8 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

So after both Howie and Eliot Wolf's statements, I think this is where we stand with AJ. My best guess is he is traded after June 1, but I wouldn't wager on it.

AJ and his reps gave the Eagles a list, reportedly 4 teams (BUF, KC, NE and LAC), that AJ would like to be traded to. So it's not a full trade demand - just get me out of here. AJ has no interest in going to the Browns, for example. Of those 4, it appears NE is the only serious player. Conversations happened early in the league year, and we were too far apart on compensation. So both sides decided to kick the can and revisit after June 1, when the cap hit can be spread out. NE definitely hopes that Howie lowers his demands after June 1 when the cap issues are more manageable, and Howie likely hopes NE gets more desperate.

So there's basically 2 questions now:

1. What does AJ do with OTAs and moving forward between now and June 1? I'd assume Howie has kept AJ's reps in the loop on any discussions, and so they know what's been offered and what Howie is asking for. So far, they haven't put on any public pressure to try and force Howie to take a lesser deal. Does that change after the draft, or during OTAs? If AJ were to go more public, the Eagles lose leverage.

2. Will NE be willing to pay up when the pick is over 10 months away? Will Howie drop his asking price given the more manageable cap hit? I'd be surprised if Howie took any package without a 1st rounder unless AJ forces his hand (see above).

So, we're in this nether world. It's not a full trade demand. But does it become one if AJ gets impatient?

Oh, and then there's the whole getting an extension done with AJ part of it for the Pats if we agree on comp.

Very nicely summarized.

1 hour ago, BigEFly said:

A $200,000 job should be full time, as I responded to JR. I have always advocated full time refs.

You would need an entirely different feeder system for referees. I think the pathway to become an NFL referee is almost exclusively through college refereeing. There is a developmental program that referees from the Power 4 Conference referees can apply to in order to become NFL referees. Referees are usually from high paid careers that likely would balk at risking their professional standing for a one-off shot at refereeing for a season.

2 hours ago, BigEFly said:

A $200,000 job should be full time, as I responded to JR. I have always advocated full time refs.

What do they do from March until August? Yes there needs to be more uniformity in how games are called so more training but part of that problem is with the league IMO.

Well the NFL is going flag football

1 hour ago, Waiting4Someday said:

I'm capitalist so if the market is $200K so be it, you start messing with that dynamic and it's only a matter of time below the trash piles up and we're sitting in the dark.

Athletic article says the average ref’s pay is $350,000.

The hope here for Howie is that another team like the Rams enter the bidding and say eff it. The only thing is Howie will want a good bit more from an NFC rival to make it worth it. Think this lands at roughly 700 points (even to Waddle's value) on the Jimmy Johnson draft value board. Which means the value of a high 1st rounder. But don't think the Patriots will actually give up the 1st rounder itself. Thus, the dilemma and a game of chicken here. The compromise, would likely be whatever compilation of picks or players that would be needed to get to about 700. And that is the deal here. I just see Boutte (in final year of 4 year deal) being the odd man out for Pats in that trade coming back to the Eagles, which I'd be happy with.

It's also kind of odd Brandon Graham is at the Owners meetings and doing his PC from there, I presume, unless they all just happen to be in Phoenix, Arizona for the same half week stretch.

Starting to wonder if Graham is taking on an official role in the FO.

Sirianni wants no part of Stoutland being around.

25 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

It's also kind of odd Brandon Graham is at the Owners meetings and doing his PC from there, I presume, unless they all just happen to be in Phoenix, Arizona for the same half week stretch.

Starting to wonder if Graham is taking on an official role in the FO.

Jeffrey has adopted him and he is ousting Julian as the new heir apparent of the franchise.

6 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Jeffrey has adopted him and he is ousting Julian as the new heir apparent of the franchise.

Let's Go Brandon! 😅

1 hour ago, vikas83 said:

So after both Howie and Eliot Wolf's statements, I think this is where we stand with AJ. My best guess is he is traded after June 1, but I wouldn't wager on it.

AJ and his reps gave the Eagles a list, reportedly 4 teams (BUF, KC, NE and LAC), that AJ would like to be traded to. So it's not a full trade demand - just get me out of here. AJ has no interest in going to the Browns, for example. Of those 4, it appears NE is the only serious player. Conversations happened early in the league year, and we were too far apart on compensation. So both sides decided to kick the can and revisit after June 1, when the cap hit can be spread out. NE definitely hopes that Howie lowers his demands after June 1 when the cap issues are more manageable, and Howie likely hopes NE gets more desperate.

So there's basically 2 questions now:

1. What does AJ do with OTAs and moving forward between now and June 1? I'd assume Howie has kept AJ's reps in the loop on any discussions, and so they know what's been offered and what Howie is asking for. So far, they haven't put on any public pressure to try and force Howie to take a lesser deal. Does that change after the draft, or during OTAs? If AJ were to go more public, the Eagles lose leverage.

2. Will NE be willing to pay up when the pick is over 10 months away? Will Howie drop his asking price given the more manageable cap hit? I'd be surprised if Howie took any package without a 1st rounder unless AJ forces his hand (see above).

So, we're in this nether world. It's not a full trade demand. But does it become one if AJ gets impatient?

Oh, and then there's the whole getting an extension done with AJ part of it for the Pats if we agree on comp.

I think 1 is the better question. We don't have any idea what AJ will do. My guess is he may skip OTAs he may not, but if he's here opening day I think he'll be fine and not be a problem... assuming the offense can actually function with any semblance of effectiveness. But even if it sucks I think he'll be like 2025 at worst where he showed he was annoyed, but wasn't actually a problem.

2 - the biggest question here is if the Pats give up their 2027 1st. It probably depends on what they do in the draft. My hunch is they'd be hesitant to. I'm quite confident Howie will not drop his asking price. Two reasons. 1) It's a fair price compared to what other inferior WRs got traded for. 2) Part of the price isn't just the cap ramifications pre June 1st, it's Howie is going to need a substantial return if he's going to objectively weaken his roster and chances of winning a Super Bowl in 2026. This isn't a rebuild year, they're trying to win. If Howie is going to lower his chances, the return will need to be substantial. I think a 2027 1st and a 3rd at the absolute least. I believe right now the asking price is a 1st and 2nd. And honestly, if the Eagles don't draft a WR early on draft night, I could see the asking price increasing if anything, because at that point Howie will have no pivot available. Going into a season with Devonta, Hollywood, Cooper, and Moore is a totally unserious WR group for a team with SB aspirations.

So I think this is the Patriots agree to give up a 1st and 3rd in June or AJ Brown is here and if he is, is probably a good soldier unless the offense totally stinks or the team stinks and at that point maybe they move him at the deadline or something.

19 hours ago, ManuManu said:

I know this isn’t popular, but I think I’m OK if the top three edges are Hunt, Smith and Ebiketie. Of course Smith probably gets hurt and that looks ridiculous.

I think Howie and Lurie aren't expecting a lot this year. Trying to build a competitive team? Sure they will try. But I think they know their sights are in the 2027 year and beyond. A lot of cap off the books, New start with a new QB under a rookie contract allowing these defensive stars to get extensions. There is no chance they keep Jalen by extending him to the 65-75mill reporters are projecting Jalen's camp is going to want as a avg per year.

Being a season ticket holder yes it sucks thinking that way and the money burning away for a more then likely mediocre season but under Howie the last two resets in QB(On rookie deals) and HC have lead to SBs.

No one really talks about what AJ Brown leaving costs the Eagles...beyond the cap hit.

I'm not the cap guy. Before June 1, it's 43-44m. After June 1, it's 16-20m deferred over 2 years. @vikas83 can verify or refute those numbers, but everyone gets the point. Basically a lot before June 1 and manageable after.

But here's the real cost. The 2025 offense was not good. If the only change to the 2025 already not good offense is a new OC, another year of age on a falling apart OL, and subtracting AJ Brown...the Eagles essentially can't even pretend to have SB aspirations next year. AJ Brown is a tipping point of sorts. You trade him, you might as well punt on 2026. May sound like an exaggeration, but you try to argue otherwise.

And the cost of punting on a season should be much higher than any other team realistically will give up for AJ.

I don't understand why the Patriots wouldn't give up a first rounder for Brown. He's definitely worth it, they're just being cheap.

You're not really punting on 2026 if you believe AJ Brown is a declining asset at this point. Then you sell here a little early before he becomes Alshon and is worth nothing. That's the track I see coming here soon enough. Whether it's due to age, injury or whatnot. The dude is just not the same player these days. Lost explosion, concentration, athleticism and does not separate anymore. Check his 2022/2023 highlights and you will see a different guy. There is totally a world where the offense is better if they get that #2 WR back in trade or in a draft. Then it's a very dynamic and vertical crew we have that can play to Jalen's strengths. Much more optimistic than many here on the variety and diversity that this offense can bring minus AJ. AJ was a 1 trick pony at times last year and that trick even waned. Being a threat with RAC is also falling off a cliff, which was one of his main strengths. I just see a big name here at this point and not the star WR we had a couple years ago.

10 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

No one really talks about what AJ Brown leaving costs the Eagles...beyond the cap hit.

I'm not the cap guy. Before June 1, it's 43-44m. After June 1, it's 16-20m deferred over 2 years. @vikas83 can verify or refute those numbers, but everyone gets the point. Basically a lot before June 1 and manageable after.

But here's the real cost. The 2025 offense was not good. If the only change to the 2025 already not good offense is a new OC, another year of age on a falling apart OL, and subtracting AJ Brown...the Eagles essentially can't even pretend to have SB aspirations next year. AJ Brown is a tipping point of sorts. You trade him, you might as well punt on 2026. May sound like an exaggeration, but you try to argue otherwise.

And the cost of punting on a season should be much higher than any other team realistically will give up for AJ.

Smith may be able to take up the mantle but tape showed that AJ helped Smith just by his presence on the field. Their hate for AJ has clouded their reality that we'll be fine with AJ gone

8 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

You're not really punting on 2026 if you believe AJ Brown is a declining asset at this point. Then you sell here a little early before he becomes Alshon and is worth nothing. That's the track I see coming here soon enough. Whether it's due to age, injury or whatnot. The dude is just not the same player these days. Lost explosion, concentration, athleticism and does not separate anymore. Check his 2022/2023 highlights and you will see a different guy. There is totally a world where the offense is better if they get that #2 WR back in trade or in a draft. Then it's a very dynamic and vertical crew we have that can play to Jalen's strengths. Much more optimistic than many here on the variety and diversity that this offense can bring minus AJ. AJ was a 1 trick pony at times last year and that trick even waned. A threat with RAC is also falling off a cliff, which is was one of his main strengths. I just see a big name here at this point and not the star WR we had a couple years ago.

I can get on board with that rationale because I do believe AJ is declining. But a declining AJ is still a really good player.

And our offense is unquestionably on a downward trajectory. Running it back with an aging, declining offense minus AJ Brown...you've got to acknowledge that the offense will fall below a necessary threshold to compete next year. There's no young players to step up. A new scheme is NOT magic. No one seems willing to acknowledge that this same offense minus AJ plus new OC is not going to be acceptable next year.

When I see someone say...yea...offense will suck next year and it will make the team a non-contender, but I want something good for AJ before he's worth nothing and that's worth it to me because we were doomed anyway. That I can't argue with. But anyone saying that they can unload AJ and actually have something to cheer for next year...that's delusional.

So if we trade AJ, I want enough draft compensation that makes it worth it have zero excitement for the 2026 season. That's my price as a fan.

2 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

I can get on board with that rationale because I do believe AJ is declining. But a declining AJ is still a really good player.

And our offense is unquestionably on a downward trajectory. Running it back with an aging, declining offense minus AJ Brown...you've got to acknowledge that the offense will fall below a necessary threshold to compete next year. There's no young players to step up. A new scheme is NOT magic. No one seems willing to acknowledge that this same offense minus AJ plus new OC is not going to be acceptable next year.

When I see someone say...yea...offense will suck next year and it will make the team a non-contender, but I want something good for AJ before he's worth nothing and that's worth it to me because we were doomed anyway. That I can't argue with. But anyone saying that they can unload AJ and actually have something to cheer for next year...that's delusional.

I will have plenty to root for with Devanta getting more targets and the new WR 3 maybe seeing the ball this year. If you are getting 2025 AJ Brown, you weren't going anywhere, anyway this year. 2024 AJ was pretty uneven as well, but better. He's out in 2027 assuredly. So, mind as well start this process now with a new offense and everyone pulling in the same direction here. Guys might start getting excited about touching the ball now in this offense. 2 to 3 man show before. Got stale, plodding and boring. New energy and speed will be welcome.

35 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

No one really talks about what AJ Brown leaving costs the Eagles...beyond the cap hit.

I'm not the cap guy. Before June 1, it's 43-44m. After June 1, it's 16-20m deferred over 2 years. @vikas83 can verify or refute those numbers, but everyone gets the point. Basically a lot before June 1 and manageable after.

But here's the real cost. The 2025 offense was not good. If the only change to the 2025 already not good offense is a new OC, another year of age on a falling apart OL, and subtracting AJ Brown...the Eagles essentially can't even pretend to have SB aspirations next year. AJ Brown is a tipping point of sorts. You trade him, you might as well punt on 2026. May sound like an exaggeration, but you try to argue otherwise.

And the cost of punting on a season should be much higher than any other team realistically will give up for AJ.

Just to clarify, the dead cap is going to be $43M-$44M no matter what. If it's before June 1 it all hits in 2026. If after, the $16M-$20M is in 2026 with the rest deferred over into 2027. It's not just $16M-$20M deferred over 2 years.

28 minutes ago, beto_eagles said:

I don't understand why the Patriots wouldn't give up a first rounder for Brown. He's definitely worth it, they're just being cheap.

The main sticking point to me is the Patriots were willing to give up #31 but Howie wants 2027's 1st, since it obviously has potential to be a much better pick than #31. That seems to be what they couldn't agree on which does make me question what will change if they wait for post 6/1. It could be Howie will agree to a conditional 2 at that time (but spin it as a 1st like he usually does).

Some people here will see this report and still refuse to believe that AJ wants to be traded.

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

The main sticking point to me is the Patriots were willing to give up #31 but Howie wants 2027's 1st, since it obviously has potential to be a much better pick than #31. That seems to be what they couldn't agree on which does make me question what will change if they wait for post 6/1. It could be Howie will agree to a conditional 2 at that time (but spin it as a 1st like he usually does).

I think the Waddle trade really complicates that. Howie will not want egg on his face getting less than a first for AJ.

1 hour ago, BigEFly said:

Athletic article says the average ref’s pay is $350,000.

Seems like there’s a range with some making more than others. I guess if I want get in on this gravy train I just need to get a college gig and put in 10yrs - the nepo babies are probably already lined up though.

The Patriots are not gonna bid against themselves like Darryl Morey (with Paul George and others). I think they are smarter than that. They know AJ wants to be a Patriot (wants new deal) and the market is thin. The media and Howie can project "we would like to keep him" all day long (of course he will say that line on record), but think the cat's out of the bag with that one and everyone knows the deal. There's no being sly here.