November 12, 20223 yr 12 minutes ago, Arthur Jackson said: That's awesome - and totally fits in with the rest of his tripe. I wonder if he carries papers around in his car that he printed off the internet and tries to read to cops. Oh he does. Took me a minute to find but this was from awhile back: On 1/21/2022 at 7:55 AM, Abracadabra said: I do. I've rebutted the presumption created by that document using the 1779 Naturalization Act where I declare, record, and publish my birthright political status as a Connecticuter. Hunt copied that document and posted it in that thread if you're interested in losing a few braincells.
November 12, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, DEagle7 said: Oh he does. Took me a minute to find but this was from awhile back: Hunt copied that document and posted it in that thread if you're interested in losing a few braincells. Sad part is he doesn't believe any of it, he just wants to feel special because his life is so lacking.
November 12, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said: I don't see how or why Ukraine would want to give up on its claims on Crimea. Nor do I think it makes sense to allow Russia to bolster its presence there for the next 7 years. They’re in an odd situation. They are the stronger military and, given ample time, look like they can take back all annexed lands including Crimea. But their strength is being subsidized by the West so it’s not clear how much of a say they truly have (especially if they at least go back to pre-invasion boundaries). I think the real question (no offense to Ukrainians everywhere who have laid down their lives so we can have this discussion) is do WE want to subsidize an assault on Crimea. At this point, I think the West and Ukraine need to continue to send Russia a message and Crimea to me is where the exclamation point would historically be made. Based on what we’re hearing from other Ukrainians, they also want to push for Crimea; which means this potential solution is a West-led construct. The West needs a strong enough reason to push for Crimea.
November 12, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said: I don't see how or why Ukraine would want to give up on its claims on Crimea. Nor do I think it makes sense to allow Russia to bolster its presence there for the next 7 years. I guess an option could be that Ukraine can pursue Crimea without additional Western support once pre-invasion boundaries are restored, with the expectation that the West would step in again if those boundaries get threatened again. They’d probably go for that now that they know they have an excellent military but not sure we would.
November 12, 20223 yr 24 minutes ago, Thrive said: I guess an option could be that Ukraine can pursue Crimea without additional Western support once pre-invasion boundaries are restored, with the expectation that the West would step in again if those boundaries get threatened again. They’d probably go for that now that they know they have an excellent military but not sure we would. The U.S. has always been walking a fine line in this war. At the end of the day, if Russia believes this is an existential conflict, then nukes are on the table in their eyes.
November 12, 20223 yr 27 minutes ago, Mlodj said: The U.S. has always been walking a fine line in this war. At the end of the day, if Russia believes this is an existential conflict, then nukes are on the table in their eyes. We will keep walking that fine line.
November 12, 20223 yr 4 hours ago, DEagle7 said: ...if you're interested in losing a few braincells. I'm not. These people are a dime a dozen and I've seen it all before. The bigger question is - what the bloody hell is a "Connecticuter"? Wouldn't c*nt be shorter?
November 12, 20223 yr Russia is already constructing defensive positions in Crimea. If it was an existential level threat, they wouldn't be taking conventional war fighting measures. Also i can guarantee that any peace deal not including Crimea being returned to Ukraine would be wildly unpopular in Ukraine. Also I think it's a bit exuberant to think that there will be a winter lull at all, let alone one that is perfect for negotiations.
November 12, 20223 yr 8 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Weird that just a handful of weeks ago like 99% of these people rejoicing in the streets voted to become part of Russia. Something doesn’t seem right.
November 12, 20223 yr 17 minutes ago, Jsvand12 said: Weird that just a handful of weeks ago like 99% of these people rejoicing in the streets voted to become part of Russia. Something doesn’t seem right. Yeah, strange how people behave when Russian military is going door to door getting people out to vote for Russian annexation.
November 12, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, Bill said: If it was an existential level threat, they wouldn't be taking conventional war fighting measures. We usually say "Russia" when discussing this, but we're really dealing with the whims of one man. That is scary.
November 12, 20223 yr 50 minutes ago, Mlodj said: We say usually say "Russia" when discussing this, but we're really dealing with the whims of one man. That is scary. Yes, and no. The doctrinal level of Russian escalation is arty, then chem/bio, and then nuke. They hit step two in Syria three times, and even then in a country no one gives a F about, the US, France, and Britain eventually responded. Self preservation is a hell of a drug. Putin is aware of the risks to him if he escalates. If he could have gotten away with it, he would have already escalated at Bakhmut. The decision to vacate Kherson came from the Kremlin, but was announced by the military. We know who is really pulling the strings on an operational standpoint. Putin's off ramp in the event of an L is for him to make the military the scape goat. He's not a Soviet Premier, he's s Russian Tsar. Another thing we have going for us is that their version of NCA requires five authorizations to go nuke, versus our two. Something i learned being in this place is that to Russians, yes never means yes and no never means no like it does to us in the western world. They mean maybe. I think a peace deal would be temporary. The best bet would be to get Russia out of the pre-2014 borders, and then immediately get some type of mutual defense treaty with Ukraine and some other powers, otherwise it's going to keep happening over and over.
November 13, 20223 yr 44 minutes ago, Bill said: Something i learned being in this place is that to Russians, yes never means yes and no never means no like it does to us in the western world. They mean maybe. Thank you for the firsthand info.
November 13, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, Bill said: Russia is already constructing defensive positions in Crimea. If it was an existential level threat, they wouldn't be taking conventional war fighting measures. Also i can guarantee that any peace deal not including Crimea being returned to Ukraine would be wildly unpopular in Ukraine. Also I think it's a bit exuberant to think that there will be a winter lull at all, let alone one that is perfect for negotiations. Russia wont give crimea back. They need that warm water port. So they will have to be removed by force
November 13, 20223 yr 14 hours ago, Bill said: Also i can guarantee that any peace deal not including Crimea being returned to Ukraine would be wildly unpopular in Ukraine. No doubt. However, the only real option that includes an offramp for Putin is Crimea staying Russian so it may very well be the diplomatic price that is paid in return for peace. Not saying I agree with approach but I'm absolutely sure it is one of the options being considered. The alternative is to push forward and bring Putin to his knees which would be very risky or just make it a super long haul battle of attrition at a massive cost and with a big risk. In any case, I agree 100% with you that whatever deal is ultimately stuck it should be seen as temporary.
November 13, 20223 yr The "operational pause" that would come with such a deal would only benefit Russia. Ukraine is the side with leverage.
November 13, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: The "operational pause" that would come with such a deal would only benefit Russia. Ukraine is the side with leverage. Taking Crimea back and then stopping is also going to be an "operational pause" albeit a more palatable one though coming at significantly higher risk. There isn't an easy out here.
November 13, 20223 yr I think when people think about an offramp, they are looking at what they would accept as an offramp. After Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan we all wondered why we sacrificed American lives for nothing and what went wrong. So if the shoe was on the other foot, we would at the very least accept Crimea, because it is at least something. You have to turn it around and look at the Russian way of thinking. They're the most pragmatic of people. They, as a whole, do not talk about their war dead the same way that the Americans do. It's a different culture. Giving Putin an off ramp is, to them, a sign of weakness that they will try to seize down the road. You can't take the Russians word for it. You can't let them save face, because, to them, you'll have egg on your own. Since the time of Ivan the Terrible, all they understand are two things: love of a strong ruler, and force. In the last six months, I've talked to a lot of people with decades of experience in this. It took me awhile to wrap my head around it, but when i did, it gave me some perspective. It's a unique culture, but one that's built on projection rather than actualities.
November 13, 20223 yr Yes, there is higher upside risk to capitulating in any way to Russia. It's risky either way. But you either smother the bear to death or let it limp away only to return later.
November 13, 20223 yr 43 minutes ago, Bill said: I think when people think about an offramp, they are looking at what they would accept as an offramp. After Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan we all wondered why we sacrificed American lives for nothing and what went wrong. So if the shoe was on the other foot, we would at the very least accept Crimea, because it is at least something. You have to turn it around and look at the Russian way of thinking. They're the most pragmatic of people. They, as a whole, do not talk about their war dead the same way that the Americans do. It's a different culture. Giving Putin an off ramp is, to them, a sign of weakness that they will try to seize down the road. You can't take the Russians word for it. You can't let them save face, because, to them, you'll have egg on your own. Since the time of Ivan the Terrible, all they understand are two things: love of a strong ruler, and force. In the last six months, I've talked to a lot of people with decades of experience in this. It took me awhile to wrap my head around it, but when i did, it gave me some perspective. It's a unique culture, but one that's built on projection rather than actualities. funny you say that because I've always kinda echoed that in my view of Russia. Russia's strongman personality consumes any form of government they pretend to be playing. Communism & capitlaism proved to be the same farce, in the end Russians acted like Russians either way.
November 13, 20223 yr 20 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said: funny you say that because I've always kinda echoed that in my view of Russia. Russia's strongman personality consumes any form of government they pretend to be playing. Communism & capitlaism proved to be the same farce, in the end Russians acted like Russians either way. Communism is supposed to be an international movement, which is why communists try to help other communist governments succeed.
November 13, 20223 yr The only solution that doesn’t amount to a pause is to invade Russia and I don’t think anyone in here is thinking in those terms. Am I wrong?
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