3 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

*inarticulate raging noises*

Calm down, little guy, no one is judging you for ordering from the kids' menu. We get it.  

4 minutes ago, Kz! said:

 

That sucks, man. Have you tried any of those supplements Rogan always talks about? Seems like it's worth a shot!

40 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Not sure on some of those other swing states, but in MI at least, I think Biden's support of the UAW will be more than enough to make up the difference and more. Turnout for Trump will be down too, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop below 70M votes. Then there's also the GOP's self-inflicted wounds due to patchwork legislation being a nightmare for women in some states in a post-Dobbs world. It all adds up to a very grim scenario if you're a trumpbot. Not trying to say it's a stone-cold lock or anything, but barring some unforeseen economic turbulence or foreign affairs disaster, I think Biden's is damn good shape.

The issue isn't simply the loss of Muslim voters, which I agree won't swing anything. The issue is that by doing what is right -- supporting Israel -- Biden is alienating a large chunk of the under 30 crowd. Young voters are remarkably stupid (https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4349815-poll-americans-holocaust-myth/) and worthless, and a large chunk of them support Palestine and Hamas (https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/). Over 50% of those 18-24 think Hamas' actions could be justified. 

Quote

 

The only age demographic to show a majority of its respondents saying that Hamas’s killings could be justified were respondents aged 18-to-24 years old. Fifty-one percent of that demographic said Hama’s killing could be justified by the grievances of Palestinians while 49 percent said they were not justified.

 

Now, these people won't vote for Trump. But they may stay home, or vote for RFK Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornell West. Meanwhile, there's not much of anything Trump can do to lose supporters at this point -- they all know he's a criminal, an imbecile and a deplorable human being and they don't care. Hell, that's the reason so many of them love him. Combine all this with the usual apathy surrounding an incumbent, and at this point Trump has to be considered the favorite.

26 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The issue isn't simply the loss of Muslim voters, which I agree won't swing anything. The issue is that by doing what is right -- supporting Israel -- Biden is alienating a large chunk of the under 30 crowd. Young voters are remarkably stupid (https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4349815-poll-americans-holocaust-myth/) and worthless, and a large chunk of them support Palestine and Hamas (https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/). Over 50% of those 18-24 think Hamas' actions could be justified. 

Now, these people won't vote for Trump. But they may stay home, or vote for RFK Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornell West. Meanwhile, there's not much of anything Trump can do to lose supporters at this point -- they all know he's a criminal, an imbecile and a deplorable human being and they don't care. Hell, that's the reason so many of them love him. Combine all this with the usual apathy surrounding an incumbent, and at this point Trump has to be considered the favorite.

Your mistake is thinking people are motivated by voting for someone instead of voting against someone.  Any other Republican candidate would likely edge out Biden, or even handle him him easily in one or two cases, but Trump doesn't have a chance.  I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel.  They'll vote against Trump being the president and all that that entails.  The third party candidates will do what third party candidates do, get less than a percent of the vote.

2 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel. 

Wow a "pretty much guarantee" from Van. You can take that to the bank!

1 minute ago, VanHammersly said:

Your mistake is thinking people are motivated by voting for someone instead of voting against someone.  Any other Republican candidate would likely edge out Biden, or even handle him him easily in one or two cases, but Trump doesn't have a chance.  I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel.  They'll vote against Trump being the president and all that that entails.  The third party candidates will do what third party candidates do, get less than a percent of the vote.

That worked in 2020, but I'm not sure it will again in 2024. If enough of the AOC/Tlaib youth morons decide "Biden's just as bad as Trump," then it is game over. And I applaud Biden for doing what's right as opposed to what is politically expedient. But it easily could doom us to Trump's second term, which will be nothing short of catastrophic. 

Never, ever doubt the stupidity of this generation of young people. 

 

The way Biden's campaign needs to combat this is with abortion. They should be all over this insanity in Texas, tying Paxton to Trump. Every add should remind young women that Trump is the one who tilted the SCOTUS as gave us Dobbs. Run ads of Trump taking credit for overturning Roe non-stop in every swing state.

36 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The issue isn't simply the loss of Muslim voters, which I agree won't swing anything. The issue is that by doing what is right -- supporting Israel -- Biden is alienating a large chunk of the under 30 crowd. Young voters are remarkably stupid (https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4349815-poll-americans-holocaust-myth/) and worthless, and a large chunk of them support Palestine and Hamas (https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/). Over 50% of those 18-24 think Hamas' actions could be justified. 

Now, these people won't vote for Trump. But they may stay home, or vote for RFK Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornell West. Meanwhile, there's not much of anything Trump can do to lose supporters at this point -- they all know he's a criminal, an imbecile and a deplorable human being and they don't care. Hell, that's the reason so many of them love him. Combine all this with the usual apathy surrounding an incumbent, and at this point Trump has to be considered the favorite.

Fair, it could end up keeping turnout youth low enough to be a factor, but I still think it will be counter-balanced for the other reasons mentioned. I was just responding to the initial post that claimed nobody is realizing how much Dearborn, Michigan is going to swing things in Trump's favor, which didn't really make sense based on what I've seen. Of course I could be wrong, and Trump could somehow pull it out in the end, but we'll just have to see how much staying power something like this has a year from now.

7 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

That worked in 2020, but I'm not sure it will again in 2024. If enough of the AOC/Tlaib youth morons decide "Biden's just as bad as Trump," then it is game over. And I applaud Biden for doing what's right as opposed to what is politically expedient. But it easily could doom us to Trump's second term, which will be nothing short of catastrophic. 

Never, ever doubt the stupidity of this generation of young people. 

 

The more I see people confidently posting about how Trump can't/won't win, the more convinced I am that we're in danger of a second Trump term.

Haley would obliterate Biden. Yet the GOP and the MAGA cult will insist on nominating the one guy Biden may be able to beat. It's insane.

15 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

Your mistake is thinking people are motivated by voting for someone instead of voting against someone.  Any other Republican candidate would likely edge out Biden, or even handle him him easily in one or two cases, but Trump doesn't have a chance.  I can pretty much guarantee that almost no one is voting based on the war in Israel.  They'll vote against Trump being the president and all that that entails.  The third party candidates will do what third party candidates do, get less than a percent of the vote.

Right, one candidate made a foreign policy decision they don't agree with, while the other is a literal criminal who tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election. I know kids are dumb as F, but I still think there are enough of them that can figure out what the consequences of their inaction could lead to.

1 minute ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Right, one candidate made a foreign policy decision they don't agree with, while the other is a literal crimianl who tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election. I know kids are dumb as F, but I still think there are enough of them that can figure out what the consequences of their inaction could lead to.

Bet

These last 2 months have shown us all how breathtakingly stupid the under 30 crowd really is

Just now, vikas83 said:

Bet

Already have with Bodog. Maxed it out like I did in 2020. 

Unless you mean an EMB wager... like an avatar bet? If Biden wins MI, I get to pick your avatar for a month, and if Trump wins you pick mine?

29 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Already have with Bodog. Maxed it out like I did in 2020. 

Unless you mean an EMB wager... like an avatar bet? If Biden wins MI, I get to pick your avatar for a month, and if Trump wins you pick mine?

Nah, I'm not betting on Trump. I couldn't live with myself.

Plus, I'll likely be sent to Gitmo so wouldn't be able to collect anyway.

What would any of you give for a President Bartlet?

3 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Nah, I'm not betting on Trump. I couldn't live with myself.

Plus, I'll likely be sent to Gitmo so wouldn't be able to collect anyway.

Oh, I bet on him to win the nomination. Back before he announced he was running when bodog had the odds at 2-1. Seemed like it was a mistake and I was missing something, but apparently people were really high on DeSantis at the time  

edit: bovada, not bodog, name changed 10+ years ago but I can't stop calling it the old name

39 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Already have with Bodog. Maxed it out like I did in 2020. 

Unless you mean an EMB wager... like an avatar bet? If Biden wins MI, I get to pick your avatar for a month, and if Trump wins you pick mine?

What was the max bet? You must have been sheeting bricks before that 2am ballot dump hit.  

1 minute ago, Kz! said:

What was the max bet? You must have been sheeting bricks before that 2am ballot dump hit.  

Max payout was $2.8k so it would reject any wager amount over $700 in the slip. Was even lower this time around.

8 minutes ago, Kz! said:

What was the max bet? You must have been sheeting bricks before that 2am ballot dump hit.  

WGB follows politics and he doesn't have Downs so he probably knew they were going to add in the mail-ins later.

5 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

WGB follows politics and he doesn't have Downs so he probably knew they were going to add in the mail-ins later.

You could have cleaned up if you bet on it, then. Trump became a huge betting favorite the night of the election prior to the ballot dumps. It makes sense because Vegas probably didn't know about how "they were going to add in the mail-ins later." After all, Vegas notoriously does very little research prior to setting betting lines.  

I had a bet on the 2020 election with the senior partner at my firm, and on election night he was celebrating and mocking me because he didn't realize PA and other states counted mail-in last. So we tripled the bet on election night. 

Kz is right, not only did we cheat the electoral system, we also cheated Vegas and made even more money (in addition to what Soros was paying us) by stuffing the ballot boxes until our fingers were bleeding from all those bamboo fiber cuts.

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

I had a bet on the 2020 election with the senior partner at my firm, and on election night he was celebrating and mocking me because he didn't realize PA and other states counted mail-in last. So we tripled the bet on election night. 

Not gonna lie, I was pissed that it was as close as it was. Should've been a massive blowout to send a message to the GOP that the guy is a cancer to the party, but instead it was close enough for them to double down which is exactly what we ended up seeing. F'ing morons.

7 minutes ago, Kz! said:

You could have cleaned up if you bet on it, then. Trump became a huge betting favorite the night of the election prior to the ballot dumps. It makes sense because Vegas probably didn't know about how "they were going to add in the mail-ins later." After all, Vegas notoriously does very little research prior to setting betting lines.  

  The election was stolen because the betting lines changed before all the votes were counted. 

I'm just glad once and for all you've proved this doesn't apply to you

18 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

he doesn't have Downs

 

12 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

  The election was stolen because the betting lines changed before all the votes were counted. 

I'm just glad once and for all you've proved this doesn't apply to you

 

 Slow down, partner. No one said anything about a stolen election. That's crazy talk. It's just a fact that Trump became a huge betting favorite very late on election night prior to the 2am ballot dump which, apparently, Vegas didn't see coming.