October 22, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, Kz! said: Insert the "stop, stop, she's already dead" gif here. I find the betting trends odd. What does that put Trump, at like -200? Doesn't really make sense from a gambling perspective with all the battleground states being at essentially 50/50. I have to assume they are guessing that polls are still under counting the Trump vote which is risky.
October 22, 20241 yr 3 hours ago, Tnt4philly said: yeah...repugs are voting for a guy found liable for sexual assault & it's nbd.
October 22, 20241 yr Gee, I wonder why 75% of the country don't take any criminal charges against Trump seriously... How is that even real?
October 22, 20241 yr Just now, mr_hunt said: yeah...repugs are voting for a guy judged liable for sexual assault & it's nbd. Oh wow, he was "judged liable" for a sex assault, huh?
October 22, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, Paul852 said: I find the betting trends odd. What does that put Trump, at like -200? Doesn't really make sense from a gambling perspective with all the battleground states being at essentially 50/50. I have to assume they are guessing that polls are still under counting the Trump vote which is risky. They're not really guessing anything. They're going where the money takes them. Cuban was on Maher the other night (he owns a share of Polymarket) and said Americans aren't allowed to bet on Polymarket. So all the action going on there is from foreign sources.
October 22, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, VanHammersly said: They're not really guessing anything. They're going where the money takes them. Cuban was on Maher the other night (he owns a share of Polymarket) and said Americans aren't allowed to bet on Polymarket. So all the action going on there is from foreign sources. It's the Russians!
October 22, 20241 yr Just now, mikemack8 said: It's the Russians! Maybe. It's not Americans, I know that much.
October 22, 20241 yr How did the dems find a way to end up with probably the second most unlikable politician of all time (behind only Hillary) as their nominee? When the DEI hire bites you square in the ass.
October 22, 20241 yr 3 minutes ago, Paul852 said: I find the betting trends odd. What does that put Trump, at like -200? Doesn't really make sense from a gambling perspective with all the battleground states being at essentially 50/50. I have to assume they are guessing that polls are still under counting the Trump vote which is risky. Something to consider: A lot of bettors are hedging. Because if you have financial interest in a future Harris administration but she loses, you could place a bet on Trump winning the election and get something in return. Are the lines correcting towards money coming in for Trump?
October 22, 20241 yr 9 minutes ago, Paul852 said: I find the betting trends odd. What does that put Trump, at like -200? Doesn't really make sense from a gambling perspective with all the battleground states being at essentially 50/50. I have to assume they are guessing that polls are still under counting the Trump vote which is risky. That's exactly what's happening.
October 22, 20241 yr 8 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: Americans aren't allowed to bet on Polymarket. So all the action going on there is from foreign sources. This is correct, even bovada has been shutting down accounts in MI, CO, IL, and one other state.
October 22, 20241 yr 9 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: They're not really guessing anything. They're going where the money takes them. Cuban was on Maher the other night (he owns a share of Polymarket) and said Americans aren't allowed to bet on Polymarket. So all the action going on there is from foreign sources. 7 minutes ago, mikemack8 said: It's the Russians! I don't care who it is. I imagine anybody betting doesn't want to lose money. My only guess is they think the polling on Trump is wrong again and he's actually polling 3-4% better than the polls suggest.
October 22, 20241 yr 7 minutes ago, toolg said: Something to consider: A lot of bettors are hedging. Because if you have financial interest in a future Harris administration but she loses, you could place a bet on Trump winning the election and get something in return. Are the lines correcting towards money coming in for Trump? Hedging makes a lot of sense for people who got Kamala at like +1500 before Biden stepped down.
October 22, 20241 yr 11 minutes ago, Kz! said: How did the dems find a way to end up with probably the second most unlikable politician of all time (behind only Hillary) as their nominee? When the DEI hire bites you square in the ass. Kalshi, huh?
October 22, 20241 yr 5 minutes ago, Paul852 said: I don't care who it is. I imagine anybody betting doesn't want to lose money. My only guess is they think the polling on Trump is wrong again and he's actually polling 3-4% better than the polls suggest. The issue with saying betting odds are representative of outcome probability in this case is that it assumes the average bettor has tight overlap with the average voter, which is probably not accurate. And also the fact that each bet is not weighted equally like each vote would be, though there usually are limits at most books like bovada ($3k), but not sure about polymarket. According to that artcile vikas posted last week or so, they must not have limits and you can wager large amounts on either outcome.
October 22, 20241 yr Dementia Donnie strikes again. In an email to supporters, Trump’s team misspelled the Steelers part of the NFL’s Pittsburgh Steelers name as "Stealers.” "Working at McDonalds, a town hall, a Stealers game — no one is working harder than President Trump to Make America Great Again!” it wrote.
October 22, 20241 yr 11 minutes ago, Paul852 said: Kalshi, huh? Exactly. That poll total Crap. Maga has no shot at holding the house. None.
October 22, 20241 yr 10 hours ago, Procus said: What these guys don't get is that the political party system itself is corrupt and a drag on self governance. Both parties are corrupt - although the Democrats take the cake. Well the Dems don't have a candidate who is a convicted felon. So i'd say the cake is in Maga's court.
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