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  • This will end the war:  

  • Here's the truly hysterical part -- the current situation is ideal for the US. Russia's military is engaged and has been seriously degraded to the point that they have to bring in foreign troops. We a

  • Yes, not only do I not rely on the western media, I came to Ukraine to see for myself that there are no NSDAPs or neo NSDAPs. Nor are there stacks of violence anywhere there isn't Russian troops. Nor

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6 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I'd imagine so. And now I'm reading that Zelensky has rejected it.

I know what we read on Twitter has a slight Ukrainian bias to it but the fact that Ukraine would so freely shoot that offer down has me considering that Russia may very well lose this war. And I don't just mean from a global outcome. I mean militarily speaking... which I always assumed Ukraine would eventually lose out of attrition. 

Sure feels like a 27 pt underdog is winding down the 3rd qtr and still in this.

4 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

Massive.

I keep reading this news snippets but sending is one thing.  Successfully delivering into the hands of soldiers who can use them is another.  And so is maintenance and ammunition.  I'm no war scholar, but isn't this a pretty basic worry?

9 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

Sure feels like a 27 pt underdog is winding down the 3rd qtr and still in this.

I keep reading this news snippets but sending is one thing.  Successfully delivering into the hands of soldiers who can use them is another.  And so is maintenance and ammunition.  I'm no war scholar, but isn't this a pretty basic worry?

Not as much as you'd think.

Doesn’t technology do most of the heavy lifting?

Got a banger for all the ishlibs' playlists:

You're welcome.

5 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

Doesn’t technology do most of the heavy lifting?

Ammunition is needed I'd think, but they would presumably provide that with the launchers. 

One of the reasons we've been reticent to send some weaponry is that Ukrainians aren't trained on the use of them. So they've been trying to support ways to provide Ukrainians with weapons they're ready to deploy now. 

The machines they're sending are Soviet era machines from that report, which Ukrainians I would guess are familiar with. 

To be sure, this is all just my speculation. I'm not trying to misrepresent myself as knowledgeable, just what I'm picking up from this conflict.

26 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

Sure feels like a 27 pt underdog is winding down the 3rd qtr and still in this.

I keep reading this news snippets but sending is one thing.  Successfully delivering into the hands of soldiers who can use them is another.  And so is maintenance and ammunition.  I'm no war scholar, but isn't this a pretty basic worry?

Not familiar with those particular Soviet ones, but most modern SAMs are relatively quick to lock and then fire-and-forget. Starting and driving them might even be more difficult than targeting. No clue on maintenance and reloading. 

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Would being a "neutral country" like Austria preclude Ukraine from entering a defensive alliance with regional nations like Poland and the Baltic states?

 

42 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I'd imagine so. And now I'm reading that Zelensky has rejected it.

I know what we read on Twitter has a slight Ukrainian bias to it but the fact that Ukraine would so freely shoot that offer down has me considering that Russia may very well lose this war. And I don't just mean from a global outcome. I mean militarily speaking... which I always assumed Ukraine would eventually lose out of attrition. 

Negotiations while war is ongoing go nowhere. It’s a tactic by Russia to make it look like they’re acting in good faith. 

11 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Not familiar with those particular Soviet ones, but most modern SAMs are relatively quick to lock and then fire-and-forget. Starting and driving them might even be more difficult than targeting. No clue on maintenance and reloading. 

And i's not all complex missile defense systems. I'm not an expert by any means on Soviet era weapons systems but I think this is an SA-14 based on what Google is telling me...

image.png.db296301dd665727bc86ca728a1b17a1.png

And, quite honestly, these are the types of weapons that Ukrainians would get the most fighting effectiveness out of. Things that can be operated by a one or two people, are highly mobile, and are inexpensive/easily replenished.

The key takeaway right now is that Russia is done blundering. 

1 minute ago, mayanh8 said:

And i's not all complex missile defense systems. I'm not an expert by any means on Soviet era weapons systems but I think this is an SA-14 based on what Google is telling me...

image.png.db296301dd665727bc86ca728a1b17a1.png

Oh that's my fault then, i assumed these were SAM batteries the way they were being referred to in contrast to stingers. Yeah technically these are all "SAMs" but I assumed the former when i read the tweet.

4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Oh that's my fault then, i assumed these were SAM batteries the way they were being referred to in contrast to stingers. Yeah technically these are all "SAMs" but I assumed the former when i read the tweet.

It's a mix. As per Google this is an SA-10...

image.png.652a6ee421f14392ad0c412939873722.png

Less mobile and probably an easier target to hit. I'd assume you'd have to be more strategic with these. Constantly moving them and never letting them loiter after turning them on to engage a target.

2 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

It's a mix. As per Google this is an SA-10...

image.png.652a6ee421f14392ad0c412939873722.png

Less mobile and probably an easier target to hit. I'd assume you'd have to be more strategic with these. Constantly moving them and never letting them loiter after turning them on to engage a target.

Yeah that's more what I pictured, and what I assume most people would, when hearing "SAM".

13 minutes ago, Bill said:

Negotiations while war is ongoing go nowhere. It’s a tactic by Russia to make it look like they’re acting in good faith. 

I tend to agree. Most of the areas where any "progress" has gotten reported on are things I cannot imagine Putin would accept.

27 minutes ago, Kz! said:

Got a banger for all the ishlibs' playlists:

You're welcome.

That's dope AF

 

10 minutes ago, Bill said:

The key takeaway right now is that Russia is done blundering. 

how so?

1 minute ago, dawkins4prez said:

 

how so?

I think he meant they are currently blundering.

The commentary on the mud is one of my favorite parts of Ukraine twitter.

34 minutes ago, Kz! said:

Got a banger for all the ishlibs' playlists:

You're welcome.

If the Eagles came out on the field for a game while this was playing they would win by 30 points

6 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

 

how so?

They pivoted from an asinine light airborne infantry attack to Kiev to their standard arty the hell out of things.  Also looking at the maps the units going towards Kiev have been reinforced. 
 

If you look at the south, those units are making serious gains, and that’s because they’re doing the whole armored infantry that is Russia’s bread and butter. And the units coming to Kiev from the east are armored infantry. 
 

To put it in football terms, they started off the game throwing deep. That didn’t work. So they’re shifting to a power run game with an occasional play action. 

8 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I think he meant they are currently blundering.

I mean, he said they're "done" blundering. which means he thinks they're starting to change tactics. 

When the veil slips. 

9 minutes ago, Bill said:

They pivoted from an asinine light airborne infantry attack to Kiev to their standard arty the hell out of things.  Also looking at the maps the units going towards Kiev have been reinforced. 
 

If you look at the south, those units are making serious gains, and that’s because they’re doing the whole armored infantry that is Russia’s bread and butter. And the units coming to Kiev from the east are armored infantry. 
 

To put it in football terms, they started off the game throwing deep. That didn’t work. So they’re shifting to a power run game with an occasional play action. 

Isn't this more a function of them meeting differing levels of resistance? Presumably because northern and western cities like Kiev having easier access to supply routes compared to those southern/eastern cities?

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

Isn't this more a function of them meeting differing levels of resistance? Presumably because northern and western cities like Kiev having easier access to supply routes compared to those southern/eastern cities?

The south was always going to be easier for Russia. My understanding is that the troops out of Crimea were much more professional than those used in the north, and the terrain is much harder to defend. I don't think Ukraine intended to waste a lot of resources trying to stop advances considering how open it is, they hunkered down in cities. Nonetheless, the stand in Kharkiv I think has really upended Russia's expectations of a quicker war, as it would have been much easier to advance on Kyiv from the south. 

The north has a lot of marshes and wetlands. The timing of the invasion and that it's been delayed is much to the advantage of Ukraine. The cold snap actually probably helped Russia as it kept some areas that would have been really muddy frozen, even though they then have to deal with those elements. 

Again, I'm very much a layman at this. But this is what I'm picking up. YMMV.

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