With JAX and NYJ picking #1 and 2, and apparently both taking QBs, I decided to check the strategy of terrible teams starting a rebuild by drafting QB #1 or 2 and how it worked out — by work out I mean building a Super Bowl winner.

I had to go back to 1998 to find the 3-13 Colts team drafting Peyton Manning after having the #1 pick due to futility as the last team that it worked for.  SF took Alex Smith #1 after going 2-14 and eventually got to the Super Bowl, but with Kaepernick at QB.  CAR drafted Newton #1 in 2011 after going 2-14 and made the Super Bowl, but they were a one-hit wonder — only went 6-10 the following season. 
 

There have been teams that traded into the top 2 like the Eagles did with Wentz, Rams with Goff, Skins with RGIII, etc., but I wanted to check the terrible teams particularly — who are starting their rebuild by taking the QB.  Generally the results are very poor.  I would even argue that when the Colts took Andrew Luck in 2012 they weren’t nearly as bad as the Jaguars and Jets are now — Manning missed the entire season and they imploded into the #1 pick.

The QBs who end up most successful from this draft might end up being Jones and Lance, especially if good coaches decide to trade up, and they land in good environments.

 

My daily draft roller coaster continues, as of now this is my ideal* draft:

RD1 - Smith

RD2 - Oweh

RD2 (trade up) - Farley

*Will change tomorrow.

12 hours ago, Wentz_Era said:

I brought him up last night because of the potential, when did Oweh get in the 1st round pick conversation?  Late 2nd/3rd rounder IMO.

You should have kept quiet

8 hours ago, ManuManu said:

 

It was a lock for Mac , now sources say it’s between two

these guys need new sources , they have no credibility 

I said from the start you don’t trade 3 , 1s for Jones , and keep Jimmy G and declare Jimmy G the starter , unless you are red shirting the rook , Jones doesn’t need to be rs , it was always Lance IMO 

10 hours ago, ManuManu said:

I hadn’t read much about the Parsons off-field stuff. This seems to go into a little more detail than I had seen previously. It includes Gross-Matos. 

https://fox56.com/news/local/former-psu-football-player-gives-details-on-alleged-hazing-by-teammates

If that's even half true how f'ing dumb are the Penn State Athletic Department and coaching staff to not take that more seriously, if any athletic department on earth should be absolutely zero tolerance squeaky clean on this stuff it's Penn State, when you've got accusations of players slapping the D on younger players and saying 'I'm Jerry Sandusky' that's not youthful exuberance and hazing, god above, how do you not take that more seriously than saying 'man up'.  I mean come on, it's barely ten years ago you were almost shut down for looking the other way. I'm not saying this is another Sandusky situation, but it is turning a blind eye to sexual assault because someone is good at sport, again. 

27 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

It was a lock for Mac , now sources say it’s between two

these guys need new sources , they have no credibility 

I said from the start you don’t trade 3 , 1s for Jones , and keep Jimmy G and declare Jimmy G the starter , unless you are red shirting the rook , Jones doesn’t need to be rs , it was always Lance IMO 

To be honest trading up to 3 and taking Lance or Jones ahead of Fields seems dumb as rocks, Fields is a clear second behind Lawrence as far as I'm concerned it honestly baffles me that people talk seriously about taking a player like Lance especially ahead of him, Lance has one good year for ND who routinely steamroller powder puff opposition in a conference they're too good for,  Fields has put up great numbers in a better conference and College playoffs proper, I just don't get how the NFL is going to ignore that again.

10 hours ago, ManuManu said:

I hadn’t read much about the Parsons off-field stuff. This seems to go into a little more detail than I had seen previously. It includes Gross-Matos. 

https://fox56.com/news/local/former-psu-football-player-gives-details-on-alleged-hazing-by-teammates

He alleges in the complaint that Barber, Parsons, Gross-Matos and did the following to him and certain other players:

• Took their clothes and did not return them.

• Told them they intended to make them "their **** because this is a prison.”

• Wrestled them down and simulating a humping action while on top of them.

• Placed their P in their faces while simulating ejaculation.

• Placed their P on and in their buttocks.

 

What the F, and I mean what the F.

Now I understand why teams are taking Micah off their draft boards.

11 minutes ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

To be honest trading up to 3 and taking Lance or Jones ahead of Fields seems dumb as rocks, Fields is a clear second behind Lawrence as far as I'm concerned it honestly baffles me that people talk seriously about taking a player like Lance especially ahead of him, Lance has one good year for ND who routinely steamroller powder puff opposition in a conference they're too good for,  Fields has put up great numbers in a better conference and College playoffs proper, I just don't get how the NFL is going to ignore that again.

Drafting him on pure projection , Lance or Fields , I think HC and GM are looking for jobs in 3 years  ,you don’t give up 3 first rd picks for them , I have said for months , Wilson would be my choice at QB in rd 1 , Mills late one early second , and if I’m looking for a quality number two , Franks .

8 hours ago, eagle45 said:

The Eagles don't need to have an 11 player draft.  They drafted 10 players to a crappy roster last year and still had to cut 2 of them.

What they actually need is to end up with 3 starters moving forward, 1-2 of whom are high end starters.  Maybe a little ambitious, but they are in dire need of a home-run type draft.

The best way to accomplish that goal is to not trade any lower in round 1 and to use their glut of nearly worthless picks in rounds 5-7 to move a little higher with their 2, 3, 3 picks, maximizing their chances of getting a higher end player in that range.

Everyone likes the excitement of picking talented players in early rounds.  But this team seems to have better success rate on late rounds picks than early rounds.  We can expect Howie to move up and down to capture targeted players.  If we can land 2-3 high-end starters in this draft, from whatever rounds, it would be a good start of the rebuilding process.

9 hours ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I wonder which would shake up the draft more though. There’s always been some doubt it’s Jones but the majority I feel accepted it and played out the draft starting with #4. If it’s really Lance, Jones becomes a wildcard 

I just dont want WFT to get fields

jones seem like a patriot qb

8 hours ago, eagle45 said:

The Eagles don't need to have an 11 player draft.  They drafted 10 players to a crappy roster last year and still had to cut 2 of them.

What they actually need is to end up with 3 starters moving forward, 1-2 of whom are high end starters.  Maybe a little ambitious, but they are in dire need of a home-run type draft.

The best way to accomplish that goal is to not trade any lower in round 1 and to use their glut of nearly worthless picks in rounds 5-7 to move a little higher with their 2, 3, 3 picks, maximizing their chances of getting a higher end player in that range.

I said something similar yesterday.  I'm assuming Ertz gets traded, either to move up or for an extra pick, but for the sake of it let's say he gets them a 5th.  The Eagles will have 12 pick.  This is touted as a 4 round draft.  Use those 12 picks and get 8-9 players like you mentioned.  High end starters, contributors and the future core of this team.

I don't want to hear about how amazing Howie did moving up and down rounds 5-6 adding bottom of the roster guys.

We need players who are ready to come in and either start, play significant minutes and build this team.

 

I wonder what the reaction will be if Dallas takes Horn (pretty likely) and Surtain is still on the board, but we select Newsome. 

 

17 minutes ago, Penn7980 said:

Everyone likes the excitement of picking talented players in early rounds.  But this team seems to have better success rate on late rounds picks than early rounds.  We can expect Howie to move up and down to capture targeted players.  If we can land 2-3 high-end starters in this draft, from whatever rounds, it would be a good start of the rebuilding process.

I would argue that we don’t have much of a success rate on later picks either.  Maybe we do better versus league average later than early.

2 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

I would argue that we don’t have much of a success rate on later picks either.  Maybe we do better versus league average later than early.

When you don't have elite players/great players/above average players on the team it makes it easier for 6th-7th round picks to come in and start.

I find this hoopla over Howie’s draft board to be very interesting.  
 

Take a team that usually drafts pretty well, the Steelers.  If we learned that Tomlin makes a board with his coaching staff, the scouts make a board, their GM makes a board...then the GM synthesizes the information from the 3 and makes the pick...no one would bat an eyelash.  It’s not unreasonable.

Howie Roseman is the freaking GM of the team. It’s sad there is so little confidence in him that the consensus is ‘what?!  You make a draft board?  You aren’t qualified to do that!’

The problem is not that the GM of the Eagles makes a draft board.  The problem is that Howie is the GM of the Eagles.

Interesting that the national reporters were all fed information that Julio Jones is available and the Niners are down to 2 QBs both at the same time. 

Also, it seems like Tyson Campbell is starting to get some buzz as a late first round pick. Both King and Breer mentioned him there.

 

1 minute ago, ManuManu said:

Interesting that the national reporters were all fed information that Julio Jones is available and the Niners are down to 2 QBs both at the same time. 

Also, it seems like Tyson Campbell is starting to get some buzz as a late first round pick. Both King and Breer mentioned him there.

 

Good point. Feels like Falcons are hoping for Trey Lance. 
 

I'd love to keep loading up on top 70 picks whether that's by a modest trade down in the 1st  and/or packaging Ertz and some later picks with 84 and moving up to the low 2nd/high 3rd.

Added an AFC general manager: "The Senior Bowl was very important because that was pretty much the only opportunity to meet with a guy in person, face-to-face and have a conversation. It's the only chance to feel his energy."

Three days before the 2021 NFL draft(April 29-May 1, ESPN and the ESPN App), scouts have suggested buckling up for an event full of twists and turns. The reason: This scouting year was far from normal, so why would the draft be any different?

"It's going to be a crazy-ass draft. Just watch," said a scout from a 2020 playoff team. "After the 12th pick, I feel like it's going to be the wild, Wild West regarding who teams pick. I know scouts who have wildly different grades on players than I do, even more than normal. Less interaction means less groupthink and more surprises. If a team loves a player, they're going to jump the gun to get him."

ESPN spoke with more than two dozen scouts, executives and coaches over the past few months to gauge how scouting has been different because of the pandemic. The lack of access to players, college sources and uncertainties in evaluating players who opted out of the 2020 season were themes, as were concerns about medical evaluations and the difficulty of digging deeper into players' character and work ethic.

"It feels like we know less about this class of players than any class in recent memory," New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis said. "Just because of the COVID restrictions, the restrictions on scouts getting into campuses -- as well as the fact that there were fewer games played in college football this year."

But it wasn't all negative. A large number of NFL personnel relished focusing more on game tape than combine testing. A few enjoyed the "new normal" and hope many of the scouting strategies remain, post-pandemic.

"The technology forced us to realize that the way we approach the game is antiquated. Now you can see that we can have a productive draft or free agency without being face-to-face," an NFC personnel executive said. "We were all taught that you've got to grind 24/7, but the pandemic taught us to be more efficient. The teams that adjusted quickly were successful."

"It also helped you have a better work-life balance. You have to know how to do it both ways -- old-school and new-school. You have to be able to scout if somebody pulls the plug on the internet."

Every team was impacted, for better or worse, based on how their scouting departments adapted.
 

much more below

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31310461/how-scouting-pandemic-turn-2021-nfl-draft-wild-wild-west?platform=amp&__twitter_impression=true

 

Julio won’t bring much in a trade , he will be 33 , I don’t think he is a top 20 WO  at this point , what he have 2 TDs last year ?

Lawrence is no dummy 

: Trevor Lawrence has signed an endorsement deal with cryptocurrency portfolio management app Blockfolio.

The interesting part?

He accepted his "signing bonus" exclusively in crypto, which is already worth more today than when it was deposited on Friday

52 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Interesting that the national reporters were all fed information that Julio Jones is available and the Niners are down to 2 QBs both at the same time. 

Also, it seems like Tyson Campbell is starting to get some buzz as a late first round pick. Both King and Breer mentioned him there.

 

If he’s traded before June 1 it basically is a wash for atlanta and they don’t save any money (actually lose 200k) according to over the cap. Now if they make it and categorized as post June first they save 15.3 mil.  he’s coming off a injury riddled season at 32. Maybe they can get that agreement done with a team before/during the draft or they want the 15 mil of space after June 1st rather than keeping him. They do trade him they really shouldn’t have restructured Ryan’s contract. If they did manage to trade him and draft a QB at 4, next year Ryan has 48 mil cap hit and 40 mil in dead money. I’m guessing they wouldn’t sit the fourth overall pick for two years. And really if you deal away julio feels like you aren’t winning now then you were better off not restructuring Ryan and getting out of that contract now and not when it’s harder next year cause you restructured it. They’d basically have to deal Ryan next year as a post June 1 again but still eat 24 mil in dead money to save 23. And you have to hope Ryan still plays at a high level without julio for the entire season in order to trade him at 37. 

6 hours ago, Alphagrand said:

With JAX and NYJ picking #1 and 2, and apparently both taking QBs, I decided to check the strategy of terrible teams starting a rebuild by drafting QB #1 or 2 and how it worked out — by work out I mean building a Super Bowl winner.

I had to go back to 1998 to find the 3-13 Colts team drafting Peyton Manning after having the #1 pick due to futility as the last team that it worked for.  SF took Alex Smith #1 after going 2-14 and eventually got to the Super Bowl, but with Kaepernick at QB.  CAR drafted Newton #1 in 2011 after going 2-14 and made the Super Bowl, but they were a one-hit wonder — only went 6-10 the following season. 
 

There have been teams that traded into the top 2 like the Eagles did with Wentz, Rams with Goff, Skins with RGIII, etc., but I wanted to check the terrible teams particularly — who are starting their rebuild by taking the QB.  Generally the results are very poor.  I would even argue that when the Colts took Andrew Luck in 2012 they weren’t nearly as bad as the Jaguars and Jets are now — Manning missed the entire season and they imploded into the #1 pick.

The QBs who end up most successful from this draft might end up being Jones and Lance, especially if good coaches decide to trade up, and they land in good environments.

 

The important takeaway here, IMO, is not that these players were necessarily bad picks...it’s that horrific teams can ruin young players, especially qbs, who depend on an OL and weapons.

They may or may not have been bad picks too, but some guys never had a chance.  

Just now, eagle45 said:

The important takeaway here, IMO, is not that these players were necessarily bad picks...it’s that horrific teams can ruin young players, especially qbs, who depend on an OL and weapons.

They may or may not have been bad picks too, but some guys never had a chance.  

So true , you go to a dysfunctional team with bad coaching , you never have a chance 

9 minutes ago, Saltpeter said:

I'd love to keep loading up on top 70 picks whether that's by a modest trade down in the 1st  and/or packaging Ertz and some later picks with 84 and moving up to the low 2nd/high 3rd.

The Eagles have 4 picks in the top 84.  Averaging 1 pick per 21 is pretty great in what looks like a 3 or 4 round draft.  Their ammo after that is:

Zach Ertz

Round 4: No. 123 (From Miami)

Round 5: No. 150 overall

Round 6: No. 189 overall

Round 6: No. 224 overall (Compensatory selection)

Round 6: No. 225 overall (Compensatory selection)

Round 7: No. 234 overall

Round 7: No. 240 overall (From San Francisco)

 

What can we turn that in to?   Can we get another top 100 pick?  5 picks in the top 100 would be great.

-Is it smarter to package up in to the top 10 if Pitts/Chase fall past 6?   It will cost you 84 or 70 and maybe 123 or 150.  If either or both make it past 6 that could get interesting.

-you trade down from 12 to 15/17/20 and pick up maybe another 3rd or 4th?  If Horn/Surtain/Waddle/Smith are gone, I'm trading down.

-Are there any other surprise trade candidates?   Dallas Goedert? Miles Sanders? Josh Sweat? Jordan Mailata? (not saying I want to trade any of these guys, just looking at young, expiring contracts)

 

I don't have a dream scenario anymore.  When they were sitting at 6, I wanted Pitts no question.  Now that we are at 12, I just don't know which direction they should go.  Depends how the board falls for sure.