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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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12 hours ago, mattwill said:

But were they paid $250 million?

/sarcasm

The problem with the argument on how much he is paid is that the Lombardi Trophy isn’t given out for winning the best money management.  

No, its given to the best TEAM, and that generally means having the best talent.   And when one guy is grossly overpaid, that limits the options at the other positions - which weakens the team.    For example, adding Bryce Huff was a HORRIBLE move and one that cost the team the opportunity to add better talent with that money.  If there were people telling us how great Bryce Huff is because of the team's win loss record with him on the roster, I think that they would get some push back.

Obviously that's an extreme example, but when you pay top dollar for a player, you expect a certain level of return on that investment.   If Hurts was paid like Sam Darnold ($10M/year), Geno Smith ($25M/year) or even Baker Mayfield ($33M/year) or was still on his rookie deal, there would (I believe) be more leniency.  But, now that he's getting $51M/year on average... there's a level of expectation that comes with that.   (And yes, I know that puts him CURRENTLY at the 9th most of all QBs across the league.  The fact that other teams dramatically overpay for mediocrity from their QB isn't an excuse for the Eagles to follow suit.  They are supposed to be smarter than that, which is why they didn't give the big extension that Reddick wanted, etc.)

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11 hours ago, Saltpeter said:

Not get a sniff? He's presumably LB4. They play 2 LBs. Both LB2 and LB3 play on all STs units. Path to playing time is not as crazy as you think.

This past week Baun was playing ST (I think that was after the injury to Dean).  Morrow is very likely to be elevated for this week's game.

10 hours ago, mattwill said:

All that ignores the reality that Jerry Jones wins the financial trophy every year.

What are you talking about?  Jerrah just made Dak the most highly paid QB in the NFL.  :roll:  And they lost OL starters because they couldn't afford to resign them... and as a result, their team regressed.  

9 hours ago, mattwill said:

Where are you getting $50 million?  Hurts is only $13,558,800 this year and $21,769,800 in 2025.

The average... in 2029 (the void year) he costs $97M.  Howie is going to have to do some fancy footwork on that.  Which limits how he spreads out future money for the guys who's contract are coming due now.

Apparently the Packers fan who recorded the dude calling his woman a c*nt is a content creator - wore a bodycam to the game.  Set up a gofundme to get into the game - probably antagonized the Eagles fan.  Not condoning what the Eagles fan did, but it would be interesting to see all the footage.  

https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/social-media-detectives-uncovered-sketchy-details-about-green-bay-packers-fan-who-filmed-his-fiancee-getting-verbally-harassed-by-philadelphia-eagles-fan/

8 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The average... in 2029 (the void year) he costs $97M.  Howie is going to have to do some fancy footwork on that.  Which limits how he spreads out future money for the guys who's contract are coming due now.

He'll be traded IMO before then. 

6 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

No, its given to the best TEAM, and that generally means having the best talent.   And when one guy is grossly overpaid, that limits the options at the other positions - which weakens the team.    For example, adding Bryce Huff was a HORRIBLE move and one that cost the team the opportunity to add better talent with that money.  If there were people telling us how great Bryce Huff is because of the team's win loss record with him on the roster, I think that they would get some push back.

Obviously that's an extreme example, but when you pay top dollar for a player, you expect a certain level of return on that investment.   If Hurts was paid like Sam Darnold ($10M/year), Geno Smith ($25M/year) or even Baker Mayfield ($33M/year) or was still on his rookie deal, there would (I believe) be more leniency.  But, now that he's getting $51M/year on average... there's a level of expectation that comes with that.   (And yes, I know that puts him CURRENTLY at the 9th most of all QBs across the league.  The fact that other teams dramatically overpay for mediocrity from their QB isn't an excuse for the Eagles to follow suit.  They are supposed to be smarter than that, which is why they didn't give the big extension that Reddick wanted, etc.)

You're desperately looking for other reasons to criticize  players you're not sold on. Do we have cap space left? Was there a better option available for what we spent on Huff that wanted to come here? Is, or is not, the Eagles' 2024 roster considered one of or the most talented roster in the NFL by most analysts out there? I think the fact that Huff has underperformed his contract to date just shows that money spent does not mean success. Being at or near the cap does not  mean best team possible. 

While I agree that the QB position is overpaid in comparison to other positions (that's a different discussion), that doesn't change the fact that there is a market value for QBs --- especially those labeled as "franchise QBs." As for Hurts, his contract is right in line with his production. It's just that some fans prefer a different style QB with fancier (inflated) passing yards and stats even if it means we win less to get them. 

It's clear as day that the Eagles plan in the RZ is to get in to tush push territory. It makes them incredibly predictable IMO and it limits their offense. I think they use Gainwell so much because they know he won't score and Hurts can sneak it in.

-26% of Kenny Gainwell's 75 carries in 2024 come in the RZ and he has 1 TD compared to 17% of Saquon Barkley's 345 carries are in the RZ and he has 6 TD.

-Jalen Hurts has 86 carries and 29 RZ rushing TDs over the last 2 years  compared to 25 passing TDs.

-Eagles RBs combined have 143 carries and 14 TDs.

-Jalen Hurts has nearly identical passing stats over the last 2 years- 32 of 54 for 224 yards and 13 TDs in 2023 and  33 of 53 for 216 yards  and 12 TDs in 2024.

-86 RZ carries for Hurts compared to 109 pass attempts.

-Sidenote, people often compare Hurts to Josh Allen. Same timeframe, Allen has 65 carries for 25 TDs and completed 79 of 140 pass for 38 TDs so 20 less carries, 30 more passes and 13 more passing TDs. 

-Let's add Lamar Jackson. 43 of 64 for 17 TD in 2023 and an ABUSURD 44 of 64 for 31 TD in 2024. He had 32 carries for 5 TD in 2023 and 18 carries for 3 TD in 2024. Lamar Jackson is on another level. 

 

RZ receiving the last 2 years: 

A.J. Brown- (2024) 7 catches for 51 yards 4 TDs  (2023) 10 catches for 77 yards 4 TDs

DeVonta Smith- (2024) 8 catches for 38 yards 3 TDs (2023) 4 catches for 27 yards 3TDs

Saquon Barkley- (2024) 9 catches for 69 yards- 2 TD

Dallas Goedert- (2024) 5 catches for 43 yards- 2 TDS (2023) 6 catches for 46 yards 3 TDs

D'Andre Swift- (2023) 5 catches for 21 yards- 1 TD

Kenny Gainwell- (2024) 4 catches for 35 yards

Julio Jones- (2023) 3 catches for 28 yards- 2 TDs

Quez Watkins- (2023) 2 catches for 4 yards

Jack Stoll- (2023) 1 catch for 14 yards

Johnny Wilson- (2024) 1 catch for 5 yards-1 TD

Grant Calcaterra- (2024) 1 catch for 4 yards-1 TD (2023) 1 catch for 13 yards

Parris Campbell- (2024) 1 catch for 1 yard- 1 TD

Britain Covey- (2024) 2 catches for 5 yards 

 

RZ Rushing the last 2 years:

Saquon Barkley- 61 carries for 212 yards-6 TDs

Jalen Hurts- (2024) 49 carries for 127 yards- 14 TD (2023) 37 carries for 75 yards and 15 TD 

D'Andre Swift- (2023) 38 carries for 123 yards- 5 TD

Kenny Gainwell- (2024) 20 carries for 90 yards-1 TD (2023) 24 carries for 56 yards 2 TD

Kenny Pickett- (2024) 2 carries for 1 yard- 1 TD

 

 

18 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The average... in 2029 (the void year) he costs $97M.  Howie is going to have to do some fancy footwork on that.  Which limits how he spreads out future money for the guys who's contract are coming due now.

Let me get this, we might not be able to afford a 3yr/$15MperYr contract for Baun because Jalen’s cap number skyrockets moving forward? But the cap isn’t real anyway.

25 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

What are you talking about?  Jerrah just made Dak the most highly paid QB in the NFL.  :roll:  And they lost OL starters because they couldn't afford to resign them... and as a result, their team regressed.  

He means the Cowboys are the most valuable sports franchise in the states.

19 minutes ago, mikemack8 said:

Apparently the Packers fan who recorded the dude calling his woman a c*nt is a content creator - wore a bodycam to the game.  Set up a gofundme to get into the game - probably antagonized the Eagles fan.  Not condoning what the Eagles fan did, but it would be interesting to see all the footage.  

https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/social-media-detectives-uncovered-sketchy-details-about-green-bay-packers-fan-who-filmed-his-fiancee-getting-verbally-harassed-by-philadelphia-eagles-fan/

If your guess is accurate, why is the Eagles fan calling his fiance the c--- rather than going after the antagonist?

Hurts missed a few games, didn’t do anything to lose the game and helped with 2 tds. This just isn’t the hill to die on. It wasn’t bad enough to warrant this crap. Was it good? No but it wasn’t Darnold or Mayfield fing up two snaps in a row to lose a game by himself. He needs to step up this week, yes.

10 hours ago, brkmsn said:

So did Sudfeld. 

no he didn’t…being on a SB winning team and winning a SB are 2 completely different things.

I get what you’re trying to say and there is a lot of over the top takes and criticism of Hurts right now.  I don’t see the sky falling yet though personally…we will see what happens this weekend.  I don’t know if the D is capable of carrying the load again vs the Rams. He needs to step up to at least being average.

4 minutes ago, RLC said:

He'll be traded IMO before then. 

I didn't think that would help much.  The way his contract is structured, its almost all 'prorated bonus' money - which would sound like cash already paid out.  Maybe not though, since its in the "OPTION" heading and not strictly the "Signing Bonus" category.   Screenshot2025-01-15at8_32_13AM.thumb.png.af5b77ca72dcb80822bff5d1fc63fb2d.png

Looking at this closer, Howie might truly be a genius.  If these bonuses can be shipped off with Hurts... or they aren't all guaranteed bonuses, then the Hurts contract piece may not actually be an argument against him.   @mattwill

 

The weird part I can't figure out is the 2025 cap figure.   They show it to be $21.7M... BUT, the 2025 'guaranteed SALARY' is listed as $42M.  So, that's gotta be spread out somehow, but I don't see how they are accounting for that.   How the "Guaranteed" salary figures into this according to Spotrac is confusing.  The figures don't align to what overthecap included.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/1865/breaking-down-jalen-hurts-255m-extension

image.thumb.png.1b0bd9cf5d897662530d5ed01d8a3ab6.png

 

I guess the long and the short of it is this... none of us actually knows how Hurts' contract is structured or how it really works.  But, looking at it... Howie stayed up a few nights/weeks to convolute this one to the point of utter confusion and tedium for the league office.   And he's likely got some weird loopholes worked in where its actually not as limiting as it appeared on first blush.   :blush:    I give up my delusions of ever understanding anything about the cap.

8 minutes ago, Waiting4Someday said:

Let me get this, we might not be able to afford a 3yr/$15MperYr contract for Baun because Jalen’s cap number skyrockets moving forward? But the cap isn’t real anyway.

I am starting to come around to that line of thinking after taking a slightly deeper dive into Hurts' contract.   Its bizarre and the numbers don't add up in any way that I can make heads or tails of. 

So, I hereby declare my ignorance and throw myself on the mercy of the blog court for actually commenting on it.    I am certain now that I don't have a clue what I am talking about.  :lol:

10 hours ago, mattwill said:

Where are you getting $50 million?  Hurts is only $13,558,800 this year and $21,769,800 in 2025.

5 yr/250m QB…beer math without needing to go to OTC and play the technical game of ‘well his salary is actually’.  He’s $50m AAW

1 minute ago, Wentz_Era said:

no he didn’t…being on a SB winning team and winning a SB are 2 completely different things.

I get what you’re trying to say and there is a lot of over the top takes and criticism of Hurts right now.  I don’t see the sky falling yet though personally…we will see what happens this weekend.  I don’t know if the D is capable of carrying the load again vs the Rams. He needs to step up to at least being average.

We were being "silly" obviously. 

33 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

No, its given to the best TEAM, and that generally means having the best talent.   And when one guy is grossly overpaid, that limits the options at the other positions - which weakens the team.    For example, adding Bryce Huff was a HORRIBLE move and one that cost the team the opportunity to add better talent with that money.  If there were people telling us how great Bryce Huff is because of the team's win loss record with him on the roster, I think that they would get some push back.

Obviously that's an extreme example, but when you pay top dollar for a player, you expect a certain level of return on that investment.   If Hurts was paid like Sam Darnold ($10M/year), Geno Smith ($25M/year) or even Baker Mayfield ($33M/year) or was still on his rookie deal, there would (I believe) be more leniency.  But, now that he's getting $51M/year on average... there's a level of expectation that comes with that.   (And yes, I know that puts him CURRENTLY at the 9th most of all QBs across the league.  The fact that other teams dramatically overpay for mediocrity from their QB isn't an excuse for the Eagles to follow suit.  They are supposed to be smarter than that, which is why they didn't give the big extension that Reddick wanted, etc.)

So, for this year and the next four he’s being paid a fraction of that $51M. You slipped in "on average” but that means nothing for the better part of five years. His contract does not obviate us keeping pretty much anybody. As for Reddick, it’s pretty clear he’s shot his bolt. Huff has been a bust, for sure, but many here were calling Smith a bust not long ago. They may rehabilitate him or dump him. We’ll see.

4 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

If your guess is accurate, why is the Eagles fan calling his fiance the c--- rather than going after the antagonist?

I think he's suggesting that the content creator set up the scenario, but that the fiance might have been the instigator of the incident.   Who knows?   What we see posted in videos is almost never 'the whole story'... so coming to conclusions of an interaction based on a small clip of an interaction is nearly impossible.  It lacks the context.  

6 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I didn't think that would help much.  The way his contract is structured, its almost all 'prorated bonus' money - which would sound like cash already paid out.  Maybe not though, since its in the "OPTION" heading and not strictly the "Signing Bonus" category.   Screenshot2025-01-15at8_32_13AM.thumb.png.af5b77ca72dcb80822bff5d1fc63fb2d.png

Looking at this closer, Howie might truly be a genius.  If these bonuses can be shipped off with Hurts... or they aren't all guaranteed bonuses, then the Hurts contract piece may not actually be an argument against him.   @mattwill

 

The weird part I can't figure out is the 2025 cap figure.   They show it to be $21.7M... BUT, the 2025 'guaranteed SALARY' is listed as $42M.  So, that's gotta be spread out somehow, but I don't see how they are accounting for that.   How the "Guaranteed" salary figures into this according to Spotrac is confusing.  The figures don't align to what overthecap included.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/1865/breaking-down-jalen-hurts-255m-extension

image.thumb.png.1b0bd9cf5d897662530d5ed01d8a3ab6.png

 

I guess the long and the short of it is this... none of us actually knows how Hurts' contract is structured or how it really works.  But, looking at it... Howie stayed up a few nights/weeks to convolute this one to the point of utter confusion and tedium for the league office.   And he's likely got some weird loopholes worked in where its actually not as limiting as it appeared on first blush.   :blush:    I give up my delusions of ever understanding anything about the cap.

A large portion of Hurts’ contract includes injury insurance. How much is unclear but it subtracts from the cap hit if he gets injured and is classified as a refund to the player.

I wish Sam Lynch was here to break it down.

Just now, just relax said:

So, for this year and the next four he’s being paid a fraction of that $51M. You slipped in "on average” but that means nothing for the better part of five years. His contract does not obviate us keeping pretty much anybody. As for Reddick, it’s pretty clear he’s shot his bolt. Huff has been a bust, for sure, but many here were calling Smith a bust not long ago. They may rehabilitate him or dump him. We’ll see.

See my message above.   I recanted my assertions on Hurts' contract.

 

As for Smith... he was 'trending' towards bust if his 2024 campaign matched his 2023 campaign.  It did not, and as is often the case, he improved from year 1 to year 2.  We can only hope that growth continues.  But, speaking regarding contracts, Smith is on a rookie deal, and so its not a limiting factor.   Huff is, not just because of the number involved with him being greater, but they didn't pursue other options because they pursued him... and once they landed him, they ceased the pursuit of anyone else in that role.  Sadly, he's been perhaps the worst Free agent signing in Philadelphia sports history... keeping company with the likes of Danny Tartabull, Lance Parrish, maybe toss in a Tony Kukoc.

11 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

If your guess is accurate, why is the Eagles fan calling his fiance the c--- rather than going after the antagonist?

Maybe she's in on it?  I don't know.  Again, I'm not condoning the guy's actions, but it's also pretty scummy to purposely go to other team's stadiums with the intention of antagonizing fans for content and then crying foul when you get a negative response.

2 minutes ago, just relax said:

A large portion of Hurts’ contract includes injury insurance. How much is unclear but it subtracts from the cap hit if he gets injured and is classified as a refund to the player.

I wish Sam Lynch was here to break it down.

I wonder if that works on a game by game basis... and might explain why the Eagles slow walked Hurts' coming out of concussion protocol until the week leading up to the playoff game, rather than the Giants game.  If he was still in the protocol, they could recoup that money and wouldn't have 2/17 (Dallas week and Giants week) of his salary this year count against the cap.  🤔

 

Yes, I'd love to see a breakdown of his contract... but I'm guessing what's really in there is far more nuanced than what was released to the public.  Howie truly is a cap wizard and perhaps the cap is much more illusion than reality for the Eagles.  

35 minutes ago, mikemack8 said:

Apparently the Packers fan who recorded the dude calling his woman a c*nt is a content creator - wore a bodycam to the game.  Set up a gofundme to get into the game - probably antagonized the Eagles fan.  Not condoning what the Eagles fan did, but it would be interesting to see all the footage.  

https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/social-media-detectives-uncovered-sketchy-details-about-green-bay-packers-fan-who-filmed-his-fiancee-getting-verbally-harassed-by-philadelphia-eagles-fan/

With devastation happening on both coasts of our country, instead of donating to a good cause, let's donate to a YouTuber so he can go to a football game. Man, social media is great!

I wonder if this guy was the Packers fan who was in here talking trash, learning what buttons to push before the game! 

3 minutes ago, mikemack8 said:

Maybe she's in on it?  I don't know.  Again, I'm not condoning the guy's actions, but it's also pretty scummy to purposely go to other team's stadiums with the intention of antagonizing fans for content and then crying foul when you get a negative response.

But that's what gets the clicks... If people stop feeding into this stuff, it would go away.  But, as long as it is profitable, it will exist.  Remember that the only sequel that doesn't turn a profit is the last one.  

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