Special Teams blog

[mattwill]

Interesting observation from Roob today …

Veteran punter Brett Kern had an under-the-radar terrific game Saturday night, his best since he joined the Eagles six games ago. Kern averaged 43.0 yards and actually has the statistical oddity of having a higher net average – 44.0 - than gross average thanks to the Giants having negative punt return yardage. Kern dropped his three punts on the Giants’ 7-, 9- and 12-yard-lines, which was huge. All three of his punts wound up at the 12-yard-line or deeper. In his first five games as an Eagle, Kern punted 10 times and had one inside the 20 with a 40.8 average and a 36.6 net. Kern had been pretty terrible since replacing injured Arryn Siposs, but he was tremendous Saturday.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

I think "tremendous" is a bit of a stretch, although I'll admit it was easily his best game. In my view, he was okay rather than terrible. And it still looks like he takes forever to get rid of the ball. I'm very worried about getting a punt blocked.

[mattwill]

3 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I think "tremendous" is a bit of a stretch, although I'll admit it was easily his best game. In my view, he was okay rather than terrible. And it still looks like he takes forever to get rid of the ball. I'm very worried about getting a punt blocked.

Roob is prone to hyperbole.  Hopefully this is a sign that Kern is finally shaking off the rust, and will start kicking instinctively rather than thinking through his kicks.  That should speed up his process … hopefully. 

[rrfierce]

He was noticeably better on saturday. Infact, ST in general seems to have stepped up lately.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Giants playoff game. Not a lot.

Brett Kern had his best game as an Eagle. It still wasn't terrific. He punted three times with an average of 40.3 yards and 4.24 hangtime. Two of the three were from Giants territory so it's understandable that his distance was kinda ordinary. None of his punts reached 4.5 seconds. Only one was hit outside the numbers. Jamie Gillan punted five times for the Giants. He averaged about 43.2 yards and 4.71 hangtime. All five had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to the Giants, putting the Eagles at 2-15-1 on the season. Kern is now 0-4-1 in his theoretical 1-on-1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season, Kern is averaging 40.5 yards and 3.99 hangtime. None(!) of his punts in an Eagles uniform have hit 4.5 seconds. 69% have been hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters have averaged 47.6 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds and 58% hit outside the numbers. The Eagles (Siposs and Kern combined) have averaged 43.9 yards and 4.26 hangtime with 32% at 4.5 seconds and 50% hit outside the numbers. Basically we're getting destroyed in the punting game. As in, it's not even close how much worse we've been doing. Kern especially.

As far as get-off time goes, the Eagles were actually a little quicker than the Giants. Gillan is particularly slow, usually around 2.10 to 2.15 seconds from the snap until the ball hits his foot. Kern was closer to 2.0 seconds, which is fine. And yet it always looks like he's about to get a punt blocked. For awhile I've been confused about this, but I think I've come to grips with the reason. I think it's because he's an "old school" type punter. Y'know, big leg extension like Ray Guy. Or the statue that they used to have outside the Vet. Most punters these days don't punt like that, especially guys from Australia like Siposs. They just sort of jab at the ball. So I think it's mostly an optical thing with regards to him barely getting the ball off. We're not seeing the moment the ball impacts his foot but rather the moment when his leg extends afterwards. That being said, Kern definitely is slower than Siposs was/is.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times for the Eagles. He averaged about 66.6 yards and 4.05 hangtime. Graham Gano kicked only twice (yay!) for the Giants with an average of about 70.5 yards and 4.19 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 69.4 yards and 4.10 hangtime. The Eagles as a team are averaging about 69.5 yards and 4.11 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 68.1 yards and 4.14 hangtime. No complaints here. Elliott does a solid job.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt, a short one with an expectancy of about 92%. On the season, playoffs included, he's 21-of-24 from distances with an expectancy of about 19.16. His average attempt distance is only 37.6 yards. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2298, which is tied for 14th in the league and is 0.27 standard deviations above the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2308, which is tied for tenth in the league. That's 0.49 STD above the mean. The league average is a very strong 2285. The standard is 2200. The Top Five Kickers are Gano (2397, 2.42); Tucker (2389, 2.25); Carlson (2373, 1.90); Koo (2351, 1.42); and Gay (2350, 1.40). The Bottom Five(Six) Kickers are Dicker/Crosby (2237, -1.05); Succop (2222, -1.38); Badgley (2220, -1.42); Lutz (2216, -1.51); and York (2184, -2.20).

Other stuff:

* I find it interesting (and sad) that Kern hasn't had a single punt reach 4.5 seconds on the season when through eighteen games Eagles Opponents are averaging 4.53 seconds. That almost doesn't even compute.

* Britain Covey fair caught every single punt. This isn't a complaint but rather an observation. After all, every single Giants punt had great hangtime so there wasn't room to make a play with the ball. I do have an issue, however, and I think it's important. One thing I absolutely hate is making a fair catch when there is no reason to do so. I'm talking about the end of the first half with about twenty seconds to go. You're already up by three touchdowns. Fair catching a ball and then taking a knee to end the half just doesn't make sense. You run a risk -- granted it's a small risk -- of fumbling the punt and giving the other team a chance to score in the closing seconds. Why do it? Why tempt fate? Are you afraid of the ball rolling all the way to the one yard line and then being nailed for a safety on the ensuing play? Really? You think THAT is more likely than a muffed fair catch? No way. Sure, you'd like to think your punt returner is reliable but dammit, just let the ball go in THAT situation.

* Zech McPhearson made a strong openfield tackle on a Kern punt that hit the ground and was picked up by the Giants return man. The resulting stats made that punt look better than it was. It was ordinary, not special.

[mattwill]

Siposs more than likely will be the punter on SB Sunday.  He will fill the vacant roster spot that the NFL opened when they put Josh Sills on the shelf.

[SkippyX]

welcome back, Mr Sipps!

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

I've been sitting on this one for awhile. The 49ers game.

Brett Kern punted five times including one where he was roughed and didn't actually count in the stats, as well as one which may or may not have hit a wire above the field. Those five punts averaged about 35.6 yards and 3.61 hangtime. (That's brutal, folks. Like high school level crap.) None had 4.5 second hangtime. Four were hit outside the numbers. Mitch Wishnowsky punted four times for the Niners. He averaged 40.5 yards and 4.15 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 second mark. Two were hit outside the numbers.

The better statistical day clearly goes to the opposing punter, putting the Eagles mark on the year at 2-16-1. That's horrible, folks. Kern's mark fell to 0-5-1. Disgusting.

On the season, Kern is averaging 39.1 yards and 3.88 hangtime, with NONE of his punts reaching the 4.5 second mark and 72% hit outside the numbers. The Eagles as a team are averaging 45.2 yards and 4.21 hangtime with 29% at 4.5 seconds and 52% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 47.3 yards and 4.51 hangtime with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 58% hit outside the numbers. So on the year, opponents are averaging more than seven yards per punt than Kern with about 7/10 of a second more hangtime. It's a staggering difference that's kinda vomit-inducing when you think about it.

The snap to foot times on punting plays tended to favor the 49ers too. They were right around 2.0 seconds whereas the Eagles were closer to 2.1 seconds, not counting the punt from the one yard line where the snap only went back ten yards so it was guaranteed to be quicker.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times but one of them was a low line drive. His five normal kickoffs averaged about 69.2 yards and 4.02 hangtime. Robbie Gould only kicked off twice. He averaged about 63.5 yards and 3.94 hangtime. On the season, Elliott has averaged about 69.3 yards and 4.09 hangtime. Opponents have averaged about 68.0 yards and 4.13 hangtime. The Eagles as a team have averaged about 69.5 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Kickoffs have been good for us.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with a 91% expectancy. On the season, he's now 22-of-25 from an average distance of 37.4 yards. The league average distance attempt is 39.2 yards. Elliott's Kicking Rating improved to 2299, which ranks fourteenth in the league. The rest of the kicking rankings are the same as before.

Other stuff:

* On the Eagles first punt from midfield, Kern hit a low line drive punt that went into the endzone for a touchback. You have to do better there. You just do. His "aim" was good but the damn thing didn't get enough height to allow Josh Jobe to down it.

* DeVonta Smith was used as a punt returner early in the game. The Eagles have done this before, in situations like this. The plan obviously has been to use Smith when the opposing team is punting from near their endzone. In theory, these should be opportunities for big returns, for potential scoring plays. And Smith has more big play potential than Covey. So the idea is sound. But what I think happened was that Smith had been getting ready for the task when the 49ers were lining up for their third and a mile play. But then they hit a big gain on third down and got the ball all the way out to 26-yard line, a spot where you'd normally have Covey back to field it. But they had already committed to Smith. He didn't field the ball anyway so it all ended up being irrelevant.

* On the Eagles punt from the one yard line, Kern hit a low line drive (what else is new?) that landed at the Eagles 42 yard line. The return man eventually picked it up and gained some yardage, but not nearly as much as he would have if he had come up to field the ball on the fly. My question is, why wasn't he lined up in a position to field a short punt? Did the 49ers even scout the Eagles? Did they not make the astute observation that Kern is terrible and can't punt a ball for distance or height? Why the hell were they lining up like he was this generation's Ray Guy? Questions abound.

* The Eagles kickoff coverage did a poor job on the kickoff at the end of the first half, allowing the returner to get it all the way out to the forty. Bad job. If I had to name a culprit, I guess I would tab Dean and Blankenship.

* Brett Kern was roughed on a punt.

* On the Eagles last kickoff, Zach Pascal made a good play to get to the returner but he failed to wrap him up and he escaped for a decent gain. To be fair, K'Von Wallace made a secure tackle afterwards.

* I'm not certain that the one Kern punt hit the wire. It may have. But it's hard to be convinced when Kern has done almost nothing other than hit low line drives that sail toward the sideline.

* Let's hope that our poor special teams this year doesn't bite us in the ass against the Chiefs. Here's hoping we can dodge one final bullet and then fix our problems next year. Because outside of Elliott, the special teams units need a lot of work.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

It only took me about five months because I couldn't bear the thought of watching this game again. Here's the special teams data and other stuff from the Super Bowl.

Arryn Siposs only punted twice. He averaged about 43.0 yards and 3.98 hangtime. Neither hit the 4.5 second mark. One was hit outside the numbers while the other was not. Tommy Townsend also only punted twice for the Chiefs. He averaged about 48.0 yards and 3.60 hangtime. Neither punt hit the 4.5 mark and neither was hit outside the numbers. Basically both punters had disappointing games. I wonder if the bad field was a contributing factor by somehow preventing them from getting proper footing with their stride and plant and whatever.

The better statistical game goes to Siposs, surprisingly. He had one solid punt and one poor punt whereas Townsend had two below average punts. At any rate, Siposs's record on the year finished at 3-10 while Eagles opponents finished 16-3-1.

On the season, Siposs averaged about 45.0 yards and 4.32 hangtime with 46% at 4.5 seconds or more and 40% hit outside the numbers. Opponents averaged about 47.3 yards and 4.49 hangtime with 56% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers. The Eagles (combined Siposs/Elliott/Kern) season average was 43.2 yards and 4.20 hangtime with 28% at 4.5 seconds and 52% hit outside the numbers.

I still maintain that Siposs is nowhere near as bad as most Eagles fans seem to think, and I believe a lot of the disgust at Kern's poor performance kinda spilled over to Siposs. That, plus the poor punt at the end of the Super Bowl which was not a trend during the season. But whatever. I know I'm not going to change anyone's mind.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times with an average of about 70.7 yards and 4.02 hangtime. Harrison Butker kicked off (excluding the squib at the end of the game) six times. He averaged about 73.0 yards and 3.94 seconds. His average was really hurt by a very low kickoff to start the game. I exclude something I consider to be a "mis-hit" because including kicks like that skews the numbers too much. And the kickoff to start the game was precisely on the border of what I accept.

On the season, Elliott averaged about 69.4 yards and 4.09 hangtime. The Eagles as a team (when you include the one game with Cameron Dicker) averaged about 69.5 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Opponents averaged about 68.4 yards and 4.12 hangtime. Pretty similar across the board, I'd say.

Including the postseason, Elliott made 24 of 27 field goals from distances (37.1 yard line) with an expectancy of about 21.8. So he made 2.2 more than that, meaning he earned the Eagles about 6.6 points over value. His final Elo Kicking Rating was at 2302, which ranked eleventh in the league. Eagles Opponents finished the season with a 2288 rating, which would rank sixteenth in the league. The Top Five and Bottom Five kickers remain the same as before.

Other stuff:

* Britain Covey had a nice punt return towards the end of the first half.

* The bad punt by Siposs was exacerbated by terrible punt coverage. If you're looking for someone to blame, try Zach Pascal, T.J. Edwards, and maybe Josh Jobe. It was a horrible play all around and it might have been the difference in the outcome. It certainly played a huge part.

* It's difficult to get to a Super Bowl. Really difficult. And it's even more difficult to get to the Super Bowl with the better team, which is what we did. So objectively the odds of getting back again are not exactly stellar. Makes me appreciate 2017 even more.

* Thanks @BigEFly for help on the one punt I had trouble with.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Since it's only the preseason, I'm not going to go into any real depth here. And I won't even bother doing anything with the kicks and punts of the opponents.

Arryn Siposs punted twice with an average of about 38.0 yards and 4.78 hangtime. His first punt was from Baltimore territory so distance was never going to be a "thing" on that play.

Ty Zentner punted once for about 45 yards and 4.10 hangtime. I thought the mechanics of that punt were a little slow, although when I tried timing his touch-to-toe time, it wasn't that bad. But overall, it was a slower than normal process.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times but one was an intentional line drive. His three legit kickoffs averaged about 67.7 yards and a stellar 4.44 hangtime. Kicking in August has its benefits!

Zentner kicked off once for about 72 yards and 3.81 hangtime. Respectable for a punter for sure.

Elliott made only two of three field goal attempts, hitting from 45 and 49 and missing from 46. The expectancy based on those distances is about 2.06. So he was a little below the standard. He also made his only PAT. The snaps on a couple of those kicks weren't good. Zentner was the holder on the miss.

Other random stuff:

* I thought Trey Sermon didn't show much of a burst on kickoff returns but he did display some power and tackle breaking ability. I'm not sure he's the future there but I'm sure he's a better option than Quez Watkins who seems to only want to run sideways on his returns, often barely getting it to the twenty yard line.

* Greg Ward was his usual self on punt returns. And that's not a comment of praise. Once again he allowed a punt to hit the ground and bounce for an additional eight yards. He's done that exact thing so many times over the years that it is beyond annoying. Yes, I trust Ward's ball security but the dude gives up hidden yards all over the damn yard. Frustrating.

* Mekhi Garner (Eagles fans will no doubt call him Gardner if he makes the team) made some good plays. He made a solid tackle on a kickoff and he forced a fumble on a punt that was recovered by Lovato.

* Zech McPhearson returned a couple punts late in the game and seemed somewhat competent. Both of those punts had amazing hangtime so he wasn't really in position to make anything happen. But maybe he'll be an option on occasion in the future.

* Still not impressed with the Eagles kickoff coverage.

[EaglePhan1986]

The term "special teams” should only be used when mariota is on the field 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

I've been sitting on this for a couple of days now.

Browns game.

Ty Zentner punted six times if you include the free kick after the safety and calculate it the way I normally do...as a punt from the thirty yard line. He averaged about 39.8 yards and 4.44 hangtime. His numbers for both games were 40.6 yards and 4.39 hangtime. Not what you're looking for in a guy who's trying to win a job from an incumbent.

Jake Elliott kicked off twice, averaging 63.0 yards and 4.36 hangtime. Hangtime on August kickoff tend to be amazing and nothing like what you'll see during the season, especially in outdoor games late in the year. Through two games, he's averaging 65.8 yards and 4.41 hangtime. It looks to me like there is a desire to kick short and force other teams to return the ball. Gives them a chance to evaluate kick coverage.

Zentner kicked off twice with an average of 68.5 yards and 4.30 hangtime. Good. His two game average was 69.7 yards and 4.14 hangtime. No issues there really. The kid can kick off. Good for him.

Jake Elliott made a field goal from 56 yards as well as a PAT. Through two games, he's 5-of-6 on overall attempts and 3-of-4 on field goals. The expectancy on field goals is about 2.53, so he's plus .47. The expected points he should have earned is about 9.38 and he's earned the Eagles 11 points. Above standard. Absolutely what we anticipate from a veteran in the prime of his career.

Didn't even bother to make any observations about the return game or coverage game.

Oh, and Zentner was waived a couple days later. Siposs will handle punting duties tonight. My guess is that he gets waived on Tuesday and is then added to the practice squad so that he'll be able to be activated for the first three games "for free". At that point a decision would have to be made. As for me, I'm fine with keeping him.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Colts preseason game.

Arryn Siposs punted three times with an average of about 41.7 yards and 4.68 hangtime. His preseason average was 40.2 yards and 4.72 hangtime. Distance not great. Height very solid.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times. He averaged about 72.5 yards and 4.10 hangtime. His preseason average was 68.8 yards and 4.27 hangtime.

Elliott made a PAT and two field goals (59 and 52) from distances with an expectancy of about .95. On the preseason, he made 5-of-6 from distances with an expectancy of about 3.48. So he was +1.52 meaning he earned the Eagles about 4.55 points over expected value. Good job.

Other stuff:

* Devon Allen bobbled the opening kickoff (not encouraging) but exploded for a big return. He impressed a bit on some other kickoff returns, displaying good change of direction and quick feet. I didn't care for his tendency to stop and start so much but he definitely showed a knack for accelerating into open spaces. He could be a dangerous weapon as a kick returner. Don't think I'd trust him enough with his ball security as a punt returner.

* Allen also made an excellent play in punt coverage.

* Freddie Swain was given an opportunity in this game as a punt returner but didn't do much. He was subsequently released. Not surprising.

Let's get this season started!!!

[ManchesterEagle]

Nick Sirianni just ruled out Jordan Mailata as punt returner. I'm now convinced more than ever that he reads the posts on this board 🤣

[erformc]

Posted about in in another thread, but I'm struggling to see how we avoid playing a ton of starters (I consider Maddox a "starter") on the "core 4" units, which scares the hell out of me.  As of know the P and PR are going to be PS elevations, so that means 8 guys deactivated on game day. Best guess at those 8:

Fred Johnson
Opeta
Okwuegbunam
Street
Ojomo
Ricks
Ringo
Goodrich or Sydney Brown

Your "core" STers are P.Johnson, Jobe, Elliss and BoSco.  You can't use  OL, DTs, Quez, Penny or Swift on any of those units. Let's look at who's left:

Nolan Smith (rookie)
Barnett (never played ST)
Zaccheous (ST experience)
Goodrich or Sydney Brown (rookie)
S3 Edmunds (not a ST regular since 2019) or Evans (only played 20% of ST snaps over career) 
Stoll (can't use on coverage team)
Calcaterra (can't use on coverage teams)
Gainwell (never played ST)

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Why would you think Stoll can't be used on coverage teams. Pretty sure he's been a regular there. And I believe Calcaterra has done it too.

[erformc]

Stoll has played on the punt team. (He has a whopping 3 career tackles). Calcaterra has no experience on any coverage team. Neither could be on the KO team bc they’re too slow and have zero experience trying to shed blocks, breakdown, or tackle in space. 

[brkmsn]

3 hours ago, erformc said:

Stoll has played on the punt team. (He has a whopping 3 career tackles). Calcaterra has no experience on any coverage team. Neither could be on the KO team bc they’re too slow and have zero experience trying to shed blocks, breakdown, or tackle in space. 

Stoll has played 417 special teams snaps in two seasons. Calcaterra played 85 ST snaps last season. Barnett has 296 career special teams snaps. 

[erformc]

7 hours ago, brkmsn said:

Stoll has played 417 special teams snaps in two seasons. Calcaterra played 85 ST snaps last season. Barnett has 296 career special teams snaps. 

Here's the problem with that - all of Barnett's ST snaps have been as part of the XP/FG block team.  Nearly all of Stoll and Calcaterra's ST snaps have come on the XP/FG team (they are the wings) and as the deep backs on the KOR unit. 

[brkmsn]

2 minutes ago, erformc said:

Here's the problem with that - all of Barnett's ST snaps have been as part of the XP/FG block team.  Nearly all of Stoll and Calcaterra's ST snaps have come on the XP/FG team (they are the wings) and as the deep backs on the KOR unit. 

In the case of Barnett, he used to be a starter on defense that played  a large percentage of the defensive snaps and so his special teams usage was limited to the blocking teams. Now as a reserve in the rotation where they plan on giving him less than 20 snaps per game, he has more time to work with special teams units in practice and have a larger role there. 

[dawkins4prez]

I'm smelling a comeback for Randall Cunningham!

[mr_irie1]

I'm not worried about the field goal unit or the field goal block team or to a lesser extent the punt block/return team. What concerns me the most is the punt and the kickoff defensive units. Hopefully they have it under control and my worries go unfounded. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

27 minutes ago, mr_irie1 said:

I'm not worried about the field goal unit or the field goal block team or to a lesser extent the punt block/return team. What concerns me the most is the punt and the kickoff defensive units. Hopefully they have it under control and my worries go unfounded. 

I think your worries are well founded. It's been the weakest part of our special teams the past few years.

[erformc]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:18 AM, brkmsn said:

In the case of Barnett, he used to be a starter on defense that played  a large percentage of the defensive snaps and so his special teams usage was limited to the blocking teams. Now as a reserve in the rotation where they plan on giving him less than 20 snaps per game, he has more time to work with special teams units in practice and have a larger role there. 

Completely agree with you. My concern about him on the coverage units is his total lack of experience  - and quite frankly, his attitude given that he even has to play ST.  I wouldn't be as concerned if he were surrounded by guys who had experience and proven track records, but as I mentioned above that's not the case. He'll be with lots of guys who are rookies or have little no ST experience in the league. Hell, even our "core" ST guys  - P. Johnson, Jobe, Ellis, and maybe BoSco - are only "core" because they've done it before and not because they have particularly distinguished themselves. The proof in that pudding is that our ST coverage units (that they were on), were not very good.

[brkmsn]

8 hours ago, erformc said:

Completely agree with you. My concern about him on the coverage units is his total lack of experience  - and quite frankly, his attitude given that he even has to play ST.  I wouldn't be as concerned if he were surrounded by guys who had experience and proven track records, but as I mentioned above that's not the case. He'll be with lots of guys who are rookies or have little no ST experience in the league. Hell, even our "core" ST guys  - P. Johnson, Jobe, Ellis, and maybe BoSco - are only "core" because they've done it before and not because they have particularly distinguished themselves. The proof in that pudding is that our ST coverage units (that they were on), were not very good.

I'm not worried about Barnett's attitude at all. Asking to explore a trade is not the same as being a malcontent. Some people just believe it because they don't like him already and want to rationalize their feelings. He wants to play. He wants to be out there. He's an aggressive player which is the mentality most coaches are looking for in ST players. He can see an expanded role and I believe play pretty well on the coverage teams. 

I tried to highlight this perception (that I have) last year regarding our return teams: I don't have any numbers to back it up ... like you say, it's the eye test ... but I feel like the strategy we employ on the return teams is to avoid penalties. I think most teams are trying to teach their players how to "get away with" things that could/should get called and in most NFL games that I watch, there are multiple flags on returns through those games. While we don't seem to give our return specialists much help by creating running lanes, we also rarely get penalties that tack on yardage to the end of punts or take us back half the distance to the goal on kickoffs. 

From a coaching standpoint, I'm not sold on Clay. But he has another year here at least, so I'm hoping to see results. Last year Siposs improved from his previous year, but was still kind of inconsistent. But when he got hurt and Kern filled in for him, I kind of missed him. Covey's first few games as PR were not all that great, but after a few weeks he was regularly improving. There appears to be a lot of turnover on the ST personnel this season, so it's anybody's guess how it will go, but every week that the players we have are able to stay together, we should see improvement if Clay is doing a good job.