52 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

I was on board with a pass rusher but it's hard to argue those points. The 4th best pass rusher in the 1st is giving me Marcus Smith PTSD. I think a big part of the puzzle is what position does Fangio have each of Huff, Smith and Baun playing at. Are they LB or DE? I think they have big plans for Baun. Are they all OLB? What kind of DE do we even need?

Last year with the Dolphins the front 7 was as follows:

LDE- Christian Wilkins     NT- Raekwon Davis     RDE- Zach Seiler

LOLB- Andrew Van Ginkel    LILB- Jerome Baker    RILB- David Long    ROLB- Bradley Chubb

Those OLB are built like Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff. Now, if you go back to Fangio's Bears defenses, Leonard Floyd was a big part of his defense. He's build much like Nolan Smith.

2024 Eagles:

LDE- Jalen Carter/Milton Williams  NT- Jordan Davis    RDE- BG/Moro Ojomo

LOLB- Josh Sweat/Nolan Smith    LILB- Devin White    RILB- Nakobe Dean    ROLB- Bryce Huff/Zack Baun

I don't know where a rookie DE is going to fit on this team.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2023-snap-counts.htm

 

percent of snaps
DE -  112%
DE - Sweat - 71
DE - Graham 33

DE - Barnett 8

DT - 217%

DT - Cox   58
DT - Davis  44
DT - Carter 48
DT - Williams 42
DT - Street  7
DT - Marlon T  13
DT - Ojomo  5

OLB -  93%
OLB -  Reddick 74
OLB -  Smith 16
OLB - Patrick Johnson 3

ILB -  175%

ILB - Morrow 71
ILB - Cunningham 61
ILB - Elliss 10
ILB - Dean 15
ILB - Leonard 14
ILB - VanSumeren 4

There are 4 on the Dline

2 DT
1 DE
1 OLB

There are 2 ILBs

-

The Eagles could so something different than last year.

If the Eagles do something like last year,   there are only 4 Dliners.   You have the Eagles with 5 Dliners.

If the Eagles have 5 Dliners, the Eagles do have snaps for a rookie DE.

If the Eagles have 4 Dliners,  the Eagles don't have snaps for a rookie DE.  But the Eagles drafted a rookie DE last year,  and didn't give him snaps.

We really don't know what the Eagles are going to do.   I would argue that the Eagles lost 56% of snaps from Cox at DT, and the Eagles might want to replace those snaps.  

The Eagles didn't lose snaps from last year (really,   bringing in Huff and Baun should replace Reddick).   Reddick had 74% of the snaps,  which is quite a lot,  but Huff had 42 and Baun had 27 - 69% total.   Nolan Smith should also get an increase in snaps.

The DEs are the same as last year - 104 snaps shared between Sweat and Graham.

3 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

If Bryce Huff isn't good, I'm hopping back on the Fire Howie train after a multi year hiatus.

The Eagles have made the playoffs 6 times in the past 7 years. That includes a SB win and a SB loss. 

4 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

If Bryce Huff isn't good, I'm hopping back on the Fire Howie train after a multi year hiatus.

If Huff even goes laterally this year, it is a good move. Got younger, faster and ultimately for alot less money than Reddick thinks he's worth. We will see what he gets. Reddick may be very disappointed if he doesn't minimally duplicate last year. Again, there's a better chance of Reddick losing a half a step next year and beyond than Huff being a bust. Obviously being an undrafted free agent, he has great work ethic and will carry a chip on his shoulder.

1 minute ago, RLC said:

The Eagles have made the playoffs 6 times in the past 7 years. That includes a SB win and a SB loss. 

If this turns out to be a bad offseason Howie will have had 5 bad offseasons out of his last 7.

2018 - awful

2019 - awful

2020 - awful

2021 - really good

2022 - Historically good

2023 - awful

2024 - ??

Some of those playoff berths are because of Howie and some are in spite of him.

3 minutes ago, RLC said:

The Eagles have made the playoffs 6 times in the past 7 years. That includes a SB win and a SB loss. 

Imagine wanting to fire a GM or thinking if one move doesn't work out you would want to fire the GM with that resume.

1 hour ago, just relax said:

RLC's point is that the time value of money model does not work well for draft picks. Take the obvious example of a first round pick next year being valued as a second round pick this year. That's obviously not true. The first round pick next year is more valuable. You simply have a choice of better players.

But, there's a delay in getting that player... so the delay is why the first round pick is given, rather than a 2nd next year.   If you want to add talent to your team, there's a cost to having to wait to bring that player in.   The player drafted the following year may be better, but they are a year behind in their development at the NFL level.    That's why there's the offset from round to round based on the year delay.

1 minute ago, Sack that QB said:

If this turns out to be a bad offseason Howie will have had 5 bad offseasons out of his last 7.

2018 - awful

2019 - awful

2020 - awful

2021 - really good

2022 - Historically good

2023 - awful

2024 - ??

Some of those playoff berths are because of Howie and some are in spite of him.

"in spite of him". Every single player on the roster is someone that he picked! 

 

Rank	Team	GP	Wins	Losses	Ties	% of games won
1	Kansas City Chiefs	164	118	46	0	72
2	New England Patriots	164	111	53	0	68
3	Seattle Seahawks	164	104	59	1	63
4 (Tie)	Green Bay Packers	164	101	61	2	62
4 (Tie)	Pittsburgh Steelers	164	101	61	2	62
5	New Orleans Saints	164	99	65	0	60
6	Dallas Cowboys	164	96	68	0	59
7	Baltimore Ravens	164	95	69	0	58
8	Philadelphia Eagles	164	94	69	1	57

 

 

This was going into the 2023 season.  Top 8 out of 32 should classify as borderline "elite".  

6 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

There's freshness, but there's also situations.  If he's being used in different situations than the past, it would be foolish to expect the same types of results.   And, if he's used in those situations in addition to the ones that he excelled in last year, he may be worn down on the ones where he was more effective and as a result his overall production could actually drop.  He's a risk.  He's going to be asked to do much more than he was in NY.  We'll see how he responds to the new role and the increased work load.  BUT... I am not expecting him to hit double digit sacks.  If he does, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Yeah agreed. I think he’s a really good player but I don’t see him being elite. If he was here in addition to Reddick (or an elite DE) then I’d feel really good… But as the starter? As the joint main DE? No I don’t feel great about that.

4 minutes ago, RLC said:

"in spite of him". Every single player on the roster is someone that he picked! 

It's easy to spot out the ones with an agenda.

Just now, RLC said:

"in spite of him". Every single player on the roster is someone that he picked! 

I meant in some of those years the Eagles weren't a good team, but made the playoffs anyway. The Eagles weren't very good in 2019 but made the playoffs anyway. The Eagles weren't good in 2021 but made the playoffs anyway. The Eagles in 2023... well, yeah they made the playoffs but their season ended prematurely and fell apart in large part because of his horrible offseason.

I just really don't consider the playoff numbers all that meaningful. It all depends on the context. Like, we all considered 2023 a major failure of a season, but I'm somehow supposed to count that as a positive notch for the GM. Can't have it both ways.

Now, admittedly, I was being a little hyperbolic. I don't know if I will actually truly want Howie fired if Bryce Huff sucks, but my opinion of him will definitely have crashed, and if the offseason on the whole turns out to be a big bust, then I definitely won't be waving the pom poms for Howie anymore.

 

6 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

But, there's a delay in getting that player... so the delay is why the first round pick is given, rather than a 2nd next year.   If you want to add talent to your team, there's a cost to having to wait to bring that player in.   The player drafted the following year may be better, but they are a year behind in their development at the NFL level.    That's why there's the offset from round to round based on the year delay.

I get all that. It comes down to this: you’re going to get a better player in a higher round than in a lower round. Several posters have shared the same point - that of taking a longer view will lead to better value. If you consistently draft better players you’ll be a better team. So, better to draft a better player a year later than a lesser player a year earlier.

 I hope I explained that better.

The time to fire Howie was after the 2020 off-season. Everyone was on board. No one would have pushed back. We'd have to go 3-14 for Howie to get fired after 2024.

46 minutes ago, RLC said:

This example doesn't work with draft picks, because more draft picks aren't being printed and inflation doesn't exist. That's why you can use this analogy for finance, but not draft capital.

People don't invest simply because of inflation and printed money.  They invest to increase their wealth.  The CD analogy isn't great for creating 'wealth', as it barely beats inflation most years... but the point is basically the same.    While draft picks are finite, the 'cost' of waiting matters in the development of a team and the life of a coach/GM.  Very few coaches/GMs have the luxury of delayed gratification, so giving up an asset in the present needs to pay big dividends for the future to make it worth while.   

 

Personally, losing Reddick for 2024 hurts.  And it would be really nice to be able to bring in a piece for THIS year's draft to help stem that loss of talent.  BUT, they couldn't get high compensation for him.  So, they choose to take a later year for a higher round in return... otherwise, I think the Jets would have been very happy to give up a 4th round or 5th round pick for Reddick in THIS draft (similar to how the Eagles got Swift last year for a 5th round pick in the moment).  

One major thing to note. Huff has a ton less wear and tear on his body than Reddick. Especially the last 2 seasons. Very optimistic with him increasing snaps he will be fine. Track record is Eagles like to rotate and should fit in perfectly with Smith. Also he has played on both of the line in NY and offers that flexibility of moving him around. Sure they have a clear plan in how to optimize usage here under Fangio. Another thing I like is he has 15 pounds  and 2 inches on Reddick.

I wonder what the blogs reaction will be when Huff only has 6.5 sacks this year

9 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

we all considered 2023 a major failure of a season,

started 10-1,  made the playoffs.  wouldn't call that a major failure.

2 minutes ago, Swoop said:

I wonder what the blogs reaction will be when Huff only has 6.5 sacks this year

Some will gloat and some will make excuses because Howie can't be wrong

Their defense will be molded into something that is good enough.  I don’t expect it to be the reason they win a SB.  But it’s going to improve.

They have a great OL and great weapons.

The only variable at this point is Hurts. Is he going to be a guy that wins SBs or is he going to be a Kirk Cousins?  They’ve given him everything anyone can ask for to succeed.

6 minutes ago, just relax said:

I get all that. It comes down to this: you’re going to get a better player in a higher round than in a lower round. Several posters have shared the same point - that of taking a longer view will lead to better value. If you consistently draft better players you’ll be a better team. So, better to draft a better player a year later than a lesser player a year earlier.

 I hope I explained that better.

I agree with you on all points.  The issue is that the Eagles need defensive talent THIS YEAR.  They are willing to wait, because they got a higher round pick in return.  But, the reason they got the higher round compensation is BECAUSE its 2026, not 2024.  The Eagles would be foolish to have turned down a 3rd round pick in this year's draft from the Jets, in order to get a 3rd round pick in 2026 from the Jets, even with the chance at the increased round by waiting.   A 3rd round pick from the Jets this year is #72.  That would been a better return for Reddick.  Turning that down and preferring the 3rd in 2026 is nuts.   But that was never on the table.  The Eagles got a higher round pick, because it wasn't this year.  

3 minutes ago, RLC said:

The time to fire Howie was after the 2020 off-season. Everyone was on board. No one would have pushed back. We'd have to go 3-14 for Howie to get fired after 2024.

Howie wouldn't be fired even if they went 0-17. The Eagles will never do it.

But I think Howie is a boom or bust GM. I think his ceiling is higher than any GM in the NFL. But his floor is really low. He's had some absolutely terrible offseasons, and I put the lion share of the blame for the 2017 team crashing and burning on him chaining together multiple terrible offseasons in a row. Then he rebounded in 2021 and 2022.

But if this offseason ends up not working out well, I will grow tired of the hot and cold spells with Howie. And would have to think about whether I'd prefer a GM with a lower ceiling but less dramatic swings in the extremes.

16 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

But, there's a delay in getting that player... so the delay is why the first round pick is given, rather than a 2nd next year.   If you want to add talent to your team, there's a cost to having to wait to bring that player in.   The player drafted the following year may be better, but they are a year behind in their development at the NFL level.    That's why there's the offset from round to round based on the year delay.

Yes... there is an opportunity cost for having to wait for an asset to mature in order to bring on a contributing player.

6 minutes ago, RLC said:

The time to fire Howie was after the 2020 off-season. Everyone was on board. No one would have pushed back. We'd have to go 3-14 for Howie to get fired after 2024.

Yup.   And the time to Sirianni just passed.   If there's another disastrous season in 2025, he's gone.  But, if they turn it around, I think they lose Moore, and then they have the disaster again in 2025 or 2026.