might of already been mentioned but i just saw the vid of vikings laughing at eagles when they found out they didnt take justin jefferson. wow....

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

But then what's the answer? Wentz needs Reich back? I don't see that happening so they need to find a Reich part II? But that's easier said than done. I mean before Philly Reich wasn't exactly setting the NFL on fire. 

Maybe Wentz needs DeFilippo.  

2 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Maybe Wentz needs DeFilippo.  

Maybe. I mean who knows. He seems to like Press from what we are told so I'm not even sure at this point. 

50 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Just thought it was interesting seeing how another organization perceived the Reagor pick. They clearly didn’t have him anywhere near Jefferson and would have settled on a corner had he been gone at 21. I get Reagor has been hurt this year, but even if healthy I doubt he matches what Jefferson has done thus far. But we’ll see how it pans out. 

Where do you get that from? They said they are going WR at 22 and trading back from 25 to take a CB, and said "there probably taking a WR too here." They probably had a handful of WR's they liked, and Jefferson was at the top. Doesn't mean they didn't have Reagor near him or settled on a corner.

6 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Maybe Wentz needs DeFilippo.  

I doubt he takes a demotion back to QB coach. Better to just get someone else

2 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I doubt he takes a demotion back to QB coach. Better to just get someone else

??? Hes currently the QB coach of the Bears. Your thinking when he was hired by the Vikings and the Jags as OC. He was fired from both. 

2 minutes ago, espinozamotor said:

might of already been mentioned but i just saw the vid of vikings laughing at eagles when they found out they didnt take justin jefferson. wow....

I laughed at the Vikings when they signed Cousins.  

1 minute ago, DeathByEagle said:

??? Hes currently the QB coach of the Bears. Your thinking when he was hired by the Vikings and the Jags as OC. He was fired from both. 

Did not know that. Thought he was an OC somewhere still

35 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Cause all those players given the situation they are in now and given the situation there in Philadelphia would have the same success or failure as in those places? Seems like cause he isn’t doing well there means he wouldn’t do well here which isn’t a very good argument.

Also we are in year one. I’d be willing to bet almost all those players are going to get more opportunities and chances to prove the value of that pick before we are going to see from Jalen hurts because the Eagles are tied to Carson really through 2021 and likely 2022. He would have to get hurt or play so poorly the Eagles with bench him. And frankly wentz has played really poorly and they still haven’t benched him

There’s also the Eagles could trade up from 53 to get somebody who could help right now and the future. So saying with everyone at 53 in around there wasn’t very good so far. You know they could’ve leapfrog Dallas and the Bears and gotten Jaylen Johnson who is a starting corner right now. Except they didn’t wanna do that because they wanted to Jalen hurts

i’m just going to also point out that Mims has looked ok over the last 3 games he’s gotten to play. He has 13 less yards as Jalen Reagor in less games played and arguably a worse offense. 

Again, the Eagles needed a #2 QB given that Wentz was unable to finish the 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons.  To not address the position would have been stupid.  To have Sudfeld or McCown as the #2 would have been stupid.  None of Flacco, Dalton, or Newton has shown to be a rational choice as a #2 -- and they wouldn't have addressed the position for the next four years as Hurts has.

I'll evaluate the pick if/when Hurts needs to play QB as the starter.  Would I have made the pick?  Nope -- but it's not as though there wasn't any rationale for the pick.

28 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

NFL app said JJAW has it and the others were in close contact with him

Close contact? So every CB or LB that covered him in any game. 

1 minute ago, dawkdaballhawk said:

Close contact? So every CB or LB there covered him in any game. 

If all his tests came back negative until today it was probably just guys he worked out with recently.

Just now, LeanMeanGM said:

If all his tests came back negative until today it was probably just guys he worked out with recently.

I was just being a jackass about his inability to get separation. 

3 minutes ago, dawkdaballhawk said:

I was just being a jackass about his inability to get separation. 

Oh, i'm dumb

 

1 hour ago, austinfan said:

Hurts is no threat to Wentz, he reflected the reality that Wentz has gotten injured repeatedly, and the pain of watching McCown last year.

Nor is #53 exactly a lock to start in the NFL. Of the next 14 picks, 2 are starting.

The guys picked after him:

#54 Epenesa DE,

#55 Dobbins, RB  55/310

#56 Davis, DT

#57 Jefferson WR 10/136

#58 Cleveland, OT

#59 Mims WR, 10/146

#60 Uche, LB

#61 Fulton CB

#62 Dillon RB 23/97

#63 Gay LB

#64 Chinn S

#65 Wilson, LB

#66 Gibson RB, 103/436

#67 Okwara DE

 

Most, if not all, of the RBs, LBs, DBs would start (or play significant minutes) for the Eagles.

Anyone read Kapadia’s article yesterday? It was on point. The Athletic guys have been so good this season. It’s nothing that some posters here haven’t said dating back to the offseason and how much of a disaster that offseason could end up being, but it’s nice to see the writers in this town really pick apart how bad things are right now for them.

 

BLG and Kempski KILLED them today.

Kempski had a factoid where the Eagles have 12 wins dating back to 2019 and 7 of those 12 wins are against Eli Manning, DiNucci, Haskins, Falk, Mullens, Trubisky, Keenum.

31 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Again, the Eagles needed a #2 QB given that Wentz was unable to finish the 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons.  To not address the position would have been stupid.  To have Sudfeld or McCown as the #2 would have been stupid.  None of Flacco, Dalton, or Newton has shown to be a rational choice as a #2 -- and they wouldn't have addressed the position for the next four years as Hurts has.

I'll evaluate the pick if/when Hurts needs to play QB as the starter.  Would I have made the pick?  Nope -- but it's not as though there wasn't any rationale for the pick.

And who says you couldn’t have addressed it in the 3-4th rounds where you have a developmental prospect you develop. No offense i don’t think hurts is ready to start year 1 anyway if wentz goes down. So you likely weren’t saving the season in 2020 if wentz got hurt. So there’s that factor. So with a developmental guy I’m still getting 3-4 years as hurts imo is still a developmental QB just drafted higher.

Also why keep sudfeld if he’s useless like basically the eagles made him? If we got to him he season then it is really over if they believe a rookie during a pandemic gave them a better a better shot if something happens to wentz  

Also if you didn’t poorly address it in the previous draft taking thorson this would’ve been avoided. Not talked about enough. so you wasted a pick cause you improperly scouted a qb who was complete garbage and wasted a pick in that draft. So doesn’t give me confidence they know what they are doing drafting and developing backups as sudfeld is apparently useless and so was thorson  

Also Jameis winston went for dirt cheap and imo is a quality backup. Is he good as a starter? No. But i don’t think hurts is going to just jump in a be good either. And he might be even worse than what winston showed so far in his career. And likely struggle as a rookie. That’s a possibility. 

Again it’s your back up. FYI not every team has the luxury of having nick foles step in and taking over and saving a season. Usually your starter gets hurt your season is over. People need to stop romanticizing that a backup comes in For wentz the season is saved. That happens far less than people tend to think. Over the course of the nfl there’s been far more times backups don’t save the day then do and some were drafted high and some werent. More often they fail. people romanticize about he ones that saved the day like a handful and the 100s of other teams they just ignore to make an argument  

I’m not taking a second round QB when i have massive other areas of need then backup QB. Yes corner, safety, linebacker, defensive end where Graham is 33 and Barnett might not even be here in 2021 if he flopped and youth on the oline when lane has been perpetually hurt over the last two years and kelce might be playing his last season were far more vital to this team right now then a backup QB who likely in year one isn’t saving the eagles if wentz went down. And the best case scenario is hurts never has to play besides the package plays

 

 

Time for the modified Philly Special

 

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Or yeah perhaps Doug needs to go I'm certainly not against that at this point. But I guess my point was more around, there have been a number of different coaches in this building since Reich and none of them have seemingly helped improve Wentz? I mean that's not a great look for Wentz is it?

I mean it could be but....................... 1 man was able to make it happen so in my book it can be done

20 minutes ago, Desertbirds said:

Most, if not all, of the RBs, LBs, DBs would start (or play significant minutes) for the Eagles.

Defensive ends as well when Barnett missed a few weeks. Heck Ezra Cleveland might be playing significant snaps at T/G here with all the injuries. 

10 minutes ago, dawkdaballhawk said:

Time for the modified Philly Special

 

I am more hoping we could just get a simple rub route concept to work. 

4 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

And who says you couldn’t have addressed it in the 3-4th rounds where you have a developmental prospect you develop. No offense i don’t think hurts is ready to start year 1 anyway if wentz goes down. So you likely weren’t saving the season in 2020 if wentz got hurt. So there’s that factor. So with a developmental guy I’m still getting 3-4 years as hurts imo is still a developmental QB just drafted higher.

Also why keep sudfeld if he’s useless like basically the eagles made him? If we got to him he season then it is really over if they believe a rookie during a pandemic gave them a better a better shot if something happens to wentz  

Also if you didn’t poorly address it in the previous draft taking thorson this would’ve been avoided. Not talked about enough. so you wasted a pick cause you improperly scouted a qb who was complete garbage and wasted a pick in that draft. So doesn’t give me confidence they know what they are doing drafting and developing backups as sudfeld is apparently useless and so was thorson  

Also Jameis winston went for dirt cheap and imo is a quality backup. 

Again it’s your back up. FYI not every team has the luxury of having nick foles step in and taking over and saving a season. Usually your starter gets hurt your season is over. People need to stop romanticizing that a backup comes in For wentz the season is saved. That happens far less than people tend to think. Over the course of the nfl there’s been far more times backups don’t save the day then do and some were drafted high and some werent. More often they fail. people romanticize about he ones that saved the day like a handful and the 100s of other teams they just ignore to make an argument  

I’m not taking a second round QB when i have massive other areas of need then backup QB. Yes corner, safety, linebacker, defensive end where Graham is 33 and Barnett might not even be here in 2021 if he flopped and youth on the oline when lane has been perpetually hurt over the last two years and kelce might be playing his last season were far more vital to this team right now then a backup QB who likely in year one isn’t saving the eagles if wentz went down. 

 

 

QB is a more premium position than any of the others; it’s not a luxury.  
The Eagles decided they couldn’t draft a #2 QB in the 3rd/4th round.  They could have drafted Jake Fromm or Jacob Eason; they chose not to.

Winston threw 30 INT last season.  For all the griping about Wentz’s play this season, that’s who Winston has been his entire career.  We’ll see how he does the next few weeks.

There isn’t any romanticizing about having a #2 QB who can win important games.  The Eagles had one with Foles.  There wasn’t one moment in last year’s playoff game when anyone could seriously believe Josh McCown was going to win that game — and he is objectively a better QB than Sudfeld.  Howie has already said Sudfeld is gone after this season.  Wentz was the Eagles only chance last season, and when he went out the season was done.  The Eagles feel as though they’ve filled that void with Hurts — we will likely see for sure.

The Eagles needed a #2 QB.  You didn’t like how they went about it, but neither you or I make that decision.  There was rationale for it.

 

2 hours ago, wtfcares said:

You conveniently ignored my main point which is Wentz was MVP level with Reich then regressed every year with Doug.

And yes the combination of Luck after all the injuries, Brissett, and a 55 year old rivers is nothing more than average. 
 

I wasn’t ignoring anything. I think you are overrating Reich. We also had Flip, there also was Wentz being majorly hurt. There are a ton of factors. The combination of Luck and Rivers is way above average. 

36 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Again, the Eagles needed a #2 QB given that Wentz was unable to finish the 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons.  To not address the position would have been stupid.  To have Sudfeld or McCown as the #2 would have been stupid.  None of Flacco, Dalton, or Newton has shown to be a rational choice as a #2 -- and they wouldn't have addressed the position for the next four years as Hurts has.

I'll evaluate the pick if/when Hurts needs to play QB as the starter.  Would I have made the pick?  Nope -- but it's not as though there wasn't any rationale for the pick.

So I'll ask you this, isn't it more "stupid" to not worry about having enough starting weapons , before you worry about the back-up quarterback?  Also in all honesty a second round pick quarterback probably isn't going to win you many games anyways if he has to start. But imagine a 2nd round d- back or running back or even a freaking guard?

Are we saying having Wentz as QB requires us to also have a #2 QB that is also considered a starter?

 

I see that the Hurts pick discussion keeps cropping up, and rather than continue to engage I am going to re-post my reaction to the pick after it was made.  The major thing that has changed since I wrote this is that our franchise QB has gone from NFL MVP to be in 2017, and then carry-the-team-to-playoffs-by himself in 2019, to the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in 2020.  You could have a chicken or egg discussion on this, but I won't.  The bottom line that remains in my opinion is the Hurts pick was not only unjustifiable, it was absolutely insane and remains so.

From my post in May....

Quote

I waited all week to write anything further on the blog.  I've seen the media blitz by Howie Roseman earlier this week, attempting to justify the Hurts pick.  Admitting that is was "uncomfortable" to speak with Carson, and acknowledging that the vast majority of fans aren't happy, are good signs.  Perhaps they indicate a chance, albeit small, for some understanding of the mistakes made here.  Though, it is too late to correct, and there are various other signs of serious concern.  The comments around "accumulating value," " Quarterback Factory" and others are just beyond the scope of anything I thought the Eagles brass would have been capable of after the last few years. 

 

I'm just going to document here what I think the Eagles did, how big of a mistake it was, and why.  

 

Hurts Pick - A Deeper Dive

 

This post will look at the overall implications and impact of the pick.  This is NOT A POST for those that are searching for reasons to justify the pick of Jalen Hurts in the second round and rationalize it.  I would encourage anyone who would rather take that approach to not read any further.  

 

I've previously shared several articles analyzing the pick, and specifically refuting the various claims made by the Eagles on this pick.  This is a good summary of that, and I won't waste time restating these points:

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2020/4/26/21236656/philadelphia-eagles-2020-draft-jalen-hurts-howie-roseman-excuses-quarterback-oklahoma-carson-wentz

 

Instead of rehashing these same obvious points, I will try to document what I haven't seen *fully* explained yet.  Again, I expect much of what I'll say here to be obvious to many of you, as long as you aren't in the mode of trying to rationalize.

 

How to Undermine Your Franchise Quarterback

 

When a team is fortunate enough to have a franchise quarterback, success is dependent on building around that quarterback.  Commitment to supporting the franchise quarterback and facilitating his success and the team's success must be ABSOLUTE.  Margins are too small, resources too limited, and information too ubiquitous to do otherwise.  You have very few dumb people running NFL teams these days.  You cannot rely on being able to outsmart and out-plan the opposition.  You have to use everything at your disposal in the best possible way, and get a little lucky as well.  Analytics only further level the playing field.  You cannot, under any circumstances, afford to HEDGE against your franchise quarterback (while in his prime) somehow NOT being your franchise quarterback.  Resource constraints don't allow this, and furthermore, any type of hedge will manifest itself into various other issues, all of which are detrimental to the team.  This is why it is not done.

 

The best way to undermine your team and your franchise quarterback is to draft ANOTHER quarterback high in the draft.  This is a risk, a cost, to be weighed and debated seriously at the appropriate point in your quarterback's career, or after the circumstances have dictated that such a consideration is, unfortunately, necessary.  It's a tough call.  Instead of adding starters and key players to invest in your quarterback, replace departed or declining talent, and get ahead of your competitors, you take a guy who, if everything plays out favorably and luck is on your side, will not even PLAY.  Furthermore, you show the world, and especially your team, that you do not TRUST your quarterback, and you may want a DIFFERENT quarterback.

 

What team would do that?  None, right?  Well, until exactly one week ago, this had never been done before.  Never in history has a team had a franchise quarterback, in his twenties, entering a franchise level compensation 4 year deal, taken a quarterback in the 2nd round.  That would go against everything and anything the team stands for at that point in time.  Who would do that?  No one would.  No owner would allow it!  Even owners that do not "mettle" will step in when they see something happening that presents undue risk or falls short in basic strategic vision.  To be honest, I am shocked that Lurie did not step in here, as I thought he had learned enough over time to be that kind of owner.  

 

When the proposition was raised to Lurie, the owner and CEO of a multi-billion dollar organization, this is how I would have expected him to react.  "What?  Wait, did we not just commit the largest amount of guaranteed money in NFL history to our current quarterback, who is young, entering his prime and talented, and with your full buy in and recommendation?  And now you are in my office, not even a year later, telling me you want a different quarterback high in the draft?  I need to understand this, who wants this and why?"  (I need to understand the thought process and decision making, so I can identify who specifically I need to fire and replace ASAP.)

 

Now that this has actually happened, many/most of the team's players have serious questions.  Whether they get asked, or not, the questions are now there.  Why did they do this?  Is something wrong with Carson?  If they invested that high of a draft pick at the expense of other good players in this new kid, they expect something out of him, right?  They must not trust Carson.  Is Carson hurt again?  Is he too injury prone?  Do they think this kid is a better prospect than Carson?  Is the plan for him to take over in the next year or two?  I guess they thought this was more important than adding a key weapon, a key defensive player, or someone that could come in and help us win with Carson at QB.  I'm a veteran trying to win another super bowl.  How does this help me this year?  Next year?

 

For those who would say "it's just pick 53," or "it is just a second round pick," once you understand that they compared the player they took to Russell Wilson, and to Lamar Jackson, this argument falls apart quickly.  When you compare a quarterback you just took in the draft the current NFL MVP QB as well as the likely runner up, are you talking about a player that is being selected to be a backup?

 

I see someone has at least written about the obvious point, that this confirms the Eagles doubts about Wentz (despite the recent long term financial commitment):

https://94wip.radio.com/blogs/joe-giglio/philadelphia-eagles-unsure-about-carson-wentz-jalen-hurts

 

More recently, Shiel Kapadia at the Athletic has come around to this analysis, although he remains confused as to the Eagles story and response continues to evolve:

https://theathletic.com/1780643/2020/04/29/kapadia-what-the-jalen-hurts-pick-says-about-how-the-eagles-view-carson-wentz/

 

"Carson, what is your reaction to the Eagles taking Hurts?  Did they talk to you about it?  Do you see yourself as a mentor?  Will you teach him what you know?  Does having a young, highly drafted QB behind you make you think that maybe the team wants to go in a new direction?  What about the fact that they passed on some very good prospects to take him?"

 

"Jalen, when did you think the Eagles had serious interest in you?  Have they told you that they see you as a starter?  Were you disappointed to come to a team with a young starting QB who just received a big contract?  Do you see yourself as a starter?  What are they going to do to develop you here, did you talk about how many reps you will get and sharing the load with Carson?"

 

How to Call Your Quarterback's Leadership Into Question

 

These last couple of years have been somewhat unique for Carson Wentz as a QB, and therefore, leader of the Eagles.  He was drafted to be the quarterback of a team that was blessed with some very good players and several vocal veteran leaders.  Malcolm Jenkins, Jason Peters, Brandon Graham, Lane Johnson, Fletcher Cox among others all have significant voices.  Last year, on All or Nothing, we wintessed how Wentz came into his own, leading the team and a rag-tag group of backups (on offense) to the playoffs, against all odds.  Two of the major team leaders, arguably the biggest, in Jenkins and Peters, are gone, paving the way for this to truly become Wentz's team.

 

The best way to undermine your quarterback as a leader, and his standing with the team, is to not ONLY select a new quarterback early in the draft, but to talk about what a "great locker room guy" and "great teammate" the new quarterback will be, and how you look forward to his contributions in this area.  If you choose to talk about a ROOKIE BACKUP QUARTERBACK having a big impact on your CULTURE, you have nailed it.  Wait, we are drafting another quarterback to come in here and change our culture?  What about our culture needs to change and why?  I guess the new guy is the guy now?

 

The Quarterback Factory

 

This characterization will go down in history, along with comments like the "Gold Standard," as unbelievably arrogant and completely lacking in self awareness.  First of all, why would a team ever admit to desiring to be in the business of "producing" quarterbacks, like at a factory?  Furthermore, what about the current Eagles front office and coaching staff is indicative of Quarterback development, outside of Carson Wentz?  We all thought that the GM had learned so much, especially on his year off tour, and the major lesson was it was about building a TEAM and not just compiling talent.  What is a Quarterback Factory?  Is it part of building a championship team?  Is having 3 starting quarterbacks better than having one?  What was that famous saying again?

 

Is a quarterback controversy good for a team?  What happens when you invest in quarterback at the expense of other positions?  How many quarterbacks are on the field at once?  How many reps do they get in practice?

 

What about becoming a Quarterback Factory to sell the quarterbacks for draft picks?  Does this happen often?  Outside of the AJ Feeley example from long ago, when have the Eagles done this?  What about other teams?

 

What About Having "2 guys on the field who can throw the ball?"

 

The Eagles staff loves to be "innovative" on offense.  This new idea, as discussed by Press Taylor and now referenced by others, is getting "two guys on the field that can throw the ball."  So what does that mean?  The Eagles are going to run a significant number of plays with two quarterbacks on the field?

How is that going to work?  Carson under center, Hurts in the backfield?  Hurts out wide, motion into the backfield?  Carson lateral to Hurts, who throws downfield?  Hurts in the pistol.  Ohhhhh... who is going to throw the ball?  You have no idea, man!  How do you stop it??!   There is a reason that on NFL passing plays, the ball comes out in less than 3 seconds.  To forecast this change in the game is to suggest that some kind of trickery or misdirection will lead to having a second "quarterback" can touch the ball and then get a pass off is highly optimistic, at best.  Something less than that, at worst.

 

Great teams may implement a few **** plays, and may call a few during a season.  They don't attempt to re-invent the offense around a concept that is loaded with additional risks and flaws.  Especially in today's practice limited world, and more so in the current environment, where no one knows when teams will be allowed to practice again.  If you don't have faith in your franchise quarterback to be the one throwing the ball, then by all means, take a new quarterback in the draft.

 

Taysom Hill on Steroids

 

The Eagles really took Hurts because they have been observing the effectiveness of the Taysom Hill plays run by the Saints.  They want their own Taysom Hill, only better, and will implement a new package for him that will be Taysom Hill on steroids.

 

There are a few major differences between Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts that are worth remembering:

• Taysom was an undrafted free agent, and was willing to do anything to contribute and make a team.  He caught on with the Saints and they got creative with his abilities.  He was not a draftable/viable NFL QB prospect.  He was not a second round pick investment.
• Taysom Hill ran a 4.4 at the combine. He played special teams, receiver, and running back.  Jalen Hurts is a good athlete, but not nearly the same.  He ran a 4.6 - fast, not *that* fast.  He does not have the same skill set as Taysom.  Some will say he throws better than Taysom, that may be true, we will see.  But he is not the same kind of "weapon."  I would agree he is more of a quarterback, and he can run the ball some.
• Jalen has different goals and expectations than Taysom.  He expected to be drafted, was drafted high, and wants to be a starting quarterback.  His actions have demonstrated this.

 

Jalen is not Taysom.  Jalen has a different skill set and expectations than Taysom.  The story that came out about Jalen lining up as a "straight RB" is also interesting.  Do we believe that is correct?  There was a kid from Ohio State available at 53, may have been a pretty good addition to the backfield.  How would Jalen react to becoming a "straight RB?"  We know he is not going to line up at WR, in the slot, or do many of the things that Hill does.  He will be able to run the same type of option plays from the QB position.  Which everyone on the field will know is coming.

 

What kind of team takes a player for a gadget role in the second round, when they have so many other needs?  Not a smart team.  That kind of irresponsible drafting is far outside of anything that any GM who knows how to build a team would do, under any circumstance.  These are the kind of things you do later in the draft.

 

How Does This Work for Hurts?

 

Hurts has been drafted by a team with a 27 year old franchise quarterback, entering a new contract.  His team has indicated a desire to implement a Taysom Hill package for him (on steroids), and wants to bring him into their Quarterback Factory.  How excited is this guy right now?

 

As a second round pick, would he be content to become a gadget player?  Or will he be worried at all about realizing his dream to become a starting NFL quarterback?  How many reps will he get as a quarterback?  Will he be supportive of a Taysom Hill type role?  How is he going to be developed?  What is his path to becoming a starting quarterback?  Do you think that he will be content, for the next several years, if he is getting limited reps, maybe some option type plays, and/or is typecast as a gadget player?

 

How did he react when he lost his job at Alabama?  Did he stay put, and was he content to come in and run some option plays to give Tua a breather?  Or did he switch programs to where he could have the most success as a quarterback?

 

Long Term Value of Highly Drafted Backup QB

 

Teams that have franchise quarterbacks don't draft other quarterbacks high to be backups, especially because the draft actually is not "all about value, and taking players that have the most value."  It should be about building the best possible TEAM, but again, that concept was most certainly NOT learned, despite prior assurances to the contrary.  

 

Good teams with franchise quarterbacks don't take these other quarterbacks high in the draft for "value" because:

1. they don't have time or reps to develop them and maximize their "value"
2. if they don't play, they can't and don't "build more value" as in for a potential trade
3. the relative value to taking a player at another position/opportunity cost of doing so when your team is already competitive and needs all available resources
4. the time value of the picks is too important to those with the privilege of being in charge at the current time
5. it is rare, very rare. that a team trades a quarterback for "higher" draft return than the initial pick(s) used

The "financial impact" of taking a high draft pick, let's say a second round pick, in cap savings has been grossly overstated and is being used as part of a litany of excuses for the pick.  Yes, the Eagles have overspent on backups, especially in the recent past.  League wide, the cost of a reasonable backup in most instances is not substantially more than the second round pick; certainly the savings relative to the overall cap are nominal, at best.  Even in instances where the team is inclined to spend more than usual on a backup, the viability of the veteran backup and likelihood of success with the veteran backup is significantly greater the young player in the vast majority of situations.

 

Who Should Be the Backup Quarterback?

 

If Carson were to go down again at some point this season, what quarterback would give the Eagles the better chance of winning?  Would it be Jalen Hurts, with whatever assumptions you can make about his development, usage, and reps, along with his particular skill set and upside?  Would it be Nate Sudfeld?  Or a veteran quarterback that was or is available?

 

When a team is a true contender, which prior to this disastrous decision, I had expected the Eagles to be, I would argue that in ALL cases, you want to have a veteran quarterback on your team as your backup.  Perhaps Nate Sudfeld, with his several years of experience in the system, and some flashes of competence in the past, could be that guy.  Personally, I would have looked to sign someone with more experience, even with some cap allocation associated with it.  

 

Falling Behind, One Draft at a Time

 

I'm not spending much time discussing what Jalen Hurts is as a QB prospect.  That is subjective at this point, though I'll state my opinion for the record, even though I don't care if they took Joe Burrow, it doesn't change the basic issue I have with what they did.  I personally don't think Hurts has much of a chance of being very good as an NFL starting QB, and admit on that point I could be wrong.  When you watch his film, what special skills do you see?  Vision, poise, arm, etc?  I don't see any of it, I'm sorry, but I don't.  I see a guy that lost his job at Alabama to a freshman because he was essentially a good runner as an option QB, he can make one read and then looks to run, but has an awkward motion and mechanics, and isn't a great passing quarterback, even by SEC standards.  I don't see how he projects to be a top level QB in the NFL.  The Eagles have compared him to Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.  He may be a great kid, and he is clearly a "winner," a team guy, a tough player and so forth, that is great.  He put up great numbers at Oklahoma.  I would encourage anyone who has not to go look at his film and then formulate your own opinion.  Don't just go on what you have read or heard.  Quarterback is the easiest position to have a reasonable opinion as a knowledgeable fan.  You usually know it when you see it.  Go watch him.  For comparison, watch some of Carson's film from the Bison days.  Then for extra credit, go watch Russell Wilson at Wisconsin and tell me you see ANY comparison between how he plays and how Hurts played in either of his schools.  Russell was "short," but he was a tremendous player and passer.

 

None of that evaluation has anything to do with this post.  This post is about the true cost and implications to the Eagles of making this decision.

 

While the Eagles were taking a quarterback in the 2nd round (backup?  gadget player?  new franchise qb?), the rest of the league and most certainly the division was getting better.  Each of the division rivals got a lot better.  This is on the heels of the Eagles poor, perhaps very poor, overall drafting in the last 5-6 years.  When you aren't getting better, you are getting worse.  Look at the rest of the NFC East drafts.  Each one of them added guys that will help immediately and probably for the long term.  It is hard to say the Eagles did that.  We hope Reagor is the right fit (As I said at the time, I think it was absolutely wrong to pass on Jefferson), but many of the picks are/were head scratchers.

 

Baldy is a pretty smart football guy.  He is also generally very positive and favorable to the Eagles.  His comments on this draft:

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/eagles-draft-brian-baldinger-missed-boat-analytics-jalen-reagor-justin-jefferson-jalen-hurts-carson-wentz-packages-kvon-wallace-starter-20200428.html

 

Here are just a few of the players that the Eagles could have taken with pick 53.  Think about the impact any of them could have had this upcoming season and for the next few.

• Denzel Mims - imagine Mims and Reagor -- there were those on here that wanted Mims in round 1!
• AJ Epenesa - possibly best DE in draft after Chase Young; high floor player 
• Jeremy Chinn - freak athletic saftey, Malcolm is gone BTW
• Kristian Fulton - fast potential starting CB from DB University
• Logan Wilson - tell me this guy is not a long time starting MIKE in the NFL?  With good athleticism and great instincts? could we use that?
• Ashtyn Davis - possibly the most range of any safety in the draft; could be useful on a team that is burned deep often
• J.K. Dobbins - anyone watch Ohio State?  How about this guy with Sanders this year

 

Whatever you think of Hurts, and even if you disregard all of the problems the Eagles caused making this pick, they could not AFFORD to take a QB with this pick.  This was a kind of luxury pick that they don't have the money to cover.  This is the proverbial guy going out and buying a car when he can't afford his rent payment.  Nice car buddy... now you will be living in it.

 

Marcus Hayes made a salient point in a column yesterday.  The Eagles brass drafts like they have no accountability, no fear of ever being fired.  The word is hubris.

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/nfl-draft-eagles-jalen-reagor-jalen-hurts-howie-roseman-doug-pederson-20200430.html

 

Summary

 

To summarize this, as succinctly as I can:

• The Eagles made a monumental (and obvious) mistake in drafting Jalen Hurts
• The draft pick indicates that the Eagles are not committed to Carson Wentz, even after giving him a massive guaranteed money extension
• Not being committed to your franchise quarterback is an insane position for a team to take, and will deteriorate quickly
• Like it or not, their choice of Hurts will now lead to many questions, of Carson, Jalen, the coaches, and the team, all of which will be negative
• This selection, like it or not, fractures their relationship with Carson as the intentions are obvious, regardless of what words are exchanged and statements are made by all parties, including Carson
• Because Carson is in place now with serious long term dollars committed, outside of a major injury, there is a decent chance they will not have the time or opportunity to develop Jalen appropriately.  Best scenario for Jalen is Carson gets hurt again soon.  If Carson plays well, Jalen's development will be limited at best, sub-optimal at worst (for him)
• If Carson continues to play well enough, and remains healthy, Jalen's role and development path are unclear; something he is unlikely to be happy about (just look at his college history for an example of how he may handle)
• Jalen does not have the same skill set (esp speed) as Taysom Hill, and is unlikely to flourish in a similar role; as the coaches have said, he is coming in as a quarterback
• You do not draft "gadget" players in the second round; for reference, Taysom Hill was an UDFA
• The concept of putting "two guys on the field that can throw the ball" is not new, and while the Eagles staff may have new, innovative ideas on how to implement this, they are unlikely to amount to more than "gadget" plays that have a nominal impact on the teams success.  At worst, the concepts may not work at all, and may result in sub-optimal game outcomes that could have been avoided.
• The Eagles could not afford to take a pick for an "insurance policy" at quarterback when they have so many other needs
• The Eagles passed on a likely starter in a deep draft to take a "backup" quarterback
• The Eagles were much better served procuring another veteran backup, if in fact Sudfeld is not up to the task
• The cap implications and "value" of saving money on a backup quarterback have been grossly overstated
• While the Eagles were drafting backup quarterbacks and "fast" players, the rest of the NFC east had outstanding drafts and addressed needs
• The General manager is talking about Quarterback Factories and "taking players that have the most value;" clear indications he did not learn anything on his hiatus, or has quickly reverted back to who he is; senior, competent personnel leadership is needed
• Regardless of who the GM and/or coaches wanted, the owner should have been able to see what was happening and prevent this disaster.  The fact that he did not prevent the high level strategic mistake indicates that he needs to delegate this important responsibility to someone else.  Someone like a Joe Banner, who came out and said he would not have made the pick.  He needs help as he should have seen this and squashed it, as 31 other NFL owners would have done.

I've said what I wanted to say.  Maybe in a few years, we can look back and say "wow, John was so wrong" as Carson is out of the league and Jalen is hoisting his first Lombardi in midnight green.  Unfortunately, I think it will be a very different outcome.