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EMB Blog: 2023 Regular Season... and Post Season Blog

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@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! since you compared Hurts to Wentz in the fumble category, I decided to do an Eagles career comparison (adjusting Hurts to 68 games). 

Carson Wentz started 68 games as an Eagle. He went 35-32-1. He completed 63% of his passes for 16,811 yards 113 TD and 50 INT and a QBR of 89.2. He was sacked 179 times and fumbled the ball 58 times and had 8 rushing TDs. The Eagles made it to the Super Bowl and won it during his best season (yes we know how it ended).

Jalen Hurts has started 47 games as an Eagle. He's at 33-14 His win percentage is 70%. Let's adjust Hurts numbers to the same amount of games as Wentz.

If Hurts starts 68 games at a 70% win rate his record is 47-21 and winning is the bottom line. Stats wise, Hurts will be at 63.5% completion %, 13,008 yards, 91 TD and 42 INT and a QBR of 92.6. He's on pace to be sacked 159 times. He would also be on pace for 51 fumbles and 55 TDs.

At some point, it will be fair to compare the two QBs and ask if Hurts is on the same trajectory as Wentz. Their stats aren't too far off. Wentz has more yardage throwing to MUCH worse talent but Hurts protects the ball a little bit better, has the rushing TDs by a mile and well, he's a winner.

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10 minutes ago, RLC said:

For all the issues...
We're still a top 5 offense by EPA/play. 8th in DVOA.

The problem with this analysis it that the metric used is cumulative.  I suspect the efficiency of the offense is much, much lower if measured over the last few weeks.

2 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Hurts is a major problem. He plays hero ball vs advancing. That pass to Smith could have been a first if he ran but he constantly wants the big play vs moving the ball.

I think there’s a stress for him to make big plays because the offense doesn’t have any Rythm or ability to get yardage on short-mid plays consistently. He knows once they’re in the red zone their offense dies and they’re toast. I think Hurts had several good throws yesterday that were dropped, or a WR didn’t run through his route full speed and missed. 
 

We need those chunk plays let’s be completely honest, however, we shouldn’t have 2-3 guys 30 yards down the field every play. I think the offense looks as tired as the defense. 

3 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Hurts is a major problem. He plays hero ball vs advancing. That pass to Smith could have been a first if he ran but he constantly wants the big play vs moving the ball. Same with him checking the run and passing often.

I hate our route concepts for Hurts. He's capable of getting the ball out quick we just don't do it and when we do we have bone head penalties like the unnecessary one by AJ. That's a lack of reps.

Just now, Desertbirds said:

The problem with this analysis it that the metric used is cumulative.  I suspect the efficiency of the offense is much, much lower if measured over the last few weeks.

Or if they’re measured for a just the first half of games. That’s the real team we’re seeing still today. We got lucky no one out their foot on our throat in those comeback wins. We haven’t played one good game all season. 8th lmao. Please. 

1 minute ago, RLC said:

DVOA and EPA/play are more predictive than all the metrics you mentioned.

I'm not absolving the offense. They should be top 4, not top 8. But there's a path at least for us winning out.

Are they?  Pretty sure turnover differential is right at the top of the list for poor results.   Not scoring TDs also bad.   

The path for winning out in large degree is there because they have 3 games against 2 of the worst teams in the NFL lined up.  

1 minute ago, judunno said:

I hate our route concepts for Hurts. He's capable of getting the ball out quick we just don't do it and when we do we have bone head penalties like the unnecessary one by AJ. That's a lack of reps.

Especially with the weapons we have. There’s no way you don’t get one of AJ/Dallas/Smitty/Swift 1 on 1 with a bad matchup every pass play. 

Our route concepts are definitely a problem at times, but Hurts also can't read the field properly and leaves players open regularly.

6 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! since you compared Hurts to Wentz in the fumble category, I decided to do an Eagles career comparison (adjusting Hurts to 68 games). 

Carson Wentz started 68 games as an Eagle. He went 35-32-1. He completed 63% of his passes for 16,811 yards 113 TD and 50 INT and a QBR of 89.2. He was sacked 179 times and fumbled the ball 58 times and had 8 rushing TDs. The Eagles made it to the Super Bowl and won it during his best season (yes we know how it ended).

Jalen Hurts has started 47 games as an Eagle. He's at 33-14 His win percentage is 70%. Let's adjust Hurts numbers to the same amount of games as Wentz.

If Hurts starts 68 games at a 70% win rate his record is 47-21 and winning is the bottom line. Stats wise, Hurts will be at 63.5% completion %, 13,008 yards, 91 TD and 42 INT and a QBR of 92.6. He's on pace to be sacked 159 times. He would also be on pace for 51 fumbles and 55 TDs.

At some point, it will be fair to compare the two QBs and ask if Hurts is on the same trajectory as Wentz. Their stats aren't too far off. Wentz has more yardage throwing to MUCH worse talent but Hurts protects the ball a little bit better, has the rushing TDs by a mile and well, he's a winner.

Would be more fair to compare Wentz' first 47 games to Hurts' first 47.    The whole team soured at the end of Wentz' time, not just him.  And the coach was fired and the offensive coordinator/QB coach were bad.

2 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Our route concepts are definitely a problem at times, but Hurts also can't read the field properly and leaves players open regularly.

Careful - you will be accused by Sheil and his ilk of being a racist.

17 minutes ago, RLC said:

For all the issues...
We're still a top 5 offense by EPA/play. 8th in DVOA.

They have 2 TDs in their last 18 offensive drives.

16 minutes ago, RLC said:

For all the issues...
We're still a top 5 offense by EPA/play. 8th in DVOA.

Yeah but this is TATE the day after losing another game, the whole front office and coaching set up needs firing and we don't have enough draft picks to to fix all the problems with the team.

Even when we were winning half the TATER's were wetting the bed in the game threads, now we've lost two in a row against opponents coming off a long week the full majesty of the doom prophets can be unleashed, it's like an unchecked nuclear reactor, it's just running away with itself.

I'm seeing a couple of guys on the board who I hadn't seen in 18 months suddenly turbo posting this last month and a half, it's weird what brings the fans out huh?

5 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Our route concepts are definitely a problem at times, but Hurts also can't read the field properly and leaves players open regularly.

Both are true. Hurts is being gimped by scheme. But he's also not executing on the plays/opportunities that are there to be made.

1 minute ago, Desertbirds said:

Careful - you will be accused by Sheil and his ilk of being a racist.

I was accused of the same years ago when many of the issues we're still seeing were pointed out 

3 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Our route concepts are definitely a problem at times, but Hurts also can't read the field properly and leaves players open regularly.

Could be a function of passing lanes. He's not the tallest guy out there. But for whatever reason he only trusts Smitty, AJ, and Goedert for the most part. Take away those reads and he's got nothing. They need to start emphasizing check downs to the backs. That was supposed to be a huge part of the plans. How great Swift is as a receiver and all. We can split him out blah blah blah. Haven't seen it. 

11 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! since you compared Hurts to Wentz in the fumble category, I decided to do an Eagles career comparison (adjusting Hurts to 68 games). 

Carson Wentz started 68 games as an Eagle. He went 35-32-1. He completed 63% of his passes for 16,811 yards 113 TD and 50 INT and a QBR of 89.2. He was sacked 179 times and fumbled the ball 58 times and had 8 rushing TDs. The Eagles made it to the Super Bowl and won it during his best season (yes we know how it ended).

Jalen Hurts has started 47 games as an Eagle. He's at 33-14 His win percentage is 70%. Let's adjust Hurts numbers to the same amount of games as Wentz.

If Hurts starts 68 games at a 70% win rate his record is 47-21 and winning is the bottom line. Stats wise, Hurts will be at 63.5% completion %, 13,008 yards, 91 TD and 42 INT and a QBR of 92.6. He's on pace to be sacked 159 times. He would also be on pace for 51 fumbles and 55 TDs.

At some point, it will be fair to compare the two QBs and ask if Hurts is on the same trajectory as Wentz. Their stats aren't too far off. Wentz has more yardage throwing to MUCH worse talent but Hurts protects the ball a little bit better, has the rushing TDs by a mile and well, he's a winner.

Wentz was a winner early on too. Then he got banged up from playing to physical and holding the ball too long…trying to play hero ball.

sound like anyone else??

perfectly fair to wonder if hurts is at a similar inflection point…its a fairly common qb arc

14 minutes ago, RLC said:

DVOA and EPA/play are more predictive than all the metrics you mentioned.

I'm not absolving the offense. They should be top 4, not top 8. But there's a path at least for us winning out.

The "path" to winning out is a mile wide; the Eagles are playing four bad teams to finish their schedule.  The Seattle game is big because they've had zero success there for almost a generation, but they should win.  The last 3 games will be tough to lose, frankly.

The main issue is what happens at playoff time when the Eagles will likely have to win games vs DAL and SF to advance.

1 minute ago, mayanh8 said:

Both are true. Hurts is being gimped by scheme. But he's also not executing on the plays/opportunities that are to be made.

I blame him for his mistakes, and I agree he’s hamstrung by the offensive decisions. However, 3 fumbles, and a few drops is a huge difference in a football game. I think Hurts is getting the job done, and he’s playing above expected based on how poor our scheme are. We literally run the same few plays every game, and the fans, opponents know what’s coming. 
 

Besides that this is not a physical football team. Even Kelce as a lead blocker is barely touching people. Our defense is soft. Our offense is soft. AJ is seemingly playing half speed/effort and we’re not getting any traction on the ground. Just a very fluffy team. 

3 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

Both are true. Hurts is being gimped by scheme. But he's also not executing on the plays/opportunities that are there to be made.

There's always some sort of break down it seems like not on the same page or drop. Out of sync all year. Some of it execution... some of it wth coaches.

The problem is the coaches, both coordinators suck and now the team is pressing which is causing mistakes. 

1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said:

Wentz was a winner early on too. Then he got banged up from playing to physical and holding the ball too long…trying to play hero ball.

sound like anyone else??

perfectly fair to wonder if hurts is at a similar inflection point…its a fairly common qb arc

Wentz got more than banged up. He blew his knee out then watched a back up win a Superbowl MVP. He never recovered from that mentally.

Just now, ToastJenkins said:

Wentz was a winner early on too. Then he got banged up from playing to physical and holding the ball too long…trying to play hero ball.

sound like anyone else??

perfectly fair to wonder if hurts is at a similar inflection point…its a fairly common qb arc

Hurts is much better than Wentz. His ball placement is almost elite. I just really think the OC/Coach need to get some plays in the bill for better timing/quick hits rather than 5 step drops every passing attempt. 
 

He’s look even better if we actually had any will to run the ball and setup real  play action and misdirection. 

1 minute ago, DawkinsOwnage03 said:

The problem is the coaches, both coordinators suck and now the team is pressing which is causing mistakes. 

The results of the coordinators suck yes. We still don't know what these coordinators are because they are clearly under direct commands to do what they are doing.

3 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Wentz was a winner early on too. Then he got banged up from playing to physical and holding the ball too long…trying to play hero ball.

sound like anyone else??

perfectly fair to wonder if hurts is at a similar inflection point…its a fairly common qb arc

 

Mind blown Reaction Gifs

33 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

good at

 

22 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

F the stats. What do your own two eyes tell you about the Eagles offense?

Bingo!

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