July 8, 20241 yr My point is that they are all talented. These aren’t nfl first and second round picks with concrete value and expectations. Baseball prospects are vague projection until they aren’t. There are a few generational type talents with undeniable traits that everyone can tell will roll from A ball to majors very quickly. Sorry, but that’s not Painter or Miller, no matter how much we want to think it is. Everyone else…takes time to play out. Maybe an all star, maybe an ace, maybe a platoon hitter or a spot starter. You’re not going to know until they have extended innings against AAA competition (or at least know enough to really define their value). For a franchise on the cusp of a title that also has a really bad recent history of getting its elite prospects to convey into high end MLB studs, I don’t see why any of these guys should be considered special or untouchable. And if Painter/Miller/Crawford are untouchable, then forget about adding any contributor at the deadline, because no one else in the system has value even close to order of magnitude of a proven MLB vet.
July 8, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, eagle45 said: My point is that they are all talented. These aren’t nfl first and second round picks with concrete value and expectations. Baseball prospects are vague projection until they aren’t. There are a few generational type talents with undeniable traits that everyone can tell will roll from A ball to majors very quickly. Sorry, but that’s not Painter or Miller, no matter how much we want to think it is. Everyone else…takes time to play out. Maybe an all star, maybe an ace, maybe a platoon hitter or a spot starter. You’re not going to know until they have extended innings against AAA competition (or at least know enough to really define their value). For a franchise on the cusp of a title that also has a really bad recent history of getting its elite prospects to convey into high end MLB studs, I don’t see why any of these guys should be considered special or untouchable. And if Painter/Miller/Crawford are untouchable, then forget about adding any contributor at the deadline, because no one else in the system has value even close to order of magnitude of a proven MLB vet. No offense, who are you planning on actually getting for those guys? Because Robert Jr. is the best available OF and frankly he’s always hurt, lazy, poor teammate and has the same issues Castellanos does with chase rate. Who do you think you’re getting for giving up those guys? There’s not Soto or a tucker out there. Let me point out Cody Bellinger sat out there all freaking winter. The Phillies didn’t think he was good enough at that point to just sign him. It didn’t cost them anything but to sign him to a contract where he was going to opt out after year anyways and become a free agent again. So all it would’ve cost them was 27.5 million dollars. so they didn’t think he was worth it just to sign him but now all of a sudden he’s worth two of your best prospects? That is absolutely stupid. What makes it even dumber he’s not even playing at the same level he did last year to even warrant it. Last year you could’ve made the case it warranted it because he hit 330 had 19 home runs and 75 RBIs after July 1. So if you want to trade those guys, what player do you want to trade them for? There has to be a player out there that’s worth the value. You don’t just trade guys because you need a player right now and he’s not good enough to warrant giving up that type of prospect. The reason they gave up sixto Sanchez, who was a high prospect was because they were getting an All-Star level catcher and arguably the best in baseball. catcher is a highly coveted position. Cody Bellinger isn’t that. Chisholm isn’t that. So please tell me what guy you’re talking about that you want to give them up for? It’s easy to be like we should just give any prospect up so we can at least get somebody of value to the team now. so next year when they run Into a similar problem and they don’t have those prospect but you gave them up for a guy who you deemed wasn’t good enough then what are you gonna do? You don’t have unlimited prospects, so you better be right when you do it and it better be for the right player. Unlike Atlanta you don’t just have unlimited prospects in your system to just give up every year. Thats not where the Phillies are as an organization. then again this is all avoided if the Phillies would’ve just done what they were should have done this off-season and sign an outfield bat that cost you nothing but money on your .240 comment: chase utley who was 22 when he hit at A+ ball (miller only 20) hit .257. So I’m guessing it would’ve been OK to trade Chase Utley at that point because he was only hitting 257. Let me also point out Jimmy Rollins at rookie ball only hit 238. at A+ ball only hit 244. I guess we shouldn’t have been excited as he hit only .244. lastly Mike Schmidt in his first season in AA (at 21 years old) hit 211 for the Reading Phillies. (Also Schmidt his first full year in the major only hit .196 thank god they didn’t unload him) so there’s been some really great players in this organization that didn’t hit the ball out of the park so to speak in some of their stops along the way in the minors. But the Phillies didn’t just trade them cause of one year at the start of their career hitting .240ish
July 8, 20241 yr The one thing I would agree on is there’s no untouchable prospect. Because if there was a player like a Juan Soto out there or a Bryce Harper or Mookie betts then you’re right I would give up those players to get it. But this market there isn’t that. It’s not a great market when Robert jr who’s injury prone and a ton of other issues, Bellinger, Chisholm and rooker are the best available. It’s not bad but it’s also not world changing talent that requires unloading your farm system Let me also point out the White Sox want a Juan Soto package that the Padres gave up for Luis Robert Jr. Luis Robert Jr isn’t Juan Soto not worth that type of package.
July 8, 20241 yr 54 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: No offense, who are you planning on actually getting for those guys? Because Robert Jr. is the best available OF and frankly he’s always hurt, lazy, poor teammate and has the same issues Castellanos does with chase rate. Who do you think you’re getting for giving up those guys? There’s not Soto or a tucker out there. Let me point out Cody Bellinger sat out there all freaking winter. The Phillies didn’t think he was good enough at that point to just sign him. It didn’t cost them anything but to sign him to a contract where he was going to opt out after year anyways and become a free agent again. So all it would’ve cost them was 27.5 million dollars. so they didn’t think he was worth it just to sign him but now all of a sudden he’s worth two of your best prospects? That is absolutely stupid. What makes it even dumber he’s not even playing at the same level he did last year to even warrant it. Last year you could’ve made the case it warranted it because he hit 330 had 19 home runs and 75 RBIs after July 1. So if you want to trade those guys, what player do you want to trade them for? There has to be a player out there that’s worth the value. You don’t just trade guys because you need a player right now and he’s not good enough to warrant giving up that type of prospect. The reason they gave up sixto Sanchez, who was a high prospect was because they were getting an All-Star level catcher and arguably the best in baseball. catcher is a highly coveted position. Cody Bellinger isn’t that. Chisholm isn’t that. So please tell me what guy you’re talking about that you want to give them up for? It’s easy to be like we should just give any prospect up so we can at least get somebody of value to the team now. so next year when they run Into a similar problem and they don’t have those prospect but you gave them up for a guy who you deemed wasn’t good enough then what are you gonna do? You don’t have unlimited prospects, so you better be right when you do it and it better be for the right player. Unlike Atlanta you don’t just have unlimited prospects in your system to just give up every year. Thats not where the Phillies are as an organization. then again this is all avoided if the Phillies would’ve just done what they were should have done this off-season and sign an outfield bat that cost you nothing but money on your .240 comment: chase utley who was 22 when he hit at A+ ball (miller only 20) hit .257. So I’m guessing it would’ve been OK to trade Chase Utley at that point because he was only hitting 257. Let me also point out Jimmy Rollins at rookie ball only hit 238. at A+ ball only hit 244. I guess we shouldn’t have been excited as he hit only .244. lastly Mike Schmidt in his first season in AA (at 21 years old) hit 211 for the Reading Phillies. (Also Schmidt his first full year in the major only hit .196 thank god they didn’t unload him) so there’s been some really great players in this organization that didn’t hit the ball out of the park so to speak in some of their stops along the way in the minors. But the Phillies didn’t just trade them cause of one year at the start of their career hitting .240ish I’m not arguing to unload these guys just because. If there is no acceptable deadline add, then keep them. I just think it’s very silly to call them untouchable. If a definitive outfield bat upgrade who is an acceptable fielder were available (and maybe that’s not available), then I would trade any one of them for that without hesitation. But no…I wouldn’t trade any of them for a random outfielder just for the hell of it. The point is that every one of them faces much longer odds of success than any of you want to admit. It would be wise to bet that Miller won’t even have 5% of the starts as a Phillie that Rollins, Utley, or Schmidt had.
July 8, 20241 yr 21 minutes ago, eagle45 said: I’m not arguing to unload these guys just because. If there is no acceptable deadline add, then keep them. I just think it’s very silly to call them untouchable. If a definitive outfield bat upgrade who is an acceptable fielder were available (and maybe that’s not available), then I would trade any one of them for that without hesitation. But no…I wouldn’t trade any of them for a random outfielder just for the hell of it. The point is that every one of them faces much longer odds of success than any of you want to admit. It would be wise to bet that Miller won’t even have 5% of the starts as a Phillie that Rollins, Utley, or Schmidt had. Bellinger could’ve been signed here without giving up anything this offseason. They made the decision they didn’t think he was worth it without giving up anything. But now he’s worth 2 great prospects? Laughable. Chisholm definitely isn’t worth that. robert’s isn’t worth what the white Sox are asking. Those are the 3. All 3 are upgraded bats and can field. None of them are worth the price if that’s the asking price. The Phillies told you that by not Fing signing Bellinger originally in FA after a monster season (his first after like 4 years) if Juan Soto or Kyle Tucker were available then people wouldn’t call them untouchable. Cause it’s worth it. People are saying that cause the market isn’t great enough to unload them to seem it worthy to take the untouchable tag off. Not saying he will reach those levels but acting like he’s on track to fail and just do it cause he’s hitting .240 at 20 is a little silly when you consider legit Star mlbs hit about the same and I’m guessing you didn’t want to trade them then Logan O’hoppe was dealt and he’s the replacement catcher for the all star game if Perez and rutschman drop out or get hurt. We NEEDED an outfield bat then in 2022. That goes right to your wheelhouse of what you are talking about. It didn’t win them a World Series. That trade looks not as great now cause marsh is a platoon OF and O’hoppe has been one of the best catchers in the AL this year and now need another outfielder cause he didn’t become what they envisioned becoming an everyday outfield.
July 8, 20241 yr 13 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: Bellinger could’ve been signed here without giving up anything this offseason. They made the decision they didn’t think he was worth it without giving up anything. But now he’s worth 2 great prospects? Laughable. Chisholm definitely isn’t worth that. robert’s isn’t worth what the white Sox are asking. Those are the 3. All 3 are upgraded bats and can field. None of them are worth the price if that’s the asking price. The Phillies told you that by not Fing signing Bellinger originally in FA after a monster season (his first after like 4 years) if Juan Soto or Kyle Tucker were available then people wouldn’t call them untouchable. Cause it’s worth it. People are saying that cause the market isn’t great enough to unload them to seem it worthy to take the untouchable tag off. Not saying he will reach those levels but acting like he’s on track to fail and just do it cause he’s hitting .240 at 20 is a little silly when you consider legit Star mlbs hit about the same Logan O’hoppe was dealt and he’s the replacement catcher for the all star game if Perez and rutschman drop out or get hurt. We NEEDED an outfield bat then. That goes right to your wheelhouse of what you are talking about. It didn’t win them a World Series. That trade looks worse now cause marsh is a platoon OF and he’s been one of the best catchers in the AL this year. Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker have an order of magnitude different value than Andrew Painter and Miller. Even a team looking to sell them would laugh away that offer.
July 8, 20241 yr How many previous Phillies prospects from the last 20 years would you not trade for a definitive but not superstar outfield improvement? Nola, Bohm, Rhys, Stott? 4 players in 20 years?
July 8, 20241 yr 11 minutes ago, eagle45 said: Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker have an order of magnitude different value than Andrew Painter and Miller. Even a team looking to sell them would laugh away that offer. Who’s says any of us would say not give up more than that? guessing it’s costing them painter, miller, riccon, Crawford and someone like tait/abel for Soto. Which is at least worth it due to the caliber player. The white Sox are currently asking for a Soto package the padres gave up for Robert. Which is more ridiculous cause Robert’s can’t stay healthy, has Castellanos issues and chemistry issues. Bellinger and Chisholm aren’t worth painter or miller. Unless you just don’t give a crap about prospect value and only care about getting a upgrade
July 8, 20241 yr 10 minutes ago, eagle45 said: How many previous Phillies prospects from the last 20 years would you not trade for a definitive but not superstar outfield improvement? Nola, Bohm, Rhys, Stott? 4 players in 20 years? Well considering the Phillies were a dumpster fire for a decade. Meanwhile past 5 years O’hoppe, Bohm, Stott recently have all been good. I’d add Ranger Suarez with how he’s been for us. Maybe they are drafting and developing talent better under Dombrowski then they had under klentak and amaro. You’re basing on bad GMs building bad farm systems meanwhile they’ve been light years better lately
July 8, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: Well considering the Phillies were a dumpster fire for a decade. Meanwhile past 5 years O’hoppe, Bohm, Stott recently have all been good. I’d add Ranger Suarez with how he’s been for us. Maybe they are drafting and developing talent better under Dombrowski then they had under klentak and amaro. It’s just the success rate of A ball guys that are 20. Nothing is special or different about the 2024 edition of the top prospects.
July 8, 20241 yr 19 minutes ago, eagle45 said: It’s just the success rate of A ball guys that are 20. Nothing is special or different about the 2024 edition of the top prospects. You are using a 20 year window where the Phillies prior to Dombrowski did a poor job scouting and developing from like 2010-2018. They’ve been much better since Dombrowski has taken over. O’hoppe was borderline all star, Stott was great last year. Bohm has developed into an all star. Suarez is an all star. Sanchez has developed into a nice pitcher. Alvarado has become a nice BP was a buy low trade and they developed him into what he’s become. If you want to play the 20 year game then go 25 cause it includes Hamels, utley, Howard, Rollins, werth, victorino (they got them rule 5 draft and developed them into all star players) and even Ruiz. convenient to stopped it at 20 years or not say last 5 years where it looks much better they sucked for like a decade with developing and farm system. You act like their farm system isn’t light years better now then it was from like 2010-2018. when was the last time the Phillies had 3 top 40 prospects in all of baseball in their farm system prior to Dombrowski? It might have been prior to making trades for Lee and halladay. Also Phillies investing more money now into their international scouting then they have in the past. Their farm system isn’t great but it’s much better than it had been at any point in time under klentak.
July 8, 20241 yr 14 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: You are using a 20 year window where the Phillies prior to Dombrowski did a poor job scouting and developing from like 2010-2018. They’ve been much better since Dombrowski has taken over. O’hoppe was borderline all star, Stott was great last year. Bohm has developed into an all star. Suarez is an all star. Sanchez has developed into a nice pitcher. Alvarado has become a nice BP was a buy low trade and they developed him into what he’s become. If you want to play the 20 year game then go 25 cause it includes Hamels, utley, Howard, Rollins, werth, victorino (they got them rule 5 draft and developed them into all star players) and even Ruiz. convenient it was stopped at 20 years. they sucked for like a decade with developing and farm system. You act like their farm system isn’t light years better now then it was from like 2010-2018. when was the last time the Phillies had 3 top 40 prospects in all of baseball in their farm system prior to Dombrowski? It might have been prior to making trades for Lee and halladay. Also Phillies investing more money now into their international scouting then they have in the past. Their farm system isn’t great but it’s much better than it had been at any point in time under klentak. They have 2 right now, 19 and 27. This farm isn’t isn’t special. It’s not even better by the numbers than it has been in the past.
July 8, 20241 yr 36 minutes ago, eagle45 said: They have 2 right now, 19 and 27. This farm isn’t isn’t special. It’s not even better by the numbers than it has been in the past. Painter, miller and Crawford are all top 40 by baseball America. And they have 4 in the top 50 according to baseball America . MLB pipeline has 5 guys in the top 100 Please show me the last time the Phillies had 4 prospects in the top 50 by baseball America and 5 in the top 100 prior to Dombrowski being here… I’ll wait cause it’s likely hasn’t since they traded Hamels to the rangers. But sure they clearly aren’t better at developing talent only O’hoppe, Stott, Bohm, Suarez developed into good mlb players in the time Dombrowski has come on here. Meanwhile prior that from 2010-18 they had what Rhys and Nola? And they had to fix Rhys cause kapler and klentak screwed with him. Should the farm system be better? Yes. But baseball America came out with a prospects list in 2019 before the season (5 years ago with klentak), the Phillies had 1 top 40 (heck 60) prospect and 3 top 100. Before klentak was fired after 2020 they had 2 in top 50. Right now they currently have 5 top 100 and baseball America has 4 in their top 50. They haven’t had 4 top 50 prospects in a while. Closest was pipeline had 3 in 2018 and 6 top 100 in 2018 but the last 3 were fringe guys because they drafted them highly and not what they actually did in the minors. They had more top 100 prospects at start of 2016 cause they made the trade with the rangers with Hamels and it made up half of them and they all were 55-100 besides jp Crawford. And none of those guys they got in that rangers trade remotely worked out due to poor development and scouting.
July 8, 20241 yr 42 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: Painter, miller and Crawford are all top 40 by baseball America. And they have 4 in the top 50 according to baseball America . MLB pipeline has 5 guys in the top 100 Please show me the last time the Phillies had 4 prospects in the top 50 by baseball America and 5 in the top 100 prior to Dombrowski being here… I’ll wait cause it’s likely hasn’t is during the klentak era. But sure they clearly aren’t better at developing talent only O’hoppe, Stott, Bohm, Suarez developed into good mlb players in the time Dombrowski has come on here. Meanwhile prior that from 2010-18 they had what Rhys and Nola? And they had to fix Rhys cause kapler and klentak screwed with him. Should the farm system be better? Yes. But baseball America came out with a prospects list in 2019 before the season, the Phillies had 1 top 40 (or 60) prospect and 3 top 100. Right now they currently have 5 top 100 and baseball America has 4 in their top 50. They need to get better but they are clearly better than they were towards the end of the klentak era. In 2018, they had Sixto, Kingery, and JP Crawford in the top 40 of MLB.com. Sixto would eventually peak at 15. Crawford peaked at 5. All flops. Well, Sixto wasn't...because he got us something great. Just last year, Painter, Abel, and McGarry were the "big 3." Painter at #6 was the top pitching prospect period. Abel was 48, but still a big time prospect. Mcgarry didn't crack top 100, but was still considered a prized prospect. 1 year later, Painter's value has slipped (he's also #19), he's no closer to the majors, and Abel/Mcgarry are now value-less seeds that will just be left in the soil for years. Point is, until proven otherwise, this year's crop of top prospects is only different because they haven't had a chance to fall short of their unrealistic hype and expectations yet. You hold prospects, obviously, when you are rebuilding. These guys are nothing right now and likely never will be. Using names like Mike Schmidt, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins is just silly for these guys. I'll settle for Sixto Sanchez...a future bust that gets us a veteran upgrade. You do what you can for incremental improvements when the team is crescendoing to a peak we see once every 15 years. By the time Miller even projects to being a good MLB player, we'll be on the death end of the Harper/Turner deals and will be shipping Miller out for younger prospects.
July 8, 20241 yr 27 minutes ago, eagle45 said: In 2018, they had Sixto, Kingery, and JP Crawford in the top 40 of MLB.com. Sixto would eventually peak at 15. Crawford peaked at 5. All flops. Well, Sixto wasn't...because he got us something great. Just last year, Painter, Abel, and McGarry were the "big 3." Painter at #6 was the top pitching prospect period. Abel was 48, but still a big time prospect. Mcgarry didn't crack top 100, but was still considered a prized prospect. 1 year later, Painter's value has slipped (he's also #19), he's no closer to the majors, and Abel/Mcgarry are now value-less seeds that will just be left in the soil for years. Point is, until proven otherwise, this year's crop of top prospects is only different because they haven't had a chance to fall short of their unrealistic hype and expectations yet. You hold prospects, obviously, when you are rebuilding. These guys are nothing right now and likely never will be. You do what you can for incremental improvements when the team is crescendoing to a peak we see once every 15 years. Crawford is still a starting caliber SS for the mariners. I’d hardly call that a flop. The Phillies moved him cause "he was bad” after 72 games. And yet he is still a mainstay for the mariners, won a gold glove and has been solid since. He was dealt for Jean segura (all star caliber player). Someone like Adam Haseley and Nicky moniak were flops. But frankly moniak shouldn’t have gone 1. That was a huge convo and people thought klentak made a mistake Again fine dealing prospects like sixto and Crawford if you get all star caliber players like realmuto and segura ( was in 2018). Not guys who aren’t that and are just incremental upgrades. I’m Cody Bellinger no 1 fan and i think he’s having a less than stellar year and no way shape or form worth your top 2 prospects painter wouldn’t even be on that list if he didn’t tear his elbow. He’d be pitching for the Phillies. And he might be a stud or he might have bust. But if he hit we likely aren’t having this convo. The only reason he’s dropped is due to that injury otherwise he’s contributing to the Phillies or near the top of that list still as he was definitely the best pitching prospect in mlb before the injury. McGarry was always thought to be the least talented of the 3. It’s why it was thought he was destined to be in the bullpen and he wasn’t top 100. Only Abel and painter were. And Abel has regressed but still top 100 by pipeline. Add on you made up for it with Caba, miller and Crawford. So again they are still developing at a higher rate then at the end of the klentak regime which wasn’t great. in the last decade worth of farm system and prospects the Phillies NEVER had 4 top 50 prospects by baseball America until now. Thats fact that you can try to tip toe around and shooting it down but it’s the first time in over a decade. So yes I’d consider that way better than what they have been particularly the last 2 years under klentak (2019 and 2020) you can trade prospects for incremental upgrades and you’ll eventually run it into the ground. And if we don’t win a World Series cause they weren’t big enough upgrades and deplete yourself with incremental upgrades it’ll be another long ass rebuild in the twilight of Turner and Harper’s careers. They could’ve dealt Stott and Bohm to help realmuto, Harper and schwarber. There were times they could’ve and was talked about. Harper went to management (stories about it) along with Phillies management squashed it cause you can’t just continuously unload your best prospect for incremental upgrades. It’s why the only top rated prospect we’ve dealt recently with Dombrowski was O’hoppe and it was in the hopes marsh lived up to his highly touted rankings (he didn’t but guess who has? O’hoppe)
July 8, 20241 yr The fact that Crawford was traded for a proven vet upgrade further proves the point. He ended up surprising as a legit starter despite flopping with us and it was still a good trade.
July 8, 20241 yr 16 minutes ago, eagle45 said: The fact that Crawford was traded for a proven vet upgrade further proves the point. He ended up surprising as a legit starter despite flopping with us and it was still a good trade. He wasn’t traded for an incremental upgrade like you are talking about. Segura was an ALL STAR the year he was traded. Phillies traded Crawford at the end of 2018 and segura was coming off an all star year. That’s different than two guys who aren’t right now. If we had this discussion when Bellinger was insane last year it’s a different story as his second half was nuts and would’ve put them over the top. But the Phillies bet he’d regress back closer to his mean in the offseason and he kind of did so why is he worth more now when he’s lost power and regressed? He’s not. Chisholm made it to an ASG in 2022 cause he got voted in but then got hurt and then missed a bulk of time the following season in 2023. He also missed a quarter of the year in 2021. And this year his numbers are ok not great you want to make the case for Robert i could see it. He’s a five tool player. He has that type of talent. However he’s perpetually missing time so there’s a chance you trade that and he’s unavailable when you need him. And has a list of other issues and they want a padres for Soto type package which is ridiculous as he’s not Soto
July 8, 20241 yr 38 minutes ago, iladelphxx said: Rooker is solid pickup. Issue is he’s a bad defensive player. I’d still do it for what it’ll cost. it’s essentially like having a slightly better fielding schwarber in LF. That said i tend to believe they want a CF like Bowden said. Rojas isn’t it or not ready yet. And if they get a 4th outfielder (was a report a month ago they also wanted) they can platoon marsh in LF where he’s better suited defensively.
July 8, 20241 yr Let’s talk numbers so we can really nail this down. Here’s the categories: 1. franchise cornerstone perennial all star 2. Quality starter 3. Replacement level starter. 4. Part time player. 5. Back and forth between MLB, AAA, back end of multiple teams’ rosters. Adding up to 100, what % chance would you put in each category for Painter, Miller, and Crawford?
July 8, 20241 yr I’ll go: Painter 1: 2.5 2: 40 3: 50 4: 5 5: 2.5 Miller 1: 2.5 2: 10 3: 40 4: 30 5: 17.5 Crawford: 1: 1 2: 20 3: 50 4: 20 5: 9 With these obviously subjective and speculative numbers (but let’s just say ball park accurate)…I’m giving a roughly 6% chance any one of the big 3 is a perennial all star and a roughly 60% chance at least one of them is a quality starter (or better). The prospect of getting someone who IS a quality starter RIGHT NOW…that’s arguably more valuable than all 3 combined. Again, I’m not debating the vets on the receiving end. Maybe they suck. I’m just arguing these prospects aren’t nearly as valuable as we think.
July 8, 20241 yr 38 minutes ago, eagle45 said: Let’s talk numbers so we can really nail this down. Here’s the categories: 1. franchise cornerstone perennial all star 2. Quality starter 3. Replacement level starter. 4. Part time player. 5. Back and forth between MLB, AAA, back end of multiple teams’ rosters. Adding up to 100, what % chance would you put in each category for Painter, Miller, and Crawford? I really don’t care to play your game. I’m not dealing two of my best prospects for "incremental” upgrades. They better be significant upgrades cause i can make trades for guys like Tyler Ward who’s an incremental upgrade as a platoon with marsh for far less. Add two guys who don’t stay healthy (Chisholm and Robert) and have chemistry issues and in Robert case lazy tendencies. Add on Bellinger a guy who was given up on prior to 2023 for lackluster performance in 2022. Was on a similar pace 2021 as he was 2022 but had injuries that year shut him down. he’s on pace to similar production (RBI, HR) as he was in 2022 and what he was on pace for in 2021. You seem to be willing to sell the top talent if the guy is just a solid player on a regression year. Good for you if you want to do that. That to me is a ridiculous notion. Especially when the Phillies could’ve signed him for nothing but money and thought he wasn’t worth it. I don’t sell top prospects for "incremental upgrades” cause o can do that trading other prospects going about it another way if this was a guarantee we get 2023 bellinger or 2017-2019 bellinger I’m all in. But that’s a way to big of a risk for him and a guy who can opt out (likely Boras client) at the end of the year as he walks away and you are down multiple top prospects and you might not even get that bellinger. Add on if he opts cause he wasn’t great for you then you’ll be paying him 27.5 mil for a guy not close to worthy of that.
July 8, 20241 yr 20 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: I really don’t care to play your game. I’m not dealing two of my best prospects for "incremental” upgrades. They better be significant upgrades cause i can make trades for guys like Tyler Ward who’s an incremental upgrade as a platoon with marsh for far less. Add two guys who don’t stay healthy (Chisholm and Robert) and have chemistry issues and in Robert case lazy tendencies. Add on Bellinger a guy who was given up on prior to 2023 for lackluster performance in 2022. Was on a similar pace 2021 as he was 2022 but had injuries that year shut him down. he’s on pace to similar production (RBI, HR) as he was in 2022 and what he was on pace for in 2021. You seem to be willing to sell the top talent if the guy is just a solid player on a regression year. Good for you if you want to do that. That to me is a ridiculous notion. Especially when the Phillies could’ve signed him for nothing but money and thought he wasn’t worth it. I don’t sell top prospects for "incremental upgrades”. if this was a guarantee we get 2023 bellinger or 2017-2019 bellinger I’m all in. But that’s a way to big of a risk for him and a guy who can opt out (likely Boras client) at the end of the year as he walks away and you are down multiple top prospects and you might not even get that bellinger. It’s an important game to play. It’s all about the odds. What % chance of a prospect becoming a quality starter (bolstered by what kind of upside) is too high to trade for someone who already is a quality starter? And are our guys at that point? That IS the game of wheeling and dealing prospects.
July 8, 20241 yr 14 minutes ago, eagle45 said: It’s an important game to play. It’s all about the odds. What % chance of a prospect becoming a quality starter (bolstered by what kind of upside) is too high to trade for someone who already is a quality starter? And are our guys at that point? That IS the game of wheeling and dealing prospects. No, it’s not. Because you don’t have enough information to make your argument. Have you scouted these kids? Watched them every year religiously? I haven’t and I’m guessing you haven’t. So I much rather ask a Scout or scouts or people who’s actually watch these kids play and actually put significant time into it then you and i who haven’t. No offense i take what baseball America or scouts have said over what you want to believe and their projections. Are they always right? No but they have put in the time you and I haven't. Also you are basing your numbers on what? You’re going based off what happened in the Phillies organization 20 years? I couldn’t give a crap less what happened 10 or 20 years ago. What you and I should care about is how guys have scouted and developed players since Dombrowski has taken over in 2021. Because that who is in charge right now. All i know since Dombrowski has taken over guys like Sanchez, Suarez, Bohm, Stott, Logan O’hoppe, Orion kerkering have been developed to be good contributors or even all star players at the MLB level. Heck even Bailey falter has found a way to be a 5th starter. Thats only in 3 years. What happened with klentak and amaro means nothing cause they aren’t here anymore, neither is a majority of that scouting department and Dombrowski is and has shown a better ability to evaluate and make trades and develop players (here and over his career). Add on the Phillies have invest more resources into their international system and into their farm system in the past couple years.
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