14 hours ago, nipples said:

So 149 at bats wasn't enough to show that he can hit major league pitching, but 43 postseason at bats is enough to show that he can't? Ok, makes sense...

Against real pitching, yes. 

His BABIP in the Regular Season was .410, which means that he was extremely lucky.

In the playoffs, it was .143, which means that he was extremely unlucky....  So he's probably somewhere in the middle -   a .250-.260 hitter with little power and plus speed.   

Throughout the minors, he has a K% of less than 20%.   It bumped up to 25% in the regular season and then ballooned to 33% in the playoffs. 

From looking at his percentages based on pitch type, it's pretty clear that he has trouble catching up to high velocity fastballs.

He's going to have to develop into a slap hitter who hits balls where there are no fielders or legs out bunt/infield hits.   His defense is elite, but I doubt his hit tool will ever be better than replacement-level.

Honestly, I think we should sell high and include him in a trade package for another outfielder (Trout?) and have a Marsh/Pache platoon in CF until Crawford is MLB ready. 

31 minutes ago, iladelphxx said:

His BABIP in the Regular Season was .410, which means that he was extremely lucky.

In the playoffs, it was .143, which means that he was extremely unlucky....  So he's probably somewhere in the middle -   a .250-.260 hitter with little power and plus speed.   

Throughout the minors, he has a K% of less than 20%.   It bumped up to 25% in the regular season and then ballooned to 33% in the playoffs. 

From looking at his percentages based on pitch type, it's pretty clear that he has trouble catching up to high velocity fastballs.

He's going to have to develop into a slap hitter who hits balls where there are no fielders or legs out bunt/infield hits.   His defense is elite, but I doubt his hit tool will ever be better than replacement-level.

Honestly, I think we should sell high and include him in a trade package for another outfielder (Trout?) and have a Marsh/Pache platoon in CF until Crawford is MLB ready. 

Definite no to Trout - he's toast at this point as far as health goes.  

1 hour ago, iladelphxx said:

His BABIP in the Regular Season was .410, which means that he was extremely lucky.

In the playoffs, it was .143, which means that he was extremely unlucky....  So he's probably somewhere in the middle -   a .250-.260 hitter with little power and plus speed.   

Throughout the minors, he has a K% of less than 20%.   It bumped up to 25% in the regular season and then ballooned to 33% in the playoffs. 

From looking at his percentages based on pitch type, it's pretty clear that he has trouble catching up to high velocity fastballs.

He's going to have to develop into a slap hitter who hits balls where there are no fielders or legs out bunt/infield hits.   His defense is elite, but I doubt his hit tool will ever be better than replacement-level.

Honestly, I think we should sell high and include him in a trade package for another outfielder (Trout?) and have a Marsh/Pache platoon in CF until Crawford is MLB ready. 

Im guessing I’d they sell high on Rojas it’s likely as a package for soto if they go for a bat. Soto makes the most sense as they’ve been linked to him since the beginning of last year and even the deadline this year. 

 

 

Gonna make this worse is scherzer and Garcia out for the rest of the World Series 

4 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

Anyone have a subscription?

3 minutes ago, iladelphxx said:

Anyone have a subscription?

I used too but canceled it when everyone left. Apparently Ohtani he ties to the Phillies 

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I used too but canceled it when everyone left. Apparently Ohtani he ties to the Phillies 

Phillies will never get Ohtani, you can just forget that dream 

7 minutes ago, RoadToHell said:

Phillies will never get Ohtani, you can just forget that dream 

Honestly they have no where to put him. I think he goes dodgers or mariners. Although wouldn’t be entirely shocked if the Yankees finally said screw it give him a blank check 

frankly the way i see if the offseason 

re-sign nola or trade for burnes (way too many Phillies reporters putting this out there so i have a feeling they know something) 

rhys signs a 1 year deal with a player option for a 2nd 

sign a RH and LH bat

sign a bullpen arm to replace kimbrel in the pen 

 

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Honestly they have no where to put him. I think he goes dodgers or mariners. Although wouldn’t be entirely shocked if the Yankees finally said screw it give him a blank check 

frankly the way i see if the offseason 

re-sign nola or trade for burnes (way too many Phillies reporters putting this out there so i have a feeling they know something) 

rhys signs a 1 year deal with a player option for a 2nd 

sign a RH and LH bat

sign a bullpen arm to replace kimbrel in the pen 

 

If he goes to the Yankees I’ll be pissed simply because of the "blank check” reasoning. That’s the easy way out for him IMO but I hope he goes to a team beyond the "we will pay you a billion dollars to play in pinstripes” I’ll hate the Yankees even more than I already do. Kimbrel should never pitch for the Phillies again and I think they keep Nola and let Rhys go because Harper will stay at 1st. I want Rhys back but I don’t see him if Harper will stay at 1st 

So are we no longer doing the new thread thing? 

If so, I'll close mine. 

crap, I remember back in like 2007-2011 we had a PBP thread and a season thread 

So soto might be traded sooner rather than later 

 

 

Seen a ton of people on Twitter clamoring for trout. No thanks on trout. He’s gonna be 33 and last 3 years he’s been injury prone. He’s played 36, 119 and 82 games. If this was like 3-4 years ago I’d do it. But he has 7 years left on his deal and while still great when he plays has issues staying healthy and he’s gonna need to move out of cf. It’s unlikely to just start staying healthier as he gets older and deeper into that contract when he hasn’t in the prime of his career. Not that his costovertebral dysfunction is a crippling type injury but he hasn’t stayed healthy recently before that diagnosis so it’s still not something you want along with the fact recently been injured in 3 consecutive seasons 

I’m guessing an option for the Phillies is soto. If harper moves back to OF and they retain rhys on a 1-year contract (rumored what boras is gonna try to do to build his value back up for FA next year) then could theoretically move castellanos this offseason. When soto becomes a FA next offseason you sign him and move harper back to 1st at that time. Soto makes more sense as there’s been a ton of smoke around him and the Phillies. Plus he’d be 26 when he signs

The thing is with Trout -none of his injuries are related - it's not like he keeps having to deal with the same nagging injuries over and over again like Chase Utley.

 

You can also make the argument that missing all of those games has actually reduced the wear and tear on his body.

The real difference between his situation and Soto is that Trout has a full no trade clause and can force his way to the Phillies.   That reduces the Angels' leverage.   Soto can be traded to any team, and every contender will bid on him, driving up the price.   Plus, Soto is a Free Agent after 2024.   Trout is signed at $35M a year until 2030, his age 38 season.  Soto could become the first player to sign a $500M contract.

So do you want to empty the farm for a guy who many not sign, and if he does, it's going to to cost you a half billion dollars?

Honestly, I think you could get Trout for something like Castellanos/Rojas, Griff McGarry and some other 2nd tier prospects due to the lack of leverage and the dollars left on that contract.

For Soto, you're definitely giving up multiple prospects from the Painter, Abel, Crawford, Aidan Miller pool with no guarantee that he will sign an extension. 

 

On 11/1/2023 at 6:23 PM, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

So soto might be traded sooner rather than later 

 

What prospects and players are we giving up in this hypothetical trade?

1 hour ago, iladelphxx said:

The thing is with Trout -none of his injuries are related - it's not like he keeps having to deal with the same nagging injuries over and over again like Chase Utley.

 

You can also make the argument that missing all of those games has actually reduced the wear and tear on his body.

The real difference between his situation and Soto is that Trout has a full no trade clause and can force his way to the Phillies.   That reduces the Angels' leverage.   Soto can be traded to any team, and every contender will bid on him, driving up the price.   Plus, Soto is a Free Agent after 2024.   Trout is signed at $35M a year until 2030, his age 38 season.  Soto could become the first player to sign a $500M contract.

So do you want to empty the farm for a guy who many not sign, and if he does, it's going to to cost you a half billion dollars?

Honestly, I think you could get Trout for something like Castellanos/Rojas, Griff McGarry and some other 2nd tier prospects due to the lack of leverage and the dollars left on that contract.

For Soto, you're definitely giving up multiple prospects from the Painter, Abel, Crawford, Aidan Miller pool with no guarantee that he will sign an extension. 

 

lol the less wear and tear cause he got hurt is a bad argument lol. So he is getting hurt more frequently while not playing as much. That doesn’t make me feel better as It’s taking less wear and tear of play for him to keep getting hurt. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. He’s not gonna start getting healthier as he gets older with seven years left on that deal. So you want to pay Mike trout at ages 36-40 hoping he doesn’t keep getting hurt because he doesn’t have as much wear because he got hurt. That’s such bad logic. So if he gets hurt next year and then the following year, he should be good to go for age 35 cause less wear and tear from playing due to the injuries  the injuries take a toll on the body not just playing 

So let me get this straight a guy in his prime of his career keeps getting hurt (3 consecutive years), but we’re expecting at ages 33+ for that to just stop happening. Usually when you get older, your body starts breaking down more. He’s had problem since he hit 30 but magically it’s gonna stop at 33-40. And hoping there’s not a decline on top of that. So what we’re banking on he’s just gonna start staying healthy and no drop off in performance. Seems like a significant risk to take regardless of what they are giving up 

So reiterating… going on 33 years old, injury prone in the last three years in his prime,  found out he has a chronic back issue that might give him issues as he gets older and has seven more years on that contract so you’re paying him until he’s 40 because we are just gonna hope he starts staying healthy into his mid and late 30s and won’t eventually also begin to diminish as a player…. 

meanwhile, soto you don’t even have to trade for if you wait til free agency 2025 (next year). Maybe you get nor Maybe you don’t however, there’s been a ton of smoke that the Phillies are super interested in him, and he has reciprocated the same type of interest in them. My plan was move Harper back to the outfield, trade Castellanos to get off that contract and bringing Rhys Hoskins for one year. If you don’t get Soto next free agency, not all is lost. You would been out of the hoskins’ contract and Castellanos contract so have money to spend elsewhere. And if you happen to get him which they’d be a frontrunner all I did was spend John Middleton’s money, and I get him for about a decade in his prime because he’s 26 years old.

Mike trouts contract might be the worst thing about that trade. You still have seven years left on the contract. He’s already starting to not stay healthy at 32. And then there’s eventually because it happens to everybody going to be a drop off in production. So when that hits and he’s not staying healthy, you’re gonna be thrilled that you still have 4-5 years left on that contract that you’re paying Mike Trout to basically be a shell of himself and not stay healthy? Add on the ramifications with the luxury tax having that player making that much and risk associated with his health

also, the reasoning of well it’s not the same injury also has its down side. If it was the same type of injury, maybe a new doctor or new training staff try new things like the Golden State Warriors did with Stephen Curry and his ankle. And it works. The fact that he keeps having injuries to different part of his body might just signal to everybody his body is beginning to deteriorate and breakdown as he’s getting into his mid 30s.

if this was two or three years ago, I’m 100% for it. Even beginning of last year I’d consider it. Take 2020 out of this equation because only played 60 games. The last five seasons that they played 162 games, Mike Trout has been injured in 4 of 5 and missed significant time in 3 of the 5 (at least a quarter of the season). And has had injuries in 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Trout in theory sounds amazing but when you realize he’s getting injured more frequently, he’s gonna be 33, he has 7 years left on the deal, has a chronic back problem that may or may not give him issues as he gets older and eventually some decline is coming. That’s a pretty big risk to take on financially. 

10 minutes ago, Khani1 said:

What prospects and players are we giving up in this hypothetical trade?

Came out today it’s less likely padres trade him in the offseason. 

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/phillies-reportedly-linked-free-agent-ace-following-postseason-heroics

10 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/phillies-reportedly-linked-free-agent-ace-following-postseason-heroics

Made it sound at the end like it didn’t preclude them from signing nola too. Frankly i tend to think of you get montgomery it means nola is gone. That said Phillies had interest in him in the past. If i remember correctly they tried to deal for him in 2021 or 2022 

if they somehow brought back nola and got Montgomery that’s a filthy rotation. Wheeler, Montgomery, nola, Ranger and Sanchez/walker. I’m guessing it’d likely means walker is dealt somewhere for peanuts to a team that needs an innings eater. Or Sanchez is part of another deal to bring on BP or hitter 

59 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Made it sound at the end like it didn’t preclude them from signing nola too. Frankly i tend to think of you get montgomery it means nola is gone. That said Phillies had interest in him in the past. If i remember correctly they tried to deal for him in 2021 or 2022 

if they somehow brought back nola and got Montgomery that’s a filthy rotation. Wheeler, Montgomery, nola, Ranger and Sanchez/walker. I’m guessing it’d likely means walker is dealt somewhere for peanuts to a team that needs an innings eater. Or Sanchez is part of another deal to bring on BP or hitter 

If they went this route, then one of the prospects starters could be used to trade for Soto later on. 

20 minutes ago, Khani1 said:

If they went this route, then one of the prospects starters could be used to trade for Soto later on. 

Probably is Abel in that case. Painters value isn’t there until he at least comes back and starts throwing again. 

2 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

lol the less wear and tear cause he got hurt is a bad argument lol. So he is getting hurt more frequently while not playing as much. That doesn’t make me feel better as It’s taking less wear and tear of play for him to keep getting hurt. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. He’s not gonna start getting healthier as he gets older with seven years left on that deal. So you want to pay Mike trout at ages 36-40 hoping he doesn’t keep getting hurt because he doesn’t have as much wear because he got hurt. That’s such bad logic. So if he gets hurt next year and then the following year, he should be good to go for age 35 cause less wear and tear from playing due to the injuries  the injuries take a toll on the body not just playing 

So let me get this straight a guy in his prime of his career keeps getting hurt (3 consecutive years), but we’re expecting at ages 33+ for that to just stop happening. Usually when you get older, your body starts breaking down more. He’s had problem since he hit 30 but magically it’s gonna stop at 33-40. And hoping there’s not a decline on top of that. So what we’re banking on he’s just gonna start staying healthy and no drop off in performance. Seems like a significant risk to take regardless of what they are giving up 

So reiterating… going on 33 years old, injury prone in the last three years in his prime,  found out he has a chronic back issue that might give him issues as he gets older and has seven more years on that contract so you’re paying him until he’s 40 because we are just gonna hope he starts staying healthy into his mid and late 30s and won’t eventually also begin to diminish as a player…. 

meanwhile, soto you don’t even have to trade for if you wait til free agency 2025 (next year). Maybe you get nor Maybe you don’t however, there’s been a ton of smoke that the Phillies are super interested in him, and he has reciprocated the same type of interest in them. My plan was move Harper back to the outfield, trade Castellanos to get off that contract and bringing Rhys Hoskins for one year. If you don’t get Soto next free agency, not all is lost. You would been out of the hoskins’ contract and Castellanos contract so have money to spend elsewhere. And if you happen to get him which they’d be a frontrunner all I did was spend John Middleton’s money, and I get him for about a decade in his prime because he’s 26 years old.

Mike trouts contract might be the worst thing about that trade. You still have seven years left on the contract. He’s already starting to not stay healthy at 32. And then there’s eventually because it happens to everybody going to be a drop off in production. So when that hits and he’s not staying healthy, you’re gonna be thrilled that you still have 4-5 years left on that contract that you’re paying Mike Trout to basically be a shell of himself and not stay healthy? Add on the ramifications with the luxury tax having that player making that much and risk associated with his health

also, the reasoning of well it’s not the same injury also has its down side. If it was the same type of injury, maybe a new doctor or new training staff try new things like the Golden State Warriors did with Stephen Curry and his ankle. And it works. The fact that he keeps having injuries to different part of his body might just signal to everybody his body is beginning to deteriorate and breakdown as he’s getting into his mid 30s.

if this was two or three years ago, I’m 100% for it. Even beginning of last year I’d consider it. Take 2020 out of this equation because only played 60 games. The last five seasons that they played 162 games, Mike Trout has been injured in 4 of 5 and missed significant time in 3 of the 5 (at least a quarter of the season). And has had injuries in 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Trout in theory sounds amazing but when you realize he’s getting injured more frequently, he’s gonna be 33, he has 7 years left on the deal, has a chronic back problem that may or may not give him issues as he gets older and eventually some decline is coming. That’s a pretty big risk to take on financially. 

He doesn't have a chronic back injury....

"Once the season was over, I really didn’t feel any, I didn’t feel the back at all," Trout said. "The back’s been a non-issue for the past four months. I felt it a little bit when I came back during the season last year. And then I’ve been on top of it pretty well."

https://www.si.com/mlb/angels/news/angels-news-mike-trout-reveals-latest-update-on-his-back-injury-nc2000 

He missed time this year do to a broken hamate bone in his wrist.    The other injury was a calf strain 2 years ago.

It's not like he has arthritic knees that keep flaring up.

I think if you move him to LF and occasionally DH him, you'll be fine.   Then, when Schwarber's contract expires in 2 years, you move him to be a full time DH.