February 20, 20215 yr If interested I was just reading this. Dismal. https://mailchi.mp/chesco/chester-county-health-department-covid-19-vaccine-update-4754150?e=57d47cf7ea
February 20, 20215 yr Weekly Sweden update. The downside of the 2nd wave looks to be in a plateau causing some worry that a third wave may hit. There may be other explanations though including the spreading to more remote areas as people move about engaging in winter fresh air activities (that of course include some time inside before and after). Restrictions remain steady. An article came out this week comparing this pandemic to historical outbreaks with the conclusion that the numbers are inline with other events in terms of relative Swedish results vs. other areas and countries. In summary, Sweden has fared far better than the vast majority of Europe and not as good as other Nordic countries (same as in earlier events ; btw - The gap with Denmark has gone from 5:1 down to 3:1 and closing for COVID deaths). Good to see we have some actual discussion allowed in here all of a sudden on things like herd immunity (when, how, etc.). Have to laugh at how we still have some laymen posters writing as if they are world renowned experts. This is a complicated subject both scientifically and also from a social policy perspective. That's just the nature of the beast.
February 20, 20215 yr 7 hours ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Ok $100 bet be to be paid to loser's favorite charity. Here is what i consider over, no more restrictions other than international travel overseas, full stadiums, no more masks or social distancing, border open with Canada so sports is totally back to normal, Covid deaths near zero. Or the CDC saying pandemic over Sure end of the year https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/us/politics/coronavirus-vaccine.html With Vaccine Delay, Biden Warns of Uncertain End to Pandemic On a visit to a vaccine manufacturing" plant in Michigan, President Biden said the nation could be "approaching normalcy” by the end of the year, but said new virus variants could slow progress. I'm referring to an actual objective WHO declaration, not your goofy subjective one. Masks will still be here for winter. I've said this a hundred times. Suck it up, it's a piece of cloth not a F'ing anchor you big baby.
February 20, 20215 yr I've been analyzing the new infection statistics and if the U.S. (and rest of the world, to an extent) continues at this pace, we should see drastic reductions in new infection rates by the end of March and by the end of April, new infection rates should be down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2020. The U.S. is already down over 60% in new infection rates since its peak in mid January. 60 million people have been vaccinated plus another 28 million or so infected. That's close to 100 million people that have (at least) some form of resistance to the virus; meaning that true herd immunity should already be "working" to an extent. And true herd immunity works exponentially, meaning the drop in new infections should come rapidly. This is an educated guess on my part (done by statistical research) but if I'm correct, we should be almost out of this by the end of April. We shall see.
February 20, 20215 yr 4 minutes ago, Ace Nova said: I've been analyzing the new infection statistics and if the U.S. (and rest of the world, to an extent) continues at this pace, we should see drastic reductions in new infection rates by the end of March and by the end of April, new infection rates should be down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2020. The U.S. is already down over 60% in new infection rates since its peak in mid January. 60 million people have been vaccinated plus another 28 million or so infected. That's close to 100 million people that have (at least) some form of resistance to the virus; meaning that true herd immunity should already be "working" to an extent. And true herd immunity works exponentially, meaning the drop in new infections should come rapidly. This is an educated guess on my part (done by statistical research) but if I'm correct, we should be almost out of this by the end of April. We shall see. One thing to keep in consideration, we really can't trust infection rates from the beginning of the pandemic. Testing was virtually non-existent so numbers were probably much much higher. I've been watching the death count since that will likely be a much more accurate metric to compare how we are doing vs how we did in the past. The drop in those numbers are also encouraging:
February 20, 20215 yr You might be able to infer something based on the % of positive tests BUT you have to look at who was being tested.
February 20, 20215 yr 3 minutes ago, paco said: One thing to keep in consideration, we really can't trust infection rates from the beginning of the pandemic. Testing was virtually non-existent so numbers were probably much much higher. I've been watching the death count since that will likely be a much more accurate metric to compare how we are doing vs how we did in the past. The drop in those numbers are also encouraging: I agree. Also, keep in mind that the current "death rates" are from people who were likely infected 2-4 weeks ago (closer to the "peak" of new infection rates, meaning that the death rates in a few weeks should also be drastically less. (And when I mean "drastically less" it should look like a "cliff" on that graph.)
February 20, 20215 yr 38 minutes ago, Ace Nova said: I've been analyzing the new infection statistics and if the U.S. (and rest of the world, to an extent) continues at this pace, we should see drastic reductions in new infection rates by the end of March and by the end of April, new infection rates should be down to levels not seen since the beginning of 2020. The U.S. is already down over 60% in new infection rates since its peak in mid January. 60 million people have been vaccinated plus another 28 million or so infected. That's close to 100 million people that have (at least) some form of resistance to the virus; meaning that true herd immunity should already be "working" to an extent. And true herd immunity works exponentially, meaning the drop in new infections should come rapidly. This is an educated guess on my part (done by statistical research) but if I'm correct, we should be almost out of this by the end of April. We shall see. The issue I see globally is the WHO dragging their feet to declare an end just as they did to declare it a pandemic in March. To be fair though, other countries will significantly lag in rollout as well, which complicates things, but by and large, we'll at least be on track domestically to loosen the bulk of restrictions by late spring or early summer.
February 20, 20215 yr And I'll also say something to the credit of those in charge of the vaccine rollout thus far, while the tendency to blame the previous administration for any issues was always present, I don't know that it's been as big of a disaster nationally as it was initially painted as. I know patience is difficult in times like these but it was never realistic to expect home runs in all our at bats when it came to distribution. So all things considered, I give the team in charge of it since November a C or C+. Could it have been better? Of course. Was it an unmitigated disaster? Not even close. It easily could've been much worse. Don't believe me? Refer to the botched roll out of approved test kits this time a year ago.
February 20, 20215 yr 2 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said: I'm referring to an actual objective WHO declaration, not your goofy subjective one. Masks will still be here for winter. I've said this a hundred times. Suck it up, it's a piece of cloth not a F'ing anchor you big baby. Yeah that’s not happening
February 20, 20215 yr Good article on reaching herd immunity. Shows how different variables affect the curves of natural and vaccine initiated immunity. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html
February 20, 20215 yr 4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: Good article on reaching herd immunity. Shows how different variables affect the curves of natural and vaccine initiated immunity. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html There is no doubt that will happen, all it takes is one bad mutation and it is a minimum another year of this on top of the rest of this year "There’s a chance a mutation could lead to a version of the virus that doesn’t respond to existing immunity, leading us to start the journey to herd immunity all over again".
February 20, 20215 yr 1 minute ago, Joe Shades 73 said: There is no doubt that will happen, all it takes is one bad mutation and it is a minimum another year of this on top of the rest of this year "There’s a chance a mutation could lead to a version of the virus that doesn’t respond to existing immunity, leading us to start the journey to herd immunity all over again". Oh ok. Hmm, yea I guess it could mutate, I hadn't thought of it that way. Good thing you brought it up.
February 20, 20215 yr 5 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: Oh ok. Hmm, yea I guess it could mutate, I hadn't thought of it that way. Good thing you brought it up. Not the point.
February 20, 20215 yr Some of you live in this fantasy land where the pandemic is over, the Republicans party is dead and Trump is prison. None of those things are reality. Be great if if was true but will not happen. Deal with the terrible reality.
February 20, 20215 yr 1 hour ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Some of you live in this fantasy land where the pandemic is over, the Republicans party is dead and Trump is prison. None of those things are reality. Be great if if was true but will not happen. Deal with the terrible reality. I have to be honest. Your existence is so miserable, I don’t know why you go on.
February 20, 20215 yr 6 minutes ago, vikas83 said: I have to be honest. Your existence is so miserable, I don’t know why you go on. No it isn’t. I have accepted reality unlike many here who when reality hits will be unable to handle it. When josh Hawley is president with a republican congress and a raging pandemic i feel bad for you all that are not ready for it
February 20, 20215 yr 42 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: No it isn’t. I have accepted reality unlike many here who when reality hits will be unable to handle it. When josh Hawley is president with a republican congress and a raging pandemic i feel bad for you all that are not ready for it
February 20, 20215 yr Shades your best bet is to YOLO all your cash into SLV - margin the hell out of it if you can - and cash in the tendies to live out the rest of your short life in luxury. If you don't do that you're a sucker.
February 20, 20215 yr The end of this decade will be worse than now we will look back as these being the good old days compared to then!! someone mentioned fear of fascism, top that off with a pandemic with mutant variants killing everyone
February 20, 20215 yr 7 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said: And I'll also say something to the credit of those in charge of the vaccine rollout thus far, while the tendency to blame the previous administration for any issues was always present, I don't know that it's been as big of a disaster nationally as it was initially painted as. I know patience is difficult in times like these but it was never realistic to expect home runs in all our at bats when it came to distribution. So all things considered, I give the team in charge of it since November a C or C+. Could it have been better? Of course. Was it an unmitigated disaster? Not even close. It easily could've been much worse. Don't believe me? Refer to the botched roll out of approved test kits this time a year ago. No. When you have national and state emergencies there’s already a plan. Regardless of which party is in charge. Saw it coming. I realize it’s novel. We would have failed Trump or Biden. Keep your eye on the ball. I do appreciate your insight of course Always have. No one needs to take sides against a virus that’s killing people. I’m saddened after what history we’ve already been thru we’re no closer. Just more divisive. This country has planned for much worse. I’m Maybe I Just have the winter blues. We will get there. Hell of a ride. If I get sick a day before I can get vaccinated-well. You don’t want me posting about that.
February 20, 20215 yr 1 minute ago, DiPros said: No. When you have national and state emergencies there’s already a plan. Regardless of which party is in charge. Saw it coming. I realize it’s novel. We would have failed Trump or Biden. Keep your eye on the ball. I do appreciate your insight of course Always have. No one needs to take sides against a virus that’s killing people. I’m saddened after what history we’ve already been thru we’re no closer. Just more divisive. This country has planned for much worse. I’m Maybe I Just have the winter blues. We will get there. Hell of a ride. If I get sick a day before I can get vaccinated-well. You don’t want me posting about that. Only going to get worse in every way, accept it and you will have no more blues
February 20, 20215 yr 27 minutes ago, RPeeteRules said: Should I be like WE and pretend everything will be fine?
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