The flip side of that question is how much this might help Biden with jews. most jews vote D, so it may not have a huge impact, but there's going to be an impact there as well - outside of Michigan (0.9% jewish) as well as within.

2 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

This will absolutely hurt the Dems in Michigan. Whether it loses them the state may be the real question, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion but it's also not impossible. 

Muslim population is 2.4% in Michigan FWIW. I'd assume that split like 80-20 Dem. I think most who supported Biden but now wouldn't are still unlikely to vote for Trump, but it'll have an impact. 

Biden won the state by just over 150k votes, and 2020 turnout for Dearborn and Dearborn Heights was ~70k combined (of which just under half are Arab American.) There are more in Detroit and the surrounding communities, but the majority are in located those two communities. So even assuming they are a monolithic voting bloc (they aren't, but for the sake of argument let's say they are) that's still not enough to make up the difference all else being equal. Of course, all else is not equal, Trump has been fully exposed as a despicable traitor who will stop at almost nothing to remain in power, has an insane amount of pending criminal charges, and Biden probably won over a good chunk of rustbelt swing voters with his UAW support. 

It's a pipedream, fellas. Trump ain't got a chance here. GA, AZ, and maybe even NV are in play, but not MI.

This article claims the state has 200k registered Arab voters but doesn't give what percentage of them turned out in 2020. It says that they broke for Biden at a 70% clip, which would be 140k, so even if literally every single Arab American registered voter in the state turned out in 2020 (they didn't) and if literally every single Arab American that voted for Biden in 2020 now refuses to do the same in 2024 (a decent portion will still hold their nose and vote for him knowing full well the alternative) it's still not enough to close the gap.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians#:~:text=The state is home to,Middle East and North Africa.

Correction: article said 200k were Muslim with a total of 300k with ethnicity from middle east and North African. Still doesn't matter though, they didn't all turn out for Biden in 2020, and aren't all staying home next year. The math just doesn't add up.

Thank god things occur in vacuums and aren’t potentially large factors among others that could determine people’s behavior and fates in the future.  

47 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

This article claims the state has 200k registered Arab voters but doesn't give what percentage of them turned out in 2020. It says that they broke for Biden at a 70% clip, which would be 140k, so even if literally every single Arab American registered voter in the state turned out in 2020 (they didn't) and if literally every single Arab American that voted for Biden in 2020 now refuses to do the same in 2024 (a decent portion will still hold their nose and vote for him knowing full well the alternative) it's still not enough to close the gap.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians#:~:text=The state is home to,Middle East and North Africa.

that assumes that there isn't attrition elsewhere. 

one other reason Michigan went from being 10k to Trump in 2016 to 150k to Biden was an incredibly high youth turnout in 2020 - 37% of 18-29 year olds voted.

I'd expect that group to still vote heavily for Biden, but I don't know if they'll be as motivated in 2024 as they were immediately after 4 years of the worst president in modern history in the middle of bungling a pandemic.

I'm not freaking out about it or anything, but I think the assumption that MI is in the bag for Biden is the same mistake Hillary made in 2016. 

2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

that assumes that there isn't attrition elsewhere. 

one other reason Michigan went from being 10k to Trump in 2016 to 150k to Biden was an incredibly high youth turnout in 2020 - 37% of 18-29 year olds voted.

I'd expect that group to still vote heavily for Biden, but I don't know if they'll be as motivated in 2024 as they were immediately after 4 years of the worst president in modern history in the middle of bungling a pandemic.

I'm not freaking out about it or anything, but I think the assumption that MI is in the bag for Biden is the same mistake Hillary made in 2016. 

It's true that turnout will be down from 2020 but I expect it to be down across the board, rather than just for Biden. Either way, I'm pretty confident that MI isn't in play. If he doesn't win the state by at least 80k votes, I'll be shocked. 

13 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

It's true that turnout will be down from 2020 but I expect it to be down across the board, rather than just for Biden. Either way, I'm pretty confident that MI isn't in play. If he doesn't win the state by at least 80k votes, I'll be shocked. 

my main concern is this: Trump could look like an unhinged doddering old fool and he'd still get 70M to vote for him, because the right wing base is culty-stupid and devoted to him personally. 

meanwhile Biden - who has done a lot of good things - has parts of his left-wing base that are culty-stupid and devoted to stupid ideas, with zero feelings of loyalty towards Biden personally.

I'm concerned that the morons on the left will throw the baby out with the bathwater. it's hard to motivate Dems to the polls in a good year. 

to me, Biden's best shot is a rebounding economy next year that the normies actually feel, as opposed to being told by economists is good. ideally that has a positive effect on normies that lean either direction.

to be sure, there is a path to motivating the left-base, which now includes a lot more "tired of Trump" right-leaning suburbanites and suburban women who tossed all these M4L nutjobs out in school board elections across the nation. 

but I'm not whistling past the graveyard here.

On 12/8/2023 at 3:48 PM, Tnt4philly said:

MAGA coworker: "The economy sucks.”

Me: "Dude, you make great money, have at least two $50k+ trucks, a nice house in a good neighborhood, and a cabin on a few acres of land up north, what could possibly be wrong with the economy?”
 

MAGA coworker: 🤔 🤔 "well it’s a bunch of BS that prayer is banned in schools, but drag shows are no problem!”

Me: 😳 

0% chance that this is a real conversation. 

 

On 12/10/2023 at 7:30 AM, JohnSnowsHair said:

Most people say their personal situation is good, but they believe others are struggling more.

Negative news gets more engagement than positive news. The media leads people around by their noses.

Trumplicans can't believe the economy is good or improving because it would literally break their brains.

No, it's mostly because the dollar is worth so much less than it was just a few years ago. You can have economists and the white house telling people there was a "record harvest, comrade" until they are blue in the face, but when people go to McDonald's and pay double the price for a big mac meal, all that noise is going to fall on deaf ears. 

I can see why paying a dollar more for a big mac would be deeply upsetting for trumpbots.

Wow, Bidenomics in action! So cool!

 

4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I can see why paying a dollar more for a big mac would be deeply upsetting for trumpbots.

You'll only get mad if they up the price of the kid's meal, I know. 

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

my main concern is this: Trump could look like an unhinged doddering old fool and he'd still get 70M to vote for him, because the right wing base is culty-stupid and devoted to him personally. 

meanwhile Biden - who has done a lot of good things - has parts of his left-wing base that are culty-stupid and devoted to stupid ideas, with zero feelings of loyalty towards Biden personally.

I'm concerned that the morons on the left will throw the baby out with the bathwater. it's hard to motivate Dems to the polls in a good year. 

to me, Biden's best shot is a rebounding economy next year that the normies actually feel, as opposed to being told by economists is good. ideally that has a positive effect on normies that lean either direction.

to be sure, there is a path to motivating the left-base, which now includes a lot more "tired of Trump" right-leaning suburbanites and suburban women who tossed all these M4L nutjobs out in school board elections across the nation. 

but I'm not whistling past the graveyard here.

Not sure on some of those other swing states, but in MI at least, I think Biden's support of the UAW will be more than enough to make up the difference and more. Turnout for Trump will be down too, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop below 70M votes. Then there's also the GOP's self-inflicted wounds due to patchwork legislation being a nightmare for women in some states in a post-Dobbs world. It all adds up to a very grim scenario if you're a trumpbot. Not trying to say it's a stone-cold lock or anything, but barring some unforeseen economic turbulence or foreign affairs disaster, I think Biden's is damn good shape.

Just now, Kz! said:

You'll only get mad if they up the price of the kid's meal, I know. 

Yes, I do have two kids. Maybe one day you'll meet a woman who isn't completely disgusted by the thought of sharing a bed with you, but unfortunately your impotence from low testosterone levels would still prevent you from siring any offspring. Just hate to see it.

Thanks for protecting us from evil moving companies hiring able-bodied young people, Joe!  

3 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

*inarticulate raging noises*

Calm down, little guy, no one is judging you for ordering from the kids' menu. We get it.  

4 minutes ago, Kz! said:

 

That sucks, man. Have you tried any of those supplements Rogan always talks about? Seems like it's worth a shot!

40 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Not sure on some of those other swing states, but in MI at least, I think Biden's support of the UAW will be more than enough to make up the difference and more. Turnout for Trump will be down too, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop below 70M votes. Then there's also the GOP's self-inflicted wounds due to patchwork legislation being a nightmare for women in some states in a post-Dobbs world. It all adds up to a very grim scenario if you're a trumpbot. Not trying to say it's a stone-cold lock or anything, but barring some unforeseen economic turbulence or foreign affairs disaster, I think Biden's is damn good shape.

The issue isn't simply the loss of Muslim voters, which I agree won't swing anything. The issue is that by doing what is right -- supporting Israel -- Biden is alienating a large chunk of the under 30 crowd. Young voters are remarkably stupid (https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4349815-poll-americans-holocaust-myth/) and worthless, and a large chunk of them support Palestine and Hamas (https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/). Over 50% of those 18-24 think Hamas' actions could be justified. 

Quote

 

The only age demographic to show a majority of its respondents saying that Hamas’s killings could be justified were respondents aged 18-to-24 years old. Fifty-one percent of that demographic said Hama’s killing could be justified by the grievances of Palestinians while 49 percent said they were not justified.

 

Now, these people won't vote for Trump. But they may stay home, or vote for RFK Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornell West. Meanwhile, there's not much of anything Trump can do to lose supporters at this point -- they all know he's a criminal, an imbecile and a deplorable human being and they don't care. Hell, that's the reason so many of them love him. Combine all this with the usual apathy surrounding an incumbent, and at this point Trump has to be considered the favorite.

26 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The issue isn't simply the loss of Muslim voters, which I agree won't swing anything. The issue is that by doing what is right -- supporting Israel -- Biden is alienating a large chunk of the under 30 crowd. Young voters are remarkably stupid (https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4349815-poll-americans-holocaust-myth/) and worthless, and a large chunk of them support Palestine and Hamas (https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/). Over 50% of those 18-24 think Hamas' actions could be justified. 

Now, these people won't vote for Trump. But they may stay home, or vote for RFK Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornell West. Meanwhile, there's not much of anything Trump can do to lose supporters at this point -- they all know he's a criminal, an imbecile and a deplorable human being and they don't care. Hell, that's the reason so many of them love him. Combine all this with the usual apathy surrounding an incumbent, and at this point Trump has to be considered the favorite.

Your mistake is thinking people are motivated by voting for someone instead of voting against someone.  Any other Republican candidate would likely edge out Biden, or even handle him him easily in one or two cases, but Trump doesn't have a chance.  I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel.  They'll vote against Trump being the president and all that that entails.  The third party candidates will do what third party candidates do, get less than a percent of the vote.

2 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel. 

Wow a "pretty much guarantee" from Van. You can take that to the bank!

1 minute ago, VanHammersly said:

Your mistake is thinking people are motivated by voting for someone instead of voting against someone.  Any other Republican candidate would likely edge out Biden, or even handle him him easily in one or two cases, but Trump doesn't have a chance.  I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel.  They'll vote against Trump being the president and all that that entails.  The third party candidates will do what third party candidates do, get less than a percent of the vote.

That worked in 2020, but I'm not sure it will again in 2024. If enough of the AOC/Tlaib youth morons decide "Biden's just as bad as Trump," then it is game over. And I applaud Biden for doing what's right as opposed to what is politically expedient. But it easily could doom us to Trump's second term, which will be nothing short of catastrophic. 

Never, ever doubt the stupidity of this generation of young people. 

 

The way Biden's campaign needs to combat this is with abortion. They should be all over this insanity in Texas, tying Paxton to Trump. Every add should remind young women that Trump is the one who tilted the SCOTUS as gave us Dobbs. Run ads of Trump taking credit for overturning Roe non-stop in every swing state.

36 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The issue isn't simply the loss of Muslim voters, which I agree won't swing anything. The issue is that by doing what is right -- supporting Israel -- Biden is alienating a large chunk of the under 30 crowd. Young voters are remarkably stupid (https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4349815-poll-americans-holocaust-myth/) and worthless, and a large chunk of them support Palestine and Hamas (https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/). Over 50% of those 18-24 think Hamas' actions could be justified. 

Now, these people won't vote for Trump. But they may stay home, or vote for RFK Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornell West. Meanwhile, there's not much of anything Trump can do to lose supporters at this point -- they all know he's a criminal, an imbecile and a deplorable human being and they don't care. Hell, that's the reason so many of them love him. Combine all this with the usual apathy surrounding an incumbent, and at this point Trump has to be considered the favorite.

Fair, it could end up keeping turnout youth low enough to be a factor, but I still think it will be counter-balanced for the other reasons mentioned. I was just responding to the initial post that claimed nobody is realizing how much Dearborn, Michigan is going to swing things in Trump's favor, which didn't really make sense based on what I've seen. Of course I could be wrong, and Trump could somehow pull it out in the end, but we'll just have to see how much staying power something like this has a year from now.