49ers debacle.

Braden Mann punted three times with an average of about 51.7 yards and 4.66 hangtime. Two of the three (not his last one) had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds and all three were hit outside the numbers. Mitch Wishnowsky only punted twice (we know why). He averaged about 48.0 yards and 4.55 hangtime. Both were at 4.5 or better and both were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Mann, putting his mark at 5-5 on the season with the Eagles as a team at 6-6.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 46.9 yards and 4.52 seconds with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 48% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 47.0 yards and 4.52 seconds with 60% at 4.5 seconds and 53% hit outside the numbers. Pretty much a virtual tie in terms of the numbers. We're "average" there, I guess.

Snap to foot times were slightly in our favor. Around 2.00 (one was slower) compared to around 2.10 for the Niners.

Snap to foot times on place kicks were comparable. In the 1.25 range for both teams. The Niners were quicker than most teams seem to be. We're always good there.

Excluding the onside kick, which was hit by Mann anyway, Jake Elliott kicked off four times. He averaged about 72.8 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Jake Moody kicked off repeatedly throughout the game. Seven times in total. He averaged about 67.1 yards and 4.06 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.5 yards and 4.17 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 71.4 yards and 4.18 hangtime. Once again, the numbers are staggeringly similar.

Elliott made his only two field goal attempts, from distances with an expectancy of about 1.77. On the season, he's now 21-of-23 from distances with an expectancy of about 17.2. This means he's made about 3.8 more than expected based on the distances of his attempts. This means he's "earned" the Eagles about 11.4 points. His average attempt distance is 40.3 yards, which is about a yard longer than the league average. He's obviously having a strong year.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2342, which ranks seventh (tied) in the league. It's actually the same rating as Justin Tucker, the presumed best kicker in the league. But Tucker has quietly missed more kicks since the second half of last year than you'd probably think. That's about 0.91 standard deviations above the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2293, which would be ranked 19th and is 0.13 STD above the mean. The League Average is 2285. The standard is 2200. The Top Five kickers are Koo (2385, +1.60); Folk (2357, +1.15); Gay (2353, +1.09), Butker (2352, +1.07); and Hopkins (2352, +1.07). The Bottom Five kickers are Moody (2212, -1.16); A Carlson (2207, -1.24); Havrisik (2181, -1.65); Ryland (2164, -1.92); and Ammendola-PS (2118, -2.65). Havrisik might be on the verge of losing his job with the Rams as they just signed Mason Crosby to their practice squad. We'll see. I'm kinda surprised Crosby wasn't picked up earlier. The Texans decision to sign Ammendola rather than Crosby always looked silly. Ammendola is historically a poor NFL kicker, albeit one with a strong leg. Whatever.

Other stuff:

* Deebo Samuel showed contempt for the Eagles kickoff coverage unit by returning a kick from about six yards deep in his endzone. He ended up making a profit on the play, getting the ball to the 27. Patrick Johnson missed a diving attempt at about the twenty.

* Britain Covey was hit just as he made a fair catch. Somewhat of a risky venture on Covey's part. Josh Jobe got beat by the gunner down the sideline.

* On the Eagles first punt, there was a semi-high snap by Lovato. It feels like I'm calling out slightly off target snaps by him every week. Don't be surprised if the Eagles make a move here in the next year or two.

* The 49ers were called for a facemask on a kickoff and the Eagles got to start a drive at the 42. Hooray!

* On the Eagles PAT to make the score 21-13, Lovato's snap was a bit high and inside. Again, I'm seeing concerns with him.

* On the ensuing kickoff, Kenneth Gainwell made a shoestring tackle.

* The Eagles continue to use two deep returners on kickoffs. Boston Scott returned a couple and showed some quickness attacking upfield. However on his final return he tried to bounce it wide and got tripped up at about the fifteen. I hate these slow developing kick returns.

* The Eagles tried some trickery on their onside kick attempt late in the game. Elliott faked it and Mann kicked it. It was kind of a poor effort. (It didn't matter anyway, of course.) I hope we never have to try an onside kick at all but if we do, I think we're better off with Elliott handling it.

Okay, let's do this stupid Cowboys game.

Braden Mann punted once for an "average" of about 39.0 yards and 4.53 hangtime. The ball was not hit outside the numbers. Bryan Anger only punted once for Dallas. His average was about 48.0 yards with 4.82 hangtime. His punt was hit outside the numbers. The obvious "win" goes to the Cowboys, putting Mann's mark at 5-6 on the season. Opponents are now 7-6.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 46.7 yards and 4.52 hangtime with 59% at 4.5 seconds and 47% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 47.0 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds and 54% hit outside the numbers. Virtually identical.

The Eagles were ever-so-slightly quicker with their operation. Both teams were absolutely fine with this. But hell, it's only two punts.

Kickoffs were difficult to interpret. I did the best I could. Jake Elliott kicked off four times with an average of about 74.3 yards and 4.24 hangtime. Brandon Aubrey kicked off too damn many times. His eight kickoffs averaged about 74.5 yards and 4.36 hangtime. Several of them were hit extremely high, including one that was other-worldly. Impressive. Of course that stadium is notorious for the distance and hangtimes generated. Balls absolutely fly there, comparable to Denver. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.7 yards and 4.18 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 71.9 yards and 4.21 hangtime. Again, very comparable.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were telling. The Eagles were their usual selves, coming in around 1.25 to 1.30, which is good. The Cowboys on the other hand were more deliberate, especially on longer attempts. Aubrey is notable deliberate to the ball (let's hope this costs them down the line) on his long attempts. Those were close to 1.45. Kicks can get blocked around the edge on attempts that are that slow. You have to have a special athlete, but it can be done.

Elliott made his two field goal attempts from distances with an expectancy of about 1.3. On the season he's 23-of-25 from distances with an expected value of about 18.6. That's 4.4 above standard, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 13.2 points. That's a great number for twenty-five attempts. His average attempt distance is 40.9. The league average is about 39.5. Aubrey's is only 37.3.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2351, which is 1.06 standard deviations above the mean and puts him fourth in the league. The Rating of Eagles Opponents dramatically shot up to 2328, which wound rank 12th in the league. That's 0.69 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2284.

The Top Five Kickers are Hopkins (2359, +1.18); Folk (2358, +1.17); Butker (2353, +1.09), Elliott (2351, +1.06); and Zuerlein (2350, +1.04). The Bottom Five Kickers are A. Carlson (2203, -1.28); Grupe (2197, -1.37); Havrisik (2196, -1.39); Ryland (2164, -1.89); and Ammendola-PS (2118, -2.62). It looks like Houston's kicker is coming back so we'll probably never see Ammendola kick in the NFL ever again.

Other stuff:

* Once again, an opposing team showed contempt for the Eagles kick coverage by returning a kickoff from halfway in the endzone. The Eagles somehow managed to stop him at the 25-yard line so "no harm no foul". But it's an obvious indication that other teams don't respect us.

* Mann completed a fake punt pass for a first down. That's the first fake punt we've run in at least a decade. For all the hoopla about how aggressive Doug Pederson was, he was actually very conservative on specials, running only one fake in his tenure as head coach. It was a fake field goal against the Vikings. It did not work. Similarly Sirianni has also been conservative in his manner. This was his first "trick" play on special teams. Glad it worked. Disappointed that it didn't really mean squat in the big picture of the game.

* With two very long field goals made by the Cowboys, the Eagles have now somehow "allowed" 8 of the last 9 field goal attempts from 58 yards and beyond. A kick like that ought to be made about a third of the time. Instead, opponents almost never miss when they're absolutely trying to bomb them. It's beyond annoying.

* For what it's worth, I was impressed with an attempt made by Jalen Carter to block a PAT. I have a feeling he's a guy who's going to get a couple of them throughout his career.

* Britain Covey had a very good punt return down the sideline for about eighteen yards. He quietly and consistently makes yardage that other returners wouldn't be getting.

* Josh Jobe was flagged for running into the punt returner on a fair catch. I would say that was as much Braden Mann's fault as it was Jobe's. Though the hangtime was solid, that ball was hit a bit short and the returner just kept coming and coming. And contact inevitably ensued.

* And OF COURSE there's rain in the forecast against Seattle. Sunday will apparently be nice out there, but we're gonna have rain AGAIN on Monday night. Isn't it great that the league switched the dates?

 

Seattle game. Not a lot going on.

Braden Mann punted five times for the Eagles. He averaged about 43.8 yards and 4.45 hangtime. Two reached the magical 4.5 mark. Only one was hit outside the numbers. Michael Dickson only had five official punts but he actually punted six times, with one being negated by a penalty. His six "live" punts averaged about 53.7 yards and 4.88 hangtime, which is fantastic. He's very, very impressive. Five of the six hit the 4.5 second mark (and three were over 5.0 seconds), and five of the six were hit outside the numbers. Dickson was the obvious "winner" in the theoretical battle of punters. This puts Mann's mark at 5-7 on the year. The Eagles as a team are 6-8.

On the season Mann is averaging about 46.3 yards and 4.51 hangtime with 57% at 4.5 seconds and 43% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 47.8 yards and 4.57 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds and 54% hit outside the numbers. Slight advantage for the other team.

The snap to foot times on Eagles punts were as good as usual. Right around 2.0 seconds. Some slower, some quicker. But overall quite good. The Seahawks on the other hand were amazing. Right around 1.93 to 1.95 seconds on most every punt. So in addition to having an amazing leg which hits the ball nearly sixty yards with terrific hangtime and direction, Dickson also has amazingly quick mechanics. Truly impressive work. I hate the Seahawks so it's rather annoying watching them have a punter I really like. Oh well.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times. He averaged about 69.8 yards and 3.87 hangtime. The hangtime was hurt because of one line drive. Jason Myers kicked off five times for the Seahawks. The first kickoff was excluded from the data because it did not meet the requirements for inclusion. Basically it was an intentional short kick so including it would spoil the meaning of the statistics. Anyway, his four good kickoffs averaged about 69.5 yards and 4.16 hangtime.

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.6 yards and 4.16 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 71.7 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Slight edge to the other team but almost identical, really.

The snap to foot times on place kicks were right around 1.30 for both teams. Solid. No issues.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with about a 95% expectancy. On the season he's now 24-of-26 from distances with an expected value of about 19.5. This means he's made 4.5 more than expected, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 13.5 points. Very, very good. His average attempt distance is a robust 40.4 yards, about a yard longer than the league average. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved ever so slightly to 2352, which ranks sixth in the league. That number is 1.14 standard deviations above the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2332, which would rank eleventh in the league. That's 0.80 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2284.

The Top Five Kickers after week 15 are Folk (2361, +1.29); Hopkins (2361, +1.29); Prater (2359, +1.25); Fairbairn (2356, +1.20); and Tucker (2353, +1.15). The Bottom Five kickers (with an asterisk) are Joseph (2217, -1.13); A Carlson (2209, -1.26); Grupe (2206, -1.31); Havrisik (2180, -1.75); and Ryland (2147, -2.30). The asterisk involves the exclusion of punters and running backs who have attempted field goals this year.

Other stuff (not much):

* As mentioned earlier, the opening kickoff by the Seahawks was a short pop-up kick which Boston Scott field and returned.

* The Seahawks were penalized for an illegal batting of the ball on their second punt of the night. It was an obvious infraction, as well as a stupid decision since there was never going to be an advantage to the Seahawks. What I found most annoying was Troy Aikman somehow find it the appropriate moment to **** about the officiating. WHAT THE HELL? Why is calling an obvious penalty something to be criticized? It is the announcers who influence the mind of the populace, and their criticizing good officiating poisons the waters. I like Aikman, but JFC.

* Britain had a couple of solid punt returns.

* Josh Jobe had a very good tackle on a punt.

* I continue to like the way the Eagles drop an extra blocker in the middle of the field on punt return plays.

* I still hate the Seahawks.

It is interesting to look at the ESPN rankings for punters.  Mann ranks 4th in Net Yards per Punt

And 9th in Gross Average Yards per punt at 49.3.

Covey has risen to #2 in Punt Returns

Derius Davis was an excellent Punt Returner for TCU last year in college.  He hasn't missed a beat since coming to the NFL.

One hidden aspect about Covey's punt returning is his ratio of returns to fair catches. A lot of the top guys are fair catching roughly the same number as they're returning. But Covey is returning almost twice as many. He's said in the past that he's not afraid to return a punt that he knows he's only going to be able to get a couple of yards on. Every yard is important. But a lot of other guys are reluctant to do so because they don't want to spoil their average.

Giants game.

Braden Mann only punted twice. He averaged about 54.0 yards and 4.46 hangtime. One (barely) reached the 4.5 second mark. Neither was hit outside the numbers. Although one was negated by penalty, Giants punter Jamie Gillan punted five times. He averaged a pathetic 38.6 yards and 3.53 hangtime. Only one was hit outside the numbers. None reached the 4.5 second mark. Heck, only two of them reached 4.5 seconds. And one was below 3.0 seconds! Ugh. The obvious winner was Mann, putting his mark at 6-7 on the year.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 46.7 yards and 4.50 hangtime with 56% at the 4.5 second mark and 41% hit outside the numbers. Eagles Opponents are averaging about 47.0 yards and 4.48 hangtime with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 44% hit outside the numbers. Pretty much identical.

The snap to foot times for the Eagles were standard for them. Right around 2.0 seconds. One thing I've noticed over years of doing this is that the Giants are very often slower than average. They were downright deliberate. Or I guess I should say Gillan was. There were around 2.10 to 2.15 seconds on their punts. Supposedly Gillan has an injury of some sort, so maybe that explains why he was so slow and ineffective. Whatever.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times. He averaged about 70.3 yards and 4.21 hangtime. Mason Crosby kicked off five times for the Giants. He only averaged about 60.4 yards (roughly to the five yard line) with a somewhat poor 3.91 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.4 yards and 4.16 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 70.9 yards and 4.18 hangtime.

The Eagles kicking operation was right around 1.25 to 1.30 seconds. The Giants were closer to 1.40 seconds on theirs.

Elliott made all four of his field goal attempts. Based on the distances involved, the standard expectancy was around 3.41. On the season, he's now 28-of-30 from distances with an expectancy of about 22.9. This means that he's made 5.1 more than "expected", meaning he's earned the Eagles about 15.3 points. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2359, which ranks fourth in the league. That's 1.19 standard deviations above the mean. The Rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2338, which would rank tenth in the league if it were a single person rather than a collection of dudes. That is +0.84 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2286. The standard is 2200. Very few kickers are ever below the standard anymore. When the standard was created about twenty years ago, about half were above and half below. That's how much better kicking is now vs. then.

The Top Five Kickers are Prater (2366, +1.30); Folk (2362, +1.23); Hopkins (2361, +1.22); Elliott (2359, +1.19); and Zuerlein (2358, +1.17). The Bottom Five Kickers are A. Carlson (2222, -1.05); Joseph (2218, -1.12); Grupe (2206, -1.31); Havrisik (2168, -1.93); and Ryland (2150, -2.23).

Other stuff:

* Fantastic punt return by Britain Covey on the Giants first punt.

* Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott converged to field a kickoff. It was one of those situations where when watching you're not exactly sure who has the ball. Anyway, Gainwell had a pretty decent return out to the 35 or so.

* On a very short field goal attempt, the Eagles had Jack Stoll shift from his wing position out wide. The Giants reacted properly so the Eagles took an intentional delay of game penalty, turning a potential 23-yard field goal into a 28-yard field goal.

* On another Giants punt, Covey came up very aggressively to field the ball on a high bounce. He would up gaining about ten yards. Figuring the ball would probably have bounced for another five yards, his quick thinking probably gained about fifteen net yards. Hidden yardage, man. (I think we all know that Greg Ward would have let that ball roll.)

* On the PAT to go up 17-3, Lovato's snap was off the mark. Mann had to kind of dig it out. I'm pretty sure almost no one but me actually looks at Lovato's snaps so it's not really been widely noted. But I gotta say he's been pretty shaky this year. Nothing dramatic of course, but he's really all over the place. I'll say it again. I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles make a chance next year...or the year after.

* Covey muffed a punt and fell on the ball. Or perhaps I should say that he quickly picked it up. I might have preferred that he actually fall on it. Fortunately he got it cleanly. But what if he hadn't?

* Practice squad call-up Brandon Smith combined with Sydney Brown to make a tackle on a punt.

* Jalen Carter was flagged for offside on a Giants punt, turning a 4th and 6 in to a 4th and 1, which they subsequently converted. He didn't get off the field in time after having hustled to the Giants sideline on the third down play. I guess he didn't run as hard as he ought to across the field. Bad play.

* The worst special teams play of the year happened on the opening kickoff of the second half, as Olamide Zacchaeus inexplicably plowed into Boston Scott causing a fumble which the Giants recovered. The game seemed headed to a blowout and then, bang, suddenly it's a contest again. Just an awful, embarrassing play.

* For the rest of the game, the Eagles fair caught all of Mason Crosby's short kickoffs.

* I didn't love the snap by Lovato on the final Elliott field goal. Kinda high and inside.

* Those were quietly two pretty darn clutch field goals by Elliott in the fourth quarter. 44 and 43 yards are ones you expect to make but they're still kinda in that range where you might miss every now and then. But he drilled them both down the middle. Kudos. That final Giants drive would have had a completely different feel if they were only down five rather than eight. Completely different.

Interesting take by Jimmy Kempski

Eagles' Britain Covey is the best punt returner in the NFL this season

He correctly includes the impact of Covey's low rate of Fair Catches.  The only thing that is missing is the proportions that unfielded/downed punts and Touchbacks are.  By my count the Eagles have been punted to 54 times, plus one having been nulified by a penalty ... the Jalen Carter penalty this week.  Covey has 28 returns and 15 Fair Catches.  There have been 3 Touchbacks and 6 punts that have gone out of bounds.  That leaves only 2 punts that hit the ground and rolled.  Pretty amazing.

Cardinals game stuff. Not a lot in this one.

Braden Mann only punted twice. (The Eagles haven't punted all that much this year, which is actually a sign that the offense consistently moves the ball. And that's a good thing.) He averaged about 58.0 yards and 4.36 hangtime. One had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Neither were hit outside the numbers. The Cardinals never punted. So this is counted as a "tie" for me, meaning Mann's mark on the season is 6-7-1. Opponents are at 8-7-1.

On the season, Mann is averaging 47.2 yards and 4.50 hangtime with 56% at 4.5 seconds and 39% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 47.0 yards and 4.48 hangtime with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 44% hit outside the numbers. Pretty much almost identical.

The snap to foot times on the two Mann punts were a tick slower than usual. I got them at around 2.05 seconds. YMMV.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times. He averaged about 66.5 yards and 4.21 hangtime. Matt Prater had six deep kickoffs for the Cardinals. He averaged about 70.8 yards and 4.34 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.1 yards and 4.17 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 70.9 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Again, pretty much almost identical.

The operational time on place kicks were pretty standard. Right around 1.30 for both teams. Maybe a tick faster for the Eagles on some and maybe a tick slower for the Cardinals on some. But both teams were fine.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expectancy of about 75%. On the season, he's 29-of-31 from distances with an expectancy of about 23.66. He's made 5.34 more than expected, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 16.02 points. His average attempt distance is about 39.7 yards. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2362, which ranks fourth in the league. That's about 1.25 standard deviations above the mean. The Rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2340, which would rank eighth in the league. That's about 0.89 standard deviations above the mean. The fact that kickers against the Eagles would rank in the top quarter of the league is indicative of the Eagles having a string of bad luck. Especially when you consider they play games on grass in the northeast. They're not playing all their games in a dome where kicking is notoriously easy. Yet opponents still kick great against the Eagles. It's sickening. Anyway. The league average is 2286.

The Top Five Kickers are Folk/Prater (2368, +1.35); Fairbairn (2364, +1.28); Elliott (2362, +1.25); and Hopkins (2361, +1.23). The Bottom Five Kickers are A Carlson/Moody (2228, -0.97); Grupe (2218, -1.13); Havrisik-waived (2168, -1.96); and Ryland (2135, -2.50).

Other stuff:

* Lovato made a tackle on a punt.

* Patrick Johnson made a tackle on a punt.

* Ringo and Nolan Smith combined on a kickoff tackle.

* The Cardinals tried a surprise onside kick late in the game which Eli Ricks smartly came up to field. Good play by him. Somehow the Cardinals were flagged for offside even though they weren't. Unless the call was because the kicker's plant foot was across the line on contact, which is something that is always allowed. Super weird call.

* When the other team moves the ball at will and is never forced to punt, it makes for a game without much special teams activity. It's also not fun to watch.

Let's get this over with. The Giants debacle.

Braden Mann punted four times with an average of about 49.5 yards and 4.50 seconds. Two hit the 4.5 second mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. Jamie Gillan punted five times for the Giants. He was amazingly consistent. Almost every punt went the same distance with the same hangtime. Amazing. He averaged about 44.2 yards and 4.48 hangtime. Only one was at 4.5 or more. Four were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 7-7-1 on the season. Opponents finished 8-8-1.

On the season, Mann averaged 47.4 yards and 4.50 hangtime with 56% at 4.5 seconds and 40% hit outside the numbers. Opponents averaged 46.7 yards and 4.48 hangtime with 55% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers. Slight edge to the Eagles, I'd say.

Snap to foot times once again favored the Eagles. They were right around 2.0 seconds on the ones I was able to time. The Giants were around 2.1 with one of them closer to 2.2. I'm still amazed at how the Giants have been "slower than average" for about two decades straight. How does that not get exploited? Or fixed?

Jake Elliott kicked off three times. I did the best I could. It looked to me like he averaged about 70.3 yards and 4.16 hangtime. Mason Crosby is washed. He kicked off six times with an average of about 62.7 yards and 3.95 hangtime. On the season, Elliott averaged 71.1 yards and 4.17 hangtime. Opponents averaged about 70.3 yards and 4.18 hangtime. Overall advantage to the Eagles.

The snap to foot times on place kicks for the Eagles was around 1.30 seconds. The Giants were around 1.40.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt. It was from a distance with about 86% expectancy. On the season, he was 30-of-32 from distances with an expectancy of about 24.5. This means he earned the Eagles about 16.5 points above expected value. His average attempt distance was 39.5. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2363, which ranks third. It's 1.35 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2286. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2320, which would rank 15th. That's 0.60 standard deviations above the mean.

The Top Five Kickers at the end of the regular season were Fairbairn (2369, +1.46); Folk (2368, +1.44); Elliott (2363, +1.35); Hopkins (2361, +1.32); and Tucker (2359, +1.28). The Bottom Five kickers were Grupe (2219, -1.17); Crosby (2218, -1.19); A Carlson (2209, -1.34); Moody (2208, -1.36); and Ryland (2138, -2.59). Four of those were rookies, three of whom were drafted.

Other stuff (not much):

* Patrick Johnson made a tackle on a punt.

* Britain Covey inexplicably allowed a punt to bounce and roll for seven yards. That's Greg Ward territory.

* Excellent play by Josh Jobe to bat a ball from going into the endzone for a touchback. The Eagles ended up downing it at the three. The Giants were offside on the play but it was not called.

If we lose tonight, it might take me months before I get around to doing the game. That's kinda how I roll.

Let's get this over with. Bucs playoff game which I hardly remember at this point except for the fact that it was horrible.

Braden Mann punted five times, if you include the free kick after the safety. He averaged about 48.4 yards (there's a way I calculate free kick distance) and 4.69 hangtime. Four had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers. Jake Camarda punted only three times for the Bucs. He averaged about 42.0 yards and 4.13 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 second mark. Two were hit outside the numbers.

The better statistical game goes to Mann, putting his mark at 8-7-1 on the season. Opponents finished the year 8-9-1. On the year, Mann averaged 47.5 yards (that's real yards, not official NFL stats yards, so don't try to argue with me) and 4.52 hangtime. About 58% of his punts reached the 4.5 second mark. About 40% were hit outside the numbers. Opponents on the year averaged about 46.5 yards and 4.46 hangtime with 52% at 4.5 seconds and 57% hit outside the numbers. Overall, the Eagles (Mann) outpunted their opponents, albeit slightly. Mann had an impressive season.

Jake Elliott kicked off only three times. None on the second half. Ugh. He averaged about 74.3 yards and 4.34 hangtime. Jake Camarda kicked off seven times for the Bucs. Too many times, my friends. Too many times. He averaged about 69.3 yards and 4.38 hangtime.

On the season, Elliott set career highs in both distance (71.2) and hangtime (4.17). Opponents averaged about 70.2 yards and 4.19 hangtime. The 4.19 is a new high mark.

Elliott made a field goal but it was taken off the board so it didn't count. All his numbers remain the same.

The season-ending Kicking Ratings have the Top Five as Tucker (2371, +1.45); Folk (2368, +1.40); ELLIOTT (2367, +1.38); Butker (2363, +1.32); Hopkins (2361, +1.28). The Bottom Five were Crosby (2218, -1.14); Moody (2218, -1.14); Bass (2212, -1.24); A. Carlsen (2193, -1.56); and Ryland (2138, -2.49).

Other stuff that I don't care about:

* Britain Covey muffed a punt and recovered it himself.

* The Eagles took points off the board after an Elliott field goal that would have cut the deficit to fourteen with about twelve minutes left. Instead they opted for a fourth down conversion which failed and kept the deficit at seventeen. I thought that was an error. In hindsight, it didn't matter. We weren't winning that game that night.

* It felt gross doing this work, which kind of explains why it took me about four and a half months.

* The new kickoff rules next year suck. It's going to seriously impact the way I keep kickoff stats.

Yeah, I'll do this. Preseason opener against the Ravens.

Braden Mann punted five times with an average of about 47.2 yards and 4.78 hangtime. One of his punts was actually over 5.4 seconds, which is stellar. Very good game, although I do have to point out the obvious. The kicking/punting game in August is noticeably different than that in the midst of the season. The ball just flies in hot steamy conditions.

I'm not sure how to handle kickoffs this year as far as statistics are concerned. My motif has always been to include only punts that land inside the ten yard line and have a hangtime of 3.0 seconds or more. 95% of all kickoffs in the past have fit, so a look at the data makes sense. But with teams now likely to be trying all sorts of line drive kicks to different areas of the field, the numbers won't really mean anything. So for the time being, I'll continue with what I've always done. As such, Jake Elliott had one kickoff for 62 yards and approximately 3.66 hangtime. He was intentionally kicking it short (you could see his jabbing motion) so it doesn't mean much. Whatever.

In the preseason I never look at opposing punters and kickers. Not worth it.

Other stuff:

* Britain Covey had an excellent punt return of about 27 yards. Spin, balance, ability to make first defender miss. So many of our fans have failed to appreciate him. It's kinda sad.

* On Eagles kick returns, Gainwell got out to the 25, Shipley to the 25, and Shipley to about the 33. Nothing particularly exciting there, although I guess Shipley's last return was encouraging enough.

* Eagles kick coverage was not impressive. On their first kick, the Ravens returner had a huge crease to bust through and took it out to the 37 yard line. I would "blame" Zack Baun the most, as it looked like he tried to circle around a blocker and lost contain. At least I think it was him. I marked it down as number 53, which is his number.

* Ainias Smith was bad on his punt returns. He didn't make defenders miss and he fumbled one that fortunately went out of bounds. What was particularly disturbing was that he had a lot of room on a couple of his returns. On two separate occasions he had nearly twenty yards of space between him and the nearest defender at the moment he fielded the ball and only got four and five yards respectively. And in both cases he failed the make the first defender miss, which is something good return men do routinely. (The first defender rarely makes the tackle. His job is normally to disrupt so that his teammates can make the play.) On another return (the one he fumbled) he circled backwards and barely got back to where he originally was before coughing the ball up. Ugh.

* Jeremiah Trotter had a hard secure tackle on a punt. Impressive eye-catching play. Good to see. Encouraging.

* Ben VanSumeren had a tackle on a punt.

* On a kickoff, Julian Okwara, Jalyx Hunt, and Zech McPherson combined for a tackle. I think it was mostly Okwara however. And that's assuming I read the jersey number correctly.

* I think Jake Elliott rushed both of his missed kicks. It's hard to tell but I would say that his missed PAT was struck about 1.20 seconds after the snap while the one he made was about 1.27 seconds. And his missed FG was at 1.23 whereas the one he made was 1.29. These are exceptionally difficult to time so take it with a grain of salt. It's a danger to be too slow on kicks but there's also a danger in being too quick. There's a Goldilocks medium. I'm not worried.

Patriots preseason game.

Braden Mann punted four times with an average of about 46.5 yards and 4.70 hangtime. One of them was a pooch punt so that lowered the average distance. His combined two game average is 46.9 yards and 4.74 hangtime.

Mann also kicked off in this game and actually did pretty well for a punter. One of the four kickoffs was exceptionally difficult to time but I did what I could. It looked to me like he averaged about 67.5 yards and 4.02 hangtime. Of course hangtime is absolutely irrelevant this year so I don't anticipate tracking it.

I like the idea of Mann doing the kicking off this year rather than Elliott. In most cases. I would assume there would be instances where Elliott would be better served. My thinking is that with the new silly rules, kickers might be in more danger of being forced to make tackles. More likely to be injured. I think we'd all agree that we'd rather see Mann injured than Elliott. Punters can be easily found during the week, at least more easily than kickers. Also, if you had to get through the rest of a game with one of them injured, you'd certainly rather it be Mann. Elliott can punt adequately. I doubt Mann can kick field goals.

Elliott made his only two field goal attempts from distances with an expectancy of about 1.6. Through two games he's attempted six kicks (including PATs) and made 4. The expected value was about 4.7.

Other stuff:

* John Ross returned punts and kickoffs. He smartly let one punt land at around the four yard line. It bounded out of bounds at the two but it was a smart play.

* Ross returned a kickoff to around the 31, and later another one to the 37. Not bad.

* Ben VanSumeren made a secure tackle on a punt.

* Lew Nichols muffed a kickoff and only got it out to about the 22.

* Ainias Smith looked a lot better on punt returns. At least he demonstrated the awareness to field the ball and dart forward immediately. None of that hesitation and run backwards crap that so many guys -- including him -- like to do. I had the impression that he was coached on this very point and I give him credit for making the effort. Maybe I'm assuming too much based on one rep. That being said, he didn't get a lot on his returns. Oh, and he made a smart play by picking up a bouncing punt and darting forward out of bounds. I still don't see anything about him that excites but at least he wasn't the disaster he was in the game against the Ravens.

* Tyrion Davis-Price had an uninspiring kickoff return to the 23 yard line. (Unless it was the other dude wearing #35.)

* The Eagles kickoff coverage unit gave up a huge return. The "suspects" were Brandon Smith (probably the least guilty), Jalyx Hunt (maybe somewhat), and Joseph Ngata (likely the top culprit). The latter seemed to violently step out of his lane leaving a huge hole to run through.

Meaningless Vikings preseason finale.

Braden Mann punted once. He "averaged" 54.0 yards and 4.69 hangtime. In the preseason, he averaged about 47.6 yards and 4.74 hangtime.

Jake Elliott kicked off twice. He averaged about 60.5 yards and 4.08 hangtime. In both instances he intentionally hit it short. His preseason average was 61.0 yards and 3.94 seconds. Virtually meaningless numbers but whatever.

Elliott made his only kicking attempt from a distance with an expectancy of about 79%. Including PATs, Elliott made 5 of 7 kicks from distances with an expectancy of 5.45. The missed PAT certainly impacted that.

Other stuff:

* Violent opening tackle involving Brandon Smith and Jacob Harris. Harris was injured on the play. So much for the new kickoff rules making it safer for players.

* Lew Nichols and Parris Campbell looked rather meh on kickoff returns.

* Cooper DeJean and Zech McPhearson combined to make a tackle on a punt.

* DeJean was back as a punt returner a few times. He returned one about eight yards before getting crushed. He kinda limped as he walked off. I guess he's okay because I haven't heard anything since.

* Ainias Smith returned a punt for about fifteen yards. I was pleased with his immediate forward movement upon fielding the punt. No hesitation. Good to see. After his brutal first game, he's kinda come around. I'm still not sure he's ever going to amount to anything but at the very least we should get a glimpse of him again next preseason.

* I'm not sure how I'm going to chart kickoffs this year. Pretty sure I won't log hangtimes since they're meaningless now. (Also it would save me a lot of time!) I might chart landing spot and subsequent first down spot. That might be somewhat useful data.

5 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

* I'm not sure how I'm going to chart kickoffs this year. Pretty sure I won't log hangtimes since they're meaningless now. (Also it would save me a lot of time!) I might chart landing spot and subsequent first down spot. That might be somewhat useful data.

Yeah, I don't think kick distance or hangtime matter at all at this point. Kickoffs should probably be rated by how close they land before the endzone. But the most important stat (which is a team stat) should be average starting position after kickoff.

Thoughts on Mann’s punts?  Looks like he is getting more height/hang time but not losing distance to my eye.

I did the Packers game this morning. It's a bit easier to deal with not having to time kickoffs. But locating where the ball lands on kickoffs might actually be more difficult because I'm using the TV broadcast and I have the sense that they might use a different angle this year. We'll see.

Braden Mann punted twice with an average of about 51.5 yards and 4.35 hangtime. One was hit outside the numbers. One was over 4.5 seconds (it was actually over 5.0) and one was below 4.5 (actually around 3.6). Daniel Whelan had two official punts but actually punted three times. His three punt average was about 43.0 yards and 5.14 hangtime. All three were hit outside the numbers and two of them had a hangtime of over 5.0 seconds. His final punt -- the one after the offsetting penalties -- had amazing hangtime. Slight edge goes to the Packers on this one, putting Mann's mark at 0-1. He had a good game though.

It looked like the snap to foot times on punts favored the Eagles though it was hard to tell. Around 2.05 vs. about 2.10 for the Packers. Actually on the last Green Bay punt, the snap was a tad high and their timing was off a bit. Closer to 2.20 seconds. Maybe that's why he hit the all so short. Whatever.

I have the impression that Mann is going to handle kickoffs this year. I love this philosophy. If the NFL is going to enact silly rules, you may as well use them to your advantage. Since hangtime is meaningless on kickoffs, all you need is for someone to reliably hit the ball to the goal line. Mann can do that. And I would MUCH rather Mann be exposed to blocking and tackling than Elliott. Jake is far too valuable.

Mann's kickoffs were good. He kicked off six times and hit each one to the endzone. My approximation is that the averaged about 73.0 yards, which is eight yards deep. The subsequent starting average for Green Bay was the 28.5 yard line.

Brayden Narveson kicked off for the Pack. His seven kickoffs averaged about 69.4 yards. The starting average for the Eagles was the 27.0 yard line.

The snap to foot times on placekicks favored the Eagles. They were around 1.25 to 1.30 on their attempts. The Packers were in the 1.35 to 1.40 range.

Elliott made his only two field goal attempts from distances with an expected value of around 1.81. This means he "earned" the Eagles about 0.57 points above expectation. His ELO kicking rating improved to 2369, which ranks second in the league. (For a couple of days there he was the league's highest rated kicker.) He's about 1.22 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is at a remarkable 2292. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2314, which would rank eighteenth. That's about +0.35. The Top Five kickers are Folk (2370, +1.24); Elliott (2369, +1.22); Fairbairn (2368, +1.21); Butker (2361, +1.16); and Boswell (2360, +1.08). The Bottom Five kickers are Bates (2203, -1.40); Reichard (2200, -1.45); Shrader-PS (2200, -1.45); Narveson (2186, -1.67); and York (2157, -2.13). York has since been released by Washington. Frankly I'm surprised they even bothered to acquire him. He's been bad his whole career. Reichard and Shrader are rookies who didn't attempt any field goals in their openers. Shrader is a practice squad call-up. Not sure why Matt Gay was unavailable for the Colts.

Other stuff:

* Jalen Carter was penalized for being offside on a Packers PAT. I appreciate his energy but you have to be smarter than that. Still, I remain impressed with him on plays like this. He does a good job of penetrating and elevating. I suspect he's going to be a guy who blocks a kick or two a year.

* Kenneth Gainwell returned Green Bay's fourth kickoff from deep in the endzone but only managed to get to the 23 yard line. I suspect he was attempting to catch them by surprise. It did not work. Not spectacularly bad but kinda bad.

* There was a double penalty situation on Green Bay's final punt. The Eagles actually gained yardage on the replay. On the first punt, Britain Covey returned the ball to the 29 yard line. On the second he fair caught it at the 33. Gain of four yards.

* The Packers were offside on the Eagles final field goal with 30 seconds left. The Eagles declined the penalty and decided to kick off with 27 seconds left. I might have played that position a bit differently. The Eagles were already ahead at the time, so they had some flexibility in thinking. I'm curious what the analytics might say on this. I'm not sure that accepting the penalty and going for it on fourth and goal from the two wasn't the correct play. If you score, you win the game outright. It's probably a 50% proposition. If you fail it, you're giving the Packers the ball at around their two yard line with maybe 25 seconds on the clock and no timeouts. If they go 98 yards they win. If they go about 60 yards, they'll have a field goal attempt that's about a 50% chance of the Eagles losing. I'm not sure that that equation (25 seconds, 50% on the 4th down, followed by 60 yards, followed by 50% field goal) is worse than what the Eagles chose (27 seconds, followed by 70 yards [the presumed distance they would need after a touchback]). There was also the possibility of simply re-kicking the field goal from two yards closer. It might seem silly to take points off the board but those three extra seconds can be pretty significant in situations of desperation. And the odds of missing the second attempt are about 1%. Food for thought.

* Nolan Smith made the tackle on the final kickoff. I don't blame the Packers for trying to return that from eight yards deep. It's a new kickoff world this year and it was worth a shot to see if they could hit a seam and make something happen. Fortunately for us it worked in our favor.

* I almost forgot. Kelee Ringo was flagged for "offsides" on the Eagles first kickoff. Had to make a correction in the kickoff data. It's correct now.

On 9/10/2024 at 11:57 AM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I don't blame the Packers for trying to return that from eight yards deep. It's a new kickoff world this year and it was worth a shot to see if they could hit a seam and make something happen. Fortunately for us it worked in our favor.

 

What I thought made that decision particularly stupid was that 7 or 8 seconds went off the clock to get to about the same starting field position as the touchback. With about 30 seconds left and an opponent likely to play prevent defense, you have time for a couple sideline throws to gain about 20 yards and set up a hail mary. 

I'm glad they decided to return the kick from that deep. 

Stupid Falcons game.

Braden Mann only punted twice. He averaged about 46.5 yards and 5.04 hangtime. Both were over 4.5 seconds. One (and it is somewhat of an arbitrary call) was hit outside the numbers while the other was not. Bradley Pinion only punted twice for the Falcons. He averaged about 45.0 yards with 5.00 hangtime. Both were over 4.5 seconds. Neither were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his theoretical mark at 1-1.

Through two games, Mann is averaging about 49.0 yards and 4.69 hangtime with 75% at 4.5 seconds and 50% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 43.8 yards and 5.09 hangtime with 100% at 4.5 seconds and 60% hit outside the numbers. Small samples for sure. Not really a lot of punting in either game. We're hitting it farther and they're hitting it higher. But again, small sample size.

The snap to foot times on punts were similar (and good) for both teams. Both right around 2.0 seconds. That's really solid.

Mann kicked off five times. His average kickoff went 70.8 yards (middle of the endzone) and the opposing team's average starting position was the 26.8 yard line. Pinion kicked off six times. He averaged 68.8 yards (nearly four yards into the endzone) with the starting position at 30.5 yards.

On the season, Mann is averaging 72.0 yards with the opponents starting at 27.7. Opposing kickers are averaging 69.2 yards with the Eagles starting at 28.6. Slight edge to the Eagles

The snap to foot times on placekicks significantly favored the Eagles. It almost always does. Their kicks were in the 1.25 to 1.28 range. Atlanta was much slower. Around 1.37 to 1.40 on theirs. The final, long PAT was particularly slow. Closer to 1.45 seconds. Kicks that slow can sometimes be blocked but the Eagles didn't exactly put on the extreme effort you'd like to see in that situation. I'm not sure why.

Elliott made both of his field goals from distances with an expected value of about 1.87. On the season he's now 4-of-4 from distances with an expectancy of about 3.68. So he's basically "earned" the Eagles one point (.32 x 3) above expected value this season. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2370, which is now tied for the third in the league. He's 1.14 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2297, which is well above the standard of 2200. (Kickers have gotten so good over the past decade or so, especially the last two years.) The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2318, which would rank 18th if it were a single person. That is +0.33 STD above the mean. The Top Five Kickers after two weeks are Fairbairn (2394, +1.51); Folk (2372, +1.17); Butker (2370, +1.14); Elliott (2370, +1.14); and Boswell (2366, +1.08). It's weird not seeing Tucker in the Top Five but he's been missing some long kicks of late so that's that. The Bottom Five Kickers are Bass (2208, -1.38); Karty (2208, -1.38); Reichard (2206, -1.41); Little (2194, -1.60); and Narveson (2186, -1.72).

Other stuff:

* Will Shipley returned the opening kickoff to the 33. He also made a good play on an Eagles kickoff that the Falcons returned. He flew down the field and impacted the returner who only got to the 24. There was a penalty on that play that put them back to the 14.

* Britain Covey had a decent return of about eight yards.

* Rick Lovato got away with a poor snap on that final field goal. Nice job by Mann of going low and saving it. In hindsight though, I wonder if the Eagles still lose the game if the Falcons only needed a field goal to tie rather than a touchdown to win. They would play that final drive a lot differently and probably a lot more conservatively.

* I also think it might have been a better idea to go for it on fourth down rather than attempt that field goal. It's probably a 50/50 proposition on the conversion. If you fail, Atlanta has to go about 50 yards to have a remote chance at a tie. Compare that to them needing 70 yards to win. I think those twenty yards are more than offset by the 50% of the Eagles winning on the conversion. Too late now.

* Graham Gano getting injured on the Giants opening kickoff and missing the rest of the game -- severely impacting the Giants and perhaps contributing heavily to their subsequent loss -- kinda proves my previous point about having your punter kick off rather than have your kicker do it. If the league is going to enact silly rules which make kicking the ball high on kickoffs meaningless then teams should react accordingly and made smart business decisions. No need to risk your kicker getting hurt. They are too valuable. End rant.

Just something to keep an eye on after the Saints game - 

When opposing teams punt on 4th and short (or if they punt near midfield) the Eagles  will often keep their regular defense on the field (except for the PR and the jammers) to protect against a fake. This happened twice against NO and on both occasions the Eagles only had 10 guyss on the field. The first time it looked like they were missing a S and on the 2nd they were missing a DE, and Maddox had to come up from S to play DE. If I'm noticing it you can bet other teams are as well. 

Saints game. Not good.

Braden Mann had only one official punt. He "averaged" about 37.0 yards and 4.60 hangtime. It was not hit outside the numbers. Matt Hayball punted four times for the Saints. He averaged about 39.3 yards and 4.79 hangtime. Only one had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds while all four were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 2-1 on the season.

Through three games, Mann is averaging about 46.6 yards and 4.67 hangtime with 80% at 4.5 seconds or more and 40% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 41.8 yards and 4.69 hangtime with 67% at 4.5 seconds and 78% hit outside the numbers. Advantage Eagles with a small sample.

The snap to foot times on punts were kinda interesting. Mann was much slower than usual (he was around 2.15 seconds) on his punt, which could have been the inspiration for the (successful) block attempt on his next punt. The Saints were a shade over 2.0 seconds on their first two and were seemingly intentionally slower (2.16/2.24 or so) on their final two from around midfield.

I love the fact that Mann is continuing to be the kickoff guy this year. It just makes sense. He kicked off three times, which all went for touchbacks. ("F the NFL and their silly rule changes! You aren't going to MAKE us kick returnable balls!") He averaged about 71.3 yards with the average subsequent starting spot at the 30.0. Blake Grupe kicked off four times with a completely different strategy. It looked as though their intention was to kick the ball to precisely the goal line to force teams to have to make a quick decision. He averaged about 64.8 yards with the subsequent starting spot at the 27.0 yard line.

On the season, Mann is averaging 71.9 yards (about seven yards deep) with an average starting spot at the 28.2 yard line. Opposing kickers are averaging about 68.1 yards (about three yards deep), also with an average starting spot at the 28.2 yard line.

The snap to foot times on place kicks were around 1.25 for the Eagles and maybe 1.30 for the Saints. Maybe. We're almost always quicker.

Jake Elliott could/should have had multiple field goal attempts but only attempted one long one from a distance with an expectancy of about 34.2%. (It's easier in a dome/my numbers are based on kickers presumed ability from around the year 2000). He missed. It also looked like he was "too quick". Sometimes you just gotta slow it down (yeah it's risky) on super long kicks. On the season, he's now 4-of-5 on field goal attempts from distances with a combined expected value of about 4.02. His Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2356, which ranks sixth in the league and is 1.04 standard deviations above the mean of 2293. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2322, which would be tied for 15th and is +0.48 STD above the mean. Elliott's average field goal attempt distance is 35.2 yards. Four close ones and one long one.

The Top Five rated kickers are Butker (2379, +1.43); Fairbairn (2375, +1.36); Folk (2372, +1.31); Aubrey (2364, +1.18); and Boswell (2357, +1.06). I have the feeling that Grupe is going to be a regular on this list for a very long time. That's disappointing. The Bottom Five kickers are Bass (2215, -1.29); Karty (2214, -1.31); Bates (2209, -1.39); Little (2199, -1.56), and Narveson (2196, -1.61). With the exception of Bass, it's all newbies whose ratings have yet to really settle.

Other stuff:

* Will Shipley smartly (it seemed) downed a kickoff from about one yard deep. He later returned one from a similar spot and only got to the 24. May as well just take it at the thirty.

* On the Eagles first punt, the Saints put two men on both gunners and had a 4-2 overload on the left side of the Eagles line.

* On the blocked punt, the Saints pulled both of the extra gunners inside and had a 5-3 overload on the left side of the Eagles line. Nolan Smith allowed the outside defender a free lane to the punter. Mann actually got the ball off relatively quickly (it was about 2.0 seconds from the snap to the ball striking his foot) but he couldn't prevent the mishap. Give credit to Smith for quickly assessing the situation and making the tackle (kudos to Mann for getting there at the end too).

* Covey was back there for two Saints punts. One went out of bounds. The other he fair caught. After he was injured, Cooper DeJean took over the role, one which he will probably man for the next month or so. He fair caught one and on the other made a somewhat risky, aggressive move which netted about six yards. I'm a bit concerned about the potential for fumbling, but I also suspect he's going to be dangerous in this role. We'll see.

* As pointed out by the previous post, it looked to me as though the Eagles only had ten men on the field on both of the New Orleans punts from around the Eagles forty yard line. In both instances, the Eagles kept regular defenders on the field to be better prepared in case of a fake but failed to have the proper number. Not exactly a good look.

* The Saints were foolish in my opinion for punting from the Eagles 41 late in the third quarter. Thanks for giving us the ball, guys. Much appreciated.

* Kenneth Gainwell returned one kickoff to about the 23 and another to about the 31.

* When you lose the turnover battle, miss your only field goal attempt, and have a punt blocked, you're probably not likely to win the game. Thankfully that wasn't the case.

Lousy Bucs game. Some stupid plays and one good one.

Braden Mann punted five times (same as the combined first three games) with an average of about 53.8 yards and 4.30 hangtime. Two had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Four were hit outside the numbers. Trenton Gill punted four times for the Bucs. He averaged about 38.8 yards and 4.55 seconds. Three hit the 4.5 mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. Clear win for for Mann, putting his mark at 3-1 on the year.

Through four games, Mann is averaging 50.2 yards and 4.49 hangtime, with 60% at 4.5 seconds and 60% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging 40.8 yards and 4.65 hangtime with 69% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 69% hit outside the numbers. Significant advantage to the Eagles here. Almost ten yards more per punt, albeit with slightly less hangtime. Although Mann's hangtime has certainly been good. No complaints at all.

The snap to foot times once again favored the Eagles. They were at around 2.0 seconds pretty consistently. The Bucs were much slower. Around 2.1 to 2.15. Kinda leisurely, I thought.

Mann kicked off (only) three times. His first kick was pretty short, presumably not intentionally. Anyway, he averaged about 64.7 yards with an average starting spot at the 27.0. Gill kicked off for the Bucs. He had seven (too many) kickoffs for an average of 68.9 yards with the average subsequent starting spot at the 29.6.

On the season, Mann is averaging 70.6 yards with the average starting spot at the 28.0 Opponents are averaging 68.3 yards and an average starting spot of 28.6. Slight edge Eagles.

The snap to foot time on placekicks once again favored the Eagles. Around 1.25 seconds. The Bucs were much slower. Often around 1.40 to 1.45. Curiously their "quickest" one was the one that was blocked. More on that later.

Elliott didn't attempt any field goals so his data remains the same. His Elo Kicking rating remains at 2356, which ranks sixth in the league and is +0.97 standard deviations above the mean. The league standard is 2200. The league average is 2295. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2329, which would be tied for fifteenth. That's +0.54 STD above the mean.

After four weeks, the Top Five kickers are Folk (2392, +1.55); Fairbairn (2376, +1.30); Butker (2374, +1.26); Boswell (2362, +1.07); and Aubrey (2357, +0.99). The Bottom Five kickers are Karty (2216, -1.28); Little (2214, -1.31); Bates (2209, -1.39); Bass (2207, -1.42); and Narveson (2161, -2.16). I doubt Narveson is going to last the year for the Packers.

Other stuff:

* Tristan McCollum false started on the first Eagles punt attempt. I guess we should have known then that it was going to a bad day.

* When the Bucs were preparing to punt for the first time, I actually predicted out loud that Cooper DeJean was going to fumble. I don't know why I had that hunch, but I just did. And sure enough it happened when Isaiah Rodgers pushed a Bucs defender into the returner before the ball got there. It was initially flagged as a penalty but it was changed after discussion. I kinda think the officials ultimately got it wrong. There was some contact, but in no way did it force the impact. I'll say this though. I think DeJean, while innocent on the actual fumble, did contribute a bit with a late fair catch signal. By the time he got his hand up, the gunner was bearing down hard on him and didn't really have much time to change course. A proper, earlier signal and that guy is gonna tail off. Oh well, lousy play all around.

* On the Bucs third PAT, the Eagles put on a very hard block attempt. While Rodgers kinda stood stationary on the left edge, the man on his inside -- McCollum -- fired hard inside and came within a whisker of blocking it.

* DeJean never returned any punts. All of his "other" attempts ended up being fair catches. I kinda questioned the last one with the game just about (but not quite yet) over. You may as well try to make a play there, I thought.

* I hated the Eagles decision to call timeout with seventeen seconds remaining in the first half in order to force the Bucs to punt. What did they think was going to happen? Did they expect DeJean to return a punt ninety yards or something? All you're doing, in my mind, is forcing yourself to cleanly field a punt, after which you're going to kneel down and head to the locker room? What was the advantage. If there is a big play to be made, it is more likely to be in the Bucs favor (fumble) than the Eagles favor (long return). Anyway, sure enough the Eagles botched the play. Kelee Ringo barrels into DeJean. Luckily it hit neither one of them, so no harm no foul. And then Jeremiah Trotter comes flying in and fields the ball. Fortunately he got it cleanly, but there was a genuine risk of him losing control and allowing the Bucs to gain possession. All in all, I think the whole endeavor was silly.

* The only bright spot on the day was the blocked PAT by Rodgers which Ringo picked up and scored two points for the Eagles. I thought it was ridiculous when Tom Brady (who was awful, by the way) suggested that Ringo  "lateral it"! Umm, why? He's super fast, he had the angle on the pursuit guy. If anyone is going to make a play, it's him. And he made a great play, keeping his balance along the sideline and staying in bounds. Great play. And as mentioned earlier, the snap to foot time on that kick was the fasted of the day for the Bucs. About 1.34 seconds. Yeah, great play by both Rodgers and Ringo.

* Will Shipley returned a kickoff to the 27.

* On the Bucs final field goal to go up 33-16, Rodgers nearly blocked it. Good effort.

Browns game.

Braden Mann punted three times with an average of about 49.0 yards (from the line of scrimmage to where the ball landed or was caught) and 4.51 hangtime. Only one had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds and only one (same one) was hit outside the numbers. Corey Bojorquez had a great game for the Browns. He averaged abut 55.5 yards and 4.37 hangtime with two (same two) reaching 4.5 seconds and hit outside the numbers. One of his punts was phenomenal. The game-day advantage goes to Cleveland, putting Mann's mark at 3-2 on the season.

Through the opening five games, Mann is averaging about 49.9 yards and 4.49 hangtime with 54% at 4.5 seconds or more and 54% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 44.3 yards and 4.58 hangtime with 65% at 4.5 seconds and 65% hit outside the numbers. Advantage Eagles, by a considerable margin. Good.

This was one of the rare instances where the snap to foot times on punts did not clearly favor the Eagles. While the Eagles were under 2.0 seconds on their first two punts, their third was slowed by a somewhat high snap. Meanwhile the Browns were generally under 2.0, the lone exception being their first punt which was closer to 2.1.

Braden Mann kicked off five times. They were all touchbacks. He averaged about 72.6 yards with an average subsequent starting spot of 30.0 yards (naturally). Dustin Hopkins kicked off five times for the Browns. He averaged about 67.6 yards (it was obvious he was attempting to induce returns, with the exception being the one at the end of the first half). The average starting spot was the 27.6. On the season, Mann is averaging 71.0 yards/28.5. Opponents are averaging 68.2/28.4. My impression is that the Eagles are simply saying "F it, we'll just blast it and give them the ball at the thirty" while other teams are occasionally kicking it short to force the Eagles to return the ball. So far it's all worked out pretty much the same. Such a silly rule. I laugh.

Jake Elliott made 2-of-3 field goals, with his only miss a block from 57 yards. The expected value of his three attempts was about 1.82, so he was "above standard" on the day (even though his rating went down...because he's much higher than standard and his performance was statistically less than *his* standard). On the season, he's 6-of-8 from distances with an expected value of 5.84. So he's plus .16, meaning he has earned the Eagles about .48 points above standard. The average attempt distance of Elliott field goals this year is at 40.8 which is about a yard longer than the league average, which usually settles in at around 39.0 yards by the end of the year. (Field goal distances are generally getting longer because teams will often bypass mid-range kicks on fourth down in order to go for the first down.)

Elliott's Elo Kicking rating dropped to 2348 (blocked kicks still count as misses, even if it seems unfair) which ranks eighth in the league. He's +0.96 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2285. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2321, which would rank fifteenth. That's +0.54, a statistical measure that proves what we've all noticed -- opponents really seem to kick "well" against us. It's disheartening. The Top Five kickers are Folk (2395, +1.67); Boswell (2377, +1.40); Fairbairn (2375, +1.37); McLaughlin (2360, +1.14); and Butker (2359, +1.12). The Bottom Five kickers are Karty (2216, -1.06); Joseph (2214, -1.09); Bass (2197, -1.35); Narveson (2162, -1.89), and Ryland (2149, -2.08). Ryland was just promoted to the active roster for the Cardinals, by the way. Matt Prater was just put in injured reserve.

Other stuff:

* Isaiah Rodgers replaced Kenneth Gainwell as a kick returner. I was not impressed. He returned several kicks and wasn't anything to get excited about. No real burst. Somewhat hesitant. Meh.

* Ben VanSumeren made a tackle on a punt. Will Shipley did so on another.

* Cooper DeJean appears to be locked in as the punt returner while Britain Covey is injured. He did well. He routinely avoided the first rusher and showed a knack and burst to get outside on the next wave of defenders. Good job. The only concern might be that he fielded a punt at the four yard line, which might not have been the wisest choice. But it was understandable because the punt just kept going and going, forcing him to drift backwards. I think he simply and reasonably lost track. Also, it was such a long punt that he actually did have room to get decent yardage.

* Oren Burks was flagged for holding on one punt return when DeJean took it toward the sideline and he wasn't able to disengage quickly enough.

* There was a low snap on the PAT which put the Eagles up 10-0. I noticed it last year and I'm continuing to notice it. Rick Lovato isn't quite as precise as he used to be. That's just my opinion. He also had a somewhat high snap on the one Eagles second half punt.

* The Browns blocked an Eagles long field goal. Myles Garrett made a simply amazing play by leaping over the Eagles linemen and being athletic enough to keep under control after doing so and getting his arm extended. The snap to kick time on that attempt was the slowest of the day for the Eagles (around 1.35). While not "fast", that isn't abnormally slow either so I wouldn't pin any blame on the snapper, holder, or kicker. I saw a video the other day which suggested that what the Browns did should be illegal. It's currently illegal to use "leverage" to jump over blockers, meaning you can't vault yourself on your opponent's body. But apparently what is being done now is that teammates are "pushing" their opponents downward in order to create space for a teammate to jump. Anyway, great play by the Browns and it turned the game around. That was theoretically a ten point swing in one play at the end of the half. Huge turning point.

* Elliott's next field goal attempt was deflected. The snap to foot time on that one was good (around 1.25) so there's no blame there. At first I thought the edge rusher might have gotten a hand on it (and Jordan Davis could probably show more effort -- it's great being a massive body but maybe you could try to not let the edge guy get around you so easily, even if it's a wide turn for them) but I'm not sure it wasn't one of the guys in the middle who deflected it. That was pretty close. And it was a super important kick too.

13 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Cooper DeJean appears to be locked in as the punt returner while Britain Covey is injured

I paid close attention to DeJean on his returns the last two weeks and I think he has done a good job.  He isn't as quick or shifty as Covey but he is more powerful and has great straight line speed.  Obviously, it will be nice once Covey is back but it feels fine having DeJean back there.

Giants game. There sure was a lot of punting in this one!

Braden Mann had eight official punts but he actually punted nine times with one being taken out of the official stat sheet because of a penalty. Since that ninth punt happened, I'm including it. He averaged about 50.9 yards with 4.34 hangtime. Five of the nine had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Four were hit outside the numbers. Matt Haack punted eleven(!) times for the Giants. (These go to eleven.) He averaged about 47.3 yards with 4.62 hangtime. Nine of the eleven hit the 4.5 second mark. Five were hit outside the numbers. It's a close call but statistically -- according to my formula -- the better game goes to Haack. On the season, Mann is now 3-3 in his theoretical 1 v 1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 50.3 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 55% hitting the 4.5 second mark and 50% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 45.5 yards and 4.60 hangtime with 71% at 4.5 seconds and 57% hit outside the numbers. In effect, the Eagles are hitting it a lot further but their opponents are hitting it a little higher. Advantage us.

As long as I've been tracking these things, it seems like the Giants are always way slower than average with their processes. It's kind of uncanny. Their snap to foot times on punts was generally around 2.10 with some closer to 2.15. The Eagles were right around 2.0 with some in the mid 1.9s. Advantage us.

Jake Elliott surprisingly handled the kickoff duty on the opening kickoff and gave way to Mann for the rest of the game. I wonder what was up with that. Elliott "averaged" 72.0 yards with the ensuing starting spot being the 35.0 yard line. (There was a penalty on the play so his data is skewed significantly.) Mann averaged about 72.3 yards with an average starting spot of the 30.0 yard line. (Every kickoff resulted in a touchback.) Greg Joseph only kicked off twice (yay!) with an average of about 76.0 yards with a subsequent starting spot of 30.0. Again, all touchbacks.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 71.2 yards (about six yards deep) with a starting spot of 28.7. Opponents are averaging 68.7 yards (almost four yards deep) with a starting spot of 28.5. Slight advantage to "them".

The snap to foot times on place kicks also favored the Eagles. The Giants were around 1.35 on their only attempt. The Eagles were in the 1.25 range on three of their four kicks with the final one closer to 1.35.

Elliott's kicking numbers remain the same since he attempted no field goals. His Elo Kicking Rating is at 2348, which ranks eighth in the league. That's 0.97 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2287. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved slightly to 2323, which would rank fourteenth if it represented a single person. The Top Five Kickers after Week 7 are/were Folk (2395, +1.71); Fairbairn (2382, +1.51); Boswell (2381, +1.49); Butker (2359, +1.14); and Dicker (2359, +1.14). The Bottom Five Kickers are/were Joseph (2218, -1.10); A. Carlson-PS (2206, -1.29); Bass (2200, -1.38); Karty (2195, -1.46); and Ryland (2152, -2.15).

Other stuff:

* Oren Burks was inexplicably offsides on the opening kickoff. It looked like he lost his balance when he looked behind him and then turned around. Bizarre.

* Cooper DeJean had several strong punt returns. He's definitely impressive. My one concern with him would be ball security. There were moments in his returns where the ball was being held away from his body, kinda swinging freely. It wasn't blatant but it was there. That's dangerous. I also thought he fair caught the ball a little too often, but that's kind of understandable given the "blowout" circumstances late in the game. I have no real issue with this. Overall, he's been good. I still want Britain Covey to be the primary punt returner going forward.

* The Giants muffed/fumbled a punt out of bounds. It seems like whatever we do, we just cannot get to loose balls.

* Sydney Brown was penalized for intentionally running out of bounds and down the sideline on a punt. Pretty stupid thing to do. On the plus side he made a very secure tackle on one punt.

* Kelee Ringo made a superb tackle on one punt, bringing the ballcarrier down right on the spot. Wonderful play.

* RIP to my cat who died today at the age of nineteen (nearly twenty). He was born right around the time T.O. broke his ankle and became part of the family a couple weeks after we lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Not the most affectionate of cats but he was a really cool dude. It sucks watching animals you love deteriorate and waste away.