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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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Both Celek and Goedert overlapped Zach Ertz

Brent Celek played 11 years for the Eagles and missed ONE game, playing 4,027 snaps. He never played in a 17 game season but his 17 game average comes out to 39 catches 486 yards and 3 TDs averaging 12.6 ypc. 

Dallas Goedert has played 7 years for the Eagles and has missed 24 games, playing 4,655 snaps. 3 of his seasons were 16 game seasons, the rest 17. His average is 64 catches 745 yards and 4 TDs averaging 11.7 ypc. 

-From 2009-2015, Brent Celek was the clear TE1 starting 103 of 111 games. In those seasons he averaged 47 catches for 602 yards 13 YPC and 4 TDs...averaged to 17 games, that's 50 catches for 646 yards and 4 TDs at 13 ypc. He had seasons of 8, 6, 5 and 4 TD.

-From 2020-2024, Dallas Goedert has been TE1 starting 58 of 61 games, but only averaging 12 games per season (injuries matter). During these last 4 seasons, he's averaged 51 catches for 618 yards and 3 TDs at 12 ypc...averaged out to 17 games, he would be at 71 catches for 861 yards and 4 TDs at 12 ypc. During his seasons as a starter, his TD high is 4 and his career high is 5.

 

Give me Brent Celek 10 out of 10 times. He's an ironman, and his averages give you more TD, more ypc and he's giving you every game of the season. Goedert is missing 4 games per year (more this year) and while he averages a few more catches, his numbers aren't as good as Brent Celek. 

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5 hours ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

It was worth it.  Frankly, best slap I have seen in decades.

3 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

NFL script may not get the Lions. They aren't losing out on both. The refs will screw the Eagles bad. I'm hoping for revenge as well, though. 

They definitely want Lions v chiefs but the Lions are losing the war of attrition, every week they lose a major player for an extended time. If the Lions can't make it we're the next best draw, but allegedly each year's super bowl is the most watched regardless of how awful it is so who really knows 

20 minutes ago, TEW said:

If you’re telling me I can trade a 5th or 6th round pick for 1 year of good starting level play, that’s a win all day, every day.

You are overvaluing late round picks by a lot. A 5th round pick has about a 5% chance of becoming a starter. A 6th round is 2%.

In other words, your expected value from a 5th round pick is 3.4 starts at a reasonable starting level of play. For a 6th round pick, it’s 1.4 starts. And this is calculated while assuming the "hit” would start from day 1. In reality it’s about 25% lower than that since almost no late round picks start from day 1 as a rookie.

If any GM is ever offered a starting level player on a rookie deal for a 5th round pick or later, it’s basically a no brainer unless there are injury or character concerns.

Eagles drafted Gainwell in the 5th in 2021, Calcaretta in the 6th in 2022, Ringo in the 5th in 2023. So in 3 straight drafts they’ve found role players/contributors on day 3. Just because the hit rate isn’t there in broad terms, doesn’t mean Eagles haven’t found success in those rounds.
 

See we can keep going back and forth on this all day, but at the end of the day he won’t produce or look like a stud in this offense next season. The passing targets go thru AJ/Devonta & Goedert will still be TE1. Pitts doesn’t offer anything in the blocking game. There’s a strong likelihood he wouldn’t even see the field much at all, and if he does I doubt the impact will really be there. Falcons exercised his 5th year option for $10.8 mil next year, how much of will we have to pay for a TE2 or TE3 while also using draft resources? Or are Falcons responsible for paying anll that? I actually don’t know answer to that question, but it’s worth mentioning. 

So it shows all the odds are against him of producing here in the first place & we already have a backup TE who has contributed in Goedert’s absence.

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, devpool said:

My dream sequence (and best storyline) is a super bowl rematch with KC and we absolutely curb stomp them, which is what should happen if we did play them except they have the refs in their pockets.

Realistically whoever wins the NFC is probably playing Buffalo. 

Until the Bills stop choking in the playoffs i wont pick the bills to get there

21 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Both Celek and Goedert overlapped Zach Ertz

Brent Celek played 11 years for the Eagles and missed ONE game, playing 4,027 snaps. He never played in a 17 game season but his 17 game average comes out to 39 catches 486 yards and 3 TDs averaging 12.6 ypc. 

Dallas Goedert has played 7 years for the Eagles and has missed 24 games, playing 4,655 snaps. 3 of his seasons were 16 game seasons, the rest 17. His average is 64 catches 745 yards and 4 TDs averaging 11.7 ypc. 

-From 2009-2015, Brent Celek was the clear TE1 starting 103 of 111 games. In those seasons he averaged 47 catches for 602 yards 13 YPC and 4 TDs...averaged to 17 games, that's 50 catches for 646 yards and 4 TDs at 13 ypc. He had seasons of 8, 6, 5 and 4 TD.

-From 2020-2024, Dallas Goedert has been TE1 starting 58 of 61 games, but only averaging 12 games per season (injuries matter). During these last 4 seasons, he's averaged 51 catches for 618 yards and 3 TDs at 12 ypc...averaged out to 17 games, he would be at 71 catches for 861 yards and 4 TDs at 12 ypc. During his seasons as a starter, his TD high is 4 and his career high is 5.

 

Give me Brent Celek 10 out of 10 times. He's an ironman, and his averages give you more TD, more ypc and he's giving you every game of the season. Goedert is missing 4 games per year (more this year) and while he averages a few more catches, his numbers aren't as good as Brent Celek. 

I liked Celekbut I’d take Goedert. 

1 minute ago, Casey @ Bat said:

I liked Celekbut I’d take Goedert. 

Goedert has everything you want in a TE, but IMO, he'll go down as one of the bigger what ifs, and one of the more overrated players in Eagles history. He makes occasional big plays, see NO game, but he's injured too much and just isn't consistent enough. I know you can't take away stats, but you can look at trends and the NO game was an anomaly if we're being honest. 10 catches for 170 yards. He hasn't come close to that before or after. He has 2 games with 60 yards that are the next highest total for him this year. All of this with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith missing time. How much of his production can be attributed to the offense and the QB? Who knows. I'm still going Celek.

3 hours ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Good let them lose, i hate the Steelers more than any team in the league 

Unfortunately the Eagles need them to win more games to help with the SoV tiebreaker. Tonight's game didn't matter though since results were going to be a wash anyway for SoV.

15 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Goedert has everything you want in a TE, but IMO, he'll go down as one of the bigger what ifs, and one of the more overrated players in Eagles history. He makes occasional big plays, see NO game, but he's injured too much and just isn't consistent enough. I know you can't take away stats, but you can look at trends and the NO game was an anomaly if we're being honest. 10 catches for 170 yards. He hasn't come close to that before or after. He has 2 games with 60 yards that are the next highest total for him this year. All of this with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith missing time. How much of his production can be attributed to the offense and the QB? Who knows. I'm still going Celek.

He'd be awesome if we didn't have Devonta

1 hour ago, TEW said:

If you’re telling me I can trade a 5th or 6th round pick for 1 year of good starting level play, that’s a win all day, every day.

You are overvaluing late round picks by a lot. A 5th round pick has about a 5% chance of becoming a starter. A 6th round is 2%.

In other words, your expected value from a 5th round pick is 3.4 starts at a reasonable starting level of play. For a 6th round pick, it’s 1.4 starts. And this is calculated while assuming the "hit” would start from day 1. In reality it’s about 25% lower than that since almost no late round picks start from day 1 as a rookie.

If any GM is ever offered a starting level player on a rookie deal for a 5th round pick or later, it’s basically a no brainer unless there are injury or character concerns.

It’s not the 6th round pick that matters in a trade for Pitts.  We can’t afford $11m in cap on a 4th option backup TE.  Need that money elsewhere.

9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Eagles fans should be rooting for the Chiefs here, ya know. It’s one of the twentysomething games we need to go our way to flip the strength of victory tiebreak with the Vikings. They beat the Texans this year.

So far

  • Both the Lions and the Vikings got a SOV loss when the Texans lost to the Chiefs. 
  • The Eagles got a win and a loss from the Ravens - Steelers game.
  • Thursday's game was a wash since none of the Eagles, Lions or Vikings played either the Chargers or Broncos this season.
  • The Sunday rooting guide is as follows:
  • Giants over the Falcons (Eagles 2-0, Vikings 1-1, Lions 0-0)
  • Bears over the Lions (Eagles 0-0, Vikings 2-0, Lions 1-0)
  • Browns - Bengals doesn't matter either way
  • Titans - Colts doesn't matter either way
  • Rams over the Jets (Eagles 1-0, Vikings 0-1, Lions 1-0)
  • Eagles over the Commies (0-2, Vikings 0-0, Lions 0-0)
  • Panthers over the Cards (Eagles 1-0, Vikings 0-1, Lions 0-1)
  • Seahawks over the Vikings (Eagles 0-0, Vikings 0-0, Lions 1-1)
  • Patriots - Bills doesn't matter either way
  • Jags over the Raiders (Eagles 1-0, Vikings 0-0, Lions 0-0)
  • Dolphins over the 49ers (Eagles 0-0, Vikings 0-1, Lions 0-1)
  • Cowboys over the Bucs (Eagles 2-0, Vikings 0-0, Lions 1-0)
  • Saints over Packers (Eagles 1-1, Vikings 0-2, Lions 0-2)
2 hours ago, Dwide Schrude said:

Eagles drafted Ringo in the 5th in 2023.

He was Pick 105 ... the 3rd pick of Round 4.  Eagles didn't have a 5th Round pick.

Tennessee getting blown out just proves that Alabama deserved to be in the playoffs!!! Oh, wait...Tennessee had a better record than Alabama, finished higher in the conference standings, and beat them head-to-head? No matter! Bama deserved to be there because they're Bama!

5 hours ago, TEW said:

In some packages, sure, but what you really want is a legitimate receiving threat. 

For inline blocking?

24 minutes ago, mattwill said:

He was Pick 105 ... the 3rd pick of Round 4.  Eagles didn't have a 5th Round pick.

You’re right, my bad. It didn’t sound right when I saw Ringo as a 5th but apparently I looked at the wrong place

23 minutes ago, Dwide Schrude said:

You’re right, my bad. It didn’t sound right when I saw Ringo as a 5th but apparently I looked at the wrong place

No problem.

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

So far

  • Both the Lions and the Vikings got a SOV loss when the Texans lost to the Chiefs. 
  • The Eagles got a win and a loss from the Ravens - Steelers game.
  • Thursday's game was a wash since none of the Eagles, Lions or Vikings played either the Chargers or Broncos this season.
  • The Sunday rooting guide is as follows:
  • Giants over the Falcons (Eagles 2-0, Vikings 1-1, Lions 0-0)
  • Bears over the Lions (Eagles 0-0, Vikings 2-0, Lions 1-0)
  • Browns - Bengals doesn't matter either way
  • Titans - Colts doesn't matter either way
  • Rams over the Jets (Eagles 1-0, Vikings 0-1, Lions 1-0)
  • Eagles over the Commies (0-2, Vikings 0-0, Lions 0-0)
  • Panthers over the Cards (Eagles 1-0, Vikings 0-1, Lions 0-1)
  • Seahawks over the Vikings (Eagles 0-0, Vikings 0-0, Lions 1-1)
  • Patriots - Bills doesn't matter either way
  • Jags over the Raiders (Eagles 1-0, Vikings 0-0, Lions 0-0)
  • Dolphins over the 49ers (Eagles 0-0, Vikings 0-1, Lions 0-1)
  • Cowboys over the Bucs (Eagles 2-0, Vikings 0-0, Lions 1-0)
  • Saints over Packers (Eagles 1-1, Vikings 0-2, Lions 0-2)

Need Niners to win to stay statistically alive and play Detroit with some heart next week, even if it hurts SoV.

Lots of Commanders hype going on.  Hope the Eagles destroy them.  Something like 34-3.

10 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

Mahomes was hit in the head. Not allowed to hit the QB in the head anymore. Seems pretty simple

No...some QBs can't be hit in the head..hell some QBs are allowed to have their face masks grabbed and pulled directly in front of a ref 

and have NOTHING called..as in Darnold, Burrow, Hurts, Tua to name just a couple. Mahomes can never be touched and it has become a level of insanity to which he is protected.

19 hours ago, mattwill said:

Your dad and I probably would get along.  We still have a 32” Sony Bravia KDL-32XBR4. For what we watch … the daily PBS Newshour, it serves us well.  However, we both have hearing aids these days and it would be much nicer if we could Bluetooth connect to the TV while watching.  So we have, like so many people, cruised the aisles at Costco.  I’m pretty sure we want LED rather than OLED, but really don’t know the trade offs well.  The one really important question is whether the speakers can still put out sound when the Bluetooth connection to the hearing aids is active.  It would be ideal for the hearing aids support to be able to connect to more than one person’s hearing aids simultaneously.

Thoughts?

 

I don’t have any experience using it, have only heard of it, but there are devices like the Phonak TV connector that hook up Bluetooth hearing aids to other devices.
 

I’m sure there are audio receivers out there that might have this technology built into it. Apple TV can also hook up 2 Bluetooth audio connections at a time, so that may also be a viable option. 

It's been an amazing season, one for the record books.  There's no turning back now. 3 more games until the Playoffs.  #1 Seed is still in play. Locking up a Division title is on the line today.   We have to finish this strong. Commanders, Boys and Gmen.  Of course it would be them as we continue this path to History.  The Eagles have won 12 of their last 15 Games against Washington including the last 6 of 7.  We've had there number for a while but they get us here or there.  The Eagles have done well on the road this year.  it's a Division game but I think they can pull this out by a few scores.  I expect Saquon to do his thing.  Along with AJ.   Again keeping a winning streak this long going get harder and harder the higher you climb this mountain.  It's wild they could have a chance of a historic winning streak this late in the season. I believe they will take care of business. 

6 hours ago, mattwill said:

He was Pick 105 ... the 3rd pick of Round 4.  Eagles didn't have a 5th Round pick.

They also traded their next years 3rd to move up and grab him. 

Think the eagles slip up today.  Give me 24-21 commanders 

8 hours ago, mattwill said:

He was Pick 105 ... the 3rd pick of Round 4.  Eagles didn't have a 5th Round pick.

Well, to be honest, Ringo cost a third (2024) because the Eagles had to trade for that fourth rounder. 

Figured Id share this. Just stumbled across this sale on a facebook ad. Macys has a sale on sports apparel including jerseys!

The cheapest ones marked from 129.99 down to 96.99

Vapor jerseys from 175 marked down to 130.

Barkley, Hurts, AJ Brown, Smith, Goedert, Mailata, Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis

No DeJean :sad:

https://www.macys.com/shop/shop-by-league/nfl/Gender,Product_department,Professional_team/Men,Jerseys,Philadelphia Eagles?id=207057&lid=sportsfanshop_nav-philadelphiaeagles

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