Holy moly, that is big news for a variety of reasons. I suspect Watson will be next.

Please let Bryce Young be the QB when we play them. Watson too.

6 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Holy moly, that is big news for a variety of reasons. I suspect Watson will be next.

It's kind of good because not every prospect should be thrown in. He may just need to sit and learn

Monday 6 hours to Kickoff Predictions Update

78 predictions recorded ... with 76 for an Eagles win and 2 for an Eagles loss.  The average predicted score continues to be Eagles 33 Falcons 18.

As always, please tag your prediction post with @mattwill that way I will be sure to see/record it.  Score predictions can also have an optional "Bonus Pick" tiebreaker prediction.  I will be taking predictions right up until Kickoff.

A list of the 78 predictions is presented below, sorted alphabetically by the name of the predictor.  If you don't see your name there, then I haven't yet recorded a prediction for you.

58 minutes ago, austinfan said:

This also applies to Daniels and some other young QBs.

HCs feeling the pressure to win now are playing these young QBs too early, Eagles handled Hurts right, let them set and get them into games at the end of the season so they get a taste of the pro game but aren't over their heads.

And don't fall into the temptation of winning games by using them as "running QBs."  Teach them how to be pocket QBs first, read defenses, THEN add QB runs, etc. once they have the basics down. They'll do plenty of running for their lives their first couple years in the league. I think that has been a mistake with Hurts that hopefully Moore can rectify, get him to focus more on pocket passing and run fewer RO and QB runs.

Though unless a true franchise QB is available, I'd trade down, built my OL and go with a scrub, then once an offensive structure is in place, THEN draft my young QB.

Putting a young QB behind a below average OL is a recipe for disaster.

Most coaches/GMs don't have the luxury of time to keep a top QB pick on the bench, go 5-12, and then trot them out next season. Eberflus doesn't have that in Chicago, the Giants should have drafted a QB this year but Schoen can't bite the bullet on Jones and the deal they gave him so he'll probably go down with the ship. Kraft will be patient with Mayo in NE so they can afford to play it right with Maye and build the team around him. I'm sure he'll get some playing time later in the year when they're basically out of contention to get him ready for his first full season next year. 

One of the reasons the Dolphins paid Tua was because he was safe enough from a talent standpoint, could win you 11 games a year, make the playoffs, and that's good enough for a lot of GMs/Coaches who are under the gun. It's hard to start firing people when you're making the playoffs ever year. It's the same thing with Dak and Dallas. They'll always be regular season contenders to win the division with him as QB. 

Most of these teams are selling hope to their fanbase when they take a QB high. Daniels in Washington probably could have done a redshirt year this season, but that doesn't sell any tickets or get anyone excited. I would bet philosophically most coaches would rather have their rookie wait and learn. But again, most don't have the luxury of time. And you have scenarios like Stroud in Houston that are always going to give other teams hope that their QB can work out like he has off the bat. 

Just now, Mike030270 said:

It's kind of good because not every prospect should be thrown in. He may just need to sit and learn

Yeah, but once you've gone with him, you can't bench him. They just destroyed his confidence (if he had any) and ended his career in Carolina. If you're going to mortgage the future for the top pick, and then start him, you have to roll with him for longer than 2 starts into his 2nd season. The right move was to have him sit behind a vet last year - once you make a high pick the starter, you can't go back and bench him. It's over for him in Carolina.

Carolina is a dumpster fire. 

3 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

It's kind of good because not every prospect should be thrown in. He may just need to sit and learn

And grow 5-6 inches.  Successful short QBs are more outliers than commonplace 

10 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

It's kind of good because not every prospect should be thrown in. He may just need to sit and learn

and if Bryce Young can grow 3 inches and put on 40 pounds, develop a better arm and more speed while he sits ..... even better.

11 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Yeah, but once you've gone with him, you can't bench him. They just destroyed his confidence (if he had any) and ended his career in Carolina. If you're going to mortgage the future for the top pick, and then start him, you have to roll with him for longer than 2 starts into his 2nd season. The right move was to have him sit behind a vet last year - once you make a high pick the starter, you can't go back and bench him. It's over for him in Carolina.

Carolina is a dumpster fire. 

Yep.  Confidence is a fragile thing, even in the world’s highest achievers.  It’s reasonable for a qb to need some time…but it’s so hard to start, step back, and then start again.

Plus…#1 overall pick should generally be of the play immediately variety.  You shouldn’t be tolerating blemishes at #1.  

19 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

and if Bryce Young can grow 3 inches and put on 40 pounds, develop a better arm and more speed while he sits ..... even better.

Young has his flaws, but I don't think it's fair to judge anyone, player or coach, in that dumpster fire that is Carolina. Darnold and Baker have flourished since leaving there. Rhule is doing a great job at Nebraska. Young deserves another shot elsewhere before I completely quit on him. Tepper is a horrible owner. 

 

13 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Young has his flaws, but I don't think it's fair to judge anyone, player or coach, in that dumpster fire that is Carolina. Darnold and Baker have flourished since leaving there. Rhule is doing a great job at Nebraska. Young deserves another shot elsewhere before I completely quit on him. Tepper is a horrible owner. 

I judged him that way before he was ever drafted to CAR, and I'll be gobsmacked if he ever turns out to be anything in the NFL, wherever he goes.

The crowd better be on fire tonight given the Foles retirement.

A shame about Bryce Young. He sucks but it was at least funny to watch a guy jump to attempt a checkdown.

Primetime (and rusty) Kirk Cousins behind a shaky Oline and a so so D, the Eagles should put on a beat down even without Brown.  The interior OL is bad.  Look for Davis, Carter amd Williams to stop Robinson as well as put pressure in the face of Cousins and force some turnovers.

On offense, as long as they shut down Judon they should have no problem with the pass rush of the Falcons.  Jarrett is getting up there but can still be a force in the middle.  Would expect Dickerson, Jergens and Becton to be able to handle them.  Barkley should have a good game.  The Falcons have a good secondary with Simmons, Bates and Terrell.  But should be susceptible over the middle.  As long as they can limit the turnovers, they should be able to dink and dunk their way down the field.

@mattwill Eagles 27 Falcons 13

Bonus:  Hurts gets back to training camp form and doesn't throw an Int

 

So...other than Stroud, we may be at a point where the college game is no longer producing NFL ready QBs.

 

Pretty interesting trend. The league has always been cyclical and we might be seeing the needle move back to rushing attacks. Especially in the red zone where it tightens up and is harder for QBs to make the necessary throws. This also might be a tale on the overall quality of quarterbacks outside of the top tier of guys. 

I think the Falcons purposely try to get Cousins moving a little bit more.  I will be completely shocked if it’s a repeat of last week when they played Pittsburgh.  If he really is that much of a statue right now, there’s no reason not to play Penix.  

Just now, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Pretty interesting trend. The league has always been cyclical and we might be seeing the needle move back to rushing attacks. Especially in the red zone where it tightens up and is harder for QBs to make the necessary throws. This also might be a tale on the overall quality of quarterbacks outside of the top tier of guys. 

See above. I think we are seeing the impacts of the last 4 drafts producing only one quality QB so far. 2021 and 2022 seem to be all busts, and 2023 other than Stroud is looking terrible. Even 2024 is looking weak, but it is obviously early. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are basically top tier QBs now given the complete lack of talent at the position.

12 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Pretty interesting trend. The league has always been cyclical and we might be seeing the needle move back to rushing attacks. Especially in the red zone where it tightens up and is harder for QBs to make the necessary throws. This also might be a tale on the overall quality of quarterbacks outside of the top tier of guys. 

I would say it's because of all the rule changes around tackling. Probably making it harder to slow down and stop running backs once they have momentum 

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

So...other than Stroud, we may be at a point where the college game is no longer producing NFL ready QBs.

 

I think it's also teams overvaluing and overdrafting QBs. It used to be common that you had one or two QBs being drafted in the top 10 in most drafts, but even outside of that, each draft class as a whole might produce a couple decent passers while most were always going to be busts/backups/journeymen. Just this past April, we saw QBs being taken with 6 of the first 12 picks. When that many QBs go that early, it shouldn't be a surprise if 4 or 5 of them end up being disappointments relative to their draft position based on the numbers game alone. You kinda touched on it with the Young situation, but owners are more impatient with coaches, who are in turn going to be more impatient with prospects. Long gone are the days where an Aaron Rodgers (who was the second QB off the board late in the first round) would sit for 3 years before making his first start.

The 2021 QB class is comically terrible. It's hard to believe they are all this bad.

Lawrence (1) -- other than a ~8 game stretch at the end of 2022, he's been terrible. Everyone gave him a pass because of the Urban Meyer debacle his rookie year, but his regression since the end of 2022 has been unreal. Misses open receivers, takes bad sacks, and has lost his last 7 starts. No idea WTF the Jags were thinking with that contract. Oh, and it seems Doug hates him. Doug gonna get fired because Lawrence is trash.

Zach Wilson (2) -- laughably bad with the Jets, but every QB looks bad with that organization. Maybe Darnold gives him some hope, but can't get on the field in Denver. Was arguably the worst QB in the league when he played.

Trey Lance (3) -- At least Wilson got on the field...this guy can't be better than the 3rd QB in Dallas. Even Shanahan couldn't make him a competent QB.

Justin Fields (11) -- Dumped by the Bears for potentially another bust. Doing enough to not lose games for the Steelers, but basically a RB.

Mac Jones (15) -- When you're getting benched for Bailey Zappe...

Has there ever been another class this terrible? 5 1st round QBs and they all bust?

7 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

See above. I think we are seeing the impacts of the last 4 drafts producing only one quality QB so far. 2021 and 2022 seem to be all busts, and 2023 other than Stroud is looking terrible. Even 2024 is looking weak, but it is obviously early. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are basically top tier QBs now given the complete lack of talent at the position.

The college game and even high school has definitely been detrimental and stunting growth for quarterbacks to take the next leap. Stroud is the exception because I don't think his time at OSU necessarily made him pro-ready. But it's a credit to him and Slowik that he's been able to not only adjust but become a top QB. 

Brady even talked about this how he's not really a fan of the QB play we've been seeing the past several years and how guys don't really go through progressions anymore. They're all looking for the "Instagram highlight" play. 

But overall this isn't anything new if you look back on the past ten years or so. It might come down to the fact that playing quarterback in the NFL at a good/elite level is just very hard to do. 

From 2013-2022 there were 30 QBs taken in the first round. I think you can only really put three guys into the "elite" category with Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. And it's probably fair to start questioning Burrow now too. And then you have guys like Lamar, Goff, Kyler, and Herbert who are good players. I won't argue if you want to put Lamar in the elite category with two MVPs. Love seems to be on the right track and I think Trevor Lawrence has been an overall disappointment so far given his expectations and hype coming out. Watson was really good but is cooked now. 

So you're really only looking at a 10-20% hit rate on first round QBs depending on what your criteria for good and elite is and what you consider a franchise QB. 

So it's fair to blame the college game, but overall it's just really hard to hit on these guys and there isn't a sure-fire system to predict it. 

Heading into tonight's game, Jalen Hurts has more passing yards than Herbert, Fields, Caleb...
He has more passing TDs than Goff, Lawrence, Purdy, Stafford, etc.

Passing is challenging in the NFL right now. It's a running game league.

5 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

The college game and even high school has definitely been detrimental and stunting growth for quarterbacks to take the next leap. Stroud is the exception because I don't think his time at OSU necessarily made him pro-ready. But it's a credit to him and Slowik that he's been able to not only adjust but become a top QB. 

Brady even talked about this how he's not really a fan of the QB play we've been seeing the past several years and how guys don't really go through progressions anymore. They're all looking for the "Instagram highlight" play. 

But overall this isn't anything new if you look back on the past ten years or so. It might come down to the fact that playing quarterback in the NFL at a good/elite level is just very hard to do. 

From 2013-2022 there were 30 QBs taken in the first round. I think you can only really put three guys into the "elite" category with Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. And it's probably fair to start questioning Burrow now too. And then you have guys like Lamar, Goff, Kyler, and Herbert who are good players. I won't argue if you want to put Lamar in the elite category with two MVPs. Love seems to be on the right track and I think Trevor Lawrence has been an overall disappointment so far given his expectations and hype coming out. Watson was really good but is cooked now. 

So you're really only looking at a 10-20% hit rate on first round QBs depending on what your criteria for good and elite is and what you consider a franchise QB. 

So it's fair to blame the college game, but overall it's just really hard to hit on these guys and there isn't a sure-fire system to predict it. 

The counter is we are now looking at 4 drafts where only 1 top QB has been produced. Going 0 for 5 in 2021 is almost impossible. 2022 -- OK, there was only one first round QB, but he busted. 2023 had one hit and 2 misses (so far). So 1 out of 8 if we ignore 2024 (Caleb not exactly looking promising). That's a very low hit rate. And we're talking about being even competent, NFL starters.