February 20, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said: I'm am not an epidemiologist, but I am a trained historian. Interestingly, one of my last classes for my Master's was "Epidemics in World History," which at the time seemed kind of obscure, but I'm so glad I took that course. It really put things in perspective. Two points that I take away from that are: A) Modern medicine has made pandemics much less devastating and manageable than before, not only by offering the hope of ultimately snuffing out novel viruses with vaccines, but also by validating safe-practices that allow us to live and function in a society long-term, even while the pandemic is ongoing. B) Pandemics always end, whether through natural of vaccine-induced heard immunity, evolutionary mechanisms show that microbial infestations eventually run the same course as invasive species: they compete for resources (hosts) until the limited availability of their breeding grounds becomes significant enough to control its prevalence. Even if COVID-19 is not eradicated, it will either substantially abate in prevalence and virulence to the point of either being a rare disease that can be easily isolated in populations that can be targeted for treatment, or it will become an endemic disease that, while widespread and commonly occurring, ultimately manifests itself in a predictable fashion that can be sufficiently treated with pharmaceuticals that at least reduce the incidence and severity of disease. This is a fact that follows logically from principals of evolutionary biology. Like animals, viruses exist to reproduce and pass on DNA, and they can only do this to the extent that circumstances provide the resources necessary for reproduction. When those resources become limited, the virus responds accordingly in ways that maintain the availability of hosts, which often means that it evolves in ways that allow it to exist in a kind of symbiosis with its hosts to the extent that prevalence requires a more innocuous epidemiology that allows it to propagate more freely as common illness that regularly circulates through large populations. Viruses need breeding grounds, and their populations will contract accordingly if their host reservoirs become too limited to support it. So, either way, we'll eventually come out the other side, whether through eradication, or more likely, learning to live with an virus that is widespread buy less likely to cause severe illness. This will be long haul, but as COVID-19 specifically and coronaviruses generally circulate more widely, combined with the mitigating effect of vaccines, we will at least learn to live with this virus as a minor annoyance and with a more conscious eye to hygiene and sanitary practices. Oh, well that's reassuring, the phillies will also win another World Series, it will be a long haul but hey be positive
February 20, 20214 yr 6 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Oh, well that's reassuring, the phillies will also win another World Series, it will be a long haul but hey be positive I think we'll see a return to largely "normal" life within 2-3 years from the beginning of the pandemic. That sounds about right in my mind, but things will being to slowly and noticeably improve by this year's end. I could see the Phillies being a contender by then, as well, if some things break in our favor, so you might be onto something... 🙂.
February 20, 20214 yr 16 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: I think we'll see a return to largely "normal" life within 2-3 years from the beginning of the pandemic. That sounds about right in my mind, but things will being to slowly and noticeably improve by this year's end. I could see the Phillies being a contender by then, as well, if some things break in our favor, so you might be onto something... 🙂. So since it it is quotes that means never, all you are doing is saying the same things I am but dressing it up to seem more positive, this could happen, that could happen, sure ok, but not likely, Phillies could get lucky and win in 2 years, could happen, will it? less than 5% chance
February 20, 20214 yr 6 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said: No, it's the literally same thing I told you. Pandemic over by year's end. Ok $100 bet be to be paid to loser's favorite charity. Here is what i consider over, no more restrictions other than international travel overseas, full stadiums, no more masks or social distancing, border open with Canada so sports is totally back to normal, Covid deaths near zero. Or the CDC saying pandemic over Sure end of the year https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/us/politics/coronavirus-vaccine.html With Vaccine Delay, Biden Warns of Uncertain End to Pandemic On a visit to a vaccine manufacturing" plant in Michigan, President Biden said the nation could be "approaching normalcy” by the end of the year, but said new virus variants could slow progress.
February 20, 20214 yr PA just failed first in no clear communication. Our seniors were to be 1st in line. They also changed the rules as some providers were slated to receive vaccines but now that’s not happening either. My dentist even was looking to give vaccines, and just was told no vaccines coming. He sent an email, he’s pissed. Penn is at least updating and communicating with their patients. They are vaccinating in city proper only at present. Two drug store chains you can get in but maybe not in your town or county for that matter. I use the Acme and no communication from them yet. Hopeful just need to get thru the initial cluster f which could take another month or so and maybe then things will flow more efficiently. We’ll see.
February 20, 20214 yr If interested I was just reading this. Dismal. https://mailchi.mp/chesco/chester-county-health-department-covid-19-vaccine-update-4754150?e=57d47cf7ea
February 20, 20214 yr Weekly Sweden update. The downside of the 2nd wave looks to be in a plateau causing some worry that a third wave may hit. There may be other explanations though including the spreading to more remote areas as people move about engaging in winter fresh air activities (that of course include some time inside before and after). Restrictions remain steady. An article came out this week comparing this pandemic to historical outbreaks with the conclusion that the numbers are inline with other events in terms of relative Swedish results vs. other areas and countries. In summary, Sweden has fared far better than the vast majority of Europe and not as good as other Nordic countries (same as in earlier events ; btw - The gap with Denmark has gone from 5:1 down to 3:1 and closing for COVID deaths). Good to see we have some actual discussion allowed in here all of a sudden on things like herd immunity (when, how, etc.). Have to laugh at how we still have some laymen posters writing as if they are world renowned experts. This is a complicated subject both scientifically and also from a social policy perspective. That's just the nature of the beast.
February 20, 20214 yr 7 hours ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Ok $100 bet be to be paid to loser's favorite charity. Here is what i consider over, no more restrictions other than international travel overseas, full stadiums, no more masks or social distancing, border open with Canada so sports is totally back to normal, Covid deaths near zero. Or the CDC saying pandemic over Sure end of the year https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/us/politics/coronavirus-vaccine.html With Vaccine Delay, Biden Warns of Uncertain End to Pandemic On a visit to a vaccine manufacturing" plant in Michigan, President Biden said the nation could be "approaching normalcy” by the end of the year, but said new virus variants could slow progress. I'm referring to an actual objective WHO declaration, not your goofy subjective one. Masks will still be here for winter. I've said this a hundred times. Suck it up, it's a piece of cloth not a F'ing anchor you big baby.
February 20, 20214 yr I've been analyzing the new infection statistics and if the U.S. (and rest of the world, to an extent) continues at this pace, we should see drastic reductions in new infection rates by the end of March and by the end of April, new infection rates should be down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2020. The U.S. is already down over 60% in new infection rates since its peak in mid January. 60 million people have been vaccinated plus another 28 million or so infected. That's close to 100 million people that have (at least) some form of resistance to the virus; meaning that true herd immunity should already be "working" to an extent. And true herd immunity works exponentially, meaning the drop in new infections should come rapidly. This is an educated guess on my part (done by statistical research) but if I'm correct, we should be almost out of this by the end of April. We shall see.
February 20, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, Ace Nova said: I've been analyzing the new infection statistics and if the U.S. (and rest of the world, to an extent) continues at this pace, we should see drastic reductions in new infection rates by the end of March and by the end of April, new infection rates should be down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2020. The U.S. is already down over 60% in new infection rates since its peak in mid January. 60 million people have been vaccinated plus another 28 million or so infected. That's close to 100 million people that have (at least) some form of resistance to the virus; meaning that true herd immunity should already be "working" to an extent. And true herd immunity works exponentially, meaning the drop in new infections should come rapidly. This is an educated guess on my part (done by statistical research) but if I'm correct, we should be almost out of this by the end of April. We shall see. One thing to keep in consideration, we really can't trust infection rates from the beginning of the pandemic. Testing was virtually non-existent so numbers were probably much much higher. I've been watching the death count since that will likely be a much more accurate metric to compare how we are doing vs how we did in the past. The drop in those numbers are also encouraging:
February 20, 20214 yr You might be able to infer something based on the % of positive tests BUT you have to look at who was being tested.
February 20, 20214 yr 3 minutes ago, paco said: One thing to keep in consideration, we really can't trust infection rates from the beginning of the pandemic. Testing was virtually non-existent so numbers were probably much much higher. I've been watching the death count since that will likely be a much more accurate metric to compare how we are doing vs how we did in the past. The drop in those numbers are also encouraging: I agree. Also, keep in mind that the current "death rates" are from people who were likely infected 2-4 weeks ago (closer to the "peak" of new infection rates, meaning that the death rates in a few weeks should also be drastically less. (And when I mean "drastically less" it should look like a "cliff" on that graph.)
February 20, 20214 yr 38 minutes ago, Ace Nova said: I've been analyzing the new infection statistics and if the U.S. (and rest of the world, to an extent) continues at this pace, we should see drastic reductions in new infection rates by the end of March and by the end of April, new infection rates should be down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2020. The U.S. is already down over 60% in new infection rates since its peak in mid January. 60 million people have been vaccinated plus another 28 million or so infected. That's close to 100 million people that have (at least) some form of resistance to the virus; meaning that true herd immunity should already be "working" to an extent. And true herd immunity works exponentially, meaning the drop in new infections should come rapidly. This is an educated guess on my part (done by statistical research) but if I'm correct, we should be almost out of this by the end of April. We shall see. The issue I see globally is the WHO dragging their feet to declare an end just as they did to declare it a pandemic in March. To be fair though, other countries will significantly lag in rollout as well, which complicates things, but by and large, we'll at least be on track domestically to loosen the bulk of restrictions by late spring or early summer.
February 20, 20214 yr And I'll also say something to the credit of those in charge of the vaccine rollout thus far, while the tendency to blame the previous administration for any issues was always present, I don't know that it's been as big of a disaster nationally as it was initially painted as. I know patience is difficult in times like these but it was never realistic to expect home runs in all our at bats when it came to distribution. So all things considered, I give the team in charge of it since November a C or C+. Could it have been better? Of course. Was it an unmitigated disaster? Not even close. It easily could've been much worse. Don't believe me? Refer to the botched roll out of approved test kits this time a year ago.
February 20, 20214 yr 2 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said: I'm referring to an actual objective WHO declaration, not your goofy subjective one. Masks will still be here for winter. I've said this a hundred times. Suck it up, it's a piece of cloth not a F'ing anchor you big baby. Yeah that’s not happening
February 20, 20214 yr Good article on reaching herd immunity. Shows how different variables affect the curves of natural and vaccine initiated immunity. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html
February 20, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: Good article on reaching herd immunity. Shows how different variables affect the curves of natural and vaccine initiated immunity. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html There is no doubt that will happen, all it takes is one bad mutation and it is a minimum another year of this on top of the rest of this year "There’s a chance a mutation could lead to a version of the virus that doesn’t respond to existing immunity, leading us to start the journey to herd immunity all over again".
February 20, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, Joe Shades 73 said: There is no doubt that will happen, all it takes is one bad mutation and it is a minimum another year of this on top of the rest of this year "There’s a chance a mutation could lead to a version of the virus that doesn’t respond to existing immunity, leading us to start the journey to herd immunity all over again". Oh ok. Hmm, yea I guess it could mutate, I hadn't thought of it that way. Good thing you brought it up.
February 20, 20214 yr 5 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: Oh ok. Hmm, yea I guess it could mutate, I hadn't thought of it that way. Good thing you brought it up. Not the point.
February 20, 20214 yr Some of you live in this fantasy land where the pandemic is over, the Republicans party is dead and Trump is prison. None of those things are reality. Be great if if was true but will not happen. Deal with the terrible reality.
February 20, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Some of you live in this fantasy land where the pandemic is over, the Republicans party is dead and Trump is prison. None of those things are reality. Be great if if was true but will not happen. Deal with the terrible reality. I have to be honest. Your existence is so miserable, I don’t know why you go on.
February 20, 20214 yr 6 minutes ago, vikas83 said: I have to be honest. Your existence is so miserable, I don’t know why you go on. No it isn’t. I have accepted reality unlike many here who when reality hits will be unable to handle it. When josh Hawley is president with a republican congress and a raging pandemic i feel bad for you all that are not ready for it
February 20, 20214 yr 42 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: No it isn’t. I have accepted reality unlike many here who when reality hits will be unable to handle it. When josh Hawley is president with a republican congress and a raging pandemic i feel bad for you all that are not ready for it
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