October 30, 20205 yr So.... what's everyone doing with their kids for Halloween? I'm sure answers will be heavily dependent on the severity of the virus in each person's area as well as local public health guidelines. We only have 5 active cases in our area, so we're comfortable taking the kids around the neighborhood with masks, proper distancing, and a sheet ton of hand sanitizer. We're also going to give out candy but we'll be outside on our front porch to eliminate contact points of the door/doorbell. The plan is to put candy in small Halloween-themed bags and hand them out with tongs.
October 30, 20205 yr Quote White House coronavirus coordinator Dr Deborah Birx has reportedly boycotted Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force due to misinformation. The leading physician was said to have walked out of a meeting of the White House coronavirus task force this summer, and decided never to return again. CNN reported that Dr Birx, who advised the US president over many months, decided to deliver messages directly to the public, in part due to the appointment of Dr Scott Atlas. She told colleagues that she would side-step any meetings with Dr Atlas, a controversial White House adviser without any background in infectious diseases or public health. Mr Trump appointed him to the coronavirus taskforce in August, after appearing on Fox News for several months to challenge lockdowns, masks and other preventative measures.
October 30, 20205 yr 58 minutes ago, Dawkins 20 said: So.... what's everyone doing with their kids for Halloween? I'm sure answers will be heavily dependent on the severity of the virus in each person's area as well as local public health guidelines. We only have 5 active cases in our area, so we're comfortable taking the kids around the neighborhood with masks, proper distancing, and a sheet ton of hand sanitizer. We're also going to give out candy but we'll be outside on our front porch to eliminate contact points of the door/doorbell. The plan is to put candy in small Halloween-themed bags and hand them out with tongs. My kids will probably go around the block. I put the candy we plan to give out into ziplock bags. I only put together about 72 bags, so here’s to hoping we don’t get more than that. I generally put a table out on our front yard and hand out candy. I may do something similar, but just leave the bags there and have each kid take one while I sit back away from the table.
October 30, 20205 yr We have a wedding tomorrow. About 50 people. Church and then reception at a home with a huge tent. Was over there last night and it looked a little tight to me although they are decorating and setting things up today. I'm OK with being around folks that I am normally around, but not feeling real good about being in a tent. Maybe to eat but that's it. Weather looks good so will space myself outside as much as possible, and also try to sit near the door or outer edge when I am inside.
October 30, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Dawkins 20 said: So.... what's everyone doing with their kids for Halloween? I'm sure answers will be heavily dependent on the severity of the virus in each person's area as well as local public health guidelines. We only have 5 active cases in our area, so we're comfortable taking the kids around the neighborhood with masks, proper distancing, and a sheet ton of hand sanitizer. We're also going to give out candy but we'll be outside on our front porch to eliminate contact points of the door/doorbell. The plan is to put candy in small Halloween-themed bags and hand them out with tongs. Cases are high in our area, but we're still going out with the condition that the kids wear masks and keep them on. I'll make a mental note of all the houses with death cult members handing out candy without a mask on and make sure to take a nice big stinky sheet in a lunch bag and put it on their porch sunday night.
October 30, 20205 yr 24 minutes ago, mr_hunt said: Ya hate to see it........actually you really do. Sad.
October 30, 20205 yr 27 minutes ago, mr_hunt said: Atlas has tainted anybody with even a tangential relationship. Birx, Redfield, Fauci, etc. They have to actively spar with him like Fauci does to avoid being guilty by association. Those who don't fight as much, basically get labelled as being a toady for Trump. During a time of crisis with so many lives lost each day, the ones with a conscience need to be heard louder than ever. Birx failed a bit in that regard.
October 30, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: Atlas has tainted anybody with even a tangential relationship. Birx, Redfield, Fauci, etc. They have to actively spar with him like Fauci does to avoid being guilty by association. Those who don't fight as much, basically get labelled as being a toady for Trump. During a time of crisis with so many lives lost each day, the ones with a conscience need to be heard louder than ever. Birx failed a bit in that regard. agreed
October 30, 20205 yr Latest numbers out in Sweden. Large rise in confirmed cases over the last week with a clear 2nd wave underway. Hard to really compare with earlier phases though as the only other period with lots of testing was in June. Still clear enough to show the general spike. Anecdotal evidence for me personally is also in sync with the general situation. I know of a small set of people who have tested positive including my wife's boss and boss' kid plus one person from my work. Overall, the general percentage of tests that have been positive had leveled off only to jump this past week up to 5% which is the highest we have going back to early July. The other key stats are less conclusive but show some clear bumps. ICU numbers are up but still really low and deaths actually dropped two weeks back only to rise up again to make the last month look low and flat. These two of the ones to watch over the next several weeks. The government has spent the last weeks ramping the message and calling for more diligence in observing the recommended restrictions. Companies are encouraged now to enforce a work from home policy when at all possible and people are being asked not to visit stores or restaurants except in necessary situations. Generally, people out and about have started to drop over the last few days so I think people are slowing moving back to at least the May/June levels and potentially down into the March/April levels. Fwiw, France is on the same trajectory that the US had a couple months back of tracking down and overtaking Sweden for deaths per million. The latest numbers show Sweden at 587 per million and rising very very slowly with France closing in quickly and now up to 551. France will run past within a few weeks time. The US is now up to 707. Those numbers should obviously not be used to make any conclusions of any kind. They are simply the numbers each place has reported.
October 30, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, The_Omega said: As the husband of a paramedic, is that your professional opinion? No, my professional sarcastic response to
October 30, 20205 yr 23 hours ago, DrPhilly said: Yes we do though it is somewhat misleading as nearly the entire population lives in the southern 1/3 of the country so the density is much greater in reality in terms of where the people actually live. Still much less than Germany or France though. We're in a similar position here in Canada. The population density is something like 3 people per square mile, but most of the country is totally uninhabited. Over 50% of the population lives in the red shaded area (~19 million people). Not surprisingly, that is where the highest case numbers are located:
October 30, 20205 yr https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/ronda-rousey-wwe-arrest-believed-real-trump-covid19-ad-campaign-documents-160916446.html This is hilarious.
October 30, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, Dawkins 20 said: We're in a similar position here in Canada. The population density is something like 3 people per square mile, but most of the country is totally uninhabited. Over 50% of the population lives in the red shaded area (~19 million people). Not surprisingly, that is where the highest case numbers are located: Yeah, your situation in regards to population density is like ours times 40.
October 31, 20205 yr 15 hours ago, Dawkins 20 said: So.... what's everyone doing with their kids for Halloween? I'm sure answers will be heavily dependent on the severity of the virus in each person's area as well as local public health guidelines. We only have 5 active cases in our area, so we're comfortable taking the kids around the neighborhood with masks, proper distancing, and a sheet ton of hand sanitizer. We're also going to give out candy but we'll be outside on our front porch to eliminate contact points of the door/doorbell. The plan is to put candy in small Halloween-themed bags and hand them out with tongs. I don't have kids, but I'm giving out candy. People who are worried about getting the coronavirus will be home. I have candy in bags and will be placing "bodybags" at gravestones. Kids can rob the graves for candy and take the bodybags.
October 31, 20205 yr Late with this one again, gonna try to get the next one uploaded on time! Update from 10/25 from the Doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/10/102520-covid-19-update.html RISING COVID-19 INFECTIONS Coronavirus cases are surging across Europe and the U.S. but infections have stayed at low levels in most Asian countries. In Asia, except for the occasional small outbreak, life has returned to normal. We can assume that the virus has no prejudice. Currently, China, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong combined have fewer than 1,000 cases per day. The U.S. alone is reporting over 60,000 cases per day. Roughly one third of the world's population resides in East and Southeast Asia, these densely populated regions account for less than one fifth of the Covid deaths and a fraction of the current caseload. There was and is no magic. They have been far more compliant with masks, physical distancing and sanitation. Frequently, quarantining is accomplished in government controlled facilities. Smartphones, credit card data, CCTV and other technologies lead to more robust track and trace methodology. The smaller case load also makes it far easier to accomplish effectively. There is not a day that goes by that I don't entertain multiple questions from individuals who are confused about the meaning of "close contact" or what to do when a family member becomes infected. Most of the individuals believe that if a family member, living in the same household is positive, but they themselves test negative, they are good to go. In a recent UK study, more than three quarters of those who were supposed to be quarantining were non-compliant. Asian countries have much more stringent travel restrictions. Visitors are typically required to test for the virus upon arrival. In Hong Kong, New Zealand, Fiji, Solomon Islands, and South Korea a two week government monitored quarantine is required. (Fiji lost 10% of its population in sixteen days to the Spanish Flu) This year the Chinese economy has expanded by 1.9%, the U.S economy is expected to shrink by 4.3% while the Eurozone is forecast to contract by 8.3%. This disparity will result in growing differences in economic resources and will have significant effects on the projection of power and political influence between the west and east asian civilizations. Denial, obstinance and rebellion in the U.S. have led to the current crisis, which is mounting in ferocity with no end in sight. During the Spanish Flu pandemic, the Wilson administration did nothing to contain the virus. Wilson himself was totally absorbed in the "total war" effort giving little thought to the virus. "Don't be scared of the virus" was the administrative mantra and was carried by most of the leading newspapers in the country. The virus ran its course in waves from March of 1918 until sometime in 1920. The only major advantage in containing the virus in today's world are masks, which effectively decrease transmission, which were not available in 1918. The U.S. lost, by current population standards, about 1.9 million people. The majority during a 12 week period in the fall of 1918. Despite these tremendous losses, government officials did little. (they were capable only of NPI = nonpharmacologic intervention, but they did not do that either) The Mayor of Philadelphia ignored the pleading of the leading medical practitioners in the city to call off the War Bond Parade (the last week of September), which in short order resulted in thousands of deaths in a relatively short time after the parade. In the week of October 16th, 4600 Philadelphians died of the Flu. John Dill Robertson, Chicago Public Health Commissioner, stated that fear caused more deaths than the flu. What the government would not do, small private groups, many made up of the well to do, stepped in to do, minimizing large gatherings and caring for the sick in an overwhelmed health care system. The people and the politicians have not changed much. To be fair, there were some small towns which posted arm guards at all entry points and allowed no passage into the town during some waves of the Flu and suffered zero cases. The New York State Training School for girls quarantined itself and suffered no cases. The Trudeau Sanitorium in upstate New York, and a small naval facility in San Francisco, did the same and suffered no cases. Most severely affected by the Spanish Flu were the 20 to 40 year age group. CLOSE CONTACT RE-DEFINED The CDC on Wednesday re-defined "close contact" as a risk factor for the transmission of Covid-19, from 15 consecutive minutes within six feet of a known positive patient, to a cumulative 15 minutes in 24 hours. This does two things; it emphasizes the contagious nature of the virus at this point in time, and it makes much more unlikely that people will realize they have have met the new definition (risk of transmission) of "close contact". HERD IMMUNITY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SARS-CoV 2 S. OMER, PhD JAMA 10-19-20 Herd immunity refers to the protection of susceptible individuals against an infection when sufficiently large proportions of immune individuals exist in the population. The inability of infected individuals to spread an infection due to a lack of contact with sufficient numbers of susceptible people. This state can be gained either through natural immunity (secondary to prior infection) or through vaccination or a combination thereof. The herd immunity threshold is that proportion of the population who have acquired immunity (natural or vaccinated) and can no longer participate in transmission of the disease. The threshold percentage depends on the Ro number (the number of persons infected by a single infected individual in a population with no immunity. Measles has an Ro number of 17 - 18 and Covid -19 has an Ro number of 2-3. Measles, therefore is much more contagious than Covid-19 and would require a higher percentage of immunity in the population to reach herd immunity than needed for herd immunity to Covid-19. For Covid-19 the threshold is about 50 - 67%. The duration or the durability of immunity is important in evaluating population level protection. When immunity is transient the number of susceptible individuals is gradually increasing and outbreaks will reoccur. To be clear, we are discussing outbreaks here, not individual or smallish numbers of people becoming infected as we see yearly with measles. If vaccine immunity is short lived, re-vaccination will be required to keep the percentage of immune individuals above the threshold. It is assumed that the Spanish Flu was halted due to herd immunity and possibly antigen drift which resulted in a strain that was no more deadly than the common cold. It is currently assumed that a patient with Covid-19 remains infectious for approximately 10 days. If all individuals with Covid -19 could be separated from susceptible individuals for longer than 10 days Covid-19 would be eradicated. SARS was eradicated in just this fashion. SARS did not have an asymptomatic infectious period. There are reports of assumed re-infection during the Spanish Flu pandemic, but the proof was based on reports of clinical symptomatology as virologic study was not possible. There are now reports of Covid-19 re-infection, substantiated by virologic study. Early on, Sweden had a plan to allow transmission of the virus unchecked, but that was halted as their healthcare system came under increasing strain. Sweden, despite their efforts, or lack thereof, is still far from reaching herd immunity. If and when a vaccine becomes available, it will be important to achieve uniform distribution of the vaccine so that there are no pockets of susceptible individuals where outbreaks could occur. It will be important also for the distribution process to occur as quickly as is feasible. Obviously, if distribution takes six months but immunity lasts four months, we will not reach the threshold for herd immunity. NUMBERS On 10-23-20 there were 83,000 new cases of Covid reported. This represents the highest number of cases since the pandemic was first declared. This will result in higher bed utilization and deaths in the coming five to ten days. Deaths - 224,906 Hospital bed utilization - every state experienced an increase in hospital bed utilization. Overall for the states I track, there was an increase of 13.2% this week as opposed to 6% last week. Texas leads all states with over 5000 hospitalized with Covid. Weekly new cases - every state experienced an increase in weekly new cases. Wisconsin had the largest percentage increase at 52%. Illinois and Texas led the pack with 31,517 and 37,508 respectively. New Jersey had its ninth consecutive weekly increase. Evil and crises does not make all men rise above themselves. Crises only make them discover themselves (Camus) Enjoy the day Live Safer Be Well
October 31, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, vikas83 said: Because of course he is endangering people just to feed his ego. Unconscionable, Fing pos
November 1, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, M.C. said: Unconscionable, Fing pos Nobody is forcing people to attend Trump rallies. If people are scared of a virus with a lethality rate similar to the flu, they're welcome to stay home.
November 1, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Arsenal79 said: Nobody is forcing people to attend Trump rallies. If people are scared of a virus with a lethality rate similar to the flu, they're welcome to stay home. Large gatherings allow it to spread to more people. I’ll also add this. A lot of people who wear masks aren’t worried about catching it themselves. They’re worried about giving it to their spouse and kids, who will in turn spread it to other people. But what should be common sense is in Trumpworld infringing on "muh freedums”
November 1, 20205 yr I expect Dr. Fauci to be summarily fired after Trump wins re-election. Playing politics to help Shanghai Joe win days before the election is unforgivable. And if Francis Collins refuses, then he’s getting fired too.
November 1, 20205 yr 9 hours ago, Arsenal79 said: I expect Dr. Fauci to be summarily fired after Trump wins re-election. Playing politics to help Shanghai Joe win days before the election is unforgivable. And if Francis Collins refuses, then he’s getting fired too. You say this "playing politics” as if you know what you are talking about. You must be one of those people that uses "paradigm shift” during zoom calls.
November 1, 20205 yr More from the gang that can't shoot straight. If you haven't been paying attention recently Trump has essentially replaced Fauci with Scott Atlas, a notoriously right-wing neuroradiologist as his medical advisor (because...of course). Fauci finally is starting to crack in his interview with the Washington Post: To which Atlas maturely responded: 17 HOURS LATER! RT stands for "Russian Times" (Really buried the lead with that one ) and they are probably the most well known Russian government agency operating within the US. Just absolute and unadulterated incompetence.
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