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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Really curious how Dan Campbell does once Johnson goes. 

This triggered in my head the reality that, unlike Reid or McVey or Shanahan, there really isn't a notable Belichick coaching tree.  

Bill O'Brien, Brian Flores, Brian Daboll, Eric Mangini, Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia, Joe Judge.  Meh.

Nick Saban was with him Cleveland.  That's it.

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6 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Brent Celek is so underappreciated for his receiving abilities.  He became a great blocker, but he was actually a far better receiving threat than most people remember.

He had nearly 1000 yards in 2009 and one of the greatest receptions for a TE in Eagles' history in the epic comeback versus the Giants.   When Ertz came in with Chip's love of all players from the PAC-10, Celek was quickly relegated to TE2 status, but when needed, he was still there as a receiver.  He was a much more complete TE to Ertz.  He really was what most people think Goedert is or should be... and more durable.

I agree on Celek being under appreciated. He was definitely a complete TE. Goedert is definitely the better athlete though. Celek had fewer drops and was more durable. 

2 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

I actually think Campbell is less of a candidate. He’s doing pretty much what he did in 2023, just with a better roster. Sirianni won’t win but I’d say what he’s doing in 2024 after 2023 should get more acclaim.

Jim Harbaugh, KOC, McDermott I think are the big candidates to me. Buffalo lost a lot of talent this offseason and somehow became a better team

I thinks McDermott would get more love (should) but Josh Allen is so good that i think people hold that against him as he has a top 3 Qb so expected to always be good. Similar with Reid with mahomes. the bills are 10-2. They are also 2-2 vs. teams over .500 and 8-0 vs. teams at or below .500. Beat Seahawks and chiefs and got smoked by the ravens and lost to the Texans. 

3 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

This triggered in my head the reality that, unlike Reid or McVey or Shanahan, there really isn't a notable Belichick coaching tree.  

Bill O'Brien, Brian Flores, Brian Daboll, Eric Mangini, Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia, Joe Judge.  Meh.

Nick Saban was with him Cleveland.  That's it.

Yeah it’s not pretty. I’m curious if daboll is retained and they take someone like sanders or ward what he looks like as a head coach with a Qb that’s not Daniel jones or Tommy cutlets or Drew lock 

 

  • Author
Just now, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

Uzomah looked good as blocker on Sunday.  Very Stoll-like.

11 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I look at it more this way, if you’re able to get him for a 5th round pick with conditions He needs to meet added onto it, I’m willing to take that chance. Dallas goedert is going to miss time at some point next year. So if Kyle Pitts goes off next year, I can either pay him because he’s good enough to pay at that point. Or I can just let him go into FA. If he plays that well he’s gonna get paid and you’re gonna get a compensatory third round pick the following year. So you either have him long term or he leaves and you get draft capital back down the road. Even if he doesn’t pan out it’s a late round pick.

can see Howie thinking if the price is right that he’s a saquon type player (obviously not mvp caliber just uber talented player) that needs a new scenery. 

I don't know if Pitts is uber talented.  He's physically gifted and is probably above average as a receiving TE.  I don't think he's going to go off in this offense because he's not an upgrade over Goeddert as a receiver.  He's probably a downgrade as a blocker.  

 

3 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

I don't know if Pitts is uber talented.  He's physically gifted and is probably above average as a receiving TE.  I don't think he's going to go off in this offense because he's not an upgrade over Goeddert as a receiver.  He's probably a downgrade as a blocker.  

I think he has some of the issues Barkley had in NY. I don’t think he has had the best coaching, underwhelming Qb situation (cousins isn’t the same after that Achilles) and probably more talented than what he’s shown. I don’t think he likely goes off cause he would be the 5th option on most weeks. But id still take a chance on a guy who’s physically a freak with upside if you can unlock it. Add on he probably could play some wide receiver for you. They took a chance on Dotson for an 3rd. I’d much rather have a shot with him for less compensation than what we gave up for Dotson. Especially if it’s a late round pick. He likely has more upside than most players you are taking in that area. 

10 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

I actually think Campbell is less of a candidate. He’s doing pretty much what he did in 2023, just with a better roster. Sirianni won’t win but I’d say what he’s doing in 2024 after 2023 should get more acclaim.

Jim Harbaugh, KOC, McDermott I think are the big candidates to me. Buffalo lost a lot of talent this offseason and somehow became a better team

I think Harbaugh just proved what a lot of people thought. That the team just needed better coaching

5 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I thinks McDermott would get more love (should) but Josh Allen is so good that i think people hold that against him as he has a top 3 Qb so expected to always be good. Similar with Reid with mahomes. the bills are 10-2. They are also 2-2 vs. teams over .500 and 8-0 vs. teams at or below .500. Beat Seahawks and chiefs and got smoked by the ravens and lost to the Texans. 

I think it would depend on what you would believe means more for the accolade. It is taking a team you wouldn't expect much from to a high record, is it being a CEO for a team that's talented all over, does already having a top QB give you an edge

So this is for everyone who is crapping their pants about what will we do if Jalen has to lead us back from a 2 score deficit. Because...he actually did that on Sunday.

Down 9-0. 10:55 left in Q2, we get the ball on the Ravens 49 after a defensive hold. Hurts goes 3/3 for 33 yards, runs once for 8 yards. Accounts for 41 yards and throws the TD to Goedert, while Barkley ran twice for 8 yards (1 yard loss, 9 yard gain). 

Next drive, down 9-7, we get the ball at our 32. Hurts goes 4/5 for 53 yards, runs for 9 yards to convert a 3rd down and sneaks in for the TD. 63 yards on the drive, Barkley ran 2x for 10 yards (had a 5 yard penalty, hence 73 total yards). So when we needed it -- 7/8 for 86 yards and a TD, 3 carries for 18 yards and a TD. And we never give up the lead.

There's a difference between not being asked to throw it all over the field and being incapable of doing so. Since the bye, when we have had to lean more on the pass game, Jalen has delivered. 

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I know this isn’t a topic for right now, but I could totally see the Atlanta Falcons trading Kyle Pitts away this off-season.  he’s a free agent at the end of 2026. They aren’t likely to pay him as he had a nice 4 game stretch and then kind of reverted back to what he’s been the last couple years. I could totally see the Eagles being involved in a trade if the compensation for him is cheap enough. take a gamble on him for a year. Potentially getting the capital back as a compensatory pick the following year if they let him walk or if he hits being goedert’s long term replacement.

I don't watch Falcons games but reading the reddit it seems like it's a work ethic issue. That might be fixed in a better environment but not sure if you'd want to risk it

A comment about him going to Chiefs and becoming an all pro was hilarious 

12 minutes ago, just relax said:

Fascinating. Puts Bradbury’s contract in a whole new light.

This insurance talk sent me down a rabbit hole.  I have written a boiler plate insurance clause for a player contract and then googled it.  Turns out they can insure the "unearned” portion of the signing bonus and that the club has an insurable interest in the player by contract.  @NCiggles would find this interesting.  Payments under the contract are considered an advance of any worker’s compensation award and thus any amount paid would be payable to the club.  In other words, his temporary and permanent disability awards go to the club and I suspect in essence reimburse a portion of the lost salary.  Peanuts but something is better than nothing.  

I have a call into a friend of mine.  She headed up U S claims for a large multinational that was big in entertainment insurance so she had more contact with Lloyd’s and Bermuda in this arena.  She and I are both retired now but if anyone I know has any experience in the area of NFL insurance, it’s her.  Just curious now.  That has to be a Lloyd’s type policy or surplus (less governed) lines type of policy but the amounts involved suggest some level of pooling or reinsurance.  I suspect with the worker’s compensation data available and NFL’s own data that a premium basis wasn’t hard to develop.  Now adjusting would be interesting.  Normally, with worker’s compensation a worker returns to active duty (either light or full) when released by the medical providers to do so.  I suspect a policy such as this has a medical proviso that isn’t tied to returning to playing versus being able, injury wise, to do so because of the restrictions tied to coming off IR in the NFL.  I doubt we’ll ever know fully what cap was/will be restored.  

12 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I think Harbaugh just proved what a lot of people thought. That the team just needed better coaching

I think it would depend on what you would believe means more for the accolade. It is taking a team you wouldn't expect much from to a high record, is it being a CEO for a team that's talented all over, does already having a top QB give you an edge

Josh Allen is amazing and going to carry that team to whatever success they have. So that gets held against him. Also Joe Brady has done a terrific job since becoming their OC (liked him a couple years ago when we hired sirianni). that team is built on Allen and McDermott has far less to do with that side of the ball so it’s held against him.

That said McDermott is a defensive HC. Their defense has been good for the most part over the years. But their run defense is bad this year. They give up 3rd most yards per carry and bottom half of the league in run defense. Pass defense is good but some of this is a byproduct of the teams they faced. Imo reason why Buffalo wants to avoid the ravens is because their run defense will just get ripped apart. It’s why they got the doors blown off by the ravens earlier this year. 

2 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I don't watch Falcons games but reading the reddit it seems like it's a work ethic issue. That might be fixed in a better environment but not sure if you'd want to risk it

A comment about him going to Chiefs and becoming an all pro was hilarious 

Tbh i think a team like the chargers might make sense if the price is right. Get him in with Jim harbaugh and good coaching it might turn his career around. Add on Herbert would be the best Qb he’s ever had. Imo that’s a team where it makes a lot of sense 

10 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

So this is for everyone who is crapping their pants about what will we do if Jalen has to lead us back from a 2 score deficit. Because...he actually did that on Sunday.

Down 9-0. 10:55 left in Q2, we get the ball on the Ravens 49 after a defensive hold. Hurts goes 3/3 for 33 yards, runs once for 8 yards. Accounts for 41 yards and throws the TD to Goedert, while Barkley ran twice for 8 yards (1 yard loss, 9 yard gain). 

Next drive, down 9-7, we get the ball at our 32. Hurts goes 4/5 for 53 yards, runs for 9 yards to convert a 3rd down and sneaks in for the TD. 63 yards on the drive, Barkley ran 2x for 10 yards (had a 5 yard penalty, hence 73 total yards). So when we needed it -- 7/8 for 86 yards and a TD, 3 carries for 18 yards and a TD. And we never give up the lead.

There's a difference between not being asked to throw it all over the field and being incapable of doing so. Since the bye, when we have had to lean more on the pass game, Jalen has delivered. 

But don't you know that he sucks because he is not throwing for 400 yards a game?

I mean, come on, man, stop boring us with silly little things like facts. It is much better that we use our feelings to determine how good a player is.

3 hours ago, Ace Nova said:

The 2025 cap could likely be around $286 million - if it has the same increase as the previous season ($30 mil +) and with record profits by the NFL, I wouldn’t see why it wouldn’t increase by at least that much. 

Lets hope you are right!

If you are right, according to OTC we have 41 players under contract for the 2025 season with an aggregate Cap Hit of $194,127,100 plus $29,089,224 of Dead Money, which means $223,216,324 of the $286,000,000 is used, leaving Howie $62,783,676 plus whatever carryover from 2024 is left at the end of the season ... which OTC says is currently $9,937,830.

The 41 players include:
QBs 1 2 and 3
RBs 1 and 2 (Gainwell is 3)
WRs 1 2 3 4 and 5
TEs 1 and 2
OTs 1 2 3 and 4
OGs 1 3 and 4
OCs 1

DEs/OLBs 2 3 and 4 (Sweat is 1 for this charting)
DTs 1 3 4 5 (Williams is 2 and Young is 5)
NTs 1
ILBs 2 and 3 (Baun is 1)
CBs 1 3 4 and 5 (Rodgers is 2 Slay is 4 and Ricks is 5
Safeties 1 2 3 4 and 5 (Bradberry is 5)
Specialists K1 and P1 (Lovato is LS1)

So the approximately $72 million has to cover RB3 (a Draft pick most likely) TE3 (a Draft pick most likely) OG2 (Becton) OC2 DE/OLB1 DT2 ILB1 (Baun) CB2 (Rodgers) and LS

If you add up the 2025 Cap Hits of the 2024 Draft Class you get just over $12 million as a proxy for the 2025 Draft salary pool, which brings the $72 million down to $60 million, but also provides seven picks in Rounds 1 2 3 4 5 5 5

Lets slice and dice the $60 million left
RB3 is more than likely a Draft pick
TE3 is more than likely a Draft pick
OG2 can use Dickerson' $6.5 million APY as a baseline, so plug Becton in as $7 million just for grins
OC2 is more than likely a Draft pick or a vet minimum contract
DE/OLB1looks like no less than $15 million per year based on the table below perhaps even no less than $20 million.  Shemar Stewart of Texas A&M with our Round 1 pick would be a good alternative to a FA.
DT2 is Williams.  Based on the fourth OTC table below, can we get him back for between $12 million and $16 million?
ILB1 is an interesting one to speculate about.  The table below shows the OTC info for ILBs.  Where does Baun fit into that table?
CB2 with Rodgers looks like between $6 million and $8 million based on the third OTC table below

Thoughts?

780409446_Screenshot2024-12-04at8_30_11AM.png.41df7a42035a1b04e13b08e8019a5b1a.png

2044846631_Screenshot2024-12-04at8_36_25AM.png.5f56a744b7b71458dfa7903ce2328364.png

509939591_Screenshot2024-12-04at8_42_29AM.thumb.png.65076aa9a7ab16e8f49b1220ecebf2c3.png

1577178915_Screenshot2024-12-04at8_48_43AM.png.72a5917f1963e0506ccb7683bee951a3.png

3 hours ago, just relax said:

No. Reputed to throw 108 mph.

It was a rhetorical question.

3 hours ago, TEW said:

I don’t think there is a "next” Becton. That’s kind of the point. There are basically 3 guys in the NFL who are worth a damn at this size — Becton and Mailata are two of them.

I tend to agree with TEW, which is why I took the time to put my post above together

At what point is Embiid just shut down for a couple months or the year?

 

2 hours ago, GoEagles614 said:

I think that there are some players on this team who’ve been given life - and have been in the league in bad situations - and will take pay cuts to stay in Philly. Beckon, Baun, Rodgers, fit that mold. Plus being contenders always helps. TJ Edwards was here forever and hit a massive payday - he gets to win 7 games a season now in Chicago. Woopty doo. 

Is TJ Edwards' "big pay day" a good proxy for what to pay Baun?

1 hour ago, BigEFly said:

Wondered if or how that works with the cap. I can see where it might protect Jeff’s pocketbook but recouping on a cap hit?  So I went looking and found this ESPN article.  Turns out it not only protects cap money, the premiums don’t count against the cap.  Looks like a clear benefit for both players and clubs yet ESPN calls it a loophole.  I suspect one that is unlikely to be opposed  by owners or players.  (Now the retired insurance geek in me is curious about where the insurance is coming from and in what form.)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41274295/nfl-insurance-policies-star-players-aaron-rodgers-tua-tagovailoa-jared-goff-joe-burrow-christian-mccaffrey

 

I can't see the players opposing it.  It effectively increases the available dollars that they get to share.

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

At what point is Embiid just shut down for a couple months or the year?

 

But Embiid has been out back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back .............. 

The guy has played in 4 of 19 games this year.  At what point does this "knee injury management" stuff go away? 

What became of that investigation the league was doing into the Sixers, Embiid, rest, management, hodge-podge of nonsense?

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I know this isn’t a topic for right now, but I could totally see the Atlanta Falcons trading Kyle Pitts away this off-season.  he’s a free agent at the end of 2026. They aren’t likely to pay him as he had a nice 4 game stretch and then kind of reverted back to what he’s been the last couple years. I could totally see the Eagles being involved in a trade if the compensation for him is cheap enough. take a gamble on him for a year. Potentially getting the capital back as a compensatory pick the following year if they let him walk or if he hits being goedert’s long term replacement.

What do you think he is likely to be paid?

I believe Gesicki is a FA this year again as well.

7 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Is TJ Edwards' "big pay day" a good proxy for what to pay Baun?

That would be a steal for Baun 

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