6 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said:

Huh?  First off, This isn’t "my” assertion.  This is the assertion of peer reviewed medical studies.

Secondly, if you’ve read my father’s posts and came away with the conclusion that he’s merely providing "anecdotal evidence” then I don’t know what to tell you.   
And lastly, how does it not logically follow?

From 2/1 to 8/1, the "official” COVID death count was 158,000.  During that same time period, there was 210,000 excess deaths in this country.

So that means there were 52,000 excess deaths ABOVE the "official” COVID death count.  It is very likely that this gap is partially explained by people dying of COVID and those deaths being mis-attributed to other causes.  Especially early on in the pandemic when testing was not widespread and we were still learning what we were dealing with.

It took me a few minutes to realize that your assertion which you claim is peer reviewed  only follows if you assume that excess deaths can only be the result of coronavirus and not other factors, or rather if you assume that coronavirus is the most likely cause among many other causes of excess deaths.

But that’s your assumption, and I’m not there yet.  I suspect many of your peer reviewers are making certain assumptions as well

20 minutes ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

And is anecdotal evidence from the state that intentionally confined people in nursing homes with the pandemic really a better look at the big picture than anyone else has?

This is literally the dumbest, most poorly thought through and partisan comment I've ever read.  What in the F does New York's order to house Covid patients in nursing homes have to do with the reports posted from PhillyTerp's father?

Just now, VanHammersly said:

This is literally the dumbest, most poorly thought through and partisan comment I've ever read.  What in the F does New York's order to house Covid patients in nursing homes have to do with the reports posted from PhillyTerp's father?

His evidence for his argument seems to depend on someone from new york

6 minutes ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

His evidence for his argument seems to depend on someone from new york

Yeah, his father, who's on the ground and actually dealing with Covid all day.  His father didn't order Covid patients to be housed in nursing homes.  He just lives in a state that did.  But for some stupid, straw-grasping reason you dismiss his reports based on a NY policy that has nothing to do with him.

3 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

This is literally the dumbest, most poorly thought through and partisan comment I've ever read.  What in the F does New York's order to house Covid patients in nursing homes have to do with the reports posted from PhillyTerp's father?

I'm not gonna tell you how to spend your Saturday, but I think you can see where this conversation is headed. And that place is exactly where we are right now. Because it's an endless F-ing circle. 

7 minutes ago, Lloyd said:

I'm not gonna tell you how to spend your Saturday, but I think you can see where this conversation is headed. And that place is exactly where we are right now. Because it's an endless F-ing circle. 

Normally I stay away on the weekend.  I'm supposed to be booking a hotel in Savannah right now.  But I'm an idiot and can't help myself.

2 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

Yeah, his father, who's on the ground and actually dealing with Covid all day.  His father didn't order Covid patients to be housed in nursing homes.  He just lives in a state that did.  But for some stupid, straw-grasping reason you dismiss his reports based on a NY policy that has nothing to do with him.

I don’t blame his father for the deaths if that’s what you think.  But I’m not surprised at all to hear a guy from New York has seen many coronavirus deaths.  But taking your sample from that area to prove a point about the whole nation seems ludicrous on its face, unless I’m missing some nuanced feature of his arguments 

Just now, VanHammersly said:

Normally I stay away on the weekend.  I'm supposed to be booking a hotel in Savannah right now.  But I'm an idiot and can't help myself.

Haha, no I'm the same. It's just sometimes you can tell when it's like "Yeah we disagree, but you're gonna compromise a little and I'll compromise a little and we can both be kinda moderates in our own ways."

And then there's someone who's deeply entrenched in their universe, screaming into the void, and you snap out of it 8 hours later like, "Wait a second...Why the F am I talking to this guy?"

13 minutes ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

I don’t blame his father for the deaths if that’s what you think.  But I’m not surprised at all to hear a guy from New York has seen many coronavirus deaths.  But taking your sample from that area to prove a point about the whole nation seems ludicrous on its face, unless I’m missing some nuanced feature of his arguments 

No, that's not what I think.  I think you're desperate to dismiss any counter argument so you're for some reason latching onto NY's nursing home policy to dismiss an argument from someone that's actually knowledgeable on the issue.  And if you've read his posts, they're not just about the situation in NY.  They take a much broader look at the whole country.

5 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

No, that's not what I think.  I think you're desperate to dismiss any counter argument so you're for some reason latching onto NY's nursing home policy to dismiss an argument from someone that's actually knowledgeable on the issue.  And if you've read his posts, they're not just about the situation in NY.  They take a much broader look at the whole country.

Well you’re right.  I haven’t read his posts on his father probably since April.  So I guess I can’t really speak to that

18 minutes ago, Lloyd said:

Haha, no I'm the same. It's just sometimes you can tell when it's like "Yeah we disagree, but you're gonna compromise a little and I'll compromise a little and we can both be kinda moderates in our own ways."

And then there's someone who's deeply entrenched in their universe, screaming into the void, and you snap out of it 8 hours later like, "Wait a second...Why the F am I talking to this guy?"

70 yd FG is a really great screen name.  Because that's about the same success rate as his posts.

10 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

70 yd FG is a really great screen name.  Because that's about the same success rate as his posts.

Well maybe, but when it is successful it’s like holy crap

Just now, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

Well maybe, but when it is successful it’s like holy crap

Well done.  You hit one.  get out while your ahead.

1 hour ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

It took me a few minutes to realize that your assertion which you claim is peer reviewed  only follows if you assume that excess deaths can only be the result of coronavirus and not other factors, or rather if you assume that coronavirus is the most likely cause among many other causes of excess deaths.

But that’s your assumption, and I’m not there yet.  I suspect many of your peer reviewers are making certain assumptions as well

Huh???? That’s actually not at all what I’m saying.  I already said part of the excess deaths above the COVID death toll are likely due to suicide, drug overdose, and people avoiding going to hospitals for symptoms they otherwise would have gone for.  Part of that gap is ALSO likely explained by deaths due to COVID being misattributed to other causes. 
 

The idea that it’s something else (or anything else) that’s killing people is one of conservative’s favorite fantasies.  Like hundreds of thousands of people’s lungs filling up with hydrogel is relatively easy to survive, but not being able to work - now that’s a REAL killer.

1 hour ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

I don’t blame his father for the deaths if that’s what you think.  But I’m not surprised at all to hear a guy from New York has seen many coronavirus deaths.  But taking your sample from that area to prove a point about the whole nation seems ludicrous on its face, unless I’m missing some nuanced feature of his arguments 

Seriously have you read 1 single post I’ve shared from my father?  What on earth are you talking about?  

3 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

The idea that it’s something else (or anything else) that’s killing people is one of conservative’s favorite fantasies.  Like hundreds of thousands of people’s lungs filling up with hydrogel is relatively easy to survive, but not being able to work - now that’s a REAL killer.

I’m mean you’ve obviously also got your own biases.  I’m not saying the extra deaths definitely aren’t covid.  All I’m saying is the data we have now in the middle of the fog of war are garbage either way.  I mean who knows you both might be right and the Covid toll is actually double what Johns Hopkins officially states.  On the other hand we may be Fing ourselves up by diverting health resources to covid away from other health problems

Where my conservatism comes in is when I say first do no harm.  The left seems to want to "play it safe” as I could euphemistically call it form them

Btw the leading cause of death by far in the 20th century is getting killed by a government so let that sink in before you automatically think that it couldn’t be goverment policy that’s killing us

5 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

The idea that it’s something else (or anything else) that’s killing people is one of conservative’s favorite fantasies.  Like hundreds of thousands of people’s lungs filling up with hydrogel is relatively easy to survive, but not being able to work - now that’s a REAL killer.

It's so freaking strange. Even if suicide and stress and depression are causing more deaths, they're all a byproduct of the root cause which is the pandemic that we've let spread out of control. Trying to rebuild economies or social lives on top of a pandemic is like trying to rebuild a house on flooded land. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said:

Seriously have you read 1 single post I’ve shared from my father?  What on earth are you talking about?  

Hardly.  See my post from earlier

Speaking of my dad, some good news to share.  His contract with the hospital was set to be done in July.  They had asked him to stay on for the rest of the year, which he was initially considering.  But after some thought he’s finally decided to retire.  And this time he claims it’s for good (this isn’t the first time he’s said he’s retiring so we’ll see lol). Either way, I’m EXTREMELY happy and hope he actually retires for good this time!  He’s certainly given much to the profession and has certainly earned his retirement!

And spending his last 6 months of work in the epicenter of a major outbreak during a pandemic is certainly not what he had in mind when he signed up for this last stint of work.  

20 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said:

Huh???? That’s actually not at all what I’m saying.  I already said part of the excess deaths above the COVID death toll are likely due to suicide, drug overdose, and people avoiding going to hospitals for symptoms they otherwise would have gone for.  Part of that gap is ALSO likely explained by deaths due to COVID being misattributed to other causes. 
 

You said it was likely that the difference between estimated excess deaths and the official covid toll likely means that the actual Covid toll is actually higher than the official covid toll

4 minutes ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

Hardly.  See my post from earlier

Well then that’s on you for choosing to not inform yourself.  He provides insight from the latest peer reviewed research on a weekly basis.  You’re only doing yourself a disservice by ignoring it.

Just now, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

You said it was likely that the difference between estimated excess deaths and the official covid toll likely means that the actual Covid toll is actually higher than the official covid toll

Yes that PARTLY explains the gap.  I never said it was ALL of the gap in excess deaths.   It’s a combination of 

1) undercount of COVID deaths

2) excess death due to people avoiding going to the hospital 

3) excess deaths as a result of economic conditions (ie suicides, drug overdoses, etc...)

Just now, Phillyterp85 said:

Well then that’s on you for choosing to not inform yourself.  He provides insight from the latest peer reviewed research on a weekly basis.  You’re only doing yourself a disservice by ignoring it.

I’m not ignoring it I just can’t spend the whole of every one of my weekends in an entire year staying caught up on what Eagles fans think of world events 

And anything peer reviewed at this stage...it’s better than nothing but I’m not setting policy based on it.  Better data may come out in a few years and we can look back

Just now, Phillyterp85 said:

Yes that PARTLY explains the gap.  I never said it was ALL of the gap in excess deaths.   It’s a combination of 

1) undercount of COVID deaths

2) excess death due to people avoiding going to the hospital 

3) excess deaths as a result of economic conditions (ie suicides, drug overdoses, etc...)

No the claim wasn’t "partly” anything.  Your claim was that actual covid deaths was likely higher than the official count

you cannot be "partly” higher than the official count.  If the official count is 185k and you think it is likely that the actual count is 185,001 or greater, that’s not a "partly” claim about anything

i think it’s equally likely that the actual number is higher as it is lower