So after his CPAC speech, I decided to check bovada for their odds on 2024 and surprisingly, Trump's a massive underdog at 8-1. Biden and Harris are split due to the uncertainty there as well. I'm thinking of taking another run here at these current odds with the thought that at least one of them is bound to be elected.

Kamala Harris+450

Joe Biden+550

Donald Trump Sr.+800

8 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

So after his CPAC speech, I decided to check bovada for their odds on 2024 and surprisingly, Trump's a massive underdog at 8-1. Biden and Harris are split due to the uncertainty there as well. I'm thinking of taking another run here at these current odds with the thought that at least one of them is bound to be elected.

Kamala Harris+450

Joe Biden+550

Donald Trump Sr.+800

If Covid is under control and the economy is back, the dems are unbeatable in 2024 whether its Biden or Harris. 

3 minutes ago, Gannan said:

If Covid is under control and the economy is back, the dems are unbeatable in 2024 whether its Biden or Harris. 

Agreed

7 minutes ago, Gannan said:

If Covid is under control and the economy is back, the dems are unbeatable in 2024 whether its Biden or Harris. 

Agreed, and this is by far the most likely outcome. But even taking a more politically agnostic approach, I could normalize my stake such that the payouts are equal and I'd boil down the odds to a wager between one of Harris/Biden/Trump at +180 vs any other candidate.

Basically, it becomes a bet against an unforeseen GOP field challenger beating Trump in the primary and then beating Harris/Biden in the general. So politically speaking, we know that's a long shot, but mathematically speaking, Bovada has that scenario as the favorite. Weird, right?

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

Agreed, and this is by far the most likely outcome. But even taking a more politically agnostic approach, I could normalize my stake such that the payouts are equal and I'd boil down the odds to a wager between one of Harris/Biden/Trump at +180 vs any other candidate.

Basically, it becomes a bet against an unforeseen GOP challenger beating Trump in the primary and Harris or Biden in the general. So politically speaking, we know that's a long shot, but mathematically speaking, Bovada has that scenario as the favorite. Weird, right?

I still can't decide if Trump runs or not. I'm doing an open geo back and forth. On the one hand he's such an ego maniac attention ho, how could he not? On the other hand, losing again wouldn't be very palatable to him because he's an ego maniac. Still a safe bet though. While I think Trump loses if he runs again, he comes closer than any other republican would. 

Trump will run. Bank on it, because that is how he views it. A bank with no need for repayment.

Regardless of the political outcome, the ignorant will send him hundreds of millions of dollars.

Just now, Gannan said:

I still can't decide if Trump runs or not. I'm doing an open geo back and forth. On the one hand he's such an ego maniac attention ho, how could he not? On the other hand, losing again wouldn't be very palatable to him because he's an ego maniac. Still a safe bet though. While I think Trump loses if he runs again, he comes closer than any other republican would. 

I think he runs but if he doesn't then one of the other Trump's will run instead.  He is getting pretty old and he'll be 78 before the Nov '24 election.

1 minute ago, Gannan said:

I still can't decide if Trump runs or not. I'm doing an open geo back and forth. On the one hand he's such an ego maniac attention ho, how could he not? On the other hand, losing again wouldn't be very palatable to him because he's an ego maniac. Still a safe bet though. While I think Trump loses if he runs again, he comes closer than any other republican would. 

Yeah the more I look at it, the more I scratch my head. Sure seems like bovada has botched these lines and left us with an opening. 

2 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Trump will run. Bank on it, because that is how he views it. A bank with no need for repayment.

Regardless of the political outcome, the ignorant will send him hundreds of millions of dollars.

But even if he doesn't run, will the GOP challenger actually win the general? And if so, at such a heavy favorite?

10 minutes ago, Gannan said:

If Covid is under control and the economy is back, the dems are unbeatable in 2024 whether its Biden or Harris. 

You mean if Americans live in a shared reality where the economy is fine and there is no imminent mismanaged existential threat to our lives, then democrats will win.

 

9 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

But even if he doesn't run, will the GOP challenger actually win the general? And if so, at such a heavy favorite?

I don't see how they could.

Although the number of Republicans who oppose Trump is pitifully low, a third of the part, maybe, anybody not Trump will lose.

WIll that dissenting 1/3rd rally behind Trump? Depends on how liberal the next couple of years turn out.

8 minutes ago, Gannan said:

I still can't decide if Trump runs or not. I'm doing an open geo back and forth. On the one hand he's such an ego maniac attention ho, how could he not? On the other hand, losing again wouldn't be very palatable to him because he's an ego maniac. Still a safe bet though. While I think Trump loses if he runs again, he comes closer than any other republican would. 

I think he ultimately will not run, but he will publicly tout the idea up until early 2024. He needs the attention, and the "will he or won't he" coverage will be nauseating. He'll make all the GOP lemmings come to Mar-A-Lago and pay fealty to him, keep acting like he is going to run...and then decide not to sometime around the end of January. He won't endorse anyone -- he will make them all go out and suck up to him non-stop. He will even hint at jumping in later in the process because all the candidates are "losers" or "low-energy," but he won't. He will remain the 800 pound orange gorilla hovering over all of it. 

He won't run because he is lazy and will get more attention and ego stroking by making all the candidates praise him. Losing again isn't a consideration -- in is warped mind, he didn't lose in 2020.

You guys are putting a little too much effort into his decision making.   As long as he is POTUS or running for POTUS, he can continue to frame the legal cases against him as genuinely sticky political with hunts.  IMHO, if he isn't in jail he's running.  and even if he is in jail, he still might be running.

Ugh, bovada dropped their limits on special props again. 

1 minute ago, dawkins4prez said:

You guys are putting a little too much effort into his decision making.   As long as he is POTUS or running for POTUS, he can continue to frame the legal cases against him as genuinely sticky political with hunts.  IMHO, if he isn't in jail he's running.  and even if he is in jail, he still might be running.

Running for President takes effort. 

Contemplating running for President but not actually doing it gets you attention, fealty and the ability to claim all legal cases are political hit jobs because the Democrats fear you as a candidate. It's perfect for a lazy narcissist. 

24 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

I think he runs but if he doesn't then one of the other Trump's will run instead.  He is getting pretty old and he'll be 78 before the Nov '24 election.

Yeah my wife thinks he will be too old/out of it or in too many legal entanglements. I hope she's right. Watching Don JR coked out of his mind running for president would be comedy gold. 

20 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

You mean if Americans live in a shared reality where the economy is fine and there is no imminent mismanaged existential threat to our lives, then democrats will win.

 

Q anon loons won't sway the election. Trump won in 2016 by getting normies to take a chance on him over Hillary or to just stay home. No one that didn't vote for Trump is going to say in 2024 "You know, I really miss Trump as president" 

The only way the GOP can win in 2024 is if the Democrats manage to shoot themselves in the foot yet again. If Biden decides not to run, nominating someone like Warren would give the GOP a very good chance. A hard left turn is the GOP's only chance...so it is likely exactly what the Dems will go. 

2024: AOC vs. Don Jr.

We all lose.

15 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The only way the GOP can win in 2024 is if the Democrats manage to shoot themselves in the foot yet again. If Biden decides not to run, nominating someone like Warren would give the GOP a very good chance. A hard left turn is the GOP's only chance...so it is likely exactly what the Dems will go. 

2024: AOC vs. Don Jr.

We all lose.

I still think Biden runs in 2024. No one I know agrees with me. 

something my wife and I have noted in the area.

do any of you guys share the dissonance we feel when seeing "Don't Tread On Me" flags flying next to a "Thin Blue Line" flag? same house, same people...

28 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The only way the GOP can win in 2024 is if the Democrats manage to shoot themselves in the foot yet again. If Biden decides not to run, nominating someone like Warren would give the GOP a very good chance. A hard left turn is the GOP's only chance...so it is likely exactly what the Dems will go. 

2024: AOC vs. Don Jr.

We all lose.

AOC is at +2500

Junior is at +5000

Monieeez! 

25 minutes ago, Gannan said:

I still think Biden runs in 2024. No one I know agrees with me. 

I think it is 75/25 he runs.

56 minutes ago, Gannan said:

I still think Biden runs in 2024. No one I know agrees with me. 

I think he runs.

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

something my wife and I have noted in the area.

do any of you guys share the dissonance we feel when seeing "Don't Tread On Me" flags flying next to a "Thin Blue Line" flag? same house, same people...

My poor "Don't Tread" flag is folded up and stowed away since the Tea Party kooks adopted it. Been tainted ever since.

Arizona RNC went to the Supreme Court today to defend laws that suppress minority votes:

Essentially, the Republican lawyer is arguing they cannot win elections when Navajo, Latino, and others show up to vote.

The case concerns Arizona voting laws that are unfairly discriminatory. For more information about Brnovich v. DNC see LINK