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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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2 hours ago, bpac55 said:

It's clear as day that the Eagles plan in the RZ is to get in to tush push territory. It makes them incredibly predictable IMO and it limits their offense. I think they use Gainwell so much because they know he won't score and Hurts can sneak it in.

I didn't quote your entire post (which was very good, btw); for whatever the Eagles methodology is in the red zone, they are 17th in TD% at 55.56.  Kind of average. 

The good news?  The Rams are 25th

The bad news?  The top 3 teams are BAL (1), DET (2), BUF (3).  Washington is 8th.  

Kansas City ranks 22nd, so maybe they're our preferred opponent as long as Fangio can shut down those two easy TDs they got against Slay and Maddox last SB.

8 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

 

Go ahead, recreate that picture, big Trot and little Trot.  

8 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Hey! There's missed field goals too!

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1 minute ago, greendestiny27 said:

Howie can simply restructure that 

Sure - if you want to extend Hurts.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

No, its given to the best TEAM, and that generally means having the best talent.   And when one guy is grossly overpaid, that limits the options at the other positions - which weakens the team.    For example, adding Bryce Huff was a HORRIBLE move and one that cost the team the opportunity to add better talent with that money.  If there were people telling us how great Bryce Huff is because of the team's win loss record with him on the roster, I think that they would get some push back.

Obviously that's an extreme example, but when you pay top dollar for a player, you expect a certain level of return on that investment.   If Hurts was paid like Sam Darnold ($10M/year), Geno Smith ($25M/year) or even Baker Mayfield ($33M/year) or was still on his rookie deal, there would (I believe) be more leniency.  But, now that he's getting $51M/year on average... there's a level of expectation that comes with that.   (And yes, I know that puts him CURRENTLY at the 9th most of all QBs across the league.  The fact that other teams dramatically overpay for mediocrity from their QB isn't an excuse for the Eagles to follow suit.  They are supposed to be smarter than that, which is why they didn't give the big extension that Reddick wanted, etc.)

I agree with every point you have made, but those points focus on the future years much more than they focus on either the present year or next year which carry a Cap hit of $13,558,800 and $21,769,800 respectively.  Those numbers fit nicely into your examples.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

What are you talking about?  Jerrah just made Dak the most highly paid QB in the NFL.  :roll:  And they lost OL starters because they couldn't afford to resign them... and as a result, their team regressed.  

And the amount of money Jerry took to the bank was humongous.  He is the best businessman in the NFL by a mile.  He is minting money much faster and much more than any other NFL owner.

25 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

How is the first half sack rate 37th in the league consisting of only 32 teams?

I’m guessing it’s 37th percentile 🤷

6 minutes ago, greendestiny27 said:

Howie can simply restructure that 

Or he can trade or cut Hurts prior to some of those Option Bonuses coming due.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The average... in 2029 (the void year) he costs $97M.  Howie is going to have to do some fancy footwork on that.  Which limits how he spreads out future money for the guys whose contract are coming due now.

A huge portion of those dollars are avoidable simply by trading or cutting Hurts before the huge Option Bonuses come due.

4 minutes ago, mattwill said:

I agree with every point you have made, but those points focus on the future years much more than they focus on either the present year or next year which carry a Cap hit of $13,558,800 and $21,769,800 respectively.  Those numbers fit nicely into your examples.

5.2% of the cap this year

7.8% in 2025

As it stands right now, the big cap hits don't start until 2029.  Having said that, the dead money is high so cutting him would be a major hit.

47 minutes ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

My one neat trick to avoid getting banned from Sports stadiums for repeatedly calling someone a really bad word and then effectively calling their boyfriend out as a **** for not fighting me about it on camera is to not repeatedly call people bad words.

My system is 100% effective.

Is it more likely the Packers fan went specifically to a game to provoke a guy into doing this, or that he only started filming because this guy had been calling his missus a bad word and he wanted something on record in case it got uglier? If the Eagles fan had been done dirty by the film there'd have been other nearby fans sticking their head above the parapet leaping to his defense about how big a dbag the Packer fan was just prior to the footage.

It is 100% more likely he specifically went to the game to provoke a reaction.

They're social media people. It’s what they do for clicks.

That doesn’t justify what the Eagle fan said at all, but let’s not be naive here — every idiot with a phone these days wants to have something go viral on social media, and that goes twice as much for people who are already making content for money.

WE DID IT!!!

 

2 hours ago, Freshmilk said:

He means the Cowboys are the most valuable sports franchise in the states.

And adding value at the highest rate year after year after year.  That is what a business is all about … building value.

14 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

Getting doxed and fired is extreme but that's apparently the world we live in now

"Does that not feel like a guy who’s  fishing for content a little bit and got one dumb Eagles fan to eat the trash?"

I've been saying that since it broke. You don't wear a camera unless you are looking for content for clicks. That is why he said I got it.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I didn't think that would help much.

 

2 hours ago, RLC said:

He'll be traded IMO before then. 

 

Screenshot2025-01-15at16_57_15.thumb.png.5f21158d4a13c438ee8e758abee81d0c.png

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

WE DID IT!!!

 

The Packers played zone defense which means Jalen shouldn't be expected to throw the ball into windows.  He's submitted to conservative play and being the second banana behind the running game, so naturally he's above criticism.  Shame on you.

4 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

5.2% of the cap this year

7.8% in 2025

As it stands right now, the big cap hits don't start until 2029.  Having said that, the dead money is high so cutting him would be a major hit.

The dead cap isn’t really that high according to Spotrac.  Ride Hurts through the end of the 2025 season, extend McKee at a very reasonable second contract value and cut ties with Hurts, ideally through a trade.

IMG_8784.jpeg

11 minutes ago, RLC said:

They didn't. They IR'ed an injured player. They just didn't bring him back when healthy. 

In Bradberry's case, he only had $20M guaranteed in his deal. Who knows how much of that they insured in 2024. I'd be willing to bet he had more insured in 2023 when they actually had plans for him than they do in 2024. 

The Eagles do this proactively for relief, agreed. But at what point in the last 20 years did we all just wake up one day to a massive cap adjustment? When has there ever been $10M or more of unexpected cap space? You can say OTC and Spotrac aren't privy to all the inner details but the NFLPA releases their cap figures as well, which are generally in line with Spotrac or OTC give or take minor differences, and they have access to all this insurance information since it has to be written in player contracts. 

If the Eagles were manipulating the cap that much with this strategy over the last 20 years they wouldn't have just flown under the radar as the article states. It would be known and out there and obvious. 

Just now, LeanMeanGM said:

They didn't. They IR'ed an injured player. They just didn't bring him back when healthy. 

In Bradberry's case, he only had $20M guaranteed in his deal. Who knows how much of that they insured in 2024. I'd be willing to bet he had more insured in 2023 when they actually had plans for him than they do in 2024. 

The Eagles do this proactively for relief, agreed. But at what point in the last 20 years did we all just wake up one day to a massive cap adjustment? When has there ever been $10M or more of unexpected cap space? You can say OTC and Spotrac aren't privy to all the inner details but the NFLPA releases their cap figures as well, which are generally in line with Spotrac or OTC give or take minor differences, and they have access to all this insurance information since it has to be written in player contracts. 

If the Eagles were manipulating the cap that much with this strategy over the last 20 years they wouldn't have just flown under the radar as the article states. It would be known and out there and obvious. 

I wonder if Deshaun Watson is insured - he might never get off IR.

4 minutes ago, mattwill said:

The dead cap isn’t really that high according to Spotrac.  Ride Hurts through the end of the 2025 season, extend McKee at a very reasonable second contract value and cut ties with Hurts, ideally through a trade.

IMG_8784.jpeg

2025 pre June cut is $107M and post June 1 is $75M and even the $53M seems very high to me.  Post June 1 2026 is an option yes.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I didn't think that would help much.  The way his contract is structured, its almost all 'prorated bonus' money - which would sound like cash already paid out.  Maybe not though, since its in the "OPTION" heading and not strictly the "Signing Bonus" category.   Screenshot2025-01-15at8_32_13AM.thumb.png.af5b77ca72dcb80822bff5d1fc63fb2d.png

Looking at this closer, Howie might truly be a genius.  If these bonuses can be shipped off with Hurts... or they aren't all guaranteed bonuses, then the Hurts contract piece may not actually be an argument against him.   @mattwill

 

The weird part I can't figure out is the 2025 cap figure.   They show it to be $21.7M... BUT, the 2025 'guaranteed SALARY' is listed as $42M.  So, that's gotta be spread out somehow, but I don't see how they are accounting for that.   How the "Guaranteed" salary figures into this according to Spotrac is confusing.  The figures don't align to what overthecap included.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/1865/breaking-down-jalen-hurts-255m-extension

image.thumb.png.1b0bd9cf5d897662530d5ed01d8a3ab6.png

 

I guess the long and the short of it is this... none of us actually knows how Hurts' contract is structured or how it really works.  But, looking at it... Howie stayed up a few nights/weeks to convolute this one to the point of utter confusion and tedium for the league office.   And he's likely got some weird loopholes worked in where its actually not as limiting as it appeared on first blush.   :blush:    I give up my delusions of ever understanding anything about the cap.

Good and thoughtful post as is your usual standard.  On the Spotrac site if you click on the scissors ✂️ icon it shows you what the "out” consequences are.  Those future Option Bonuses are where the Average Annual Value comes from and they can be avoided.

IMG_8784.jpeg

44 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

How is the first half sack rate 37th in the league consisting of only 32 teams?

32 teams yes but not every team started the same QB every game of the year.  Probably 40-50 QB's played throughout the year.

 No idea if this is factual just my guess.

BTW it is in conversations like this one we are all having where we really miss @shlynch.

10 minutes ago, Waiting4Someday said:

The Packers played zone defense which means Jalen shouldn't be expected to throw the ball into windows.  He's submitted to conservative play and being the second banana behind the running game, so naturally he's above criticism.  Shame on you.

Hey i didn’t write the story. I just read them 

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