August 30, 20205 yr Also for a guy so keen on presenting "both sides,” he sure is eager to present the Trump side’s arguments. Pretty suspicious if you ask me.
August 30, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, DEagle7 said: I think there are decisions we can reasonably judge right now (eg many things about Trump's response). There are also decisions that it is fully reasonable to have opinions on but will take a fair amount of time to fully evaluate the cost/benefit. DP happens to live in Sweden which is ground zero for a decision that has received international attention, that I would describe as falling more into the latter than the former. I really don’t care about Sweden ftr. They haven’t been a player on the world stage since the 30 Years War.
August 30, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Dave Moss said: Also for a guy so keen on presenting "both sides,” he sure is eager to present the Trump side’s arguments. Pretty suspicious if you ask me. I don't think DrPhilly has ever really hesitated to call Trump an idiot. At least not that I'm aware of. As I said I think his posts have a lot more to do with describing/defending his experience in Sweden, where the decision to not lock down has been mocked internationally. Which is a very reasonable stance to take even if you disagree with it.
August 30, 20205 yr The only thing about using excess mortality is that there are secondary factors to consider. COVID-19 has impacted lifestyles, health beyond just the virus itself, access and frequency of regular healthcare, etc It's generally going to be a good stat, but it's also going to be easy to poke enough holes in anything there that people will argue reality for years. FWIW excess mortality in the US appears to be running about 50% higher than COVID-19 deaths alone. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries No doubt many who think this virus is "exaggerated" will buy any argument that says those excess deaths are because of secondary effects of the lockdown, not the virus itself. Meanwhile others will simply state ALL excess deaths are because of COVID-19, regardless.
August 30, 20205 yr Not to get involved in this idiocy, but I think the question being posited is basically are we, to some degree, "pulling forward” deaths from the next few years into this year. Given COVID is most impactful among the elderly with co-morbitidies, are people who would have died in the next 2-3 years being taken sooner. We will need to see if the number of deaths drops in subsequent years after we get this under control to know the answer. I don’t know if the impact is meaningful, but it is a fair question.
August 30, 20205 yr I was thinking about how a "man years lost" kind of analysis and how that would look with COVID-19. Of course the criticism would be loud and calls or agism/etc would be all over it. But it would be interesting from a data standpoint. We also need to learn over time what long term health complications, if any, we see from this.
August 30, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said: I was thinking about how a "man years lost" kind of analysis and how that would look with COVID-19. Of course the criticism would be loud and calls or agism/etc would be all over it. But it would be interesting from a data standpoint. We also need to learn over time what long term health complications, if any, we see from this. Your last sentence is the key to me, at least selfishly. Some of the stories about lung and heart capacity impacts really concerns me.
August 31, 20205 yr 7 hours ago, vikas83 said: Not to get involved in this idiocy, but I think the question being posited is basically are we, to some degree, "pulling forward” deaths from the next few years into this year. Given COVID is most impactful among the elderly with co-morbitidies, are people who would have died in the next 2-3 years being taken sooner. We will need to see if the number of deaths drops in subsequent years after we get this under control to know the answer. I don’t know if the impact is meaningful, but it is a fair question. Pretty simple really from a numbers perspective. Impossible to put a value on morally though.
August 31, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, Bwestbrook36 said: He doesn't even live in this country his thoughts don't count let it go man. Lol Stop taxing me then.
August 31, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, Dave Moss said: Also for a guy so keen on presenting "both sides,” he sure is eager to present the Trump side’s arguments. Pretty suspicious if you ask me. Ahhh you caught me. Guess it is time to confess. So I've been on these boards since 2003 as a sleeper poster just biding my time waiting for this very moment to suddenly flip over and support Trump. The last four years I've been building up credibility by constantly criticizing Trump (repeatedly and harshly to the point of having the label TDS shoved at me time and time and time again) in order to be able to build a smoke screen around my real intention of trying to sway 10 votes from this message board at the last minute over to Trump's side based on some review of the math in the midst of a worldwide and rare super pandemic. I'm a true Patriot!
August 31, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, DEagle7 said: I don't think DrPhilly has ever really hesitated to call Trump an idiot. At least not that I'm aware of. As I said I think his posts have a lot more to do with describing/defending his experience in Sweden, where the decision to not lock down has been mocked internationally. Which is a very reasonable stance to take even if you disagree with it. Yes and you'll also notice I haven't taken any specific stance with this one other than the fact that Trump has been an absolute horror show of a leader. All I've ever said was that we are in quite murky territory with regard to this thing despite the fact that we've gathered a ton of data (there is still more than a ton to go). I think that is very obvious to anyone with half a logical and neutral brain. What I do think has been important is the need for a country to be aligned behind a plan and remain steady and focused with calming leadership. The US has been all over the place very much thanks to Trump but of course also in part due to the natural division of power which makes it tougher. I don't think anyone has gotten this perfectly right and I think each place is quite unique and requires a different cocktail of measures. The final chapter with this thing is still a good ways off. I'll keep bringing you updates from Sweden as this place is one of the outliers and worth keeping up with. I'd do the same from New Zealand if I lived there as they are equally interesting. I would think that anyone that can get beyond the politics, and is actually interested in how to combat COVID, would be very much tuned in to both Sweden and New Zealand (and many other places of course).
August 31, 20205 yr 18 hours ago, NoDak Eagle said: Smh smh smh smh. And this is part of the problem, people misinterpreting data. Newsflash, over half the adult population have one or more of hypertension, high cholesterol, or diabetes. So right off the bat, for anyone who contracts COVID, there’s a well over 50% chance that they have at least 1 comorbidity. The majority of people who die from this virus are over 65 years old. The overwhelming majority of people over 65 have a comorbidity. So this "statistic” is absolutely meaningless. Gee I wonder how many people who die from a heart attack also have a comorbidity. Better call the American Heart Association and tell them their fudging their numbers since "really” only a few people die from "only” having a heart attack.
August 31, 20205 yr 3 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: Smh smh smh smh. And this is part of the problem, people misinterpreting data. Newsflash, over half the adult population have one or more of hypertension, high cholesterol, or diabetes. So right off the bat, for anyone who contracts COVID, there’s a well over 50% chance that they have at least 1 comorbidity. The majority of people who die from this virus are over 65 years old. The overwhelming majority of people over 65 have a comorbidity. So this "statistic” is absolutely meaningless. Gee I wonder how many people who die from a heart attack also have a comorbidity. Better call the American Heart Association and tell them their fudging their numbers since "really” only a few people die from "only” having a heart attack. yeah, this is the new line from right wingers now. that the "real" number is like 6% of the reported number
August 31, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, DrPhilly said: Ahhh you caught me. Guess it is time to confess. So I've been on these boards since 2003 as a sleeper poster just biding my time waiting for this very moment to suddenly flip over and support Trump. The last four years I've been building up credibility by constantly criticizing Trump (repeatedly and harshly to the point of having the label TDS shoved at me time and time and time again) in order to be able to build a smoke screen around my real intention of trying to sway 10 votes from this message board at the last minute over to Trump's side based on some review of the math in the midst of a worldwide and rare super pandemic. I'm a true Patriot! I consider you more anti-Dem than anti-GOP even with your anti-Trump diatribes. I’ve also seen some super conservatives on here called RINOs so I wouldn’t count any of that ftr.
August 31, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, DrPhilly said: The US has been all over the place very much thanks to Trump but of course also in part due to the natural division of power which makes it tougher. During crises political leaders have to work together or our system of government doesn’t work. And believe it or not, that used to be a thing.
August 31, 20205 yr 8 minutes ago, Dave Moss said: I consider you more anti-Dem than anti-GOP even with your anti-Trump diatribes. I’ve also seen some super conservatives on here called RINOs so I wouldn’t count any of that ftr. I'm absolutely VERY anti far left. That is true. The threat I grew up with was from the left and that didn't change when I moved to Europe. My wife's relatives were shot at by Soviet officials which also added to the mix AND I saw the very clear problems of leftist rule on a practical level when I first moved to Sweden in the mid-80s (e.g. marginal tax rate at 85% and even I hit that the start of that level with my just out of college salary). I also absolutely despise identity politics which is the motor under this entire crock of sheet that we have right now. Economic issues hijacking the problems with racism (racism is a real problem on its own). I work evenly well with Moderate Dems or Moderate Repubs. I'll typically side more on the right for pure fiscal matters and more to the left for more social areas (e.g. lbgtq, etc.). I'm STRONGLY anti-Trump. See my signature as a hint. 4 minutes ago, Dave Moss said: During crises political leaders have to work together or our system of government doesn’t work. And believe it or not, that used to be a thing. Which I've been a super loud voice for during this entire episode and in fact going back to Trump's first day in office.
August 31, 20205 yr 8 minutes ago, DrPhilly said: I'm absolutely VERY anti far left. That is true. The threat I grew up with was from the left and that didn't change when I moved to Europe. My wife's relatives were shot at by Soviet officials which also added to the mix AND I saw the very clear problems of leftist rule on a practical level when I first moved to Sweden in the mid-80s (e.g. marginal tax rate at 85% and even I hit that the start of that level with my just out of college salary). I also absolutely despise identity politics which is the motor under this entire crock of sheet that we have right now. Economic issues hijacking the problems with racism (racism is a real problem on its own). I work evenly well with Moderate Dems or Moderate Repubs. I'll typically side more on the right for pure fiscal matters and more to the left for more social areas (e.g. lbgtq, etc.). I'm STRONGLY anti-Trump. See my signature as a hint. Which I've been a super loud voice for during this entire episode and in fact going back to Trump's first day in office. People like you and I, who didn’t vote for Hillary, got Trump elected. That’s a fact.
August 31, 20205 yr 53 minutes ago, Dave Moss said: People like you and I, who didn’t vote for Hillary, got Trump elected. That’s a fact. No that isn't true. I voted in Virginia and carefully reviewed the potential for Trump to win the state. I correctly deducted that he could not and as such I shifted my vote to 3rd party. If I thought Trump could have won Virginia I would have voted for Hillary. Note: I could have been wrong but in the end I wasn't. I was lucky, I'll give you that. Others may have used the same logic in states that Trump won. They would have been unlucky and wrong. edit: I realize this logical manner of thinking won't work with Moss logic. No worries, I'm ok with that.
August 31, 20205 yr https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/08/america-facing-monkey-shortage/615799/
August 31, 20205 yr 7 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/08/america-facing-monkey-shortage/615799/ There goes my idea of getting the kids a monkey for Christmas.
August 31, 20205 yr 22 hours ago, NoDak Eagle said: It's been known from the beginning people with underlying health issues are more adversely effected from COVID. "tHiS iS mInD bOgGlIng!!!!"
August 31, 20205 yr 8/30 COVID update from the Doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/08/83020-covid-19-update.html FDA At at a time when the FDA should be the embodiment of trust and integrity to propel a successful vaccination campaign against Covid-19, they have again failed to live up to expectations. Inexplicably, Dr. Stephen Hahn, head of the FDA, granted Emergency Use Authorization to Convalescent Plasma Therapy. He misrepresented the data of poorly designed studies which yield no scientific data of the efficacy of this expensive treatment. Fortunately, the scientific medical community raged over the subterfuge. It is most unfortunate that the scientific medical community which has traditionally looked to the FDA for guidance now must guide the FDA. Dr. Hahn apparently learned little from the Hydroxychloroquine debacle. We sorely need organizations and leaders with integrity and trustworthiness, to assure the public that coming vaccines will be safe and effective. REINFECTION There are now several reports that suggest that reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 may be a distinct possibility. It has been suspected that not all patients who become infected with Covid-19 seroconvert, and new studies suggest that an antibody response that does not also include Neutralizing T cells may be inadequate to prevent reinfection. There are implications of this to a vaccination program. How many vaccinated patients will have both antibody and T cell response? How long will these response be protective? People should not anticipate ditching their masks and social distancing because a successful vaccine/vaccines are developed. How will you know who has been vaccinated? How will you know who has had a protective response to the vaccine? How will you know how long a protective response lasts? Time Course of a Second Outbreak of Covid-19 in Beijing, China, June-July 2020. JAMA 8/24 Z. Lou, M.D. The Chinese Department of Health has developed a robust protocol to confront any new outbreak of Covid-19. They define outbreak as ONE RT-PCR positive case. Any positive case is required to be reported to the Department of Health within two hours. An investigation with reporting will take place within 24 hours. This involves immediate personnel deployment, aggressive case finding and contact tracing, isolation in hospital of all positive cases. Close contacts are quarantined and movement is restricted. Beijing went 56 days without a case of local transmitted Covid-19 (as opposed to foreigners bringing the disease in). Their first new case was diagnosed June 11 in a man in his 50's with no history of contact with another Covid patient or foreign travel. As per protocol, an "attack alarm" was triggered. Two initial cases were found to have epidemiologic links to Xinfadi Agricultural Wholesale Food Market. (similar to the market in Wuhan) The Market was shut down on 6/12. All market workers, recent visitors, close contacts of cases were tested. Residents of surrounding communities were actively sought and RT-PCR testing was performed. (note they used the gold standard test, not an inferior surrogate with high false negative rates) There were 335 confirmed cases and 33 asymptomatic positives were also found. 74% of the positive cases had epidemiologic links to the market, 46% were market workers, 45% were involved with seafood, 20% with vegetables, and 18% with meats. 26% were close contacts. After 7/5 no further cases were found. There have been no new cases from that date to the submission of the manuscript. This was a world class response to a worldwide epidemic. Does this represent another case of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from animal/fish to human? Presence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in children without symptoms of Coronavirus Disease 2019 JAMA Pediatrics 8/25 A.M. Sola, BS The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children without symptoms was investigated at 28 Children's Hospitals in the US between April to May 29. 250 of 33.041 asymptomatic children (0-18) were RT-PCR positive. The mean weekly incidence of Covid-19 for the entire population of the combined statistical area (CSA) for each hospital was calculated by Johns Hopkins. Across the 25 CSAs represented by these facilities prevalence varied from 0- 2.2%, the pooled prevalence was 0.65%. Asymptomatic pediatric prevalence was significantly associated with the weekly incidence of Covid-19 in the general population during the six week period over which the testing was performed. These findings suggest a low pooled prevalence of positive SARS-CoV-2 results among children who were asymptomatic. NUMBERS compared with week of 8/23 Death 182,786 Hospital beds utilized Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania all had increases in Covid-19 bed utilization New Cumulative Cases for the week Alabama, Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and South Carolina all saw an increase in new cases this week. Alabama led the list with 2800, and Connecticut saw an almost 50% increase in new cases. Iowa also had a large number of new cases at 2000 Live Safely Be Well
August 31, 20205 yr Completely infuriating... https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-trump-sowed-covid-supply-chaos-try-getting-it-yourselves-11598893051
August 31, 20205 yr 24 minutes ago, vikas83 said: Completely infuriating... https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-trump-sowed-covid-supply-chaos-try-getting-it-yourselves-11598893051 His crisis management is worse than you could have possibly imagined. This is why he is toast. I wish it hadn't taken an actual crisis to expose him.
September 1, 20205 yr Update from Sweden: The national mortality rate has been under or essentially at the average now for over a month after slowing dropping since a peak in the end of April. The minor uptick seen in cases % in the 1st half of August looks to have subsided but we need a couple more weeks of final data reports to be sure. All signs point in the positive direction but no one is ready to claim we are out of the woods at this stage. Still a longggg way to go. Edit: Further, the national health minister was clear to point out that there is at this point no claim that herd immunity has been reached but that the important thing is that all stats and trends are moving in the right direction and in fact are very low at this point in time.
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