Heh.
 

Quote

UK variant has mutated again, scientists say

The Kent variant of coronavirus that has been spreading in the UK appears to be undergoing some 'worrying' new genetic changes, say scientists.

Tests on some samples show a mutation, called E484K, already seen in the South Africa and Brazil variants that are of concern.

Although this change may reduce vaccine effectiveness, the current ones in use should still work, say experts.

The UK has already stepped up measures to control the spread of new variants.

Urgent testing for the South Africa variant is starting in parts of England and travel restrictions have been introduced to stop more cases entering from abroad.

Experts working with Public Health England have only found a handful of cases of the UK variant with the E484K mutation - it was seen in 11 out of 214,159 samples that they tested.

It's not unexpected that variants are appearing or that they will continue to change - all viruses mutate as they make new copies of themselves to spread and thrive.

Dr Julian Tang, a virus expert at the University of Leicester, described the finding as "a worrying development, though not entirely unexpected".

He said it was important people follow the lockdown rules and get cases of coronavirus down to prevent opportunities for the virus to mutate further.

"Otherwise not only can the virus continue to spread, it can also evolve."

He said that allowing spread could allow a "melting pot" for different emerging variants.

Scientists have already been checking what these new mutations might mean for existing coronavirus vaccines that were designed around earlier versions of the virus that started the pandemic.

Some research appears to show E484K may help the virus evade parts of the immune system called antibodies.

But early results from Moderna suggest its vaccine is still effective against variants with this mutation - although the body's immune response may not be as strong or prolonged.

Two new coronavirus vaccines that could be approved soon - one from Novavax and another from Janssen - also appear to offer good cover against variants, protecting against serious illness.

Even in the worst case scenario, vaccines can be redesigned and tweaked to be a better match in a matter or weeks or months, if necessary, say experts.

A silver lining may be that the variants are mutating in a similar way rather than diverging from each other.

Prof Ravi Gupta from the University of Cambridge said: "This gives us a sign that it has certain favoured routes - and we can work to block those off with a vaccine."

Former UK health secretary Jeremy Hunt said the race was on to vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible in order to keep a step ahead of the virus.

Measures such as washing your hands, keeping your distance from other people and wearing a face covering will still help prevent infections.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55900625

 

4 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

We are going to be living with COVID for the rest of our lives but it will not put the restrictions on us that we are currently experiencing. We have to believe that because otherwise we will all just give up.

Not just from a psychological perspective, but also from a scientific one. This virus does not mutate nearly as fast as the flu. It takes a while for the surface proteins to recombine in meaningful ways on coronaviruses. Heck it took 9 months for variants to emerge that were more contagious and virulent than previously predominant strains. Meanwhile, Moderna's first mRNA candidate was developed in a matter of days once the first strain was sequenced. And the entire reason why the UK and SA strains are emerging is because of how much unmitigated spread there is in those regions.

Mutations are like lottery tickets. And each time this virus passes from one human to another, is like the virus buying a lottery ticket. The vast majority of lottery tickets don't hit on a number, but the ones that do hit on at least one number can be seen as a mutation in the genetic code. Now just because you hit one number, doesn't mean that mutation will amount to anything. You have to hit all the right numbers in the right order to win the lottery, and that's what the UK and SA strains have done after several months. So how do we stop the virus from mutating as much to mitigate the risk of more virulent variants? We stop it from buying lottery tickets, and that's exactly what the current vaccines will result in. Fewer lottery tickets = fewer mutations = fewer dominant strains until eventually, we get this under control and outbreaks only become regional. It's for this reason that I don't think we will have to live with this for the rest of our lives, just as we don't have to live with malaria or polio, or other pathogens that are still present in some regions, but not in the majority of regions.

1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I think this is the reasonable outlook at this stage. It will very possibly go from being an epidemic disease to an endemic one.

I think we have to accept that life may well change going forwards. I can see them encouraging the use of masks in supermarkets. I can see them keeping the sanitisers that we now have in supermarkets to clean trolleys etc. I can see them putting some things in place that will be with us certainly for the medium term but I don't think we will have these restrictions on us for much more than the next 6-12 months. I think in the UK our summer will be pretty free (within our own country). Maybe I am being too optimistic but if I think of the worst case then I will spiral in to a negative mindset.

2 hours ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

Heh.
 

 

Great they can adjust the vaccine, problem is every new vaccine has to be tested for months then distributed to everyone in the world, that takes years. Do people seriously believe that lets say in a few months, there won't be a variant that makes the current vaccine almost useless?

Just now, Joe Shades 73 said:

Great they can adjust the vaccine, problem is every new vaccine has to be tested for months then distributed to everyone in the world, that takes years

It won't take years to distribute it to a majority of the population of the US. You look at life as if it were a step function. It's not. Deep breaths my dude, we are gonna get through this and be stronger for it.

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

It won't take years to distribute it to a majority of the population of the US. You look at life as if it were a step function. It's not. Deep breaths my dude, we are gonna get through this and be stronger for it.

I know much of the problem of the rollout is because of the last buffoon in office but how long has it been since development of the vaccine and now and look where we are at, 2% of Population vaccinated. I wake up and there already is a new variant

So in the UK there's growing belief that the AstraZeneca vaccine actually helps slow and reduce transmission. That's huge if true. 

9 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

So in the UK there's growing belief that the AstraZeneca vaccine actually helps slow and reduce transmission. That's huge if true. 

They almost certainly are all helping to slow and reduce transmission. Of the 5 that have reported phase III data, it's probably the weakest one in terms of efficacy.

 

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

They almost certainly are all helping to slow and reduce transmission. Of the 5 that have reported phase III data, it's probably the weakest one in terms of efficacy.

 

And that's more great news. This is what we need!

2 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

So in the UK there's growing belief that the AstraZeneca vaccine actually helps slow and reduce transmission. That's huge if true. 

Next week is the real test.

So I  just had disturbing thought imagine that.  Was in a group text today with high school friends today.  One is health care (admin) at Nemours in DE. She was first to be vaccinated.  My other friend today who’s a teacher says she got her shot at the Red Clay Room (Next to KSQ fire company)and then says somebody shared it on social media and KSQ site was shut down. I could only respond with are you truly a 1a?  Or are there secret vaccination sites not allowed to be shared.  Then my other friends mother had passed away so ended it there. She sent me links to rite aid. Right.  We see how that’s going.  I asked her if KSQ is shut down where are you getting your 2nd shot?  Don’t expect an answer but this news sort of disturbed me.  Surely there are folks going to try and jump ahead in line.  As competitive as I am, this is not the time to cheat.  

Eventually "captain trips" will make it's rounds. All of this will be futility.

9 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I think we have to accept that life may well change going forwards. I can see them encouraging the use of masks in supermarkets. I can see them keeping the sanitisers that we now have in supermarkets to clean trolleys etc. I can see them putting some things in place that will be with us certainly for the medium term but I don't think we will have these restrictions on us for much more than the next 6-12 months. I think in the UK our summer will be pretty free (within our own country). Maybe I am being too optimistic but if I think of the worst case then I will spiral in to a negative mindset.

We have had sanitizer in supermarkets for years to clean carts and your hands before shopping for like the last 10 yrs or more. As far as masks go they can encourage it but, can't enforce it I think that will decrease over rthe next few months leading into spring. 

Unless there is a vaccine that is 100% effective at stopping transmission, politicians will use the excuse that there is a possibility someone may die or even just get sick to impose restrictions on people

9 hours ago, lynched1 said:

Eventually "captain trips" will make it's rounds. All of this will be futility.

You can't keep up with a virus if you need to adjust the vaccines and then have months of tests.......Damn I was going to try and be more positive

15 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

Unless there is a vaccine that is 100% effective at stopping transmission, politicians will use the excuse that there is a possibility someone may die or even just get sick to impose restrictions on people

Do me a favor and don't quote my posts with your nonsense. Find someone else to drag down into your misery. 

2 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Do me a favor and don't quote my posts with your nonsense. Find someone else to drag down into your misery. 

Happy now?

1/31/21 COVID-19 Update

https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2021/02/13121-covid-19-update.html

This week I have looked at the very emotional issue (possibly controversial) of opening schools during the Covid - 19 pandemic.

Many school systems are carrying on through virtual classes, some are a mix of in person and virtual and some are mostly in person.

The issues:

1.  possible decrement in the learning curve for children

2. the emotional effects on children

3. transmission of the disease to the staff

4. economic effects of parents who find it difficult to find or afford day care while they work

5. the stress on parents working from home and tending to children not in school

6.  sustaining or increasing transmission of the virus

7.  reading all the impassioned articles, with vigorously stated opinions, based on very little science

COVID-19 CASES AND TRANSMISSION IN 17 K-12 SCHOOLS - WOOD COUNTY WISCONSIN, AUGUST 31 NOVEMBER 29 2020

Weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report (CDC)

Amy Falk, MD

1-29-21

There were 17 schools (in school learning), 4876 students,(1529 from elementary schools, 3347 from 6th to 12th grade) 654 staff members included in the investigation.

During the study widespread transmission in the surrounding communities ranged from 7% to 40%.

Mask compliance was very high in the study schools at 92%. Small cohorts and distancing were important mitigation tools that were also utilized. 

There were 191 positive Covid-19 Tests among the 5530 participants during the study ( 1:29 individuals - - during the same time period in the US there were 1:40 positive tests)

In the study group 3453/100,000 tested positive

In the surrounding community 5466/100,000) tested positive

133 cases were found in the children (2.7% infection rate)

58 in the staff (8.8% infection rate)

7 of the 191 cases were attributed to in school transmission.  Five in in the elementary school age (71% of the infections in the students and the elementary grade students represented only 31.3% of the total number of students, so transmission was very over represented in this group)) and two in the high school age.  No staff member was felt to have acquired the disease from in school transmission.

Conclusions that may be inferred from this study:

1.  high mask compliance will reduce the transmission rate. (lots of people having been saying that for quite sometime)

2.  When mask compliance is, high teachers are more likely to acquire the disease outside of the school system (maybe they should spend more time in school)

3.  young children will spread the disease (is it possible that the younger children were less compliant with masks?)

Surveillance testing was not performed.  The smaller observed rate of infections (2.7%) in children may result from a lower symptomatic rate in children, thus less frequently tested.  The answer to this possibility needs to be found, it is a consistent weakness in all investigative studies of transmission in children.  DUPLICATING THE SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT THAT WAS PRODUCED IN THESE SCHOOLS SEEMS A SAFE WAY TO SEND CHILDREN BACK TO SCHOOL.

PRREVALANCE OF SARS-COv-2 INFECTION IN CHILDREN AND THEIR PARENTS IN SOUTHWEST GERMANY

JAMA Pediatrics

1-22-21

B. Tonshoff MD

TO SPREAD OR NOT TO SPREAD SARS-COv-2 - IS THE QUESTION

JAMA Pediatrics

1-22-21

S. O. Leary, MD

The question of the advisability of sending children back to school is a relevant concern to parents, teachers, physicians and society as a whole.

The study by Tonshoff performed PCR testing on 2482 children aged 1 - 10 and 2482 corresponding parents from April to May 2020. This relatively short period of time occurred during a lockdown.  The study also included testing for IgG antibodies using an ELISA platform.

During the study there were only two positive tests, a child and a parent from the same household.

Overall seroconversion was low at 1.8% in adults and 0.6% in children.  This does not reflect infection during the study period but would obviously infer infections prior to the study period.

Among 56 families with at least one seropositive child or parent, seropositive parents living with with seronegative children were 4.3 fold more common than seropositive children living with seronegative parents. (this would suggest that transmission from children to parent is less common)

What did we know before this study?

1.  children account for a smaller proportion of cases than would be expected based on the size of the childhood population (but much larger than we thought back in March of 2019)

2.  rates of hospitalization and death are lower in children than in adults

This study does not tell us what the prevalence of positive PCR tests were before the lockdown.

What we need to know:

1.  do children seroconvert at the same rate as adults?  This study uses seroconversion as a proxy for prior infection.

2.  We need to have a surveillance study including children that would inform us of the true infection rate in children

The seroconversion rate in adults in this study of 1.8% is smaller than the seroconversion rate found by the CDC in an investigation of archived Red Cross blood samples from mid December 2019 from California (2%)

With only two positive cases (one in a child, one in an adult), this study and the accompanying editorial provide no scientific proof for answering the question of the safety of sending children back to school.  It does highlight the questions that need to be answered to scientifically address the school question. The conclusion of Dr. O Leary, that we should open the schools immediately,  is not based on fact but on emotion or personal agenda. 

EVALUATION OF THE ABBOTT BinaxNOW RAPID ANTIGEN TEST FOR SARS-CoV-2 INFECTION IN TWO COMMUNITY BASED TESTING SITES - PIMA COUNTY ARIZONA

Weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report (CDC)

1-22-21

3419  PCR Tests

303 positive

Compared with PCR tests in asymptomatic patients the Abbott test had a specificity of 35.8%

Compared with PCR tests in Symptomatic patients that Abbott test had a specificity of 64.2%

NUMBERS

Vaccines - we have now vaccinated 30.5 million people, 5,47 million people have received two doses, we averaged 1.35 million vaccinations a day during the last seven days, and we are still just warming up.

Deaths - 439,536, 22,159 for the week (up from 18,218)  I know of two people who met the criteria for monoclonal antibodies who died in the last seven days and did not receive them. Both of these individuals slipped through the medical safety net.  That is just awful.  No individual who meets the criteria for monoclonal antibody administration should die without them.  They need to be given early, preferably in the first five days after diagnosis.  They are 80% effective in preventing disease.  If you know someone who meets the criteria and has been recently diagnosed with COVID please encourage them to seek this life saving treatment, be a pest.  It is not often you get to save a life.

New weekly infections - up 4.2% but down from 5.2% the week before

Hospital bed utilization - 109,000, down from 113,609 the week before

Case fatality rate since 10/15/20 - 1.24% (up a tick from last week 1.18%)

Live Safer

Be Well

This seems a bit insane...

 

The last two posts are excellent.  So nuance does indeed count.  I was told there was absolutely nothing to discuss.

Queue the obligatory WeTard hysterical reply.

1 hour ago, Dawkins 20 said:

This seems a bit insane...

 

That might be why they are winning.

Haven't been in here in a while. The misery is strong. We will be ok. My wife got her first vaccine dose yesterday. I asked if they had any extras laying around, they did not. 

One thing I've never understood through this ordeal is peoples insistence that politicians just are dying to shut everything down and force you to wear a mask. Like yeah there are plenty of F'd up politicians but why would anyone want this? I get that they may be more cautious or reactionary than some regular people may want them to be, but the idea that they just wake up in the morning itching to halt life altogether is weird. 

28 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

That might be why they are winning.

You really get to see who is into freedom and who would literally give everything up for a little bit of security in a situation like this. It's fascinating, really.

I've been teaching in a 4-day school week (Weds. are for virtual office hours) hybrid environment since September, except for a two-month shutdown from Nov.-Jan. when the second wave took off. My school has been very conscious of following CDC guidelines, performing contact tracing, and isolating staff/students who have tested positive or been exposed, and even doing building-wide shutdowns when cases have spread too much. I'm grateful for their conscientious approach and feel safe here. However, I know that many districts are not being so careful. For us, I feel that we might be able to get through the rest of the year staying hybrid.

My takeaway, and what seems to be ignored in reports of low transmission in schools, is that schools can safely reopen in a hybrid environment if they strictly adhere to the guidances. A big reason why transmission has been low in schools is because of hybrid teaching, strict mask wearing, sanitizing, social distancing, etc. occurring more reliably than in the general population. More or less, the contingencies are working, and schools can operate safely if they are strictly adhered to. This does not mean that it is safe yet for schools to fully reopen and become lax on preventive measures.

31 minutes ago, Kz! said:

You really get to see who is into freedom and who would literally give everything up for a little bit of security in a situation like this. It's fascinating, really.

it's the other way around numbnuts.  They shut down for 5 days and then go right back to having concerts, movie theaters, sporting events and church.  It's been a friggin' year mate, how do you still not get it?