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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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6 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Howie's war chest for 2025 appears to be $72 million less $12 million for the Rookie Draft Pool.  Why do you believe Howie can only fit 2 of the big 4 under that net $60 million?

I don’t — I’m thinking we can keep at least 3. Just as a mental exercise in prioritization, I’d rank them as I have.

One thing I will say is that some team might offer Becton a 9 figure contract, which would presumably complicate matters.

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1 hour ago, mattwill said:

 

Or dominate and dominant

Or lose and loose. Or too and to. Or it's and its. Drives me crazy.

1 minute ago, TEW said:

I don’t — I’m thinking we can keep at least 3. Just as a mental exercise in prioritization, I’d rank them as I have.

One thing I will say is that some team might offer Becton a 9 figure contract, which would presumably complicate matters.

I honestly think Becton may be easier to keep than Williams. Becton has the overhang of being a "bust" former 1st rounder. Alim McNeil got 4 years, $97mm. Gotta think Williams' agent starts there, even though he should get less. 4 years, $84mm seems reasonable. Not sure we go there with Davis and Carter needing deals. That's a ton of money at DT.

I was just playing with the ESPN Playoff Machine and it looks like our best HFA scenario might be for us to win out, then the Lions to lose to the Packers, then either win out or at least beat the Vikings in the final game of the season.

Better yet, have us win out, the Lions lose this week and the Vikings lose any one of their final games (all NFC games). We can go on the road and win anywhere, but having the playoffs roll through the Linc is the goal. 

24 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

The tight end that I'd have interest in is Michael Mayer. His path to success is kinda blocked with the Raiders right now with Bowers, but he could be a good fit here as a complement to Goedert, who seems to miss a half dozen games a year anyway, and also as a potential successor. He also fits the profile of the kind of player that Howie tends to go for...younger guy with a good draft grade who still has some year(s) left on his contract. I doubt he'd cost more than a third.

Disclaimer. I'm a Notre Dame fan who loved Mayer in college. The Irish have had a string of quality tight ends over the past twenty years or so, and in my mind Mayer was the best of the bunch. My biggest surprise was when he was measured at the combine, he turned out to be smaller (height/arm length etc) than expected. But he "plays" bigger than his size.

Hes also a good buy low candidate. Also cheaper contract and more years left i believe than Pitts. 

4 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I honestly think Becton may be easier to keep than Williams. Becton has the overhang of being a "bust" former 1st rounder. Alim McNeil got 4 years, $97mm. Gotta think Williams' agent starts there, even though he should get less. 4 years, $84mm seems reasonable. Not sure we go there with Davis and Carter needing deals. That's a ton of money at DT.

Personally, I would let Williams, Sweat and Becton walk and bring back Baun and Rodgers (if we let Slay go). 

All three guys are going to sign decent contracts, and so we get comp picks. And we have natural replacements in Ojomo, Hunt and Steen. 

14 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

It's even worse than that. We don't commit many penalties, so teams that do commit a lot, like the ravens, see their number of penalties go way down when they play us compared to their average. 

The fact the ravens oline didn’t get a single holding call against them and they have the most in the nfl this year was absurd. 

8 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I honestly think Becton may be easier to keep than Williams. Becton has the overhang of being a "bust" former 1st rounder. Alim McNeil got 4 years, $97mm. Gotta think Williams' agent starts there, even though he should get less. 4 years, $84mm seems reasonable. Not sure we go there with Davis and Carter needing deals. That's a ton of money at DT.

Feels like Williams might be a down to the wire vinny curry extension for the eagles. I think eagles value him a lot 

7 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I honestly think Becton may be easier to keep than Williams. Becton has the overhang of being a "bust" former 1st rounder. Alim McNeil got 4 years, $97mm. Gotta think Williams' agent starts there, even though he should get less. 4 years, $84mm seems reasonable. Not sure we go there with Davis and Carter needing deals. That's a ton of money at DT.

I think there is something like a 25% chance that a team sees Becton as the answer to their OT problems and pays him as a premier RT. That would be something like 5 years, $120M. Not sure how it would look from a cap perspective but I think that takes us out of the running.

As for Williams, I’m starting to come around on the idea of keeping him and letting Davis walk. You can get a good nose tackle in the mid rounds. Finding a disruptive interior lineman is difficult. 

Would anyone be surprised if the eagles do go on to win the SB that lane retires? I know he said 2-3 more years but i wouldn’t be shocked if they did if he does 

10 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Some thoughts on the 2025 cap - per OTC, we have $250mm in cap liabilities and $32mm in cap space. Spotrac has us at $35mm, and this includes rolling over just over $10mm. So going with the ~$35mm, we can save $4.3mm by releasing Slay with a post 6/1 designation, and cutting JB will save $4.7mm with a post 6/1. So we're working with about $44mm in cap space, assuming the cap is $273mm. So here's how I'd spend that money, using about $32mm and saving the rest for draft picks.

Setting aside your player specific thoughts and focusing on the high level.  OTC is using a Base Salary Cap of $272,500,000.  Whether he is right or not @Ace Nova used $286,000,000. 

Also, in OTC's $250,704,030 is $1,900,000 for Baun, $3,484,706 for Becton, $5,815,000 for Graham, and a whopping $16,388,000 for Sweat.  All four of those players are have the possibility of being on the 2025 roster, and we all know that Howie will be moving a substantial portion of those numbers into prorated Bonus amounts in future years.  

Bottom-line I'm more comfortable with my (slightly optimistic) $60 million number than OTC's (slightly conservative) $32 million number.

 

Just now, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Would anyone be surprised if the eagles do go on to win the SB that lane retires? I know he said 2-3 more years but i wouldn’t be shocked if they did if he does 

I could see him wanting to go out still on top at his position but it's not like he's even regressed

I don't see him doing what Peters is doing

3 hours ago, NCiggles said:

I didn't realize @RememberTheKoy is actually Keyshawn Johnson.

He wasn't wrong.

4 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Setting aside your player specific thoughts and focusing on the high level.  OTC is using a Base Salary Cap of $272,500,000.  Whether he is right or not @Ace Nova used $286,000,000. 

Also, in OTC's $250,704,030 is $1,900,000 for Baun, $3,484,706 for Becton, $5,815,000 for Graham, and a whopping $16,388,000 for Sweat.  All four of those players are have the possibility of being on the 2025 roster, and we all know that Howie will be moving a substantial portion of those numbers into prorated Bonus amounts in future years.  

Bottom-line I'm more comfortable with my (slightly optimistic) $60 million number than OTC's (slightly conservative) $32 million number.

Yeah, Becton and Sweat have 2025 cap charges that could get pushed if they get extended. So maybe Becton is only a net cost of $4mm. Sweat's contract has been redone so many times, who knows. Maybe it's a wash. But you still start with the $35mm then adjust those guys (I see nothing for Baun on Spotrac, and I figured Graham into it at a net zero increase). It's about the net difference. So if Becton costs $4mm incremental instead of $6mm, and Sweat let's say is nothing incremental, that's $10mm of savings and $19mm in cap left. 

4 hours ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

My first real memories of baseball was the 93 world series and joe carter actually became my favorite player. I was young and all i knew was that homerun. I wised up though lol. 

Joe Carter ruined my childhood. You can go F your own face! :lol:

3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

That's one way to get it done :lol:

I don't care what anyone says, I love me some Jameis.

3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

First thought is Campbell

But Kevin O'Connell has the freaking Vikings 10-2 with Sam Darnold :lol:

I go O'Connell as of right now.

The NFL called out the abnormal nature of the 2024 cap increase due to COVID repayments and new media deals. Assuming another $30mm cap increase is folly.

https://operations.nfl.com/updates/football-ops/nfl-announces-2024-salary-cap/#:~:text=The NFL announced today,and benefits for retired players.
 

Quote

 

The unprecedented $30 million increase per club in this year’s Salary Cap is the result of the full repayment of all amounts advanced by the clubs and deferred by the players during the Covid pandemic as well as an extraordinary increase in media revenue for the 2024 season.


 

 

16 minutes ago, TEW said:

I think there is something like a 25% chance that a team sees Becton as the answer to their OT problems and pays him as a premier RT. That would be something like 5 years, $120M. Not sure how it would look from a cap perspective but I think that takes us out of the running.

As for Williams, I’m starting to come around on the idea of keeping him and letting Davis walk. You can get a good nose tackle in the mid rounds. Finding a disruptive interior lineman is difficult. 

Honestly, looking at the most recent estimates, the 5th year option on JD is going to be around $11.5mm for 2026. Might be the best route, then see if you can get Williams done and keep all 3 together for 2 more years. Obviously Carter will get a monster deal after the 2025 season, but gives you through 2026 with all 3.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

What has happened to the world of 'journalism' that these folks don't know the difference between 'our' and 'are'?!  :facepalm: 

Probably dictated and the phone transcribed poorly. Still, any journalist should be a competent copy editor.

43 minutes ago, TEW said:

I don’t — I’m thinking we can keep at least 3. Just as a mental exercise in prioritization, I’d rank them as I have.

One thing I will say is that some team might offer Becton a 9 figure contract, which would presumably complicate matters.

Maybe the Jets? 😵💫

25 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Yeah, Becton and Sweat have 2025 cap charges that could get pushed if they get extended. So maybe Becton is only a net cost of $4mm. Sweat's contract has been redone so many times, who knows. Maybe it's a wash. But you still start with the $35mm then adjust those guys (I see nothing for Baun on Spotrac, and I figured Graham into it at a net zero increase). It's about the net difference. So if Becton costs $4mm incremental instead of $6mm, and Sweat let's say is nothing incremental, that's $10mm of savings and $19mm in cap left. 

$19 million only if the Cap is $272 million.  If @Ace Novais right and the Cap is $286 million $19 million becomes $33 million ... plus any Cap Adjustments that Howie has finagled.

4 minutes ago, just relax said:

Maybe the Jets? 😵💫

:fishing:

Ok folks, everyone that's been around knows that I've been very critical of Howie's draft history, especially his defensive picks.   This past week, we got a big dose of watching Jalyx Hunt.  

 

Is it possible that Howie went a strong 3 for 3 on his defensive picks in this past year?  I feel confident to say that Quinyon and Cooper are home runs.  But, even if Hunt comes out just as a double... that's huge.   And with BG going down, they are going to be counting on him heavily moving forward.  If he can fill in just a bit of BG's niche at EDGE, this is a huge draft pick.

 

Going back a few years... 

Contrary to what I had said about Milton Williams during the bye week, he's shut me up big time over the last 8 weeks.  Happy to eat crow.  I'm still not sure about the resources spent on Jordan Davis, but...  he's been balling out well over the last few weeks, even if he's not getting a ton of snaps.  

 

Howie... 

I'm here to belly up to the buffet.
eating-crow-for-dinner.jpg?s=612x612&w=0

Just now, mattwill said:

$19 million only if the Cap is $272 million.  If @Ace Novais right and the Cap is $286 million $19 million becomes $33 million ... plus any Cap Adjustments that Howie has finagled.

You have to stop with the $286mm number. The NFL called it out as abnormal due to COVID repayments. The $30mm increase was the largest in history by both dollars and percentage due to the one-time impact.

41 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Would anyone be surprised if the eagles do go on to win the SB that lane retires? I know he said 2-3 more years but i wouldn’t be shocked if they did if he does 

I was surprised when Celek walked away after the SB.  I thought he easily had another 2 or 3 years left in the tank, especially as the #2 TE.  He was 'only' 32.  A lot of football left, BUT... at the same time, what was left to accomplish for him?  

If the Eagles win, I absolutely see it as a distinct possibility that Lane walks away on top.  Same question for him as Celek leaving on top... what more would have have to accomplish?  Lane is currently 34.  He'd be a 2 time Super Bowl champ, and might also have the feather in his cap of being on the OL for a 2k yard rusher (or at least a rushing yards champion).  I could easily see him walking off into the sunset on top.

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