May 7, 20205 yr 5 hours ago, vikas83 said: Kayleigh McEnany did a good job with the briefing. Amazing to see what happens when someone prepares to answer questions. Yep. Plus she’s hot. So she’s got that going for her.
May 7, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, DEagle7 said: I believe the mortality rate will likely be less than 1%, but as far as I'm aware none of the antibody tests out there are FDA approved currently and while a few have been shown to be decent, the vast majority out there have significant false positive issues. But this is a side-track. Aside from the point that if we want to trust the the very weak data we have currently, 0.5% mortality with a higher R0 than the 1918 flu amongst a population more than triple it was 100 years ago is still a very big deal, your original point and my response had to do with spread, and the effectiveness of shutdowns. As of right now there is absolutely no way you can compare the effectiveness of social distancing vs a lockdown so definitively to say "there are more effective measures" while we're doing them all simultaneously. Aside from the relatively free flowing nature of travel between states, even places like Florida who did it very late still had some degree of lockdown. Even just logically I'm sure you can understand how things like social distancing effectiveness could be significantly impacted by more people being out and about. As far as your cell phone data, all it really suggests is that less people are breaking quarantine more, not that it isn't having an impact on spread. Looking purely at the cases per day the US has not begun to significantly decline like other western countries that shut down (eg France, Italy, Germany). So there is something that is behind that and at the very least it's reasonable to list non-compliance as a suspect. On the topic of other countries we can look at a place that suggested social distancing and masks, but did not shut down: Sweden. They also haven't seen a decline in their cases per day and have higher mortality rate per population than any other scandinavian country. I'd argue that's a much better test comparison than trying to make state-to-state. That's not to say this strategy won't have benefits in the future, but it very much suggests lockdown has a pretty significant impact on spread. Arguing economic impact, the benefits of "getting it out of the way", and the pros and cons of a certain degree of infringement of personal freedom are all reasonable things to debate. Reopening vs continued shutdown is a very complicated issue with no really great outcome. But we need to be honest in the discussion. And saying things like "a lot of infected people in NY claimed they stayed at home so data supports lockdowns aren't effective" and "social distancing is more effective than a lockdown in preventing spread" is intellectually dishonest. Pointing 66% of people who have minimally left their homes are new hospitalizations is surely saying something. A study that Cuomo found important enough to mention to the public. Saying that similarly population dense states have had different results, with some faring better that had minimal or no lockdowns. Honesty would be that the lockdown plans were never meant to stop the spread but increase the length of time at which those same infections would happen therefore decreasing the amount of deaths. Again even Cuomo in NYC called lockdowns unsustainable. He speaks out of both sides of his mouth often, but he's right in this case. In regard to deaths, a lack of protection for those in long term care facilities has been an utter failure. I believe they are make up roughly half the deaths in the US, 70% across PA alone. Most countries will likely end up like Sweden, open with social distancing. The end result of that comparison should give us definitive effectiveness of lockdowns. Won't be known for at least a year or more. There is no easy answer with lives at stake. We could save significant lives lowering the highway speed limits by 15 mph but we don't. Similar decisions regarding opening are near. We need to accept while difficult, they are necassary.
May 7, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, Green_Guinness said: Some people, at least here in NJ, haven't gotten their unemployment yet. I was talking with a rep today and she was telling me how her BF (casino worker) hasn't even been able to get through to NJ unemployment yet. Seems they were giving you certain days to call them based on the last 4 digits of you SSN and now it's down to a half hour window on specific days. So if you don't get through to them in that half hour window then you have to wait until you next turn. She says she also has a friend who is a single mother and she also hasn't gotten her unemployment yet. She's maxed out her CCs and has almost depleted her savings to pay essential bills and for food. Then I had another rep tell me how his son has been getting his unemployment plus the extra $600/week (from the Federal gov't) and his son only works PT and doesn't even usually make $300/week. So now he's getting like $250 in NJ unemployment plus another $600/week so he's making an ish ton more staying home. WTF doesn't NJ unemployment prioritize who get paid first? Like a single mother should be getting paid before a college age kid living at home. This whole thing has been F'd up on so many levels by so many different gov't agencies. Epic fail across the board. I absolutely agree. None of it makes any sense on who is getting the help and who isn't. I men's my parents are getting the extra 600 a week which it's my parents so I'm happy they are getting money but at the same time it's complete BS that I'm going to work to make an extra 50 bucks a week. My neighbor hasn't worked in a month same deal as the girl you are talking about. Single mom and they only just sent her the first unemployment check last week. This week they called her back to work 2 days a week so she loses unemployment and now has to pay a babysitter for those 2 days
May 7, 20205 yr It’s a nightmare for single moms who have kids that would normally be at school. I don’t know anyone off the top of my head in that boat, but it’s easy for me to see how that would be a struggle.
May 7, 20205 yr 9 hours ago, vikas83 said: Kayleigh McEnany did a good job with the briefing. Amazing to see what happens when someone prepares to answer questions. I saw the first one she did and she was excellent and tough as nails. If she can withstand the beatings over time she is going to be very effective.
May 7, 20205 yr 12 hours ago, vikas83 said: Kayleigh McEnany did a good job with the briefing. Amazing to see what happens when someone prepares to answer questions. This does make one wonder why they kept putting people in the position who seemed surprise to have to answer any.
May 7, 20205 yr The CDC is full of liberal hand wringers who just want America to fail. That is why Soros had the Chinese make this virus.
May 7, 20205 yr The mortality rate in South Korea looks to be about 2.3 percent. South Korea appears to be aware of nearly every case, so I don't know whether any other countries have gotten better numbers than that. The "excess deaths" metric seems to show that a lot of coronavirus deaths in the US aren't being recorded. That kind of data is messy because there are lots of factors going into "excess deaths," but in the end those are going to be the most accurate numbers we're going to get.
May 7, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, Dave Moss said: It’s a nightmare for single moms who have kids that would normally be at school. I don’t know anyone off the top of my head in that boat, but it’s easy for me to see how that would be a struggle. My wife lost her job but spends all day working with my kids with their home schooling. I have no idea what we'd do if she was working.
May 7, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Gannan said: My wife lost her job but spends all day working with my kids with their home schooling. I have no idea what we'd do if she was working. Which is exactly why we should be focusing on schools and day cares including summer camps. How can we get the economy back rolling if people have to worry about child care. My wife and I are both full time working from home and we are barely able to make it work with home schooling the kids. I have no clue what we would do if one of us was told we had to go back to the office full time with the kids still out. And that's serious. We can barely get our work done with the time involved with the kids. We aren't interested in constantly doting over them nor are we interested in just sitting them in front of the TV or ipads.. it has to be a balance and that is like a combined 3rd full time job in the house.
May 7, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Smokesdawg said: Which is exactly why we should be focusing on schools and day cares including summer camps. How can we get the economy back rolling if people have to worry about child care. My wife and I are both full time working from home and we are barely able to make it work with home schooling the kids. I have no clue what we would do if one of us was told we had to go back to the office full time with the kids still out. And that's serious. We can barely get our work done with the time involved with the kids. We aren't interested in constantly doting over them nor are we interested in just sitting them in front of the TV or ipads.. it has to be a balance and that is like a combined 3rd full time job in the house. Which is why we flipped that around here in Sweden. We left the pre-k thru 10th grade schools open and only closed the senior high schools and universities AND asked everyone who possibly could to work from home.
May 7, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, Smokesdawg said: Which is exactly why we should be focusing on schools and day cares including summer camps. How can we get the economy back rolling if people have to worry about child care. My wife and I are both full time working from home and we are barely able to make it work with home schooling the kids. I have no clue what we would do if one of us was told we had to go back to the office full time with the kids still out. And that's serious. We can barely get our work done with the time involved with the kids. We aren't interested in constantly doting over them nor are we interested in just sitting them in front of the TV or ipads.. it has to be a balance and that is like a combined 3rd full time job in the house. I'm also working from home. Generally putting in 70-80 hours a week. I don't know what I'd do if she was working at the hospital and I was home alone with the kids. My son is in first grade. He's smart and good at school but he needs a lot of direction because he's in first grade. My daughter is in 4th grade, hates school and won't do anything unless my wife is on top of her all the time. I can't even imagine them not going back in the fall. We have to figure something out before then. Even if it means all the kids wear masks.
May 7, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Smokesdawg said: Which is exactly why we should be focusing on schools and day cares including summer camps. How can we get the economy back rolling if people have to worry about child care. My wife and I are both full time working from home and we are barely able to make it work with home schooling the kids. I have no clue what we would do if one of us was told we had to go back to the office full time with the kids still out. And that's serious. We can barely get our work done with the time involved with the kids. We aren't interested in constantly doting over them nor are we interested in just sitting them in front of the TV or ipads.. it has to be a balance and that is like a combined 3rd full time job in the house. Focussing how, though? We know everyone's gonna be careful when it comes to schools. My kids are past daycare now, and since most are private, they'll work from a different timeline, but they're still going to err on the side of caution there. Summercamps are already out. We had our kids signed up for a few but they're long since cancelled now. I'm just hoping things can get cranking back up in the fall because otherwise my son's going to go full Tron and get sucked into a video game and my daughter's gonna kill everybody in the house.
May 7, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, Gannan said: My wife lost her job but spends all day working with my kids with their home schooling. I have no idea what we'd do if she was working. Sorry to hear about your wife losing her job man, that stinks 😞 We have a 20 month old, we’ve basically been working in rotating shifts throughout the day to make it work. And I’ve cut back slightly on my hours.
May 7, 20205 yr Just now, Phillyterp85 said: Sorry to hear about your wife losing her job man, that stinks 😞 We have a 20 month old, we’ve basically been working in rotating shifts throughout the day to make it work. And I’ve cut back slightly on my hours. It does. We are watching our savings drop every month when bills are due. We are hoping she gets called back to work some time this summer. fwiw we are still waiting on our stimulus checks. The $500 per child would come in handy right about now.
May 7, 20205 yr 12 minutes ago, Gannan said: It does. We are watching our savings drop every month when bills are due. We are hoping she gets called back to work some time this summer. fwiw we are still waiting on our stimulus checks. The $500 per child would come in handy right about now. Make sure that you check that website for the stimulus. When ours didn't come through in the first round, it was because for some reason they didn't have our direct deposit information, even though it was on our tax returns for the last... forever. We ultimately got ours on April 30. It was lower than it should have been because our accountant f-ed up our tax return in February and had to file an amended return (paper only). Well, they aren't processing paper returns at all right now, so we got a lower payment than we should have now; however, we will have about a $750 tax credit remaining when we file our taxes next year, once the amended return is processed.
May 7, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Smokesdawg said: Make sure that you check that website for the stimulus. When ours didn't come through in the first round, it was because for some reason they didn't have our direct deposit information, even though it was on our tax returns for the last... forever. We ultimately got ours on April 30. It was lower than it should have been because our accountant f-ed up our tax return in February and had to file an amended return (paper only). Well, they aren't processing paper returns at all right now, so we got a lower payment than we should have now; however, we will have about a $750 tax credit remaining when we file our taxes next year, once the amended return is processed. Thanks, I'll do that
May 7, 20205 yr 16 minutes ago, Smokesdawg said: Make sure that you check that website for the stimulus. When ours didn't come through in the first round, it was because for some reason they didn't have our direct deposit information, even though it was on our tax returns for the last... forever. We ultimately got ours on April 30. It was lower than it should have been because our accountant f-ed up our tax return in February and had to file an amended return (paper only). Well, they aren't processing paper returns at all right now, so we got a lower payment than we should have now; however, we will have about a $750 tax credit remaining when we file our taxes next year, once the amended return is processed. Looks like we cant get a stimulus because they still haven't processed our 2019 return (even though we filed it months ago).
May 7, 20205 yr 18 hours ago, Gannan said: It only took one post pointing out the difference between a drive through hack and an epidemiologist to get you go from zero to deranged in under 2 minutes. Beat my own record. The fact that people can't discern what expertise is, or what makes someone an expert speaks to my overall point about the intelligence level of our society. Let's try this another way... While these 2 characters have medical degrees, their medical opinions are not equal... beta owned again!
May 7, 20205 yr 13 minutes ago, Gannan said: Looks like we cant get a stimulus because they still haven't processed our 2019 return (even though we filed it months ago). From my memory, i thought they were allowing people to base their payment off of 2018 if they hadn't processed the 2019 return.
May 7, 20205 yr 14 hours ago, DEagle7 said: I believe the mortality rate will likely be less than 1%, but as far as I'm aware none of the antibody tests out there are FDA approved currently and while a few have been shown to be decent, the vast majority out there have significant false positive issues. But this is a side-track. Aside from the point that if we want to trust the the very weak data we have currently, 0.5% mortality with a higher R0 than the 1918 flu amongst a population more than triple it was 100 years ago is still a very big deal, your original point and my response had to do with spread, and the effectiveness of shutdowns. As of right now there is absolutely no way you can compare the effectiveness of social distancing vs a lockdown so definitively to say "there are more effective measures" while we're doing them all simultaneously. Aside from the relatively free flowing nature of travel between states, even places like Florida who did it very late still had some degree of lockdown. Even just logically I'm sure you can understand how things like social distancing effectiveness could be significantly impacted by more people being out and about. As far as your cell phone data, all it really suggests is that less people are breaking quarantine more, not that it isn't having an impact on spread. Looking purely at the cases per day the US has not begun to significantly decline like other western countries that shut down (eg France, Italy, Germany). So there is something that is behind that and at the very least it's reasonable to list non-compliance as a suspect. On the topic of other countries we can look at a place that suggested social distancing and masks, but did not shut down: Sweden. They also haven't seen a decline in their cases per day and have higher mortality rate per population than any other scandinavian country. I'd argue that's a much better test comparison than trying to make state-to-state. That's not to say this strategy won't have benefits in the future, but it very much suggests lockdown has a pretty significant impact on spread. Arguing economic impact, the benefits of "getting it out of the way", and the pros and cons of a certain degree of infringement of personal freedom are all reasonable things to debate. Reopening vs continued shutdown is a very complicated issue with no really great outcome. But we need to be honest in the discussion. And saying things like "a lot of infected people in NY claimed they stayed at home so data supports lockdowns aren't effective" and "social distancing is more effective than a lockdown in preventing spread" is intellectually dishonest. My wife and son took FDA approved antibody tests last week. My wife's came back negative, no results on my son yet. The tests they took are said to be 98% effective. Previously used in Europe.
May 7, 20205 yr 53 minutes ago, Smokesdawg said: From my memory, i thought they were allowing people to base their payment off of 2018 if they hadn't processed the 2019 return. Supposedly but things apparently changed. I'm in the same boat. I also owed both years so maybe thats why 2018 doesn't work for me. Quote The Get My Payment application will return "Payment Status Not Available" for several reasons, including: You are required to file a tax return, but: We haven't finished processing your 2019 return
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