10 minutes ago, judunno said:

It's a terrible assumption. Efficiencies go down with an increase in sample size more often than not. All we can do is hope but there's no data that guarantees anything when the sample sizes are small like in this case. No one knows what he would do with more snaps because he hasn't done it.  I'll believe it when I see it. This is the same FO that had good systems in place and trust that signed Bradberry to a lucrative deal and he was already in house. Further, there may be a good reason why the Jets limited his snaps. We'll soon see. I'm just not going to set the bar high for this guy as it's not really fair given he's coming into a totally new system with new responsibilities and an increased role that he's not accustomed to.

The video literally says all of that. I don't know what you're trying to prove, nobody claimed he was guaranteed to replace Reddicks production without a hiccup. The bar shouldn't be high for Huff because he's being paid as a 2nd/3rd tier pass rusher. Bryce Huff will be the 47th highest paid edge rusher in 2024, the 40th highest in 2025, and the 19th highest in 2026. Howie isn't batting 1.000 here, no systems perfect, but they've gotten to the super bowl twice in a 7 year span with 2 different coaches. Something is working here.

6 minutes ago, wussbasket said:

The video literally says all of that. I don't know what you're trying to prove, nobody claimed he was guaranteed to replace Reddicks production without a hiccup. The bar shouldn't be high for Huff because he's being paid as a 2nd/3rd tier pass rusher. Bryce Huff will be the 47th highest paid edge rusher in 2024, the 40th highest in 2025, and the 19th highest in 2026. Howie isn't batting 1.000 here, no systems perfect, but they've gotten to the super bowl twice in a 7 year span with 2 different coaches. Something is working here.

I love how a video provides evidence of what a player is capable of doing on the field, but the reality of pessimism prevents a viewer from accepting it. 

TJ Edwards had less snaps at first too. The snaps consistently increased each year and his grade remained relatively the same. Pessimism says that shouldn't happen ... or at least we shouldn't believe it will happen. 

1 minute ago, brkmsn said:

I love how a video provides evidence of what a player is capable of doing on the field, but the reality of pessimism prevents a viewer from accepting it. 

TJ Edwards had less snaps at first too. The snaps consistently increased each year and his grade remained relatively the same. Pessimism says that shouldn't happen ... or at least we shouldn't believe it will happen. 

Comes down to risk

There is more risk in the unknown and projection. And fundamentally loss aversion is a huge thought process in humans

reddick was a known, productive player. Much easier to envision him playing well again than hoping Huff can do it

10 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I understand the theory behind future picks being less valuable, but I was listening to Sheil break down the trade and he said the Eagles essentially got a 2025 conditional 5 based on how teams devalue future picks by a round each year. That’s just asinine. 

I have no idea how much to devalue future picks, but I will always take the higher pick, even if it’s two years in the future. 

The best explanation I saw broke it down something like this:

The Eagles have a potential 2025 dead cap problem they need to navigate this offseason. Dead cap hits with Cox, Kelce, Graham, Reddick/Sweat

• If Reddick played for the Eagles in 2024, he would have a 2025 dead cap between $13.5 - $14.7mm (And the possibility of getting a 3rd round comp pick in 2026)
  • Trade before 6/1 - Saves $2.2mm in cap space in 2024 AND no dead cap 2025 (They ended up paying the roster bonus, so I think this is down to $1.2mm in cap savings for 2024)
  • Trade post 6/1 - Saves $15.9mm in cap space in 2024, BUT $13.5 - $14.7mm dead cap 2025 (
  • Extend - Allows them to spread out the dead cap in 2025 to future seasons.

Basically Howie looked at this and saw Reddick/Sweat can save dead cap AND potentially recuperate draft capital. He needs to cut the dead cap hits down for 2025, might as well get a pick in return for doing so. Sweat agreed to the restructure, Reddick wanted more money, Eagles needed to get 2025 dead cap off the books, Reddicks gone.

58 minutes ago, paco said:

 

 

 

A future 3rd is a current 4th!!!

All draft classes being equal (they aren't but we don't know how 2026's stacks up against this years so pretend they are virtually equal), a pick is a pick is a pick.  The reason you see teams that trade for a current year pick and give away a future year pick is they have no leverage.  Their guy is sitting right there and they don't have assets in the current draft to get him.  So the team that makes the trade with them requests a future pick higher so no matter what happens they end up with more draft capital, not because a future pick is worth less.

So unless the intent is to flip that pick this year or next to move up, a 3rd is a 3rd.

According to draft value charts, a future pick from the next years draft if worth 1 round less. We took a pick not in this draft, not in next draft, the draft after that. Its worth more like a current 5th.

of course when that draft comes around its a 3rd. But right now, according to the value charts Reddick got traded for the equivalent value of a 5th round pick.

1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said:

Maybe Howie gets serious on April fools day and signs Justin Simmons.

He already did; I just spoke with him.

14 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Comes down to risk

There is more risk in the unknown and projection. And fundamentally loss aversion is a huge thought process in humans

reddick was a known, productive player. Much easier to envision him playing well again than hoping Huff can do it

I think it's easy to look at this move as likely making the team worse by losing him in 2024 but better in 2025.  The team is replacing Reddick, in part, with Huff.  Smith is going to get more snaps that would otherwise go to Reddick if Reddick was on the team.  Nolan Smith likely will not be as productive as Reddick would be in 2024.  Nolan Smith will likely be more productive than Reddick by 2025.  

1 hour ago, ManuManu said:

I understand the theory behind future picks being less valuable, but I was listening to Sheil break down the trade and he said the Eagles essentially got a 2025 conditional 5 based on how teams devalue future picks by a round each year. That’s just asinine. 

I have no idea how much to devalue future picks, but I will always take the higher pick, even if it’s two years in the future. 

I'm a bit doped up on dayquil, so I probably could have explained what I was thinking a bit better.

 

A future pick is devalued only if used as part of a trade for a current year.  First pick of the 3rd round this year is worth 265.  First pick of the 3rd round next year is worth 96 points if used as part of a trade this year. (38 points for the first pick of the 3rd round in 2026, which is what Sheil was saying)  If not, that 2025 pick is worth 265 when the draft comes around again.

 

So if the intent is that the Eagles are hoarding picks to load up on young, inexpensive talent to remake the roster (I.E. use that pick in 2026), it is not devalued.  If they use it as part of a trade in 2024 or 2025, then the criticism is valid IMO.

 

 

 

Also, I was looking at our list of FA's next year.  I see a lot of holes to fill and very few people who would actually net us comp picks, so its possible we get 0 comp picks since we will likely need to sign a lot of people.  Given that, trading Reddick now and locking in that pick makes more sense IMO.  Now we just got to pray he meets the requirements this year AND the jets blow majorly next year.

 

 

20 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

According to draft value charts, a future pick from the next years draft if worth 1 round less. We took a pick not in this draft, not in next draft, the draft after that. Its worth more like a current 5th.

of course when that draft comes around its a 3rd. But right now, according to the value charts Reddick got traded for the equivalent value of a 5th round pick.

Yup, agreed.  That's kind of what I was trying to say.  Until we know the intent, it's not worth getting worked up about from the devaluation perspective.

 

22 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

According to draft value charts, a future pick from the next years draft if worth 1 round less. We took a pick not in this draft, not in next draft, the draft after that. Its worth more like a current 5th.

I’ve always felt that’s undervaluing future picks. You could then theoretically trade your 2’s and 3’s every year for a 1 and 2 next year, and thus burn 1 draft to keep 3 first round picks rolling indefinitely.

I believe that ideology of future pick value was created by GMs who weren’t entirely sure they’d be employed by the time the lost pick came around. Which is why Howie seems fine playing with 2025 and 2026 picks, as with the Saints trade, Swift trade, Reddick trade, Reagor trade.

1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said:

Maybe Howie gets serious on April fools day and signs Justin Simmons.

Really?   You missed the announcement?   .    This story broke a few hours ago.

On 3/30/2024 at 12:07 PM, RememberTheKoy said:

Starting to get real tired of the 97.5 app sending news notifications of things that aren't news.  I don't need a notification for some new Tyrone Johnson mock draft.

They are floundering, unfortunately.  

26 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

According to draft value charts, a future pick from the next years draft if worth 1 round less. We took a pick not in this draft, not in next draft, the draft after that. Its worth more like a current 5th.

of course when that draft comes around its a 3rd. But right now, according to the value charts Reddick got traded for the equivalent value of a 5th round pick.

Correct.   The asset appreciates in value as time progresses, but the future pick is worth less than the current pick.   A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.   The pick you own in the current draft is better than the pick in the future draft, because the pick in the current draft can lead to helping the team immediately, whereas the future pick is guaranteed NOT to help immediately.   There's something to the idea of delayed gratification.  There's also something to the idea that having the asset in your possession now allows you to get more value from it, because you possess it for longer.   And, in the climate of the NFL, the future pick may not help the current coaching staff/front office personnel, because of the turnover rate... so GMs and coaches want the picks in the present, not in the future.   Howie (not Sirianni) has the luxury of waiting, because he seems to have a contract for life with Lurie.  Sirianni though likely would prefer to have the pick currently, because he is (or at least, should be) sitting squarely on the hot seat this season.  He needs results in 2024... he may not be around in 2026 to see that pick become a player.

25 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

He already did; I just spoke with him.

at the airport?   

Will we ever see something like this again?

 

 

 

I don't think so.  

 

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

oh this is terrific! Theyre going all the way this year!

Apropos the Embiid news comes on April fools day because it’ll fool fans into believing in the Sixers again.

7 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

oh this is terrific! Theyre going all the way this year!

1 hour ago, ManuManu said:

I understand the theory behind future picks being less valuable, but I was listening to Sheil break down the trade and he said the Eagles essentially got a 2025 conditional 5 based on how teams devalue future picks by a round each year. That’s just asinine. 

I have no idea how much to devalue future picks, but I will always take the higher pick, even if it’s two years in the future. 

I think his point was more they got the value of a 5th round pick rather than they essentially got a 5th round pick for themselves. I don’t think he was trying to say the Eagles got a crappy pick, more it’s disappointing they were unable to trade him for more than they got elsewhere because the league will view that pick as essentially the equivalent of a 5th in terms of its value in a trade.

1 hour ago, wussbasket said:

The video literally says all of that. I don't know what you're trying to prove, nobody claimed he was guaranteed to replace Reddicks production without a hiccup. The bar shouldn't be high for Huff because he's being paid as a 2nd/3rd tier pass rusher. Bryce Huff will be the 47th highest paid edge rusher in 2024, the 40th highest in 2025, and the 19th highest in 2026. Howie isn't batting 1.000 here, no systems perfect, but they've gotten to the super bowl twice in a 7 year span with 2 different coaches. Something is working here.

The video also compares his snap counts to Reddick's like that means something.

8 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I think his point was more they got the value of a 5th round pick rather than they essentially got a 5th round pick for themselves. I don’t think he was trying to say the Eagles got a crappy pick, more it’s disappointing they were unable to trade him for more than they got elsewhere because the league will view that pick as essentially the equivalent of a 5th in terms of its value in a trade.

Whatever point he tried to make, it was a dumb one. The idea of a 2026 3 = 2024 5 is absurd. Of course the 2026 3 is significantly more valuable, and I don’t care what any chart says. 

On 3/30/2024 at 10:13 PM, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Saquon and Lamar came out in the same year. Lamar has missed significant time with injuries throughout his career. Lamar is also a quarterback. 
 

Lamar has more career rushing yards than Saquon Barkley

 

On 3/30/2024 at 10:32 PM, LeanMeanGM said:

That’s just weird 

rUnNInG QUaRteRBacKs r BeST qUArTeRBacKz

16 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

According to draft value charts, a future pick from the next years draft if worth 1 round less. We took a pick not in this draft, not in next draft, the draft after that. Its worth more like a current 5th.

of course when that draft comes around its a 3rd. But right now, according to the value charts Reddick got traded for the equivalent value of a 5th round pick.

What is the data that suggests that's true? The value chart assumes that there future value that is inflated over a present value for players.   Roster building is a year to year process.  Because of the volatility of the draft, I don't think you can assign an inflated value to a current pick vs. a pick for the team the following season.  The question for the team is really whether they need more picks this year vs. more picks in the following season. 

2 hours ago, judunno said:

This assumption that he will improve even more with increased snaps and usage is some of the worse logic since Roob. That's not how it works. Lower them expectations a bit folks.

I didn't hear anything in this video that assumes he will improve even more.  The narrator even says it remains to be seen if his efficiency will stay as high with increased reps.  He said his effectiveness should continue, even with increased reps.  

Are you looking for efficiency, or production?  The top 10 players in sacks last season all played anywhere between 65-95% of the defensive snaps:

Maxx Crosby -- 1,081 snaps (95.41%)

Danielle Hunter -- 1,006 snaps (88.95%)

TJ Watt -- 931 snaps (82.46%)

Khalil Mack -- 934 snaps (81.08%)

Micah Parsons -- 864 snaps (80.75%)

Josh Allen -- 880 snaps (79.14%)

Myles Garrett -- 812 snaps (76.46%)

Montez Sweat -- 763 snaps (68.50%)

Trey Hendrickson -- 744 snaps (67.82%)

Justin Madubuike -- 757 snaps (65.43%)

 

Reddick played 862 snaps last season, which was 74.18% of the Eagles defensive snaps.  With what Huff is being paid, it can be assumed he'll get a similar workload.  Most of the expectations will center around productivity -- and, as I said yesterday on here -- if Huff and Sweat are able to get double-digit sacks, then what are the Eagles really missing by not paying Reddick $20M+ as he likely demanded?