33 minutes ago, mattwill said:

 

I respectfully disagree with you guys on this.  The law of averages applies to random situations, but the Draft is not random.  That doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a fair share of randomness, but there is a whole lot of input and homework and judgment that takes most of the randomness out for the Eagles.  In addition there is learning.  I firmly believe that 2025 Howie would pick Jefferson and wouldn’t pick Davion.  In addition the presence of old souls like Fangio and Stoutland act as governors as well.  Both of them know exactly (almost) what they want in a player and they aren’t bashful in letting Howie and Nick know.

Finally, and this is where luck plays a role, this Draft class happens to be both strong and deep in the positions where the Eagles’ resources need to be shored up.  So, the chances of a deviation from the recent successful picks history is reduced.

JMO

It is also far from a pure science.  If it were, 50% of all first rounders wouldn't flop.  The current hot streak Howie is on is much more likely to regress towards the mean than it will be to maintain its historic level of high.   Since the 2021, the only 'bad' pick in the top 3 rounds was Sydney Brown, and the jury is still out on that one.

2021 - D Smith, Dickerson, and M Williams... 2 studs and an above average guy that just rewrote the price for DTs in the NFL.
2022 - Davis, Jurgens and Dean.  1 stud and 2 guys that are above average role players.
2023 - Carter, N Smith, Steen, S Brown - 1 tide raiser, 1 rising star, 1 guy who would have been a starter for literally any other team in the NFL and 1 guy who might get a legit shot at starting this year.
2024 - Mitchell, DeJean, Hunt - after year 1, you can't ask for more from those guys.  2 look like future centerpieces and the other, at least a great rotational pass rusher... maybe more.

 

That level of drafting success is almost unprecedented.  And is extremely hard to replicate two years in a row, let alone 5.

Question about comp picks….

I heard Bo Wulf say that the threshold for contracts that count against comp picks is about $5m/yr. Is there a possible workaround with incentives? Ex. Eagles sign Ojulari to 1 yr, $4.5m/yr with incentives that could take the value significantly higher than $5m? 

2 hours ago, shlo said:

With the Eagles cost cutting so much, I wonder if they might consider moving on from Jurgens too at some point. I think he's overrated. Made the Pro Bowl because most of the good centers are in the AFC. He's an excellent run blocker, but not a very good pass blocker. If he is wanting Creed Humphrey money or close to it, I just don't think it's worth it.

 

He will have a new long term deal before the start of the season.

6 minutes ago, Saltpeter said:

Question about comp picks….

I heard Bo Wulf say that the threshold for contracts that count against comp picks is about $5m/yr. Is there a possible workaround with incentives? Ex. Eagles sign Ojulari to 1 yr, $4.5m/yr with incentives that could take the value significantly higher than $5m? 

I think that depends on how the incentives are classified: likely or unlikely to be earned

Miles Sanders contract breakdown
1 year, $1.337m

Bonus: $167,500

2025: $1.17m ($1.03m guaranteed)

Veteran salary benefit contract

17 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

It is also far from a pure science.  If it were, 50% of all first rounders wouldn't flop.  The current hot streak Howie is on is much more likely to regress towards the mean than it will be to maintain its historic level of high.   Since the 2021, the only 'bad' pick in the top 3 rounds was Sydney Brown, and the jury is still out on that one.

2021 - D Smith, Dickerson, and M Williams... 2 studs and an above average guy that just rewrote the price for DTs in the NFL.
2022 - Davis, Jurgens and Dean.  1 stud and 2 guys that are above average role players.
2023 - Carter, N Smith, Steen, S Brown - 1 tide raiser, 1 rising star, 1 guy who would have been a starter for literally any other team in the NFL and 1 guy who might get a legit shot at starting this year.
2024 - Mitchell, DeJean, Hunt - after year 1, you can't ask for more from those guys.  2 look like future centerpieces and the other, at least a great rotational pass rusher... maybe more.

 

That level of drafting success is almost unprecedented.  And is extremely hard to replicate two years in a row, let alone 5.

I agree with your general point, but to play Devil’s advocate, wouldn’t the consistent success indicate an edge we are exploiting? 

Totally off topic from football, the Archive forum (TATE Classics) hasn't been part of our searchable database. So old posts were difficult to find if you wanted to reference them. 

I've been working on that issue and it should be solved now (or soon, depending on how fast/slow the system processes things). So if you search for posts from old blogs or gameday threads to reference them, they should now show up in a search.

I've also re-structured the gameday threads into their own season sub-forums. So each season is separate from the others. They're all in TATE Classics. 

Great now all my old awful Eagles takes are searchable. Thanks a lot 👎

Howie has 20 projected picks in the 25/26 drafts, he'll probably use 12-13 of them. The remainder will be used in trades to move up or for players. We aren't getting 20 young guns the next two years, they still need to hit really well.

So what was bactons contract?

Just now, ToastJenkins said:

So what was bactons contract?

2-$20M

5 minutes ago, TEW said:

I agree with your general point, but to play Devil’s advocate, wouldn’t the consistent success indicate an edge we are exploiting? 

Their names are stoutland and fangio…

4 hours ago, Breeze 44 said:

I would've like to keep him but now Steen has to show his worth but we also have Keegan who I've always thought reminded me of Herremans..he does need to put on at least 10-15 pounds.

The irony here is that Keegan weighed 350 as a sophomore at Michigan. I expect now he’s about 320.

Just now, devpool said:

Howie has 20 projected picks in the 25/26 drafts, he'll probably use 12-13 of them. The remainder will be used in trades to move up or for players. We aren't getting 20 young guns the next two years, they still need to hit really well.

Or move some of the '26 picks into '27.

9 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

Great now all my old awful Eagles takes are searchable. Thanks a lot 👎

That was the main reason I did it! lol

2 hours ago, mattwill said:

Interesting post by @NOTW in another thread

 

I posted it here too, but glad y'all are venturing outside the blog 😜

5 hours ago, NOTW said:

 

Will Barkley, Brown, Dotson, and Baun be the only non-drafted starters next season?

 

6 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Will Barkley, Brown, Dotson, and Baun be the only non-drafted starters next season?

 

Possible …. and it’s also an excellent personal injury law firm 

27 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Their names are stoutland and fangio…

I agree. But also the profile of player we have been drafting is different: mostly SEC powerhouse prospects (even Mitchell was offered a transfer to Alabama) with big time physical talent.

13 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Will Barkley, Brown, Dotson, and Baun be the only non-drafted starters next season?

 

Technically Blankenship was an UDFA. 

Current ages of the "starters".  The average age at the beginning of the season will be 26.  Only two over 30. 

50 minutes ago, Saltpeter said:

Question about comp picks….

I heard Bo Wulf say that the threshold for contracts that count against comp picks is about $5m/yr. Is there a possible workaround with incentives? Ex. Eagles sign Ojulari to 1 yr, $4.5m/yr with incentives that could take the value significantly higher than $5m? 

They count. As does playing time and other bonuses. It’s why the NFL waits to award comp picks in March once everything is settled. It would just not count in the projection right away but when they figure everything out it would.

1 minute ago, TEW said:

Technically Blankenship was an UDFA. 

Yes, technically.  And every year I qualify that Blankenship's acquisition was a result of our draft process.  He was identified by the teams' college scouts.  As opposed to Baun, who was identified by our pro scouts.  The team considers him "home grown".  So should we.

5 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Current ages of the "starters".  The average age at the beginning of the season will be 26.  Only two over 30. 

Further...the average may to down if/when draftees crack the lineup.