all part of putin's plan. 

Ukraine Confirms St Petersburg Attack, Claims Drone Flew Over Putin’s Valdai Residence

Kyiv Post sources did not disclose the type of drone used or its payload but did say it may have been "carrying treats.” St Petersburg lies some 1000km from Ukraine.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885

3 hours ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

all part of putin's plan. 

It’s the rope-a-dope…

Rope Ukraine into expending all their resources.

Dope western support with propaganda to make us dysfunctional to the point our house of reps can’t pass a bill to help Ukraine defend themselves.

 

7 hours ago, barho said:

Non stop accurate fire.  Incredible.  I spotted one miss.  LOL.

The optics and gun stabilization systems on modern Western armored vehicles are amazing.  Look up the Battle of 73 Easting to get an idea what an incredible advantage they have been in actual combat versus Russian/Soviet stuff. Having said that, they need to figure out some way to counter all of the drones now floating over the battlefield.  Preferably non-kinetic.

16 hours ago, Mlodj said:

The optics and gun stabilization systems on modern Western armored vehicles are amazing.  Look up the Battle of 73 Easting to get an idea what an incredible advantage they have been in actual combat versus Russian/Soviet stuff. Having said that, they need to figure out some way to counter all of the drones now floating over the battlefield.  Preferably non-kinetic.

If anyone has 45 minutes to kill:

(Eagle troop was commanded by Philadelphia’s own, then Capt. HR McMaster)

Ukraine drones hit St Petersburg gas terminal in Russia

An explosion at a major gas export terminal near the city of St Petersburg in Russia was carried out by Ukrainian drones, BBC News has been told.

The blast caused a large fire at the Ust-Luga terminal, but no injuries, Russian officials said.

An official source in Kyiv said the "special operation" of the SBU security service masterminded the attack, with drones that worked "on target".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68046347?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Russia may be forming air assault brigades for landings in Ukrainian rear - ISW

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The Russian army may be forming air assault brigades that will act as specialized units that can conduct landings and reconnaissance behind Ukrainian lines.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said this in its new report, according to Ukrinform.

Russian sources noted that this is not a new concept for the Russian military and drew parallels to Soviet operations in Afghanistan.

One Russian source noted that air assault brigades within ground formations would be able to carry out landings in Ukrainian near-rear areas without parachutes, presumably by landing helicopters in near-rear areas for the rapid deployment of personnel, as was the case during the initial fighting for Hostomel airport near Kyiv on February 24, 2022.

Russian sources claimed that such an air assault brigade, the 49th Separate Air Assault Brigade, is already active in the Zaporizhzhia direction as part of the 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District).

Air assault brigades exist within the modern Russian army as part of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), so the suggestion that Russian ground formations may be trying to implement these formations is noteworthy, ISW analysts said.

ISW has previously observed instances of the formation of reconnaissance and assault brigades within combined arms formations and assessed that the creation of such specialized formations is meant to respond to specific tactical challenges that Russian forces have faced thus far in Ukraine.

"The deployment of air assault brigades in isolation from the wider VDV force structure, however, will likely mean that these specialized air assault brigades will be used as yet another means of conducting attritional infantry-led frontal assaults on Ukrainian fortified positions in the short term,” the ISW said.

As Ukrinform reported, the Defense Forces of Ukraine eliminated nearly 370,000 Russian invaders from February 24, 2022, to January 14, 2024, including 840 occupiers in the past day alone.

 

Alcoholism Surges in Russia Amid Ukraine War

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Alcohol dependence in Russia has increased for the first time in a decade, according to data from Russia's state statistics service.

Russian newspaper Kommersant cited Rosstat's figures from its "Healthcare in Russia-2023" handbook, which was published in December. It showed that in 2022—the year Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began—54,200 patients were diagnosed with alcohol dependence, of whom 12,900 were diagnosed with alcohol psychosis (a condition accompanied by hallucinations, delusions, mood swings, outbursts of violence or aggression and other symptoms).

Levels had been consistently dropping for a decade, between 2010 and 2021, from 153,900 to 53,300 people, but they are now back on the rise as of 2022, the statistics show.

Russia's health ministry previously said the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the trend toward a decrease in alcohol consumption and mortality directly related to drinking. The ministry said that over the past 15 years, mortality from alcohol poisoning had decreased from 15 per 100,000 to seven per 100,000.

Experts interviewed by Kommersant attributed the recent increase in alcohol dependence in Russia to the COVID-19 pandemic, "socioeconomic shocks," and an "intensification of geopolitical confrontations."

Newsweek has contacted Russia's health ministry for comment by email.

In April 2023, the British Ministry of Defense said an "extremely high" number of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine were believed to be dying due to alcohol abuse.

The ministry made the assessment in an intelligence update on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying that "pervasive alcohol abuse" among Russian soldiers has been linked to an "extremely high" number of "incidents, crimes and deaths."

Russian commanders likely see the issue as "particularly detrimental" to the performance of Moscow's troops, the U.K. ministry added.

A "significant minority"of Russian casualties can be linked to non-combat causes, including alcohol, as well as other factors such as road accidents and hypothermia, the intelligence update said.

Alcoholism is also believed to be pervasive among Russian elites. Independent Russian news outlet Verstka reported in June 2023 that Russian officials, politicians and businesspeople were drinking more alcohol to deal with stress.

Politicians and "members of the elite" have become "more drunk" since the war in Ukraine began, the publication reported, citing people close to the Kremlin, parliament and regional authorities.

"Governors are slipping [missing] meetings and using illegal substances," one source said. "Meetings are being disrupted and people are getting drunk at events."

 

Ukraine Situation Report: Drones Strike Russian City Of Voronezh

 

 

Quote

Russian authorities declared a state of emergency in the city of Voronezh in southern Russia after what they described as a Ukrainian drone attack overnight. It appears that the airbase close to the city may have been the target, which would suggest that Kyiv is continuing its attacks on Russian airpower, using a variety of means to ensure Russian aircraft are under threat in the air and on the ground.

The Russian news outlet Shot reported that at least 15 explosions were heard near the airbase and some drone debris fell onto a nearby apartment building.

Residents from at least one apartment building in the city were evacuated after the debris started a fire and an explosion blew out windows, according to the mayor of Voronezh, Vadim Kstenin.

The governor of the region of Voronezh, Alexander Gusev, said a girl was injured when drone debris fell onto her apartment building.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, five drones were destroyed overnight over the Voronezh region, while another four were brought down in the nearby Belgorod region.

The Russian airbase near the city, Voronezh-Baltimor, is primarily home to Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers, which have been extensively used in the war in Ukraine. The base is located roughly 100 miles from the Ukrainian border and is seen as a critical installation for Russian military operations in Ukraine.

There has been no immediate comment from Ukraine.

As well as continuing Ukrainian efforts to ‘bring the war home’ to Russia, drone strikes like this offer a response to the Kremlin’s ongoing winter campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.

Before diving into more developments from the conflict in Ukraine, The War Zone readers can review our previous coverage here.

 

Just now, paco said:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-drones-strike-russian-city-of-voronezh

ok, seriously, just a two-hour lift of abra's suspension. 

 

please mods !!!!!!!!!!

Russia Drops Kalibr Missiles on Own Territory Twice in One Day

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Russia has dropped Kalibr missiles on its own territory twice in a single day, according to a local report.

The missiles fell in the Krasnodar area, located in the North Caucasus region in southern Russia, on January 13, the Russian ASTRA Telegram news channel reported. There have been numerous incidents reported in recent weeks that involved Russia's military accidentally dropping munitions and missiles on its own civilians.

The first Russian Kalibr missile fell in the region between the villages of Pavlovskaya and Atamanskaya in the morning, and the second came down in a field during the evening, causing no casualties or damage, ASTRA reported, citing sources in the region's emergency services, Russian military analyst Ian Matveev, and analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team.

Newsweek couldn't independently verify the report and has contacted Russia's defense ministry for comment by email.

It marks at least the fifth time that Russia's military may have mistakenly bombed its own territory since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the Moscow Times reported.

On January 2, a Russian missile fell on the village of Petropavlovka in the Voronezh region, injuring four people.

In a rare admission, the defense ministry said one of its own warplanes accidentally targeted the village of Petropavlovka, damaging at least six privately owned buildings. Videos circulating on social media showed a huge crater in the ground, caused by an explosion, and scattered debris.

"At around 9 a.m. on January 2, while an air force plane was flying over the village of Petropavlovka in the Voronezh region, there was an emergency release of aviation munitions," the defense ministry said in a statement.

Similar incidents occurred on April 20, May 24 and 25, 2023, the publication noted.

Elsewhere, in the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, which is in Ukraine's Donbas region, but is controlled by Kremlin-installed legislatures, a Russian aircraft dropped a bomb on the town Rubezhnoye on January 8.

"As combat missions were executed by aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces over the city of Rubezhnoye, an emergency discharge of the FAB-250 aircraft munition occurred," the Moscow-backed head of the region, Leonid Pasechnik said in a post on his Telegram channel, adding that no casualties were reported.

Pasechnik said people living in nearby houses were evacuated and offered the opportunity to stay at a temporary accommodation center.

 

‘FrankenSAM’ Systems Are Now Shooting Down Drones In Ukraine

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Systems blending Western and Soviet parts, including repurposed air-to-air missiles, offer Ukraine added air defenses it desperately needs.

At least one type of ad hoc air defense system developed as part of a Pentagon initiative dubbed FrankenSAM is now in service, according to Ukrainian officials. One of these systems scored a kill against an Iranian-designed, Russian-built kamikaze drone in Ukraine just last night.

Col. Yuri Ignat, the Ukrainian Air Force's top spokesperson, told The War Zone that FrankenSAM systems are now in use and that one knocked down at least one Russian Shahed-type kamikaze drone overnight. A separate statement from Ukraine's Air Force today claimed that 19 Shaheds were intercepted overnight, but did not specify what air defense systems were used to bring them down.

Earlier today, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries, mentioned the employment of a FrankenSAM system to shoot down a Shahed drone last night. He added that this intercept occurred at a range of some five and a half miles (nine kilometers). Kamyshin made his comments while speaking at the annual meeting of The World Economic Forum, commonly referred to simply as Davos after the resort town in Switzerland where it is held. Back in October 2023, Kamyshin said that the first FrankenSAM systems had arrived in Ukraine.

FrankenSAM is an umbrella term for a U.S.-led crash program to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities and capacity by blending new interceptors and other Western components with Soviet-era systems the country already has in service. The existence of this overarching effort came fully to light in October 2023.

The FrankenSAM project includes at least three different systems. The first of these is conversion of Soviet-designed Buk surface-to-air missile systems in Ukrainian service to fire U.S.-made radar-guided AIM-7 Sparrow/RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles. The second is another ad hoc system that uses repurposed U.S.-supplied heat-seeking AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles as its effector. The last is a blending of U.S.-designed Patriot surface-to-air missiles and their launchers with elements from existing Ukrainian air defense systems, which might include radars from the country's S-300P systems.

Neither Ignat nor Kamyshin has specified which of these systems are now in use. Kamyshin's disclosure of an intercept at a range of five and a half miles/nine kilometers provides some hints. This would be well within the engagement envelope for the Buk/Sparrow combination, which you can read more about here. The maximum range of the purpose-built surface-launched RIM-7 is classified, but it is understood to be around a dozen miles under real-world conditions, and possibly longer under certain circumstances.

The AIM-9M-based system could be another possibility, but an intercept five and half miles/nine kilometers away would likely be at the extreme end of its range capabilities. This is roughly the reported maximum range of the most capable variants of the purpose-built MIM-72 surface-to-air missile derivative of the Sidewinder.

Last October, a Financial Times story also quoted an unnamed Ukrainian official as saying the Sidewinder-based FrankenSAM systems would help "get us through the winter."

"Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation," that official added, according to the Financial Times. "We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defense."

Details about exactly what this system consists of remain limited. One possibility is that it could involve the launching of AIM-9Ms from modified Soviet-era Osa wheeled surface-to-air missile systems, also known in the West as SA-8 Geckos. Polish defense contractor PGZ previously pitched a broadly similar Osa conversion with the European IRIS-T missile as its effector. Ukraine has separately received complete IRIS-T surface-to-air missile systems from Germany.

There are, of course, other potential means for employing AIM-9Ms in a ground-based mode. In the past, U.S. defense contractor Boeing has pitched a variant of the turret used in the U.S. Avenger short-range air defense system capable of firing AIM-9X Sidewinders and millimeter wave radar-guided AIM-114L Longbow Hellfire missiles.

The Boeing turret, or a similar design, could be integrated onto various platforms already in Ukrainian service, including the Avenger. Ukraine has received standard Humvee-based Avengers from the United States, which are armed with Stinger short-range heat-seeking missiles and a .50 caliber M3P machine gun.

Reusing elements of MIM-72-armed Chaparral surface-to-air missile systems remain an option, as well. Chaparral components could potentially come from retired U.S. Army examples in storage or from one of the small set of remaining users of this system elsewhere around the world. The primary version of the Chaparral consists of a turreted launcher, which can be loaded with up to four MIM-72s at a time, mounted on a tracked carrier vehicle derived from the M113 armored personnel carrier. Trailer-mounted and navalized versions also exist. Multiple countries have supplied variants of the M113 to Ukraine already.

There is also the Patriot-based FrankenSAM system could have brought down the Shahed. Ukraine's Patriot systems are known to be in very high demand for use against Russian ballistic missiles and crewed aircraft at extended ranges. However, they have been used against lower-tier threats, including drones and cruise missiles.

There is, of course, the possibility, that multiple FrankenSAM systems are now being employed in Ukraine. Regardless, the program is reminder of the Ukrainian armed forces' continued demand for improved air defense capabilities and more of them.

Concerns about dwindling Ukrainian stocks of missiles for Soviet-era air defense systems remain. From the beginning, one of the biggest benefits of the FrankenSAM initiative is the opening up of vast new avenues for acquiring additional surface-to-air missiles. The War Zone has highlighted in past how valuable new supply chains like this are for Ukraine in the context of deliveries of National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) together with tranches of the very popular AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

AIM-9Ms are seeing increasingly limited use within the U.S. military and large numbers of these missiles have been exported, providing ample sources that Ukraine can leverage in the future. The same goes for AIM-7/RIM-7 missiles, which have been steadily being phased out of many armed forces worldwide in the past few decades.

Ukraine's air and missile defense needs have become more pronounced in recent months with Russia's resumption of large-scale missile and drone barrages. The strikes now include the use of North Korean short-range ballistic missiles and the Russian government is still pushing to acquire similar weapons from Iran. The War Zone has explored in detail how a large influx of additional ballistic missiles into Russia's arsenal could present serious challenges for Ukraine.

Though intercepting ballistic missiles is beyond the capabilities of most of the FrankenSAM systems, they can still provide valuable additional capacity against lower-end threats. Russian forces often layer drones and different types of ballistic and cruise missiles together during large-scale strikes to create complications for Ukrainian defenders.

The War Zone has been closely following indications in recent months that Ukrainian forces are adopting new tactics to better maximize their air defense capabilities, specially with regard to longer-range types like Patriot. This already appears to be paying dividends, including with Ukraine's recent claimed shootdown of one of Russia's very small number of highly valuable A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft. There is the possibility that a Patriot-based FrankenSAM system may have been responsible for that engagement.

There is also a steady need for additional air defense coverage along areas of the front lines in the eastern and southern end of Ukraine. Russian tactical combat jets and lower-end loitering munitions, as well as small improvised armed drones, are major threats to Ukrainian forces on a day-to-day basis.

The addition of new FrankenSAM system to the mix can only help Ukrainian air defenders further expand their overall ability to defend more of the country against a wide array of aerial threats.

 

War update: Ukrainian forces repel 91 enemy attacks in past 24 hours

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16.01.2024 09:22

Ukraine's defense forces repelled 91 enemy attacks in seven sectors of the front in the past 24 hours, most of them on the Avdiivka axis.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said this in its morning update published on Facebook, Ukrinform reports.

Ninety-four combat engagements were recorded over the last day. In total, the enemy launched a missile strike, 68 airstrikes and 78 attacks using multiple rocket launchers on the positions of Ukrainian troops and Ukrainian cities and villages.

Airstrikes were recorded in Vesele and Berestove, Kharkiv region, Novoliubivka and Serebrianske Forestry, Luhansk region, Terny, Yampolivka, Bohdanivka, Avdiivka, Oleksandropil, Novomykhailivka and Vodiane, Donetsk region, Novodariivka, Zaporizhzhia region, and Zmiivka, Novoberyslav and Beryslav, Kherson region.

More than 110 towns and villages in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions came under artillery fire.

The situation in the area of responsibility of the North operational and strategic grouping of troops in the Volyn and Polissia sectors remains largely unchanged.

In the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna sectors, the enemy maintains its military presence in the border areas, conducting subversive activities to prevent the deployment of Ukrainian troops to dangerous areas and increasing the density of minefields along the state border in the Belgorod region.

In the area of responsibility of the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops on the Kupiansk axis, Ukrainian defenders repelled two enemy attacks near Synkivka, Kharkiv region.

In the Lyman sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 enemy attacks near Terny, Yampolivka and Torske, Donetsk region, and 19 attacks near Serebrianske Forestry and Bilohorivka, Luhansk region, and Hryhorivka, Verkhniokamianske and Vesele, Donetsk region.

In the Bakhmut sector, Ukrainian soldiers repelled seven enemy attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka, Donetsk region.

In the area of responsibility of the Tavria operational and strategic group of troops in the Avdiivka sector, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back enemy attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian soldiers hold their ground, inflicting significant losses on the occupiers. In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 18 enemy attacks outside Novobakhmutivka, Stepove and Avdiyivka, and 16 attacks near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske, Donetsk region.

On the Marinka axis, Ukrainian defenders continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk region, where 12 attacks were repelled.

The enemy did not conduct offensive operations in the Shakhtarske sector.

In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Ukraine's defense forces repelled three enemy attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.

In the area of responsibility of the Odesa operational and strategic group of troops in the Kherson sector, the defense forces continue to take measures to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy still attempts to drive Ukrainian units out of their positions. In the past day, the enemy carried out an unsuccessful assault operation against Ukrainian troops.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.

On January 15, Ukrainian aircraft struck 22 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment and an anti-aircraft missile system.

Ukrainian rocket forces hit three enemy troops concentration areas, eight artillery pieces, an air defense system and two enemy radars.

 

Russia Loses 1,100 Soldiers, 24 Tanks, 36 AFVs, Two Planes in One Day: Kyiv

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Jan 16, 2024 at 7:42 AM EST

Russia lost 24 tanks, 1,100 troops, and 36 armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), and two planes in a single day, Kyiv's military said in an update on Tuesday.

As part of its daily update on the war, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces posts figures on Russia's troop and equipment losses. Moscow lost 1,110 soldiers over the past 24 hours, according to the military's latest casualty toll of Russian troops—bringing the total to 370,270.

Russia has also lost a total of 6,113 tanks, 8,801 artillery systems, 11,358 AFVs, and 331 aircraft in the ongoing war, the update said.

Newsweek couldn't independently verify Kyiv's figures and has contacted Russia's Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Estimates of casualty numbers vary, with Ukraine's figures usually exceeding those of its Western allies.

Moscow rarely shares information on the number of casualties it has sustained in the war. In September 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 5,937 troops had been killed since the war began. The defense ministry has since reported casualty numbers a further three times, confirming the loss of another 162 troops, the BBC's Russian Service reported.

On January 12, a joint investigation by the BBC's Russian Service and independent Russian news outlet Mediazona identified the names of 41,731 Russian military personnel who have died in the war in Ukraine since February 2022. It said that the actual number of losses was higher than the figures stated in the investigation.

It said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's convict army is making up a significant proportion of Moscow's losses in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Volunteers, prisoners and "recruits" of private military companies now account for 37 percent of all confirmed Russian casualties, while a further 12 percent of identified fatalities were enlisted under Putin's September 2022 "partial mobilization" order.

The BBC's Russian service said it has so far identified the names of 7,717 prisoners of Russian colonies who enlisted in the war and died in Ukraine. The bodies of some of those casualties remained on battlefields for several months, the investigation found.

Kyiv similarly does not provide information on its war casualties. A U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment leaked in April 2023 said that Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, including 15,500 to 17,500 dead.

Shoigu said in December that Ukraine has lost more than 383,000 troops since the war began. Newsweek could not independently verify the figures.

The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update on Tuesday that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have made significant advances over the last week, but that Moscow's push to seize the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka remains its "key line of effort."

"To date Russia has made very limited territorial gains at a significant cost in both materiel and personnel," the ministry's analysis said.

 

Tarnavskyi: Russians continue infantry attacks with support of aviation, armored vehicles

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17.01.2024 14:02

Russian invaders continue infantry attacks with the support of armored vehicles and aviation.

Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group of Forces, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said this on Telegram, Ukrinform reported.

According to him, in the operational area of the Tavria Joint Forces Operation Center, the enemy conducted 23 airstrikes, 53 combat engagements, and 702 artillery attacks yesterday.

Total Russian losses amounted to 368 people and 29 pieces of military equipment, including five tanks, five armored personnel carriers, four artillery systems, eight UAVs, five vehicles, and two items of special equipment.

As reported, over the past day in the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and another 15 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske in the Donetsk region.

 

Ukraine says it hit targets in St Petersburg with domestic-made drone

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January 18, 20241:00 PM EST

Ukraine hit targets in Russia's St Petersburg overnight using a domestic-produced drone that flew 1,250 km (775 miles), a Ukrainian government minister was quoted as saying by Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday.
A Ukrainian military source told Reuters earlier that an oil terminal in Russia's second city, located some 850 km (530 miles) from the nearest section of the Ukrainian border, was targeted as part of a "new stage of work in this region".

"...Last night we hit the target, and this thing flew exactly 1,250 kilometres last night," Oleksandr Kamyshin, the minister of strategic industries who oversees weapons production, was quoted as saying in Davos.
Reuters could not independently verify the statements. A Russian-appointed official in occupied southeastern Ukraine said earlier that Ukraine had tried and failed to target a Russian Baltic Sea oil terminal with a drone overnight.

Nearly two years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the attack shows how Kyiv is trying to strike back, including at targets deep inside Russia.
Kyiv has been trying to develop and produce attack drones with a longer range, to narrow the gap in strike capabilities with Russia, which regularly conducts long-range aerial bombardments of Ukraine with missiles and drones.

Kyiv has used drones and missiles to strike targets on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia seized and annexed in 2014.

 

Russian Black Sea Fleet's Woes Worsen as Ship 'Sunk' by Ukraine Drones

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Ukrainian drones sank a Russian Tarantul-class corvette near Sevastopol in annexed Crimea late last month, a Ukrainian partisan group said on Thursday.

Ukrainian partisan group "Atesh," which is based in Crimea, said in a post on Telegram that its members discovered a sunken Tarantul-class corvette in Hrafska Bay, Sevastopol, which likely was "shot down during an attack by sea drones" several weeks ago.

The group provided coordinates that confirms that the corvette "sank" between December 28 and 31, 2023, the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank, said in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Thursday.

Newsweek couldn't independently verify the partisan group's claims, and has contacted Russia's Defense Ministry for comment by email.

It marks the latest blow for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose Black Sea Fleet has been targeted by Ukraine in the war as it seeks to reverse his 2014 annexation of Crimea. The region is Russia's central logistics hub for its forces in southern Ukraine.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has suffered extensive casualties throughout the war. Its flagship, Moskva, was attacked in April 2022. In September 2023, Ukraine launched a missile attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, reportedly killing a number of leading officers and taking out a Russian submarine.

The U.K. defense secretary, Grant Shapps, said on December 26, shortly after an attack on the port of Feodosia, that Russia had lost 20 percent of its Black Sea Fleet in the previous four months.

"The Russians lost another important weapon in the Black Sea. For which we congratulate everyone," Atesh said. "We will gradually expel the occupying army from Ukrainian territories and restore justice."

The ISW noted that Russian officials and authorities installed by the Kremlin in Crimea had claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian air and naval drone strikes against Sevastopol on December 28 and 30, 2023.

"This confirmation of a previously unaccounted-for successful Ukrainian strike indicates that Ukraine's recent strike campaign against occupied Crimea may have been more successful than has been confirmed thus far by open sources," the think tank said.

"This confirmation of a previously unaccounted-for successful Ukrainian strike indicates that Ukraine's recent strike campaign against occupied Crimea may have been more successful than has been confirmed thus far by open sources," the think tank said.

 

Russia's elite paratroopers and marines are refusing orders to launch 'human wave attacks,' Ukraine official says

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Jan 20, 2024, 6:17 AM EST

Russian marines and paratroopers are refusing to launch certain types of assaults due to concerns over the huge losses other troops are suffering, a Ukrainian official said, the Kyiv Post reported.

Nataliya Humenyuk, a press secretary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine's Joint Command South, said that the soldiers considered "themselves 'elite troops'" and did not "want to go into frontal assaults" that former felons and reservists typically carry out, the outlet reported.

Throughout the Russian invasion, Russia has become increasingly reliant on high-risk frontal assaults involving waves of attacks that probe Ukrainian positions and seize small portions of territory at the cost of substantial casualties.

The leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash last August after leading a failed mutiny in June, described the tactic as a "meat grinder."

Humenyuk cited Russian attacks on Krynky in the Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine, saying that Russian troops assaulting Ukrainian marine positions there were being hit with losses of more than 50%.

"At present in our sector the number of units of the type 'Shtorm-Z' [low-grade Russian units made of up older reservists and former felons, often committed to carry out human wave attacks] is falling and we are seeing more naval infantry and paratroopers," Humenyuk said.

"But they consider themselves 'elite troops,' and they don't want to go into frontal assaults like that," she added.

One of Russia's newly formed paratrooper units, the 104th Guards Airborne Division, appeared to be hit particularly hard in its combat debut in the Kherson region late last year, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an update on the conflict in December.

It said the unit "highly likely suffered exceptionally heavy losses and failed to achieve its objectives during its combat debut in Kherson Oblast," aimed at dislodging Ukrainian positions near Krynky.

Krynky has been the scene of heavy fighting over the past few months as Ukrainian forces have attempted to recapture ground across the Dnipro River.

Conditions in the region have made fighting difficult for both sides, with marshes, water-filled bomb craters, and mud making it almost impossible for troops to dig in, The New York Times reported.

Despite Ukrainian officials' claims that the country's marines had gained ground on the eastern side of the river, soldiers and marines told The Times that this was an exaggeration.

"There are no positions. There is no such thing as an observation post or position," Oleksiy, a soldier who fought in Krynky and only gave his first name, said. "It is impossible to gain a foothold there. It's impossible to move equipment there."

"It's not even a fight for survival," he added. "It's a suicide mission."

But its success in the skies above the Dnipro bolstered Ukraine's difficult position on the ground.

Russia appears to be struggling to defend against Ukraine's drone attacks because of a shortage of electronic-warfare capability in the area, the UK's Ministry of Defence said.

Ukraine's forces have been using first-person-view drones to strike Russian vehicles, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update.

The ministry said that a Russian military blogger estimated that 90% of Russian military equipment deployed around Krynky has been destroyed.

However....

Quote

Russia’s relentless ‘meat assaults’ are wearing down outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces

Near Avdiivka, Ukraine
CNN
 — 
Straddling the frontlines, the small town of Avdiivka has become the epicenter of the war in Ukraine. Still in Ukrainian hands – just – it’s enclosed on three sides by Russian troops and cannons.

Pounded by the Russians, the town itself is unrecognizable.

Concrete carcasses mark what were once the town’s tallest buildings, seemingly floating amid small hills of rubble. The cross atop the town’s church, bent double by an explosion, points accusatorially at the Russian lines.

Amid the ruins, Russian and Ukrainian troops clash, preyed upon by drones and the occasional tank. Casualties are heavy on both sides but especially among the Russian attackers, who have thrown wave after human wave against the entrenched defenders.

"Meat assaults” is how one Ukrainian sniper, "Bess,” described these attacks to CNN. His callsign means demon in Ukrainian and the scene he recounts is hellish. The dead soldiers, "just lie there frozen,” the Omega Special Forces Group officer said from a house several miles behind the frontline in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

"Nobody evacuates them, nobody takes them away,” he said. "It feels like people don’t have a specific task, they just go and die.”

"Teren,” the commander of a Ukrainian drone reconnaissance unit in the town, said that even "if we can kill 40 to 70 servicemen with drones in a day, the next day they renew their forces and continue to attack.”

In 18 months of fighting around the town, he said, his pilots from the 110th Mechanized Brigade have killed at least 1,500 Russians. Still, they keep coming.

Ukrainian casualties are a closely guarded secret, but the battle has turned into an attritional slog, matching seemingly chaotic Russian attacks against the limited, but determined, resources and manpower of the Ukrainians.

In a surprise trip to Avdiivka in late December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the battle for the town as an "onslaught,” adding that the battle could in many ways "determine the overall course of the war.”

Ukraine’s leaders appear conscious of the criticisms around the defense - but subsequent fall - of Bakhmut in 2023, acknowledging the obvious tensions between holding on to locations without huge strategic significance and protecting the lives of soldiers.

"Every piece of our land is precious to us,” army chief Valery Zaluzhny said, but in Avdiivka, "there is no need to do anything remotely reminiscent of a show.”

Arms for the fight
But those lives depend on weapons and arms.

On an ice-bitten January morning, the mercury idling at -22 degrees Celsius (-7.6 Fahrenheit), CNN watched another team of Omega special forces troops race to their firing position around Avdiivka.

Rushing to set up their Soviet-era rocket launcher – bolted on to the back of an American pick-up - one of the men flicked the switch to launch a salvo.

Clicks – and curses – followed. Frozen solid, the rockets wouldn’t fire.

Reliant on the kit they have, not the Western hardware they crave, they know that each lost chance to fire back at Russians may cost Ukrainian lives.

A few days later, a supply truck chewed through the mud of a field around the nearby town of Marinka, bringing much-needed shells to a gun position.

But the cannon – a US-supplied M777 howitzer – is silent for much of the day, rationed to around 20 shells a day, 30 on a "good day” the gunners said. Last summer, supporting Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive, the gun crew would fire at least twice as many foreign rounds, many American-made, at the Russians, they said. 

And in an artillery position 90 minutes north of Avdiivka, around the town of Bakhmut, that CNN visited, the ammunition compartment of a US-supplied Paladin howitzer sat cavernously empty. The crew had no shells to fire at all.

A delivery later in the day brought four shells but nothing that would do the Russians much harm: they were only smoke shells.

"Every shell that is suitable for the Paladin we use,” the gun commander "Skyba” told CNN, "It’s better than no shells.”

"10 to 1” is the difference between Russian and Ukrainian artillery supplies, the artillery commander in Ukraine’s 93rd mechanized Brigade told CNN.

"They use old Soviet systems,” Korsar said, "but Soviet systems can still kill.”

However, US support to Ukraine – including much-needed shells - no longer seems assured. Future aid packages are still mired in Capitol Hill squabbling, and the specter of a possible Ukraine-aid-averse Trump presidency on the horizon adds further uncertainty.

US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby put it plainly this month: "The assistance that we provided has now ground to a halt. The attacks that the Russians are conducting are only increasing.”

But when they can put their Western weapons to use, the Ukrainians have much more to celebrate in Avdiivka.

The tip of the spear during last year’s ill-fated Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle - gifted to Ukraine by the US and designed to support infantry - is reinforcing its reputation blunting waves of Russian attacks.

Without the Bradley, "I doubt that we would be here talking with you,” crew commander "Barbie” told CNN from behind the Avdiivka frontline.

"The vehicle is a tough one,” he said. "It’s not afraid of anything.”

In video provided to CNN by another Bradley unit in the 47th mechanized brigade, a US-trained crew take on a Russian T-90 tank – one of the most powerful in Moscow’s army. Their fire disables the tank, its turret spinning uncontrollably, before an exploding drone slams into its side.

But the US-made Bradleys are in limited supply along the front.

Some 200 Bradleys were promised by the US and dozens have been damaged and destroyed in battle. Some of these will likely have been repaired and sent back to the frontlines.

Ukrainian crews, although admirers of the Bradley’s power, have also criticized its ability to weather the harsh Ukrainian winter and the state of some of the older vehicles shipped by the US.

Ukraine’s lack of firepower compared to its adversary is a common theme on the front line. "Teren” the commander of a nearby drone reconnaissance unit, said outright that Ukraine doesn’t have enough arms and equipment to win against Russia.

The Ukrainians are forced to be better pilots and more inventive with their limited resources, he said.

"At the beginning of the war, their advantage in drones was 10 times greater than ours,” he said. "At the moment, I think we are a worthy opponent in the drone format. We cover the sky around the clock.”

Observing their hunt for Russian troops from the unit’s command post, CNN saw multiple drones from his unit circling one Russian foxhole.

The powerful cameras on one drone caught two Russian soldiers desperately take aim at a weaving suicide drone, the smoke from their rifles and cigarettes billowing into the cold air. The Ukrainian drone dives into the narrow dugout behind them and explodes.

CNN does not know the fate of the men, but drone pilots in the area told CNN that they were unlikely to have survived given the number of drone units operating in the area.

An overflowing cup
Still, the Russian assaults continue, meaning holding Avdiivka is now a matter of numbers, said "Bess,” the special forces sniper.

"If there is a liter bottle, there’s no way you can fit a liter and a half in it,” he said.

To balance Russia’s superior numbers, Ukraine’s leadership – under pressure from the country’s top generals - is weighing a possible half a million extra troops to bolster the military’s ranks.

Life in Ukrainian cities away from the front appears relatively untouched by the fighting, at least on the surface. Although recruitment posters and military checkpoints dot highways and men in uniform are a regular sight, there’s little overt sign of wartime restrictions or changes to daily life. Supermarkets are full and cafes brim with customers.

But conscription is a touchy subject.

The Ukrainian president does have the power to enforce further mobilization – currently limited to those aged over 27 – but has chosen to seek parliamentary approval for it. The bill is slowly – and not without difficulty - making its way through lawmakers’ scrutiny.

Zelensky has also questioned how to pay for the mobilization, with six taxpayers required to pay for the salary of each soldier in uniform, he said.

His reticence is a sign of the political sensitivities around public opinion in Ukraine, even as the country’s enemies make no secret of their violent ambitions for Kyiv.

"The existence of Ukraine is deadly for Ukrainians,” Russia’s former President Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and one of the most hawkish Russian politicians, posted on Telegram on January 17.

"Why? The existence of an independent state on the historical Russian territories will now be a constant pretext for the resumption of combat actions,” he continued.

Back on the front line, morale among the troops with whom CNN spoke was high.

The soldiers, tired though rarely disgruntled, acknowledged that reinforcements would provide a welcome increase in their rotations off the front line.

For now, though, that remains a distant hope, as in Avdiivka the fight rages on.

"We are doing everything possible and impossible to hold this line,” Omega Special Forces officer "Sayer” told CNN.

"I don’t know what will happen next,” he said. "But Avdiivka is holding on. We are on our land. We have nothing to lose.”

 

Ukraine War Map Shows Russia's 'Confirmed Gains' on Three Fronts

Quote

Russian forces are edging forward at three key points along Ukraine's frozen front line, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, as Kyiv warns that staggering losses alone will not stop Moscow's war machine.

ISW's Thursday update noted confirmed Russian advances in the frontline hotspots near the devastated city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region, the besieged Ukrainian fortress city of Avdiivka, also in Donetsk, and in the the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, which this summer was at the heart of Kyiv's own offensive efforts.

"Positional engagements" are continuing along the 600-mile front, ISW wrote, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces probing each other's positions seeking local advantage.

Newsweek is unable to independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Ukraine has transitioned from counteroffensive operations into a more defensive posture with the onset of winter. Russian forces, meanwhile, have launched fresh efforts to capture ground and reverse the meager gains won by Kyiv's troops through a costly summer and fall of fighting.

Moscow's troops have advanced northwest of Bakhmut, with the ISW citing geolocated footage published on January 17 suggesting "a marginal gain in the residential area in northern Bohdanivka," just outside the destroyed city that was captured by Russian units in May 2023 after months of devastating combat.

Ukrainian Ground Forces spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo reported this week that Russian forces are intensifying efforts around Bakhmut, as well as in the direction of Kupyiansk in Kharkiv Oblast.

Elsewhere, Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka, the fortified city that has long been a fulcrum for the Ukrainian military on the Donetsk front.

The settlement sits just outside Donetsk, which since 2014 has been occupied by local separatists and their Russian patrons. The city is considered the unofficial capital of the Donbas region, making it a key political and logistical goal.

"Geolocated footage published on January 17 shows Russian forces assaulting and capturing a position east of Nevelske," ISW wrote, referring to a small settlement to the southwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces have been trying to encircle the town for months.

Fighting continues all around Avdiivka, ISW said, including at the coke plant to its northwest, the industrial zone to its southeast, near Sieverne to its west, and near Pervomaiske and Nevelske to its southwest.

To the south, Russian units are pushing forwards into the territory briefly liberated by Ukrainian troops over the summer along the administrative border between the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

"Geolocated footage published on January 18 shows that Russian forces previously marginally advanced southeast of Rivnopil," ISW wrote.

Ukraine took back the destroyed village in June as its forces drove southwards from the Velyka Novosilka area, hoping to push into the Russian-occupied "land bridge" connecting Crimea to Western Russia. The ultimate target for the push from Velyka Novosilka was believed to be the port city of Berdiansk.

 

 

Russians trying to retain control over the Dnipro-Buh estuary – Ukraine Army spox

Quote

20.01.2024 12:36

The Russian invasion forces have been intensely using FPV drones and UAVs of other modifications armed with fragmentation munitions on the Ochakiv axis.

This was reported by the head of the joint press center of Operational Command South, Natalia Humeniuk, who spoke on the air of the national telethon, reports Ukrinform.

Informing the public on the latest battlefield developments, she said: "Not only the enemy's aviation was quieter in the past day, but also their artillery, because indeed, weather complicated their work and their aerial reconnaissance could not spot their strikes as precisely as needed."

"But we remember that the enemy is capable of ‘carpet’ shelling, that is, without much targeting, affecting the entire residential blocks, firing off from the opposite bank of the Dnipro. This is the situation we have in our zone of responsibility," Humenyuk said.

According to the spokesperson, "nevertheless, the enemy gradually tried to intensify artillery fire, but it was a little quieter in Kherson region that night, because the enemy somewhat switched to a different direction."

"Ochakiv was shelled last night. Let me remind you, the Ochakiv axis is critical for the enemy because there they are trying to retain control over the Dnipro – Buh estuary, so as not to allow us to resume commercial navigation from Mykolaiv ports. This is a fundamental position that they have long maintained, shelling the water area of the Dnipro-Buh estuary. But from time to time, residential areas also get hit. And, in particular, the use of FPV drones and UAVs of other modifications dropping of fragmentation munitions has intensified in that area," Humeniuk said.

"In the past day, they dropped fragmentation munitions on a civilian car. That is why residents of littoral areas are very careful in using motor vehicles in settlements close to the water area. This is a very dangerous endeavor," the head of the joint press center emphasized.

As reported, Ukraine’s Navy said two Russian warships were on combat duty in the Black Sea as of Saturday morning, including a missile carrier with eight Kalibrs on board.

 

Can someone please post an update on how the fighting is going?  Thanks.

6 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Can someone please post an update on how the fighting is going?  Thanks.

all you need to know is that it's going according to putin's plan. 

Just now, Alpha_TATEr said:

all you need to know is that it's going according to putin's plan. 

Ok

39 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Can someone please post an update on how the fighting is going?  Thanks.

No

7 minutes ago, paco said:

No

Very well