13 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Yes the estimate was 40% and that was six weeks back. The updated weekly data won’t show updates for those figures. I do think I’ll get a new R-number and for sure updated curves for weekly deaths and results vs expected overall mortality. They also have stuff like confirmed cases but those are so dependent on levels of testing I’ve mainly ignored those for Sweden as the testing has varied widely. Admission to COVID ward rates might be interesting as well. 

Absolutely. I'm at work now so can't fully respond to your last post but definitely post that data when they come out. It will be interesting to see population numbers instead of just immune data in positive cases only. 

57 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

Yes I understand the immunology. I also know historically a TCell response has been (at least) moderately long lasting in previous SARV. My point was the percentage. The early studies showed 20% of people had antibodies and around 30% who were COVID positive but antibody negative had TCell response. Which comes out to about a total of 45% of positive patients having evidence of immune response. Which is at the absolute lowest end of herd immunity estimates on a population level, let alone just in those with the disease. 

Now I believe DrPhilly has more up to date data on 40% total out of Stockholm, which would be much closer to where we would consider seeing any type of immunity. 

Thanks for clarifying.  The papers I found on initial search mentioned individuals being identified with inherent T cell immunity based on hypothesized previous exposure to COVID-like antigens from other coronavirus infections. 

Here come some figures from this week's report.

In the graphs to follow the horizontal access will be by week number.  Week #10 started on March 2nd.  This past week is #35.  The data will go thru to the end of week #34 to last Sunday.  Lighter shades over the last few weeks indicate that the numbers aren't final yet and will likely rise.  Since I've been following these the rise has been slight.

 

 

This one is for number of new patients admitted to a COVID ward per week.  The number of patients is the vertical access and the week number is the horizontal access.

 

 

This one is for deaths "with COVID" per week.

 

Positive tests were at 3% over the latest periods and that is down.  No updates on antibody tests or t-cells.  I don't think we'll hear much about that until maybe the end of September after any impact from the key July 1 - Aug 15 vacation period can be seen.

 

R-number from mid February thru to about 10 days ago.

 

4 people at RNC in Charlotte test positive for COVID, as GOP defends safety measures

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article245322115.html

Probably no way they could have known this was possible.

 

https://www.ajc.com/news/university-of-alabama-orders-faculty-to-keep-quiet-about-outbreak/7ZAHSQPNDRBINBEF3A6YAVMPRE/

2 hours ago, Toastrel said:

4 people at RNC in Charlotte test positive for COVID, as GOP defends safety measures

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article245322115.html

Probably no way they could have known this was possible.

 

The Death Cult required more heroes.

I don't even look anymore. I know we're not great but at least we're not Florida bad. I'm holding onto that lol

 

I'm a week late with this one:

https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/08/82320-covid-19-update.html

COLLEGE REOPENING

Dr. Paul Offit

Director of Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital

 

"They're going to want to party, they're going to want to drink, they're going to want to hang out either on-campus or in off-campus dorms or in private residences.  They're at an age where they consider themselves to be invulnerable.  I think you're asking for something that's not going to happen",  It will be incredibly difficult to get students to understand that this is a life and death situation.  If those in charge can't get students to understand a relatively simple concept, then expectations of a higher education are bleak.  Are parents wasting their money?

 

Attitudes like Dr.Offit's are part of the problem we are witnessing on campuses across the country.  His expectations for discipline, responsibility, accountability and the ability to construct successful systems are low.  His apparent willingness to tolerate bad behavior is unfortunately not part of the solution.  What "they" were going to want to do was no secret.  Behavior necessary to remain viral free was also no secret.  There was ample time to design systems and inform "them" of the workings of these new systems.

 

These students are the same age groups that have made up the bulk of our military for over 200 hundred years.  For sure the military succeeded through a system that is different.  If a College education is important, Dr. Offit and the Deans of Colleges should have studied and implemented systems that depend on accountability and responsibility. Systems should have been designed for success instead of failure.  Their ineffectiveness is shameful. Throwing their hands up and crying woe is me, or issuing idle threats was not effective.  Irresponsible behavior was expected, the time for threats was prior to arrival on campus, consequences should have occurred on day one.  The lack of consequences reinforced irresponsible behavior.  Educators across the country have been a major disappointment.  So much for a "liberal education".  We are witnessing the aftermath of a  lack of appropriate, effective planning.  Look familiar?  School leaders are not politicians, so what is their excuse?  It is terribly simple - if it can't be done with a mask or physical distancing, it cannot be done safely.  With all their degrees and letters after their names they couldn't grasp this concept.

 

There are  players in the NBA and NHL of college age, yet we see them succeeding virus free.  I am sure all of these young people entertain thoughts of life before Covid.  The common thread is the expectation of accountability and responsibility and a structured system supporting the expectations.

 

VACCINE

 

On Friday, Pfizer Pharmaceutical announced that they expect to have a vaccine ready for authorization by October.

There are now 7 vaccines in phase three trials.

The progress that pharmaceutical companies have made in developing, testing and preparing for distribution of a safe, effective vaccine is truly amazing.  Very few anticipated this. 

 

CONVERSATIONS WITH DR. BAUCHNER, EDITOR, JAMA

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, MD, PhD, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine

Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy

(had major input into the Affordable Care Act)

 

Dr. Emanuel believes that by the end of the year there will be close to 500,000 deaths caused by Covid-19 directly, or indirectly related to Covid-19 illness.  He is somewhat disturbed by the feeling that people have become immune to the daily death toll.

 

He discussed school openings in other countries that have gone well but fails to emphasize the fact that these countries have a much lower prevalence than the United States.  There was no discussion of the structure or systems that were used to carry out reopening successfully in these other countries.  He did state that it makes no sense for states with high prevalence such as Texas, Florida, Georgia, California and others to even attempt in person reopening.

 

He is saddened by the lack of accountability and the behavior that is being evidenced on College Campuses as they attempt to reopen.  As I stated above, I blame the educators with the degrees and the letters after their names, who had the opportunity to design a system for success based on enforcement of mitigation strategies that are known to work.  

 

Dr. Emanuel expresses his amazement and admiration for the progress in vaccine development.  He believes that we could have 100 million doses by the end of the year, I believe we will have more.  I believe that there is a distinct possibility, that early on, we will have more vaccines than people willing to get vaccinated.  In the US, the government will be paying for vaccination of the public so health insurance will not be an issue.

 

There was a discussion between the doctors of world wide equitable distribution.  This broadcast can probably be found on Youtube.  The relevant point made was that normalcy of life in the US cannot be expected until the world is vaccinated.

 

The importance of Flu vaccination this fall was discussed.  We should be planning and distributing vaccine now.  Since the workplace and schools were common sources of vaccination and now much of this population has gone virtual or is unemployed a plan must be ready for accomplishing Flu vaccination which can then be used as a template for Covid vaccination soon.

 

There have been several reports of the use of Convalescent Plasma recently and although the studies were reasonable large the designs were poor and it is difficult to truly determine the efficacy of this expensive and limited therapy.

 

NUMBERS

 

Dead - 176,489

 

We are still averaging close to 40,000 new cases daily

 

Bed Utilization

 

Only Iowa and Wisconsin had minimal increases in bed utilization

 

Cases

 

Only Connecticut, Illinois and Iowa experienced an increase in the number of new cases this week.

 

Live Safely

Be Well

 

11 minutes ago, NoDak Eagle said:

No Dak you should actually go into that site and play with the stats they got.  Excess expected deaths is and will always be the best real indicator of what the F happened.  That exact site has it 183k+ on the LOWER boundary.

 

 

We will need to be able to look in the rear view mirror at the mortality rate over say 18 months to see what this thing did and didn't do.  Many of the people that have died would have died over say a 12 month period anyway but their lives were shortened by COVID.  Others would have lived on for years or decades.  Right now it is too soon to see the difference.

6 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

We will need to be able to look in the rear view mirror at the mortality rate over say 18 months to see what this thing did and didn't do.  Many of the people that have died would have died over say a 12 month period anyway but their lives were shortened by COVID.  Others would have lived on for years or decades.  Right now it is too soon to see the difference.

Here you go again with the pro-Trump propaganda posts. 

43 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

Here you go again with the pro-Trump propaganda posts. 

Don't be a stupid partisan hack.  What I wrote was 100% accurate.  I'll leave the political sheet to you on this one.  COVID is bigger than the Left/Right divide.

2 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Don't be a stupid partisan hack.  What I wrote was 100% accurate.  I'll leave the political sheet to you on this one.  COVID is bigger than the Left/Right divide.

You know we can figure out how many people died in 2018 and 2019 and then look at how many people died during the same period in 2020 right?  This ain't rocket science, friend.

The pro-Trumpers are the ones who keep saying we need to wait 18 months.  What a load of BS!!!

@DrPhilly

Check this link. 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_08262020/WeeklyExcessDeaths

48 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

You know we can figure out how many people died in 2018 and 2019 and then look at how many people died during the same period in 2020 right?  This ain't rocket science, friend.

The pro-Trumpers are the ones who keep saying we need to wait 18 months.  What a load of BS!!!

Math is not your major young buck.  Leave that up to people that understand it.

39 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Math is not your major young buck.  Leave that up to people that understand it.

180,000 Covid-19 deaths is an undercount.  We already have hundreds of people that know more than you and I saying this.  Trump and friends are saying it's an overcount.

Guess who you're gullible enough to believe?

24 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

180,000 Covid-19 deaths is an undercount.  We already have hundreds of people that know more than you and I saying this.  Trump and friends are saying it's an overcount.

Guess who you're gullible enough to believe?

I didn’t say it was an over count. Go talk to the math dept. 

8 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

I didn’t say it was an over count. Go talk to the math dept. 

You’re acting confused about a death toll that we actually have a pretty good read on.

Did you click on the link I posted?

I’m not sure if you’re really unsure about this or if you’re preparing to join the Trump administration...

1 minute ago, Dave Moss said:

You’re acting confused about a death toll that we actually have a pretty good read on.

Did you click on the link I posted?

I’m not sure if you’re really unsure about this or if you’re preparing to join the Trump administration...

He doesn't even live in this country his thoughts don't count let it go man. Lol 

2 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

He doesn't even live in this country his thoughts don't count let it go man. Lol 

I know.
 

I should just stick to conversing with him in the Soccer thread.

 

    

46 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

You’re acting confused about a death toll that we actually have a pretty good read on.

Did you click on the link I posted?

I’m not sure if you’re really unsure about this or if you’re preparing to join the Trump administration...

Look I have disagreed with DrPhilly somewhat about Corona management, but this is a misrepresentation of what he's saying.  All he's saying is that the overall impact of this whole thing: death toll, health toll, economic toll, unemployment toll, mental health etc, won't be fully understood fully for a long time.  Which is completely fair. That is absolutely not the same as saying: "data is inconclusive so everyone gets a free pass for how they managed things". We can look at data and make reasonable assumptions and judgements, but still recognize that  epidemiologists and economists have literal years worth of data to sort through from this whole thing.  

1 minute ago, DEagle7 said:

Look I have disagreed with DrPhilly somewhat about Corona management, but this is a misrepresentation of what he's saying.  All he's saying is that the overall impact of this whole thing: death toll, health toll, economic toll, unemployment toll, mental health etc, won't be fully understood fully for a long time.  Which is completely fair. That is absolutely not the same as saying: "data is inconclusive so everyone gets a free pass for how they managed things". We can look at data and make reasonable assumptions and judgements, but still recognize that  epidemiologists and economists have literal years worth of data to sort through from this whole thing.  

Yeah, I agree with that.  But he also ignores the data we already have, which is substantial.

I mean, I studied history.  I always say that in history we usually wait 10-20 years to figure out an event or movement.  So I’m the first guy to say wait to analyze something if necessary.  This ain’t history though.

1 minute ago, Dave Moss said:

Yeah, I agree with that.  But he also ignores the data we already have, which is substantial.

I mean, I studied history.  I always say that in history we usually wait 10-20 years to figure out an event or movement.  So I’m the first guy to say wait to analyze something if necessary.  This ain’t history though.

I think there are decisions we can reasonably judge right now (eg many things about Trump's response).  There are also decisions that it is fully reasonable to have opinions on but will take a fair amount of time to fully evaluate the cost/benefit.  DP happens to live in Sweden which is ground zero for a decision that has received international attention, that I would describe as falling more into the latter than the former.