9 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

No, it’s not. Because you don’t have enough information to make your argument. I much rather ask a Scout who’s actually watch these kids play and actually put significant time into it then you and i who haven’t. No offense i take what baseball America or scouts have said over what you want to believe.

Also you are basing your numbers on what? You’re going based off what happened in the Phillies organization 20 years? I couldn’t give a crap less what happened 10 or 20 years ago. What you and I should care about is how guys have scouted and developed players since Dombrowski has taken over in 2021. Because that who is in charge right now. All i know since Dombrowski has taken over guys like Sanchez, Suarez, Bohm, Stott, Logan O’hoppe, Orion kerkering have been developed to be good contributors or even all star players at the MLB level. Heck even Bailey falter has found a way to be a 5th starter. Thats only in 3 years. What happened with klentak and amaro means nothing cause they aren’t here anymore, neither is a majority of that scouting department and Dombrowski is and has shown a better ability to evaluate and make trades and develop players (here and over his career). Add on the Phillies have invest more resources into their international system and into their farm system in the past couple years. 

It would be wise for a scout or GM to know the hit rate of top 5, 10, 20, 40 prospects over the years.  And that certainly includes our guys who have been on the list before.  Just as nfl draft picks #15-25 have a hit rate, so too do top prospects 15-25.  Seems silly to discount it.
 

Those who do not understand history…

So what is the argument here? Give up a guy who has a potential to be the next Bryce Harper, for a guy who is just solid right now? Since he has a low chance of ever even becoming that solid player you are trading for? 

5 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It would be wise for a scout or GM to know the hit rate of top 5, 10, 20, 40 prospects over the years.  And that certainly includes our guys who have been on the list before.  Those who do not understand history…

It’d be wise to know what their rate is with a particular GM in charge now and what HE has done over the years. not ones like klentak and amaro who no longer are in the system and bad GMs at scouting and developing. Those who like to prop up their finds with using data from incompetent GMs like klentak tend to have faulty data. Cause I’m betting Dombrowski’s data and track record over his career is far more vital then klentak and amaro right now. Hence why he is a hall of fame type GM and the others weren’t 

3 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

So what is the argument here? Give up a guy who has a potential to be the next Bryce Harper, for a guy who is just solid right now? Since he has a low chance of ever even becoming that solid player you are trading for? 

Yes.  Mostly because he also doesn’t have the potential to be the next Bryce Harper.

If Vegas could set odds on it…I could guarantee you they’d say there is a higher chance that Luis Robert Jr….as he sits right now in Chicago…has a higher chance of hitting a HR in a World Series for the Phillies at some point in the future than Aiden Miller.

19 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

If Vegas could set odds on it…I could guarantee you they’d say there is a higher chance that Luis Robert Jr….as he sits right now in Chicago…has a higher chance of hitting a HR in a World Series for the Phillies at some point in the future than Aiden Miller.

There’s also a solid chance he gets injured and not available when you need him cause that’s been his entire career. he has been in mlb for 5 years now. He’s played 100 games once in 4 years and his year he’d have to play every game the rest of the year just Make it to 100. And I’m guessing if you push him like that without having off days he’s likely coming down with an injury 

add on Robert is the only one of the 3 you can make the case he’s worth top prospect and he’s not worth a Juan Soto package they are asking for. HE’S NOT JUAN SOTO. (Bellinger and Chisholm aren’t remotely close as neither is in his class talent wise and I’m guessing no team is giving up two top prospects for Bellinger and Chisholm). And yet he’s injury prone, reportedly has chemistry issues with the locker room and has lazy tendencies (see Indians game last week). Those things also exist 

12 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Yes.  Mostly because he also doesn’t have the potential to be the next Bryce Harper.

I can see both sides of this and if you are going strictly off of odds then what you are saying is the safer route to go... With that being said unfortunately I'd personally go@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! route.

I completely get where you are coming from but, I'm not giving up potential great players for an already solid player that isn't getting any better and also may not even be enough to get you over the hump.

I'd rather play those odds that I develop a super star that can help for a decade than trade that guy for a player that is just solid that may not even end up helping you win anything anyways. 

7 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

I can see both sides of this and if you are going strictly off of odds then what you are saying is the safer route to go... With that being said unfortunately I'd personally go@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! route.

I completely get where you are coming from but, I'm not giving up potential great players for an already solid player that isn't getting any better and also may not even be enough to get you over the hump.

I'd rather play those odds that I develop a super star that can help for a decade than trade that guy for a player that is just solid that may not even end up helping you win anything anyways. 

I said before I don’t think anybody’s untouchable if the right player is out there. Sixto wasn’t untouchable when jt realmuto became available. He was the right player and a consistent all star level player to do it.  Arguably best player at his position. And even he only cost you sixto, Alfaro who proved to be a mediocre mlb catcher with the Phillies and a third tier prospect 

If there was a Juan Soto or a Kyle Tucker out there I’m 100% for doing that trade. Those guys are who you unload the farm for. However, there is not that guy out there. I’m not giving up Juan Soto package like the Padres gave up (what the white Sox are asking for) to get Luis Robert Jr., who doesn’t stay healthy and has a whole bunch of other issues. And no GM is giving up their top prospect for Bellinger with his regression this year and ability to opt out (boras client) and screw you or if he continues his regression and you are tied into 27.5 mil (also screwing you) and prevents you from likely going after Juan Soto in FA in 2025 offseason. 

5 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I said before I don’t think anybody’s untouchable if the right player is out there. Sixto wasn’t untouchable when jt realmuto became available. He was the right player and a consistent all star level player to do it.  Arguably best player at his position. And even he only cost you sixto, Alfaro who proved to be a mediocre mlb catcher with the Phillies and a third tier prospect 

If there was a Juan Soto or a Kyle Tucker out there I’m 100% for doing that trade. Those guys are who you unload the farm for. However, there is not that guy out there. I’m not giving up Juan Soto package like the Padres gave up (what the white Sox are asking for) to get Luis Robert Jr., who doesn’t stay healthy and has a whole bunch of other issues. And no GM is giving up their top prospect for Bellinger with his regression this year and ability to opt out (boras client) and screw you or if he continues his regression and you are tied into 27.5 mil (also screwing you) and prevents you from likely going after Juan Soto in FA in 2025 offseason. 

I don't think anyone is untouchable either, I just need more than Luis Robert or bellinger too. You don't build your farm up for guys like that. 

10 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

I don't think anyone is untouchable either, I just need more than Luis Robert or bellinger too. You don't build your farm up for guys like that. 

I’d be more in on Robert if he wasn’t injury prone. But he already missed 55 games this year. Only year he didn’t was 2023. Otherwise he’s not durable. Add on he does  odubel Herrera type of stuff at times. Like not even attempting to run up to catch the ball and throw the guy out at home (winning run) during the Indians game. Even if the guy is gonna score you have to do it and maybe something crazy happens.

Add on there’s been some rumors in that white Sox clubhouse with chemistry and involving him. So with a team like the Phillies where locker room chemistry is big not sure you want to bring him into it. So not only are you giving up major prospects but dealing with durability concerns, laziness at times and potential locker room disruption 

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I’d be more in on Robert if he wasn’t injury prone. But he already missed 55 games this year. Only year he didn’t was 2023. Otherwise he’s not durable. Add on he does  odubel Herrera type of stuff at times. Like not even attempting to run up to catch the ball and throw the guy out at home (winning run) during the Indians game. Even if the guy is gonna score you have to do it and maybe something crazy happens.

Add on there’s been some rumors in that white Sox clubhouse with chemistry and involving him. So with a team like the Phillies where locker room chemistry is big not sure you want to bring him into it. So not only are you giving up major prospects but dealing with durability concerns, laziness at times and potential locker room disruption 

That's the main reason I don't want Robert. The team chemistry is a real thing an important thing and this current roster has it in a good way. Don't want to F that up with any player they bring in.

24 minutes ago, John Blutarski said:

That's the main reason I don't want Robert. The team chemistry is a real thing an important thing and this current roster has it in a good way. Don't want to F that up with any player they bring in.

Honestly if it were just talent I’d do the trade. He has a bunch of other stuff. I rather make a deal where we get Bellinger for less and if he opts out then go after Soto. I still think that’s what the Phillies are gearing up towards this offseason. Think he eventually becomes their DH if he leaves the Yankees for the Phillies 

 

Amazing Whit Merrifield has a 0.1 WAR and Castellanos along with Rojas have a -0.1 

 

Fing dbacks. Sewald blowing it in the 9th and the Braves win 

13 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Fing dbacks. Sewald blowing it in the 9th and the Braves win 

Well at least we get schwarber back! 

2 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Well at least we get schwarber back! 

Might get Harper back too. Really hoping we can pull out 2 of 3 from the dodgers. 

Just now, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Might get Harper back too. Really hoping we can pull out 2 of 3 from the dodgers. 

Hopefully with a couple of bats coming back and a little home cooking will get it done

3 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Hopefully with a couple of bats coming back and a little home cooking will get it done

We avoid glasnow so that’s also good. Matchups favor us

 

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

We avoid glasnow so that’s also good. Matchups favor us

 

Let's hope our pitchers can handle the meat of that dodgers line up. The hitting struggles were expected with the injuries but, the pitching has fallen off a cliff lately with no explanation other than JT being out. In other words I'm more worried about the pitching than the hitting for this series. 

12 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Let's hope our pitchers can handle the meat of that dodgers line up. The hitting struggles were expected with the injuries but, the pitching has fallen off a cliff lately with no explanation other than JT being out. In other words I'm more worried about the pitching than the hitting for this series. 

The last week in particular they’ve been bad. Frankly i think guys are hitting walls. They’ve pitched a lot of innings so far. I think wheeler and nola are all top 5 in innings pitched in the NL. Suarez is top 10 in the NL. And Sanchez is only 10 IP behind Suarez.  

7 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

The last week in particular they’ve been bad. Frankly i think guys are hitting walls. They’ve pitched a lot of innings so far. I think wheeler and nola are all top 5 in innings pitched in the NL. Suarez is top 10 in the NL. And Sanchez is only 10 IP behind Suarez.  

That's true, I know they said on the broadcast of the one game that they led the league in innings pitched for the starters. The bullpen had the least amount of innings pitched. It's great that they are getting so much out of the starters  and not taxing the pen but, like you said they probably hit a wall. 

 

 

I'm out on any position player besides Kyle Tucker. The other potential targets just aren't significant enough upgrades to what we have, barring some long term injury to a current player on the roster. 

Plus, the way this team is built, thank God we have a few decent prospects, we will desperately need these guys in 2-5 years.