28 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

you’re not maximizing it because he’s not gonna get enough targets and frankly reps necessary to maximize that pick on his rookie deal. plus the fact that you have two guys ahead of him and they’re getting most of the targets. And then if not them Barkley annd goedert also still exist in this offense. So he may be your fourth or fifth option in the offense for 2 or 3 years. so for possibly 2-3 years he’s your 3rd wr and 4-5th option then he’s due for an extension. so the cheap years you have him for you didn’t maximize his talent by being the 3rd wr and the 4-5th option in the offense. 

So they can afford it doesn’t mean it’s good use of resources not maximizing the value. You don’t need to spend 22 for a 3rd wr and 4/5th option in the offense to give yourself another dimension especially in a deep wr class 

also, you’re unbelievable burden is also a burden upon yourself to keep everyone happy. Aj brown was irritated last year with the amount of targets he got at times. Now you are inserting Barkley and a first round rookie into the offense. So even less targets (with brown having very little guaranteed money in 2025 & 2026). I see that causing a problem for a guy who is gonna want an extension and wants the ball

please show me another team that has three top end wide receivers in their offense? Let alone paying two of them to massive extensions then still taking a WR in the first round.  Dolphins have waddle and hill. Rams have kupp and nucua. Niners have aiyuk and deebo. Bears have moore and allen. Bengals had Boyd, jamarr and Higgins. And that’s because two of them were on rookie contracts. One of them wasn’t a first round pick rookie contract. They weren’t paying two guys $100 mil in extensions then drafting another Wr in the first round. With paying hurts and his cap number increasing more and more after every year you are deciding to pay 2 WRs $100 mil contracts and then using 22nd pick. So you have all this money and now resources tied into WR when you have holes all over the defense and need help going forward at OL. It’s not a good use of resources (nor maximizing the players value) unless you don’t want to pay both smith and brown and trade one of them to get picks back and see that pick at 22 is replacing one of them relatively soon 

I will make you this bet right now, if they draft a wide receiver in the first round that Smith or AJ Brown is not gonna be here in 2 years. brown has a $26 mil cap hit in 2025 and $41 mil in 2026. He has 0 guaranteed in 2025 and 2026 (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a-j-brown-100m-contract-details-released-eagles-give-receiver-team-friendly-deal-for-duration-of-agreement/amp/). So something is happening with aj brown in 2025 offseason or 2026 at the latest. I don’t see the eagles paying smith $100 mil extension, brown $100+ mil and using 22 at wr and keeping all of them for 3-4 years. It’s very likely brown or smith would be gone within the next two years

Our OC used 3 WR sets almost 80% of the time last year. There are plenty of reps. Quez, Julio and Zacchaeus had 60 targets between them last year. So getting a third WR 50 targets by simply using a single third WR rather than a platoon is easily achievable without taking anything away from Brown, Smith or Goedert. Of course, you can also pull a few targets away from each of them to juice those numbers up to 70+. So, no, reps and targets is not a problem in the slightest and Brown or Smith do not need any significant number of fewer targets. And this is without accounting for injuries.

Another team with 3 top end receivers? The Seahawks had Metcalf, Lockett and Smith. They all had 90+ targets. The Texans have Diggs, Collins and Dell. The Rams have Kupp, Nacua and Atwell and they all had 65+ targets. This idea that you can’t throw to 3 receivers just isn’t true.

Maybe we would let Brown or Smith go, but it isn’t a necessity. These are individual situations. You would have the rookie on a cost controlled deal. There is absolutely no imperative to jettison Brown or Smith. You could elect to jettison one or the other or both to free up money because you think the opportunity cost is better to spend it elsewhere, but there’s no reason you must do so.

2 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

You aren’t paying aj brown next year. Smith next year. And spending a first round pick having Thomas be your third wr for multiple years on that contract. It’s not maximizing the production or value of that pick to have all 3 for multiple years. It likely means brown is gone next year or smith isn’t getting an extension. There’s no way those 3 are playing together for 3-4 years while you’re paying aj brown $25 mil a year and smith $25 mil a year. Not only that having all 3 of those guys not have issues with the targets they are getting. Meanwhile Barkley and goedert also taking away targets and touches.

also, your example with the Vikings, Reed was gone after two years with Randy Moss. And he was in his 30s already. And Cris Carter was also getting old as he was 33 when Randy Moss was drafted. AJ Brown is currently 27 and Smith is 25.

if you draft Thomas, it’s probably signaling either eagles are moving on from brown within the next two years (who’s cap number is $26 mil next year and 41 in 2026) or they are having issues getting an extension done with smith and trading him to get value back cause they can’t get a deal done. Feels like it would be the former  

I think the more relevant and recent example to this situation would be Cowboys and CeDee. They went BPA and when he fell, was too good to pass up. When they drafted him they had Cooper and Gallup at 26 and 24, and both coming of 1k seasons.

I wouldn't be a fan of the strategy but just laying it out there that there is precedent for it. And yes, its something you can probably only do for 3-4 years max (when the 5th year option or extension kicks in, it probably gets too expensive). If Thomas turns out to be a stud, you are moving on from Brown or Smith at that point (as the Cowboys did with Cooper)

7 hours ago, TEW said:

Our OC used 3 WR sets almost 80% of the time last year. There are plenty of reps. Quez, Julio and Zacchaeus had 60 targets between them last year. So getting a third WR 50 targets by simply using a single third WR rather than a platoon is easily achievable without taking anything away from Brown, Smith or Goedert. Of course, you can also pull a few targets away from each of them to juice those numbers up to 70+. So, no, reps and targets is not a problem in the slightest and Brown or Smith do not need any significant number of fewer targets. And this is without accounting for injuries.

Another team with 3 top end receivers? The Seahawks had Metcalf, Lockett and Smith. They all had 90+ targets. The Texans have Diggs, Collins and Dell. The Rams have Kupp, Nacua and Atwell and they all had 65+ targets. This idea that you can’t throw to 3 receivers just isn’t true.

Maybe we would let Brown or Smith go, but it isn’t a necessity. These are individual situations. You would have the rookie on a cost controlled deal. There is absolutely no imperative to jettison Brown or Smith. You could elect to jettison one or the other or both to free up money because you think the opportunity cost is better to spend it elsewhere, but there’s no reason you must do so.

Again, AJ Brown was  happy all the time last year when he got more targets than anyone all year? Yeah he exploded multiple times. Also Moore likes using his RBs out of the backfield and Barkley is going to be used that way. Frankly he should cause that’s one of his best attributes. Those are targets that are being taken away from brown, smith and goedert ans our 3rd wr last year had basically nothing. So saquon is going to take targets away from all three of those guys as is. Now we are adding another first round WR who’s gonna take more. 

Texans didn’t use 3 no. 1 picks on WRs. Essentially the eagles would’ve dealt a first for brown. Used a first on smith and pick 22. Also  not paying all 3 of those guys. Collins and dell are on rookie deals and neither were first rounders. They are making peanuts. Diggs is the only one that’s being paid and he is only there for a year. They also aren’t paying their Qb. He’s on a rookie contract. So they can do that. I’d add Collins and diggs need contracts for 2025. Let’s see if both are even back in 2025.

Seattle is also not paying Tyler Lockett and dk both $100 million in extensions. Also Lockett is 32. They drafted JSN to replace him very likely in 2025. they are likely moving on from lockett at the end of the year cause his cap number is $30 mil in 2025 and save nearly $18 mil. Heck there is a chance DK isn’t there in 2025. He’s got a 29 mil cap number and just 7.5 mil dead money and $22 mil cap savings (last year of his contract is 2025). So he needs either an extension or he very well might be on the trade block or gone. Jsn also went 20th and he had 628 yards receiving. They drafted him to ultimately replace Lockett who was an older player or reduce lockett’s role and get him on a cheaper contract at that point 

rams didn’t spend a 1st rounder on anyone of those guys. Nucua was a 5th round pick. Kupp is the only one making any money on those. And atwell was considered a bust before last year. again they aren’t paying 2 guys at wr massive extensions nor using multiple first round picks at WR. Frankly i don’t consider atwell a high end WR. Atwell’s best year was last year and he had 483 yards and that was with kupp missing time. That doesn’t scream high end wr 

You can believe whatever you want. Take the bet if you strongly believe brown, smith and that first round pick will all be happy and be here past 2025.  I’m Willing to bet you by the start of the 2026 season if they take a wide receiver in the first round, one of those two guys in brown or smith is not gonna be here.

i’m gonna put it this way if I’m taking a guy in the first round, at 22 or I’m trading up in the first round, it’s because I believe in a year or two he could be a really good  number 1 or number 2 wide receiver. So if that’s the case, why am I going to pay both AJ Brown and Smith a boatload of money? Cause I’m drafting that kid under the assumption sooner rather than later i can get that production from him for a fraction of the price. And i can recoup draft capital dealing one of those two and apply the draft capital and savings elsewhere that my team badly needs. Not sitting there for 3-4 years with my first round pick being my no. 3 wr.

** also Frank Martin who came up with the idea for Thomas said as part of his reasoning for doing it that the eagles weren’t going to be able to afford aj brown and smith by 2026 due to how expensive both were going to be. So Thomas was going to be Aj brown’s replacement at that point to save themselves the money of paying both Aj brown and smith. So even his logic behind going after a Wr in the first was that Aj brown was not going to be here after 2025. 

Ravens last year - Zay Flowers 1st round,  Bateman 1st round,  OBJ $15 Million or so

last year,  Brown and Smith played too many snaps and got hurt at the end of the year.   One good way to prevent that from happening, and to work toward Brown and Smith healthy for the playoffs, is to have a really good first round backup come in and take snaps from Brown and Smith and let them rest.  

We can't say that Thomas will be great, there are first round misses on WR,  but he should be an upgrade over Quez/Oz,  and should get snaps and let Brown and Smith rest.  As a general weapon I'd rather have Parris Campbell out there, I think.   It could turn out that Thomas added to Brown and Smith - a good version of Quez who can catch those intercepted balls and turn them into TDs - really cranks the offense up.   The 4th best WR would improve the Eagles  There is a spot for another WR. 

The same reasoning is applied to CB,  where the need is greater.  The roster can use an additional really good player at CB,  immediately.  Many mocks send Cooper DeJean or Nate Wiggins to the Eagles at 22.   Adding great player to the defense at CB should be beneficial in 2024,  same is true with WR. 

39 minutes ago, kiwieagle said:

I think the more relevant and recent example to this situation would be Cowboys and CeDee. They went BPA and when he fell, was too good to pass up. When they drafted him they had Cooper and Gallup at 26 and 24, and both coming of 1k seasons.

I wouldn't be a fan of the strategy but just laying it out there that there is precedent for it. And yes, its something you can probably only do for 3-4 years max (when the 5th year option or extension kicks in, it probably gets too expensive). If Thomas turns out to be a stud, you are moving on from Brown or Smith at that point (as the Cowboys did with Cooper)

Part of the reason why they did that was they knew they were going to move on from Amari Cooper or Gallup in a year or two. They had to make a decision cause they weren’t gonna pay both especially not with how Jerry jones handles their cap situation. They wanted to draft a WR cause it was good value and they knew that was coming to a head. It’s why entering year 3 with lamb and they dealt cooper away and paid Gallup.  Gallup didn’t get his extension until it was known cooper was being dealt. Gallup was also third round pick making peanuts at that time.

again, the fact that AJ Brown has very little guaranteed salary in 2025 and 2026, he’s going to likely ask for an extension next off-season or more money. Smith needs a new deal  i don’t see the eagles forking out a new deal for aj and a new deal for smith then just using 22nd overall for their 3rd wr for 3-4 years. 

 

8 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

Ravens last year - Zay Flowers 1st round,  Bateman 1st round,  OBJ $15 Million or so

last year,  Brown and Smith played too many snaps and got hurt at the end of the year.   One good way to prevent that from happening, and to work toward Brown and Smith healthy for the playoffs, is to have a really good first round backup come in and take snaps from Brown and Smith and let them rest.  

We can't say that Thomas will be great, there are first round misses on WR,  but he should be an upgrade over Quez/Oz,  and should get snaps and let Brown and Smith rest.  As a general weapon I'd rather have Parris Campbell out there, I think.   It could turn out that Thomas added to Brown and Smith - a good version of Quez who can catch those intercepted balls and turn them into TDs - really cranks the offense up.   The 4th best WR would improve the Eagles  There is a spot for another WR. 

The same reasoning is applied to CB,  where the need is greater.  The roster can use an additional really good player at CB,  immediately.  Many mocks send Cooper DeJean or Nate Wiggins to the Eagles at 22.   Adding great player to the defense at CB should be beneficial in 2024,  same is true with WR. 

And OBJ is not there anymore. He was only there for one season. And Bateman has been a bust cause he can’t stay healthy nor very productive when he does play. So they had to draft a wide receiver because Bateman can’t stay on the field and obj wasn’t on a long term contract. 

21 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

And OBJ is not there anymore. He was only there for one season. And Bateman has been a bust cause he can’t stay healthy nor very productive when he does play. So they had to draft a wide receiver because Bateman can’t stay on the field and obj is gone. 

I'm just saying the Ravens did that.

So it's not rare for teams to do that.

There is a need for an upgrade at backup WR.   1st round is pricy,  but there would be rewards.   I like Luke McCaffrey but not in the first round,  he's currently 5th round,  MDD. 
If they got Legette in the 2nd,  that could be seen as a AJ Brown replace.  Someone with route running ability,  if expensive,  could be seen as Smith replace.   Giving 2 wrs about $20 M a year for a long amount of time seems like an area that could be down, by adding top wrs periodically.

No one played their top 2 wrs as much as the Eagles did.

That is not a good thing.

Add another good WR (they already did in Parris Campbell, but there's room for another).  Brown and Smith can rest.  The offense could be more potent with a big and fast deep threat.

4 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

I'm just saying the Ravens did that.

So it's not rare for teams to do that.

There is a need for an upgrade at backup WR.   1st round is pricy,  but there would be rewards.   I like Luke McCaffrey but not in the first round,  he's currently 5th round,  MDD. 
If they got Legette in the 2nd,  that could be seen as a AJ Brown replace.  Someone with route running ability,  if expensive,  could be seen as Smith replace.   Giving 2 wrs about $20 M a year for a long amount of time seems like an area that could be down, by adding top wrs periodically.

No one played their top 2 wrs as much as the Eagles did.

That is not a good thing.

Add another good WR (they already did in Parris Campbell, but there's room for another).  Brown and Smith can rest.  The offense could be more potent with a big and fast deep threat.

The ravens only did it because OBJ was not committed to them long-term. He was also older at 31 and hadn’t played in a year so they had no clue what he was or would be long term. Agholor also wasn’t committed to them at that point past 2023. Bateman was a Fing bust. The ravens took a wide receiver in the first round because long-term they had next to nothing at the position that was proven or going to be there long term. The ravens didn’t have aj brown and smith. Not giving both of them massive extensions. 

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

The ravens only did it because OBJ was not committed to them long-term. He was also older at 31 and hadn’t played in a year so they had no clue what he was or would be long term. Agholor also wasn’t committed to them at that point past 2023. Bateman was a Fing bust. The ravens took a wide receiver in the first round because long-term they had next to nothing at the position that was proven or going to be there long term. The ravens didn’t have aj brown and smith. Not giving both of them massive extensions. 

but they did that, and other teams do that for reasons.

I don't know that the Eagles are giving Brown and Smith massive extensions.   Drafting Thomas might allow the Eagles not to give on or the other $20 M a year.

If a team has 4 great WRs,  you might not know it because the stats for all 4 would be lower than if only 2 WRs got targets.

What it seems that people are arguing with the WRs is that 1) anything that takes snaps and targets away from Smith and Brown is bad and 2) Smith and Brown must be signed for as much as possible and as long as possible.     I don't see it that way. 

Except for CB, where a really good one might stand out in a positive way, have a strong positive impact,  WR is a spot where a really good WR can be useful and helpful to the offense.   Eagles have 2 good WR,  they have 2 good CBs.   Eagles have 3 good WR,  they have 2 good CBs.    Having 3 very good wrs might be what gets the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory,  adding that little bit extra.   Of course if the secondary is bad, that might be worse. 

42 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

Someone with route running ability,  if expensive,  could be seen as Smith replace. 

Smith isn’t going anywhere

1 hour ago, Random Reglar said:

but they did that, and other teams do that for reasons.

I don't know that the Eagles are giving Brown and Smith massive extensions.   Drafting Thomas might allow the Eagles not to give on or the other $20 M a year.

If a team has 4 great WRs,  you might not know it because the stats for all 4 would be lower than if only 2 WRs got targets.

What it seems that people are arguing with the WRs is that 1) anything that takes snaps and targets away from Smith and Brown is bad and 2) Smith and Brown must be signed for as much as possible and as long as possible.     I don't see it that way. 

Except for CB, where a really good one might stand out in a positive way, have a strong positive impact,  WR is a spot where a really good WR can be useful and helpful to the offense.   Eagles have 2 good WR,  they have 2 good CBs.   Eagles have 3 good WR,  they have 2 good CBs.    Having 3 very good wrs might be what gets the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory,  adding that little bit extra.   Of course if the secondary is bad, that might be worse. 

The ravens drafting zay flowers was an immediate need for a starter/major contributor and long term need. Obj was 31 and hadn’t played in a year. It was a gamble that didn’t pay off. Bateman was a bust and not counted on. Agholor isn’t a starter. So their situation is nothing like the Fing eagles. They had an immediate need as well as long term JFC

when you keep saying, "but they did it” it was cause they had no reliable immediate wr nor long term options. So it made sense to Fing draft a wr in the first round. 

6 hours ago, TEW said:

Our OC used 3 WR sets almost 80% of the time last year. There are plenty of reps. Quez, Julio and Zacchaeus had 60 targets between them last year. So getting a third WR 50 targets by simply using a single third WR rather than a platoon is easily achievable without taking anything away from Brown, Smith or Goedert. Of course, you can also pull a few targets away from each of them to juice those numbers up to 70+. So, no, reps and targets is not a problem in the slightest and Brown or Smith do not need any significant number of fewer targets. And this is without accounting for injuries.

Another team with 3 top end receivers? The Seahawks had Metcalf, Lockett and Smith. They all had 90+ targets. The Texans have Diggs, Collins and Dell. The Rams have Kupp, Nacua and Atwell and they all had 65+ targets. This idea that you can’t throw to 3 receivers just isn’t true.

Maybe we would let Brown or Smith go, but it isn’t a necessity. These are individual situations. You would have the rookie on a cost controlled deal. There is absolutely no imperative to jettison Brown or Smith. You could elect to jettison one or the other or both to free up money because you think the opportunity cost is better to spend it elsewhere, but there’s no reason you must do so.

I prefer 3 wr sets and famously despite 12 personnel.  I’m also on board for investing and getting a high end 3rd wr and agree with your target rationale (although I’m intrigued by Parris Campbell).

Not to rile everyone up with a separate issue, but your target volume logic leaves out one factor….Jalen Hurts.

He still hasn’t really proven to be a reliable high volume passer.  He seems to have quite a few of those 20 pass attempt for 130 yards with lots of tush pushes, rushing yards, yards from backs (soon to be Barkley).  I don’t know that big targets to 3 WRs is something he’s going to be doing a lot or doing that well.

5 hours ago, Random Reglar said:

last year,  Brown and Smith played too many snaps and got hurt at the end of the year.  

WRs don't go by snap counts.   They were misused.   Big difference.   DeVonta Smith should not be a lead blocker at the POA... ever.  And that's why he got banged up.

8 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

Who has the Jonah Elliss and Jeremiah Trotter workout numbers?

Elliss was yesterday.  Trotter was today. 

 

Happy BeastDay to those who celebrate. 

30 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Happy BeastDay to those who celebrate. 

What is that?

The point on DTs is an interesting vs the need to trade up for a OT in a strong class.  It could be that players that we assume will be a trade up will drop - happens every year.  The mock consensus is in, and within 5 or 10 picks, teams end up making them irrelevant.

Some well connected are correct, but overall, most are just time filling media points.

56 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Happy BeastDay to those who celebrate. 

It's sooooo good.

29 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

What is that?

Dane Brugler’s draft guide was released today. It’s called The Beast. 

26 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

The point on DTs is an interesting vs the need to trade up for a OT in a strong class.  It could be that players that we assume will be a trade up will drop - happens every year.  The mock consensus is in, and within 5 or 10 picks, teams end up making them irrelevant.

Some well connected are correct, but overall, most are just time filling media points.

I think there’s a good chance Mims and/or Guyton will still be on the board at #22; it just depends how the Eagles rank the OL players.  I think both look good, but my opinion means nothing.  Picking a player who can be great by using picks #22 and 53 > picking a good player just sticking at 22, IMO.

Is that draft guide free for everyone? As it's on the Atheltic I assumed it was behind a paywall but I managed to download and get access to the file with the password....

1 minute ago, Alphagrand said:

I think there’s a good chance Mims and/or Guyton will still be on the board at #22; it just depends how the Eagles rank the OL players.  I think both look good, but my opinion means nothing.  Picking a player who can be great by using picks #22 and 53 > picking a good player just sticking at 22, IMO.

Absolutely.  We don't know the team rankings vs  the draftnik ones. My feeling would be some of the OTs in the top 15 will fall a lot further than any of us would assume, and certainly, there is a debate about having 2 x good players is more beneficial about 1 great one, especially in such a crapshoot environment.

We know that teams value WRs in a different way, the QB always going in top 5 thing hasn't worked out for some teams. Lots of imponderables out there

 

25 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

Is that draft guide free for everyone? As it's on the Atheltic I assumed it was behind a paywall but I managed to download and get access to the file with the password....

Yep. Behind a paywall. 

 

Confirmed.