2 minutes ago, RLC said:

This is only true for GMs who have to worry about job security. 

In practice, this is not true because not all NFL drafts are equal and not everyone's teams are equal.

Imagine you are the Arizona Cardinals. You are offered 11 and 23 from the Vikings to move off #4 overall. You are then offered #12 and a 2025 1st from Denver to move down. The logical move is to take Denver's picks because they will likely be drafting in the top 10 against next year, but if you go by the chart Arizona should take the Vikings' offer. The public charts are not equipped to handle future projections. That's not what they were designed to do. 

That is true, but everything is a team by team basis. Just generally speaking with trades in the NFL, the further down the road, the less valuable. Obviously there will be exceptions.

7 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Bo said he'd be pretty blown away if the Eagles went edge in round 1. He said the Eagles have so many other issues to address, and one of the "benefits" to trading Reddick is they only have so many snaps to go around at edge as it is, guys would be unhappy with their snaps, so trading Reddick and then adding an edge doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.And Zach added that it's a weak edge class and they'd be taking the 4th-ish best edge in a weak edge class, doesn't think it's a good investment with your first rounder.

Zach doesn't think they will go edge at 22 either.

Smith and Huff need their snaps increased. Need to see what we have in Smith and hope Huff can take the increased reps

1 hour ago, NCiggles said:

I think it's easy to look at this move as likely making the team worse by losing him in 2024 but better in 2025.  The team is replacing Reddick, in part, with Huff.  Smith is going to get more snaps that would otherwise go to Reddick if Reddick was on the team.  Nolan Smith likely will not be as productive as Reddick would be in 2024.  Nolan Smith will likely be more productive than Reddick by 2025.  

I assume you're talking about the defense. Better or worse, that's arguable, particularly before the draft. After that the better or worse argument will become clearer.

What is clear already, is that the team will be younger and faster. Last year's defense was painfully slow. 

Starting with speed: The middle was open all year. We had no one who could match up in there, especially after Dean went down. We've added a faster LB and a faster safety. If if if Dean can stay healthy that's a big upgrade...in speed. We brought back CJGJ, who's faster than Blankenship. Brown may not be ready. I'm with @HazletonEagle, let's sign Simmons and be happy about our safety situation. At corner, I'm assuming Bradberry will be gone, or at least irrelevant. I'm looking at Rodgers at slot corner and I'm assuming we draft a couple of DBs Certainly they'll be faster than Bradberry. Huff and Smith are certainly faster than Reddick. Whether they'll be as or more or less effective remains to be seen, but they'll be faster. And Rodgers will be useful with the new kickoff rules.

Then there's youth. Our DTs are all young. AT LB, White is 26, Dean is 23. I expect we'll draft an LB high, so, another young guy. CJGJ is 26. Simmons is 30, assuming we get him. The old man. Brown is 24 as of yesterday. Blankenship is 25. CB is more problematic. Slay is 33; Bradberry's 30. I think Ringo has a nice future in Fangio's system and he's only 21. Rodgers is 26. They'll draft another DB high and probably a project later.

A lot of question marks, clearly, but absolutely younger and faster. I think we can build from that.

2 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

That is true, but everything is a team by team basis. Just generally speaking with trades in the NFL, the further down the road, the less valuable. Obviously there will be exceptions.

100%.

The Jets are going in NOW. They are not set up to succeed in the 2025 season (for the 2026 draft). This is the type of team you bet on being anxious to play Reddick now and can be bad later. 

For perspective, I'd rather do this trade than get a 2024 3rd rounder from the Chiefs which is most likely to be pick 90+.

15 minutes ago, RLC said:

Anyone who applies "time value of money" to NFL draft capital should not be listened to. They don't understand finance, nor do they understand the economic arguments around discounting future picks. 

To put it into perspective, I hope everyone enjoys our 4th rounder from the Saints this year. Sure it's the 50th overall pick, but it's actually a 4th round pick because the Eagles got it in a trade 2 years ago. 

That's fun.  Of course, that pick hasn't produced anything at all for this team up to this point, and only NOW will it have a chance to offer any actual return on investment.   But, sure... let's pretend like they didn't have to wait for the pick to 'mature'.   The reason it is as valuable as it is NOW, is because the Eagles weren't able to use it UNTIL NOW (on a player, obviously they could have traded it before, but if it were traded THEN it would have been valued as a 4th round pick, and not a 2nd round pick).  

 

If I buy a CD for $10,000 today, and lock my money away for a 24 month period, with the promise of 5% APR... I'll get back just over $11,000 at the end of that 2 years, but not before.  Of course, if I need that money immediately to do some home improvements, that $11,000 2 years from now is only worth $10,000 today.   And that's what people are saying.  If they wanted to flip that pick to move up for someone in this year's draft to help make up for the deficit on the field, its not worth a 3rd round pick (or even a 2nd round pick) to the team acquiring it.  It would be worth much less... we could argue over it being worth a 4th or a 5th in this month's draft... but no team will give you a 3rd round pick, and definitely not a 2nd round pick for this conditional pick that the Eagles acquired for Reddick.

4 minutes ago, RLC said:

100%.

The Jets are going in NOW. They are not set up to succeed in the 2025 season (for the 2026 draft). This is the type of team you bet on being anxious to play Reddick now and can be bad later. 

For perspective, I'd rather do this trade than get a 2024 3rd rounder from the Chiefs which is most likely to be pick 90+.

I agree.  Trading for a future pick with the Jets is better than making the same trade with the 49ers... but there's still a delay on the return and that's where the lower valuation comes in.   The comparison would be like taking a CD for 10% with the Jets, versus a CD with 5% being the 49ers.   The Jets are clearly the better option, but either way, there is a delay in the final payout.   Meanwhile, there are folks who were hoping for a 3rd round pick in THIS draft, which could have the potential to either acquire a player that can help THIS YEAR, or even 2025... or if the Eagles wanted... to flip it to the future for a higher pick in 2025... and then perhaps again in 2026.  However, that offer didn't seem to exist.  

Maybe it's been discussed but you have to think the Jets will be pretty strong this year so a 2nd or 3rd rounder would be later in the rounds.  Also have to think this is probably Rodgers last year so if it is they're likely in trouble and the pick in 2026 would be much better.  This could have been Howie reasoning 

I just want to thank Howie for giving us another non rival team to root against for the 2025 season.  Twice for the saints was a fun ride.  Maybe he'll make a deal to the browns for a 2025 pick to bridge the gap.

5 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

That's fun.  Of course, that pick hasn't produced anything at all for this team up to this point, and only NOW will it have a chance to offer any actual return on investment.   But, sure... let's pretend like they didn't have to wait for the pick to 'mature'.   The reason it is as valuable as it is NOW, is because the Eagles weren't able to use it UNTIL NOW (on a player, obviously they could have traded it before, but if it were traded THEN it would have been valued as a 4th round pick, and not a 2nd round pick).  

 

If I buy a CD for $10,000 today, and lock my money away for a 24 month period, with the promise of 5% APR... I'll get back just over $11,000 at the end of that 2 years, but not before.  Of course, if I need that money immediately to do some home improvements, that $11,000 2 years from now is only worth $10,000 today.   And that's what people are saying.  If they wanted to flip that pick to move up for someone in this year's draft to help make up for the deficit on the field, its not worth a 3rd round pick (or even a 2nd round pick) to the team acquiring it.  It would be worth much less... we could argue over it being worth a 4th or a 5th in this month's draft... but no team will give you a 3rd round pick, and definitely not a 2nd round pick for this conditional pick that the Eagles acquired for Reddick.

RLC's point is that the time value of money model does not work well for draft picks. Take the obvious example of a first round pick next year being valued as a second round pick this year. That's obviously not true. The first round pick next year is more valuable. You simply have a choice of better players.

18 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Bo said he'd be pretty blown away if the Eagles went edge in round 1. He said the Eagles have so many other issues to address, and one of the "benefits" to trading Reddick is they only have so many snaps to go around at edge as it is, guys would be unhappy with their snaps, so trading Reddick and then adding an edge doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.And Zach added that it's a weak edge class and they'd be taking the 4th-ish best edge in a weak edge class, doesn't think it's a good investment with your first rounder.

Zach doesn't think they will go edge at 22 either.

They should realize the draft isn't for this year, though.  The Eagles have Graham, Huff, Sweat, and Nolan Smith as their DE/EDGE getting starter reps.  Graham will be gone after this year and Sweat is coming up on free agency as well.  

It all depends how the board falls.  As it stands, there are 21 picks before the Eagles.  4-5 QBs, 3-4 WRs, 5-6 OL, 1 TE, 2-3 CBs ... it all depends where those positional runs hit.  Do you want the 4th best EDGE, or the 5th/6th best OL, or 5th best WR, or 4th best CB?? 

It's not a great draft for the Eagles short term "needs", either (LB, CB, S).  Picking at #22 you're likely going to get the 4th best anything.  

38 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Sheil wasn't really saying that though. It was just a roundabout way of saying the Eagles didn't get very much trade value wise for Haason Reddick. He wasn't diminishing the value of the pick itself to the Eagles when they use it.

It's just a fact that 2026 picks are less valuable than 2024 picks and 2025 picks, and he was just kinda spitballing in real time with the equivalence in the trade value. He didn't come out and say "The Eagles basically got a 5th for Haason Reddick."

He wasn’t really spitballing in real time. The trade happened Friday and then he recorded the pod a couple of days later. This was a real thought of his, and he was diminishing the value of the pick by comparing it draft value wise to a 2024 5. 

 

2 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

They should realize the draft isn't for this year, though.  The Eagles have Graham, Huff, Sweat, and Nolan Smith as their DE/EDGE getting starter reps.  Graham will be gone after this year and Sweat is coming up on free agency as well.  

It all depends how the board falls.  As it stands, there are 21 picks before the Eagles.  4-5 QBs, 3-4 WRs, 5-6 OL, 1 TE, 2-3 CBs ... it all depends where those positional runs hit.  Do you want the 4th best EDGE, or the 5th/6th best OL, or 5th best WR, or 4th best CB?? 

It's not a great draft for the Eagles short term "needs", either (LB, CB, S).  Picking at #22 you're likely going to get the 4th best anything.  

Well both had OT as most likely. Then CB. They said something about CB that I agree with though and that's CB is a hard position to evaluate(Howie I believe has actually said this publicly before) and they may not be comfortable deciding between the CB drop off after the top guys are gone, and may decide that they can still get a top level OT prospect at 22. I do have concerns with them having to evaluate the next best of the CB group if the top guys are gone. That's why if they go CB I actually think it'll be in a trade up. And if they trade for a CB before the draft like Lattimore or Horn or someone else, then I think OT becomes the overwhelming favorite.

5 minutes ago, just relax said:

RLC's point is that the time value of money model does not work well for draft picks. Take the obvious example of a first round pick next year being valued as a second round pick this year. That's obviously not true. The first round pick next year is more valuable. You simply have a choice of better players.

He actually laid it out quite nicely. After the 2024 draft the value for us increases a bit but still not full value. The 2nd/3rd round pick won't see maturation of it's value until sometime after the 2025 draft. Until then if they were to trade it they're not getting the full value of the pick.

6 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Well both had OT as most likely. Then CB. They said something about CB that I agree with though and that's CB is a hard position to evaluate(Howie I believe has actually said this publicly before) and they may not be comfortable deciding between the CB drop off after the top guys are gone, and may decide that they can still get a top level OT prospect at 22. I do have concerns with them having to evaluate the next best of the CB group if the top guys are gone. That's why if they go CB I actually think it'll be in a trade up. And if they trade for a CB before the draft like Lattimore or Horn or someone else, then I think OT becomes the overwhelming favorite.

I agree with that for sure; OT seems to be a strength of the draft and fits the Eagles philosophy.  Hopefully there's a team that pulls the trigger on Penix as a 5th QB off the board before the Eagles pick.  With Howie's abysmal drafting record in the early 20s, though, I think it's just as likely the Eagles trade back/out.

20 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Bo said he'd be pretty blown away if the Eagles went edge in round 1. He said the Eagles have so many other issues to address, and one of the "benefits" to trading Reddick is they only have so many snaps to go around at edge as it is, guys would be unhappy with their snaps, so trading Reddick and then adding an edge doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.And Zach added that it's a weak edge class and they'd be taking the 4th-ish best edge in a weak edge class, doesn't think it's a good investment with your first rounder.

Zach doesn't think they will go edge at 22 either.

I was on board with a pass rusher but it's hard to argue those points. The 4th best pass rusher in the 1st is giving me Marcus Smith PTSD. I think a big part of the puzzle is what position does Fangio have each of Huff, Smith and Baun playing at. Are they LB or DE? I think they have big plans for Baun. Are they all OLB? What kind of DE do we even need?

Last year with the Dolphins the front 7 was as follows:

LDE- Christian Wilkins     NT- Raekwon Davis     RDE- Zach Seiler

LOLB- Andrew Van Ginkel    LILB- Jerome Baker    RILB- David Long    ROLB- Bradley Chubb

Those OLB are built like Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff. Now, if you go back to Fangio's Bears defenses, Leonard Floyd was a big part of his defense. He's build much like Nolan Smith.

2024 Eagles:

LDE- Jalen Carter/Milton Williams  NT- Jordan Davis    RDE- BG/Moro Ojomo

LOLB- Josh Sweat/Nolan Smith    LILB- Devin White    RILB- Nakobe Dean    ROLB- Bryce Huff/Zack Baun

I don't know where a rookie DE is going to fit on this team.

19 minutes ago, paco said:

I just want to thank Howie for giving us another non rival team to root against for the 2025 season.  Twice for the saints was a fun ride.  Maybe he'll make a deal to the browns for a 2025 pick to bridge the gap.

I've not liked Saints for years now because of their whining lol

 

1 minute ago, Mike030270 said:

 

Damn.  Is that the same guy that walked away from football at halftime of a game?

7 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Damn.  Is that the same guy that walked away from football at halftime of a game?

 

18 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

I agree with that for sure; OT seems to be a strength of the draft and fits the Eagles philosophy.  Hopefully there's a team that pulls the trigger on Penix as a 5th QB off the board before the Eagles pick.  With Howie's abysmal drafting record in the early 20s, though, I think it's just as likely the Eagles trade back/out.

Isn't trading back/slightly up in the 20s a part of the abysmal drafting?  There will he excellent value in the back 7 and likely O-line at our pick.  I hope he stays and goes back 7.

48 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

If I buy a CD for $10,000 today, and lock my money away for a 24 month period, with the promise of 5% APR... I'll get back just over $11,000 at the end of that 2 years, but not before.  Of course, if I need that money immediately to do some home improvements, that $11,000 2 years from now is only worth $10,000 today.   And that's what people are saying.  If they wanted to flip that pick to move up for someone in this year's draft to help make up for the deficit on the field, its not worth a 3rd round pick (or even a 2nd round pick) to the team acquiring it.  It would be worth much less... we could argue over it being worth a 4th or a 5th in this month's draft... but no team will give you a 3rd round pick, and definitely not a 2nd round pick for this conditional pick that the Eagles acquired for Reddick.

This example doesn't work with draft picks, because more draft picks aren't being printed and inflation doesn't exist. That's why you can use this analogy for finance, but not draft capital.

32 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

I was on board with a pass rusher but it's hard to argue those points. The 4th best pass rusher in the 1st is giving me Marcus Smith PTSD. I think a big part of the puzzle is what position does Fangio have each of Huff, Smith and Baun playing at. Are they LB or DE? I think they have big plans for Baun. Are they all OLB? What kind of DE do we even need?

Last year with the Dolphins the front 7 was as follows:

LDE- Christian Wilkins     NT- Raekwon Davis     RDE- Zach Seiler

LOLB- Andrew Van Ginkel    LILB- Jerome Baker    RILB- David Long    ROLB- Bradley Chubb

Those OLB are built like Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff. Now, if you go back to Fangio's Bears defenses, Leonard Floyd was a big part of his defense. He's build much like Nolan Smith.

2024 Eagles:

LDE- Jalen Carter/Milton Williams  NT- Jordan Davis    RDE- BG/Moro Ojomo

LOLB- Josh Sweat/Nolan Smith    LILB- Devin White    RILB- Nakobe Dean    ROLB- Bryce Huff/Zack Baun

I don't know where a rookie DE is going to fit on this team.

percent of snaps
DE -  112%
DE - Sweat - 71
DE - Graham 33

DE - Barnett 8

DT - 217%

DT - Cox   58
DT - Davis  44
DT - Carter 48
DT - Williams 42
DT - Street  7
DT - Marlon T  13
DT - Ojomo  5

OLB -  93%
OLB -  Reddick 74
OLB -  Smith 16
OLB - Patrick Johnson 3

ILB -  175%

ILB - Morrow 71
ILB - Cunningham 61
ILB - Elliss 10
ILB - Dean 15
ILB - Leonard 14
ILB - VanSumeren 4

There are 4 on the Dline

2 DT
1 DE
1 OLB

There are 2 ILBs

 

 

If Bryce Huff isn't good, I'm hopping back on the Fire Howie train after a multi year hiatus.