, start pumping more oil now.

1 hour ago, Bacarty2 said:

Couple things here.

1) it's better then throwing a rock or shooting at the helis/jets with a hand gun

2) Because Russian technology is rubbish they have to fly much lower, slower, and more precise leaving them to be sitting ducks. 

Look how well the Ukrain's are doing with out  the Starstreak. 

Aren't you adorable 

11 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Russia also says Ukrainians are currently being "liberated" from their fascist notzee government, so maybe, just maybe, what Russia says isn't always to be taken seriously.

This is something that leaders of Russia have expressed across multiple governments. It’s not just Putin who has said it. Ukraine is the doorstep to Moscow for Western Europe. So, sorry, but this is an actual strategic concern for Russia. Always has been. Always will be. Geography matters.

11 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

 

It's a number of factors. I'll try my best to answer. 

But, but, but Tucker said it was because of Biden so you are WRONG!

Coming in here with facts, statistics and a level headed post. You know that only Tweets from random people with no background in the subject they are talking about, crude drawings from 4chan, and information from a website that looks like it was designed in 1999 are the only places that tell the truth!

26 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Because I'm correct. It takes time to get it flowing and the sooner they start the better,  which I've said many times. We have more than most countries and this should never happen again.

You're an idiot who refuses to listen to anyone who tells you something that doesn't agree with your feelers.

17 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

 

It's a number of factors. I'll try my best to answer. 

1. There are no "climate change bills" that have passed since Biden became President. There was some clean energy stuff in BBB, but that never passed. Now, Biden did sign 2 executive orders on climate -- one when he first took office, one in like December. Most of the EOs were nonsense like setting up working groups, making Kerry a climate czar. The 2 meaningful impacts were a halt on all new leases on federal lands for oil and gas exploration, and the halting of US government financing for projects (this was more the December one). The new leases thing is a nice talking point for the GOP, but it's actual impact on the market is meaningless because even if leases were granted today, they wouldn't come online for years. The oil companies have plenty of existing leases they aren't using. The second part, about financing, is the key but not because of the lack of government financing, but because of how the private sector has done the same (and was ahead of the government). So repealing those 2 EOs would have very little impact on the price of oil and gas.

2. So why have gas prices gone up under Biden? Simple -- the pandemic ended, leading to a spike in demand but supply remains constrained. Gas prices were ~$2.46 when Biden was inaugurated, which was inline or on the lower side of where they were during Trump pre-COVID (peaked over $3 in June 2018). Gas prices are a function of a lot of things, but simply put - when the pandemic happened, people stopped driving and demand collapsed. The price of gas dropped like a stone to below $2 in April 2020, and it has been rising since then. So the first point is the rise in prices has been going on since the pandemic lows under both Trump and Biden, but it has accelerated since Biden became President. It's easy to try and point to the EO, but the real reason is (i) miles driven (and therefore demand) has been steadily climbing and (ii) capacity hasn't come back to pre-pandemic levels. Let's tackle each of those separately.

3. Gas/Oil Demand -- I don't think anything other than the below can make it any clearer. Miles driven has been going straight up since Biden became President, meaning gasoline demand has been doing the same:

Now, we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic levels. But there has been a steady and rapid increase in demand. 

4. Gas/Oil Supply -- The biggest issue here is OPEC hasn't brought back its pre-pandemic production. In April 2020 they produced over 32mm barrels of oil, and then cut that to 24mm in July 2020 in reaction to the pandemic. They are back to almost 29.5mm now, but that's almost 3mm barrels (or 10%) of their production that isn't back. 

So what about non-OPEC supply? Historically, US shale producers were the swing capacity that would come online and pump when prices got up here. But those guys have been cut off from the financing markets due to the adoption of ESG standards by banks and institutional investors. Simply put -- these guys need capital to drill, and they used to be able to borrow at ~5%. Now, if they can even get financing, it's at ~15% (I know, I see the deals). One other factor that people don't discuss -- during the pandemic, a lot of the US Jones Act fleet for shipping refined petroleum products was scrapped or shipped overseas. 

So what can be done?

There's really not much the Biden administration or the government can do. The two things that would change this are (i) OPEC or other international markets pumping more or (ii) getting banks to lend to shale guys again. Here's a quick hitlist of things that would help. Amazingly, the Iran Nuclear deal might be the most likely near term catalyst.

- OPEC raises production (seems unlikely in near term)

- Iran nuclear deal (Iranian oil comes on market and pushes down prices)

- US government begins making loans to shale guys or guaranteeing loans so banks will make them (NFW thanks to people like AOC)

- Finding a way to buy from Venezuela

 

Why would the US government shy away from making loans or acting a guarantor to those loans during an energy crisis such as this? Because AOC will dissent? She can F off.

The upside far outweighs the downside in that scenario. It also shuts republicans up and improves mid term chances.

5 minutes ago, TEW said:

This is something that leaders of Russia have expressed across multiple governments. It’s not just Putin who has said it. Ukraine is the doorstep to Moscow for Western Europe. So, sorry, but this is an actual strategic concern for Russia. Always has been. Always will be. Geography matters.

IDGAF what they say their concerns are, as far as justifications for this war go, it's no better than them calling the Ukraine government a bunch of notzees. 

And this master stroke of genius will only result in further "encroachment" as other countries that were on the fence will now surely seek to join NATO to avoid a similar fate. It's entirely counter productive to their "concern" of limiting NATO's reach. I know you can't possibly bring yourself to admit Putin F'ed up in any capacity but that's only because you'd rather cheer on our enemies than be forced to consider you might actually be wrong about something.

2 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

You're an idiot who refuses to listen to anyone who tells you something that doesn't agree with your feelers.

Says the fool telling vikas about financing…

Just now, Blazehound said:

Why would the US government shy away from making loans or acting a guarantor to those loans during an energy crisis such as this? Because AOC will dissent? She can F off. 

Pretty much. There's not the votes in Congress for it, and I doubt Biden can do it by EO. I'm not even sure you'd get unanimous GOP support, let alone all the Dems that would be against it. They are all crying that "oil companies should make less money!". Which is idiotic, since refiners make their money based of crack spreads, not the price of oil. Now, the increase in the WTI/Brent spread is helping refiners, but there are times they get destroyed too. 

Oil companies aren't the ones setting gas prices, but that's too much for any politician to understand.

4 minutes ago, Blazehound said:

Why would the US government shy away from making loans or acting a guarantor to those loans during an energy crisis such as this? Because AOC will dissent? She can F off.

The upside far outweighs the downside in that scenario. It also shuts republicans up and improves mid term chances.

It's not AOC, it's Tom Steyer, and Mike Bloomberg, and other Democrat big money donors who are driving their policies. 

Just now, The_Omega said:

It's not AOC, it's Tom Steyer, and Mike Bloomberg, and other Democrat big money donors who are driving their policies. 

He is the worst...OK, bias from personal experience, but still...the worst.