2 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

What the hell is that? Lol. Did he just disprove his own point?? Lmao. 

I think it's "unclear" what form of medical condition (cheetosis) he's suffering from.

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I think it's "unclear" what form of medical condition (cheetosis) he's suffering from.

No wonder Trump loves dumb people. 

It has already been explained by the finest minds the Internet has to offer, that the excess deaths are mostly suicides caused by lockdowns.

 

They call it respiratory distress/pneumonia only to harm Trump.

I’ll try this one more time @Seventy_Yard_FG.

The gap between the "official” COVID death count and the excess mortality is likely explained by a combination of the following:

1) An undercount of COVID deaths.   E.g someone dies from covid and it’s simply not counted as COVID due to lack of diagnostic data, which was more likely to happen earlier during the pandemic when testing capacity was scarce.

2) COVID deaths mis-appropriated to other causes.  E.g, Someone has COVID and their situation deteriorates and leads to cardiac arrest.  BUT the covid diagnosis is missed and their death is just recorded as cardiac arrest and COVID isn’t listed as the underlying cause that led to the cardiac arrest.

3) deaths due to disruptions in healthcare and/or people not going to the hospital for symptoms they otherwise would have gone for if not for the pandemic (dread risk).

4) deaths as a result of economic and other conditions.  E.g depression leading to suicide, drug overdose, etc...

25 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said:

I’ll try this one more time @Seventy_Yard_FG.

The gap between the "official” COVID death count and the excess mortality is likely explained by a combination of the following:

1) An undercount of COVID deaths.   E.g someone dies from covid and it’s simply not counted as COVID due to lack of diagnostic data, which was more likely to happen earlier during the pandemic when testing capacity was scarce.

2) COVID deaths mis-appropriated to other causes.  E.g, Someone has COVID and their situation deteriorates and leads to cardiac arrest.  BUT the covid diagnosis is missed and their death is just recorded as cardiac arrest and COVID isn’t listed as the underlying cause that led to the cardiac arrest.

3) deaths due to disruptions in healthcare and/or people not going to the hospital for symptoms they otherwise would have gone for if not for the pandemic (dread risk).

4) deaths as a result of economic and other conditions.  E.g depression leading to suicide, drug overdose, etc...

You missed 5) other non COVID related exceptions. Could be natural disaster, violence, other contagious sickness, etc. OR did you want that part under 4) ?

6 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

You missed 5) other non COVID related exceptions. Could be natural disaster, violence, other contagious sickness, etc. OR did you want that part under 4) ?

Sure that could be number 5.  

2 hours ago, Seventy_Yard_FG said:

First of all it specifically says it's "unclear" how many of these deaths are missed COVID deaths. You even circled the word in red like a serial killer for some bizarre reason.

Second if all the disruption of health care access they're describing isn't from lockdowns numbnuts. They're referring to a combination of healthcare systems being overburdened and disruption of access to care (eg borderline surgical procedures being put off to save ventilators for the ICUs, which happened in my wife's hospital last spring) as well as people not seeking routine care due to fear of catching it which is not recommended or mandated by any lockdown procedure.

24 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

You missed 5) other non COVID related exceptions. Could be natural disaster, violence, other contagious sickness, etc. OR did you want that part under 4) ?

Theoretically deaths from other contagious illnesses should decrease this year due to the distancing precautions. At least that's the thought for now, we'll see if any data on that comes out. 

36 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

First of all it specifically says it's "unclear" how many of these deaths are missed COVID deaths. You even circled the word in red like a serial killer for some bizarre reason.

Second if all the disruption of health care access they're describing isn't from lockdowns numbnuts. They're referring to a combination of healthcare systems being overburdened and disruption of access to care (eg borderline surgical procedures being put off to save ventilators for the ICUs, which happened in my wife's hospital last spring) as well as people not seeking routine care due to fear of catching it which is not recommended or mandated by any lockdown procedure.

Theoretically deaths from other contagious illnesses should decrease this year due to the distancing precautions. At least that's the thought for now, we'll see if any data on that comes out. 

In theory yeah. Pretty safe to assume the big chunk is from direct COVID impact in the short term. 

PA today with highest number of new cases since start of pandemic.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/live/coronavirus-covid-cases-philadelphia-pa-nj-de-updates-testing-news-20201022.html

Wolf and that dude running the dept of health gonna shut it all down again

7 minutes ago, mikemack8 said:

Wolf and that dude running the dept of health gonna shut it all down again

It's what a bunch of other country's are having to do.

Man, that would suck for Trump if more and more health officials start asking for something like that now.

Ugh.  I don't believe they will just "shut" things down again.  I get so tired of explaining this.  The initial shut downs were so that the health system would not get overwhelmed-#1.  #2 was to keep as many people as possible at home to slow the spread.  What may happen is no indoor seating, asking people to work from home if possible.  Poor kids will probably get sent home as well. Feel bad for parents will school aged children!   All essentials will remain open.  It's a new normal is all until we get a vaccine and can drastically lower the amount of infections.

Just now, DiPros said:

Ugh.  I don't believe they will just "shut" things down again.  I get so tired of explaining this.  The initial shut downs were so that the health system would not get overwhelmed-#1.  #2 was to keep as many people as possible at home to slow the spread.  What may happen is no indoor seating, asking people to work from home if possible.  Poor kids will probably get sent home as well. Feel bad for parents will school aged children!   All essentials will remain open.  It's a new normal is all until we get a vaccine and can drastically lower the amount of infections.

If the infection rates continue to climb, I think you see more of that 2nd point coming into play.  Gotta slow it down.  The whole point of a shutdown is to get 'blanket coverage' of all the different aspects of prevention and how we take steps to protect each other.  If they aren't working, you have to increase efforts.

And yes, once we get a vaccine things will get better.  But this is something so many people clamoring to open the country up are not realizing..  THERE IS STILL CURRENTLY *NO* VACCINE.  You're signing people's death warrants who cannot fight the disease.

Btw, the reason the European Union is contemplating lockdowns is because they know there is really no other way to stop the spread of infections.  In the US, Trump has left us with no strategy so we are left hoping for a vaccine.  But even that is not a real barrier to the ease in which this virus spreads. 

And in terms of statistics, the infection patterns we had in the US from March - August have followed the EU cases in general by about 2-4 weeks.  So we could be looking at an intense period of infection spread starting late November.

Another important factor is that with better contact tracing and testing protocols lockdowns/restrictions can hopefully be more targeted this time around. Unfortunately a lot of that relies on compliance so who the hell knows.

27 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

Another important factor is that with better contact tracing and testing protocols lockdowns/restrictions can hopefully be more targeted this time around. Unfortunately a lot of that relies on compliance so who the hell knows.

Yup.  That's what South Korea did.  They never went into large scale lockdowns.  They were able to target and isolate specific areas where outbreaks were occurring (such as a single office or apartment building) and isolate those specific places rather than having to do it for an entire region. 

Just now, Phillyterp85 said:

Yup.  That's what South Korea did.  They never went into large scale lockdowns.  They were able to target and isolate specific areas where outbreaks were occurring (such as a single office or apartment building) and isolate those specific places rather than having to do it for an entire region. 

I can't imagine why we never thought to try that....

...

Just now, Phillyterp85 said:

Yup.  That's what South Korea did.  They never went into large scale lockdowns.  They were able to target and isolate specific areas where outbreaks were occurring (such as a single office or apartment building) and isolate those specific places rather than having to do it for an entire region. 

Which worked fantastically.  I shouldn't have downplayed the potential impact of non-compliance though.  Korea has a lot less Qmorons per capita than we do.  

1 minute ago, DEagle7 said:

Which worked fantastically.  I shouldn't have downplayed the potential impact of non-compliance though.  Korea has a lot less Qmorons per capita than we do.  

They are hive insects, not real freedom loving people.

3 hours ago, DiPros said:

Ugh.  I don't believe they will just "shut" things down again.  I get so tired of explaining this.  The initial shut downs were so that the health system would not get overwhelmed-#1.  #2 was to keep as many people as possible at home to slow the spread.  What may happen is no indoor seating, asking people to work from home if possible.  Poor kids will probably get sent home as well. Feel bad for parents will school aged children!   All essentials will remain open.  It's a new normal is all until we get a vaccine and can drastically lower the amount of infections.

 Exactly right. And also because the raw case numbers aren't comparable from now to back then. People often forget how constrained our testing capacity was in the spring. Positive test rates are way lower now than they were then. Also, treatment regimens are better too, and thus average hospital stays are shorter.

That's not to say we won't see shutdowns again, only that we still have a ways to go before the healthcare systems are stressed to the same extent.

21 minutes ago, Green Dog said:

I can't imagine why we never thought to try that....

...

lol.  We never had a shot at it, Waaaaaaay to behind the 8 ball.  We still really don't have a shot at doing it.  We'd have to get case numbers waaaaaaaay down before we can start even think about doing that type of contact tracing.  

3 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 Exactly right. And also because the raw case numbers aren't comparable from now to back then. People often forget how constrained our testing capacity was in the spring. Positive test rates are way lower now than they were then. Also, treatment regimens are better too, and thus average hospital stays are shorter.

That's not to say we won't see shutdowns again, only that we still have a ways to go before the healthcare systems are stressed to the extent.

Yup, and hospitals are also now better equipped to be able to create surge ICU capacity if needed.  

22 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

Which worked fantastically.  I shouldn't have downplayed the potential impact of non-compliance though.  Korea has a lot less Qmorons per capita than we do.  

Oh absolutely.  I mean, they have processes that probably aren't even constitutional here.  Their app the government ran which contained a gps based database of carriers was not an optional thing.   That would have to be voluntary here I imagine. 

I don't think we'll see full-scale lockdowns, but targeted closings have already started up again here. In a few of the "hot spot" areas they have put a halt to indoor dining, bars and gyms again. Theoretically there is nothing stopping someone from a "hot spot" area traveling to a non-hot spot area to participate in those activities, but hopefully people don't abuse it.

Our daily cases and 7-day rolling average in this second wave are actually higher than the first wave, however testing is way up compared to back then (and thus, positivity rate is much lower now). Deaths and people in ICU have risen from the levels they were at in the summer months, but are nowhere close to what it was like back in March through May.

In the meantime, it'll continue burning through the population at various rates until we get a vaccine. Hopefully most cases are mild and we're able to protect the most vulnerable.

We made a couple of smaller relaxations today bumping up the number of people who can attend cultural or sports events from 50 to 300 and also lessening the recommendations on people over 70 so that they now have the same as everyone else in terms of distancing, avoiding mass transit, etc .