October 1, 20223 yr The only way out of this that doesn't end in a years long liquidation of fighting age Russian males is if a large enough group of people in the ruling elite decide it's not in their best interest for Putin to remain in power. Otherwise Putin will continue to throw poor, untrained SOB's to the wolves in order to delay the inevitable... which is the total defeat of the Russian army. He's run out of professional, combat ready troops. The only thing he has left to use are conscripts combined with mothballed military hardware. He'll never use nukes. And, if he does, it will only accelerate the Russian defeat. NATO would immediately engage and there would be no Russian left alive in Ukraine within a matter of days.
October 1, 20223 yr 23 hours ago, TEW said: Insanity. If Ukraine is winning the war without our intervention then there is no reason to enter a hot war with a country that has thousands of nukes and would be forced to use them. Russia has serious problems long term: their demographics are awful even by European standards. Biden is actually doing a good job here. Fight the proxy war and leave it at that. Pressure their economy. Lean on them is all you have to do. Even if you presuppose that we will have to fight them now or later, which is of course a false dichotomy, it would be to our advantage to fight them later when they have an older population, supply chains aren’t as strained, Europe has greater energy security, and our technological advantage is even greater. Reality. Welet Ukraine in NATO and Putin withdraws his troops and this war is over. He’s a coward and has no hope of victory if he goes against NATO, and he knows it.
October 2, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Gannan said: Reality. Welet Ukraine in NATO and Putin withdraws his troops and this war is over. He’s a coward and has no hope of victory if he goes against NATO, and he knows it. Hence the risk of nuclear escalation. That’s his only option vs NATO. He’d go tactical, probably vaporize thousands of people, and then you have to ask yourself if you’re going to respond in kind? It gets out of control very quickly when all you have to do is just keep doing what you’ve been doing and have no risk of nuclear war.
October 2, 20223 yr I suspect Putin is unable to even get his nukes off the ground, or ship, or sub, or wherever he tries to deploy them from. I think the nuclear warheads will be carried by obsolete missiles which wont reach their targets. Thats if he can even fire them before his launch sites are all destroyed.
October 2, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, TEW said: Hence the risk of nuclear escalation. That’s his only option vs NATO. He’d go tactical, probably vaporize thousands of people, and then you have to ask yourself if you’re going to respond in kind? It gets out of control very quickly when all you have to do is just keep doing what you’ve been doing and have no risk of nuclear war. I believe that Biden responded to a question about this. He made clear that if Putin decided to use a tactical nuke, the US would immediately respond with conventional weapons/response. Which is more than fine to deal with Russia.
October 2, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, TEW said: Hence the risk of nuclear escalation. That’s his only option vs NATO. He’d go tactical, probably vaporize thousands of people, and then you have to ask yourself if you’re going to respond in kind? It gets out of control very quickly when all you have to do is just keep doing what you’ve been doing and have no risk of nuclear war. I think the way Russians think and act and the way you think they think and act are two different things. Out of everyone on this board who would get tactical nuked, I'm pretty sure I'm the most at risk. And I'm saying he won't go nuke. You're buying the bluff.
October 2, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, Bill said: I think the way Russians think and act and the way you think they think and act are two different things. Out of everyone on this board who would get tactical nuked, I'm pretty sure I'm the most at risk. And I'm saying he won't go nuke. You're buying the bluff. Word
October 2, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Huh. It turns out the autocratic nationalist xenophobic government invading independent nations under false pretenses were the real NSDAPs all along. Who could have guessed?
October 2, 20223 yr 23 minutes ago, dawkdaballhawk said: That’s all? Not that I think they will, but Russia would only use nukes because they're desperate and have no other means of "winning". NATO doesn't have that problem given their conventional tech isn't from the mid 80s.
October 2, 20223 yr 7 hours ago, Bill said: I think the way Russians think and act and the way you think they think and act are two different things. Out of everyone on this board who would get tactical nuked, I'm pretty sure I'm the most at risk. And I'm saying he won't go nuke. You're buying the bluff. Well, Russia said for years that Ukraine was a vital nation security interest and strategic concern, and then they invaded. They’ve said for years that tactical nukes are going to be their default response and are broadcasting that loud and clear. Maybe it’s a bluff, maybe not, but you’d have to be absolutely batsh** insane to take that risk. We spent the entire Cold War avoiding this exact situation for good reason dude.
October 2, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, TEW said: Well, Russia said for years that Ukraine was a vital nation security interest and strategic concern, and then they invaded. They’ve said for years that tactical nukes are going to be their default response and are broadcasting that loud and clear. Maybe it’s a bluff, maybe not, but you’d have to be absolutely batsh** insane to take that risk. We spent the entire Cold War avoiding this exact situation for good reason dude. Russia has been saying that about Ukraine and Russian military strategy. What you haven't said about Ukraine and Russian military strategy is "TEW was right again".
October 2, 20223 yr 43 minutes ago, TEW said: Well, Russia said for years that Ukraine was a vital nation security interest and strategic concern, and then they invaded. They’ve said for years that tactical nukes are going to be their default response and are broadcasting that loud and clear. This makes absolutely no sense. We've all said things that we followed through on and things we didn't. It's one thing to follow through on a promise to invade Ukraine when you're convinced it will end in success. It's something completely different to follow through on a promise when you're convinced it will end with the collective demise of you and your entire country. Your fear induced allergy to standing up to genocide is completely irrational.
October 2, 20223 yr 6 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: This makes absolutely no sense. We've all said things that we followed through on and things we didn't. It's one thing to follow through on a promise to invade Ukraine when you're convinced it will end in success. It's something completely different to follow through on a promise when you're convinced it will end with the collective demise of you and your entire country. Your fear induced allergy to standing up to genocide is completely irrational. What if NATO said they would only respond with conventional weapons?
October 2, 20223 yr He's got nowhere to go without looking weak? Good thing Putin has looked so strong up until this point.
October 2, 20223 yr 20 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: This makes absolutely no sense. We've all said things that we followed through on and things we didn't. It's one thing to follow through on a promise to invade Ukraine when you're convinced it will end in success. It's something completely different to follow through on a promise when you're convinced it will end with the collective demise of you and your entire country. Your fear induced allergy to standing up to genocide is completely irrational. Putin says lots of things. Many of which are outright lies and bluffs.
October 2, 20223 yr From what I've heard, through the back channels the US told Russia that if their tactical nukes move in any way then they're going to be taken out by missile strikes. It's pointless, anyway. He's not going to use them. When someone wants to shoot, they don't threaten to do so. They just do it.
October 2, 20223 yr 20 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: This makes absolutely no sense. We've all said things that we followed through on and things we didn't. It's one thing to follow through on a promise to invade Ukraine when you're convinced it will end in success. It's something completely different to follow through on a promise when you're convinced it will end with the collective demise of you and your entire country. Your fear induced allergy to standing up to genocide is completely irrational. You don’t think Putin and his goons will see the US entering the war and Russia’s total defeat as an existential threat on a personal level?
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