October 2, 20223 yr 26 minutes ago, TEW said: You don’t think Putin and his goons will see the US entering the war and Russia’s total defeat as an existential threat on a personal level? Maybe I've lost the trail, but I thought the debate we're toying with here is Russia potentially using nukes on Ukraine because their invasion is failing miserably. And their use of nukes would be a catalyst for the west to get involved. So if they dont want the "existential threat" of Russia's total defeat, they could just...not use nukes. Obviously the world isn't gonna be complacent if. a land-grabbing kleptocrat uses nukes to commit genocide against a relatively peaceful neighbor. He'd become an existential threat to the world.
October 2, 20223 yr 35 minutes ago, TEW said: You don’t think Putin and his goons will see the US entering the war and Russia’s total defeat as an existential threat on a personal level? No. When the other side has nukes you don't use nukes. So long as everyone who has fo push the nuke button (newsflash: it's more than just Putin) has the ability to so much as walk away, nukes are off the table. Then add in the fact that any of them could make a political move for power at that time and it just detracts from the risk. An existential threat to Russia makes Putin the fall guy. That's about it. People generally like being alive. Even low end drug dealers who have absolutely nothing to live for will sing like a canary when you tell them the alternative is a few years of three hots, a cot, and all the sex they can handle. Now change low level drug dealer to billionaire and the alternative is you're dead. And that's why Putin is where he is and why he stayed. He made people rich and turned a blind eye to corruption, not because of his ideology. His worst fear isnt a foreign threat to Russia; it's getting dragged through the street. Going nuke all but guarantees the latter. If he was going to go nuke, he would have done it in March. Seriously, don't ever play poker with someone who knows what they're doing.
October 2, 20223 yr Breakthrough at Kherson along the river. Last I heard was 25km. Pretty much the worst place for the Orcs because if it persists they'll be encircled. The only bridge that is standing is pedestrian only thanks to HIMARS, so if the Orcs want to get across to safety they have to ditch their equipment and walk.
October 2, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, TEW said: Well, Russia said for years that Ukraine was a vital nation security interest and strategic concern, and then they invaded. They’ve said for years that tactical nukes are going to be their default response and are broadcasting that loud and clear. Maybe it’s a bluff, maybe not, but you’d have to be absolutely batsh** insane to take that risk. We spent the entire Cold War avoiding this exact situation for good reason dude. Maybe because back than our tech was relatively equal, so Russia presented a threat. Now? Russia still has all the same OLD stuff. Not much to worry about.
October 2, 20223 yr Honestly i think a cold war direct confrontation with the soviets in the 80s would have been a bloodbath. The Russians have been coasting since 1945 that they throw numbers at problems, but we're learning that numbers mean jack and combined arms is everything, not to mention lend lease bailed them out equipment wise. It's like when the Soviets built their high altitude intercepter Mig that could scorch anything the US had so we made the F-15, which has the most lopsided k/d ratio in the history of air warfare, and then we found out their interceptor Mig was dog ish. This was pretty much the cycle of cold war weapons: Russia freaks out and lies about capabilities. The US freaks out and builds an incomprehensible super weapon. Russia freaks out and lies about capabilities. Rinse. Repeat. The only thing the Soviets had on us was a better IR AAM and we found out when Germany reunified, so then we upgraded the AIM-9 and made it better than theirs.
October 3, 20223 yr Almost all Russian troops in Lyman successfully ‘redeployed’ to body bags or captivity, Ukraine says https://news.yahoo.com/almost-russian-troops-lyman-successfully-103600882.html That's a headline.
October 3, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Nukes flying yet? no, ok back to football Bread and circuses!
October 3, 20223 yr 9 hours ago, HazletonEagle said: Maybe because back than our tech was relatively equal, so Russia presented a threat. Now? Russia still has all the same OLD stuff. Not much to worry about. They don’t pose much of a threat conventionally, that much is clear now. Their modernization programs over the last decade have clearly failed. But nukes are a different ball game. They have delivery systems like cruise missiles which will be extremely difficult to stop.
October 3, 20223 yr Ukraine in NATO will be a chip in the final negotiation. Whoever takes over for Putin when he falls will have to accept it. Putin's gamble will result in three nations being added to NATO and his own fall.
October 3, 20223 yr @Abracadabra I hope you're prepared for a lot of great news from the Ukrainian side.
October 3, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, mayanh8 said: "We officially annex everything that Ukraine won't eventually take from us." Mapmakers will be busy redrawing in the next few days. They might want to take a vacation until this thing blows over.
October 3, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, TEW said: They don’t pose much of a threat conventionally, that much is clear now. Their modernization programs over the last decade have clearly failed. But nukes are a different ball game. They have delivery systems like cruise missiles which will be extremely difficult to stop. Thats what they have you believing anyway.... Probably not though.
October 3, 20223 yr When Kherson is liberated I fear for whatever war crimes the Russians left behind.
October 3, 20223 yr If their track record in this "special military operation" is any indication, this is probably how their "tactical" missile launches will look like...
October 3, 20223 yr Yeah I am very skeptical that Russia has had the engineering brainpower over the last 15-20 years necessary to create a torpedo that can carry a nuclear warhead to coastal cities 1000m below the sea at 70 knots. My guess is that whatever funding this project had was funneled into corrupt pockets at a similar rate .. 40% off the top to the commanders, 30% to propaganda, and 30% to build a Potemkin prototype.
October 3, 20223 yr "wait until the 10s of thousands of modern BTRs and T-90s are unlocked by the Kremlin! then those Ukrainians will be pushed back! it's all just a big trap!!"
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